Frales EP Wrote:Minnesota at Michigan.....it finally happens!
I'm going to be at that game, and I'd be shocked if Minnesota won for a few reasons:
1) Michigan hasn't lost at home since 2002 Iowa and was particularly dominant at home last year (35-21 over OSU, 38-0 over Notre Dame, 31-3 over Purdue, and 4 blowouts against Illinois, Indiana, Central Michigan, and Houston).
2) 02 Iowa was the only homecoming game Michigan has lost in 30-some years.
3) The new 3-4 defense is supposedly stronger against the run. This puts Woodley at an OLB position. Shazor will probably also be more keyed towards the run if the MINN passing game hasn't proven itself. Marlin Jackson is back at CB, so Ellerson will have trouble being open all day. MINN WRs are underated, but losing Hosack and Utecht will hurt even w/ that one former JuCo guy coming back from injury.
4) If Gutz plays like he's able to then he'll have a big game. We'll probably run A LOT of screen plays again (remember the damage CP did last year) with the occasionally long-bomb to Edwards or Avant. Those two plays KILLED your defense in the second half last year.
My prediction right now is 42-21..... Maroney and Barber will still rack up about 200 yards (def not 404, again), but only if Cupito can be reasonably effective, too, b/c otherwise Michigan will just load the box.
We'll see, though....