More and more I'm beginning to believe the XII is here to stay. It seems they are much sturdier than the PAC and possibly on par with the ACC. I do think the ACC's remaining core (Clemson, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia) wants to remain together. Throw in 25+ year members Georgia Tech and Florida St and I think they're safe UNLESS the B1G and SEC choose to take them apart and pay big dollars.

I think we end up with the SEC, B1G, and XII. The ACC is split amongst the 3 conferences and the PAC is split amongst the B1G and XII.

SEC
West: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Texas A&M
South: Alabama, Auburn, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
North: Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech
East: Clemson, Georgia, Florida, Florida St, South Carolina

B1G
West: California, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington
Central: Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
North: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Purdue
East: Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Penn St, Rutgers, Virginia

XII
West: Arizona, Arizona St, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Utah
East: Baylor, Miami, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia
* Notre Dame as non-football member

Left out: Washington St, Oregon St, Wake Forest, Boston College

EDIT:

To continue downward...

MWC
West: Fresno St, Hawaii, Oregon St, San Diego St, San Jose St, UNLV, Washington St
Mountain: Air Force, Boise St, Colorado St, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah St, Wyoming
* BYU as non-football member (or else stays in WCC)

AAC
West: Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, Navy^, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa
East: Army^, Boston College, Central Florida, East Carolina, South Florida, Temple, Wake Forest
^ Football-only (never scheduled as cross-division game; retains non-conference matchup at end of season)
* Wichita St as non-football member

(08-13-2020 11:58 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  More and more I'm beginning to believe the XII is here to stay. It seems they are much sturdier than the PAC and possibly on par with the ACC. I do think the ACC's remaining core (Clemson, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia) wants to remain together. Throw in 25+ year members Georgia Tech and Florida St and I think they're safe UNLESS the B1G and SEC choose to take them apart and pay big dollars.

I think we end up with the SEC, B1G, and XII. The ACC is split amongst the 3 conferences and the PAC is split amongst the B1G and XII.

SEC
West: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Texas A&M
South: Alabama, Auburn, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
North: Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech
East: Clemson, Georgia, Florida, Florida St, South Carolina

B1G
West: California, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington
Central: Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
North: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Purdue
East: Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Penn St, Rutgers, Virginia

XII
West: Arizona, Arizona St, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Utah
East: Baylor, Miami, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia
* Notre Dame as non-football member

Left out: Washington St, Oregon St, Wake Forest, Boston College

EDIT:

To continue downward...

MWC
West: Fresno St, Hawaii, Oregon St, San Diego St, San Jose St, UNLV, Washington St
Mountain: Air Force, Boise St, Colorado St, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah St, Wyoming
* BYU as non-football member (or else stays in WCC)

AAC
West: Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, Navy^, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa
East: Army^, Boston College, Central Florida, East Carolina, South Florida, Temple, Wake Forest
^ Football-only (never scheduled as cross-division game; retains non-conference matchup at end of season)
* Wichita St as non-football member

That 56 would work. Repositioning of a few schools might need to take place but overall it's a solid concept.

Not that it has a chance of happening but I'd like to see the breakdown go this way:

Duke, Wake Forest -> Big East

UNC, UVa -> Big Ten

VT, NCSU -> SEC

Miami, Boston College, Florida State, Syracuse, Pitt, Clemson, Louisville, Georgia Tech -> Big 12

The states of Virginia and North Carolina would be the meeting points of the Big Ten and SEC. Boston College, Miami, Pitt and West Virginia will play more games against each other. Notre Dame would continue playing in the Northeast and Southeast but skip over the mid-Atlantic states. It's not optimal for either of the gaining conference but it'd get the job done of consolidation.

(04-14-2021 08:16 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Not that it has a chance of happening but I'd like to see the breakdown go this way:

Duke, Wake Forest -> Big East

UNC, UVa -> Big Ten

VT, NCSU -> SEC

Miami, Boston College, Florida State, Syracuse, Pitt, Clemson, Louisville, Georgia Tech -> Big 12

The states of Virginia and North Carolina would be the meeting points of the Big Ten and SEC. Boston College, Miami, Pitt and West Virginia will play more games against each other. Notre Dame would continue playing in the Northeast and Southeast but skip over the mid-Atlantic states. It's not optimal for either of the gaining conference but it'd get the job done of consolidation.

I've considered that option but it does pose difficulties. Duke and North Carolina were insistent upon staying together when seeking emergency options after Maryland's departure.

There are ways to make this work for you but it requires more moving pieces.

Duke, North Carolina, Virginia to the Big 10 and Nebraska to the Big 12.
N.C. State and Virginia Tech to the SEC.

IMO this would be the simplest division that would be possible, but Nebraska likely would not go for it.

Requiring no school to move puts the Big 10 at 18. Add Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, and Pitt (assuming N.D. still wants independence).

However what this does is to gut the Big 12's potential future value as the SEC would take the aforementioned 2 schools and pick up F.S.U. & Clemson resolving scheduling issues for South Carolina and Florida and solidifying it's grip on Southeastern branding.

Now the Big 12 has these options: Miami, Georgia Tech, Louisville as without Pitt there is no linkage to Syracuse or B.C..

Now if Notre Dame cast in fully with Texas and Oklahoma they would bring B.C. & Syracuse with them. But if Notre Dame casts in fully anywhere why not do it for the most money?

The problem with 16 is that Duke and UNC don't stay together unless they head to the SEC or Nebraska moves back to the Big 12 and if the SEC and Big 10 move to 18 there isn't enough value for the Big 12.

Now if we move to a P4 Champs only and ND feels compelled to join a conference then you might work things out with Virginia and N.D to the Big 10 and Duke and North Carolina to the SEC.

Then the Big 12 has Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech Miami, N.C. State, and Virginia Tech, Pitt, and Louisville to add. That lineup has much more appeal.

(04-14-2021 11:58 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-14-2021 08:16 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Not that it has a chance of happening but I'd like to see the breakdown go this way:

Duke, Wake Forest -> Big East

UNC, UVa -> Big Ten

VT, NCSU -> SEC

Miami, Boston College, Florida State, Syracuse, Pitt, Clemson, Louisville, Georgia Tech -> Big 12

The states of Virginia and North Carolina would be the meeting points of the Big Ten and SEC. Boston College, Miami, Pitt and West Virginia will play more games against each other. Notre Dame would continue playing in the Northeast and Southeast but skip over the mid-Atlantic states. It's not optimal for either of the gaining conference but it'd get the job done of consolidation.

I've considered that option but it does pose difficulties. Duke and North Carolina were insistent upon staying together when seeking emergency options after Maryland's departure.

There are ways to make this work for you but it requires more moving pieces.

Duke, North Carolina, Virginia to the Big 10 and Nebraska to the Big 12.
N.C. State and Virginia Tech to the SEC.

IMO this would be the simplest division that would be possible, but Nebraska likely would not go for it.

Requiring no school to move puts the Big 10 at 18. Add Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, and Pitt (assuming N.D. still wants independence).

However what this does is to gut the Big 12's potential future value as the SEC would take the aforementioned 2 schools and pick up F.S.U. & Clemson resolving scheduling issues for South Carolina and Florida and solidifying it's grip on Southeastern branding.

Now the Big 12 has these options: Miami, Georgia Tech, Louisville as without Pitt there is no linkage to Syracuse or B.C..

Now if Notre Dame cast in fully with Texas and Oklahoma they would bring B.C. & Syracuse with them. But if Notre Dame casts in fully anywhere why not do it for the most money?

The problem with 16 is that Duke and UNC don't stay together unless they head to the SEC or Nebraska moves back to the Big 12 and if the SEC and Big 10 move to 18 there isn't enough value for the Big 12.

Now if we move to a P4 Champs only and ND feels compelled to join a conference then you might work things out with Virginia and N.D to the Big 10 and Duke and North Carolina to the SEC.

Then the Big 12 has Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech Miami, N.C. State, and Virginia Tech, Pitt, and Louisville to add. That lineup has much more appeal.

If the Big 12 were to take back Nebraska then they could go all the way to 20 and Wake Forest would still be part of the group.

Big XX West

Nebraska, Iowa State, Kansas State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Texas, TCU, Baylor

Big XX East

Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Louisville, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami

Notre Dame would have a pick of the litter with a potential mix of Texas, Oklahoma or Nebraska at one end and then Pitt, Wake and Miami or Georgia Tech at the other. There will be time when they'll have to play a Kansas State maybe once every six years or so. But the divisions line up pretty much North and South.

(04-14-2021 03:02 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(04-14-2021 11:58 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-14-2021 08:16 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Not that it has a chance of happening but I'd like to see the breakdown go this way:

Duke, Wake Forest -> Big East

UNC, UVa -> Big Ten

VT, NCSU -> SEC

Miami, Boston College, Florida State, Syracuse, Pitt, Clemson, Louisville, Georgia Tech -> Big 12

The states of Virginia and North Carolina would be the meeting points of the Big Ten and SEC. Boston College, Miami, Pitt and West Virginia will play more games against each other. Notre Dame would continue playing in the Northeast and Southeast but skip over the mid-Atlantic states. It's not optimal for either of the gaining conference but it'd get the job done of consolidation.

I've considered that option but it does pose difficulties. Duke and North Carolina were insistent upon staying together when seeking emergency options after Maryland's departure.

There are ways to make this work for you but it requires more moving pieces.

Duke, North Carolina, Virginia to the Big 10 and Nebraska to the Big 12.
N.C. State and Virginia Tech to the SEC.

IMO this would be the simplest division that would be possible, but Nebraska likely would not go for it.

Requiring no school to move puts the Big 10 at 18. Add Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, and Pitt (assuming N.D. still wants independence).

However what this does is to gut the Big 12's potential future value as the SEC would take the aforementioned 2 schools and pick up F.S.U. & Clemson resolving scheduling issues for South Carolina and Florida and solidifying it's grip on Southeastern branding.

Now the Big 12 has these options: Miami, Georgia Tech, Louisville as without Pitt there is no linkage to Syracuse or B.C..

Now if Notre Dame cast in fully with Texas and Oklahoma they would bring B.C. & Syracuse with them. But if Notre Dame casts in fully anywhere why not do it for the most money?

The problem with 16 is that Duke and UNC don't stay together unless they head to the SEC or Nebraska moves back to the Big 12 and if the SEC and Big 10 move to 18 there isn't enough value for the Big 12.

Now if we move to a P4 Champs only and ND feels compelled to join a conference then you might work things out with Virginia and N.D to the Big 10 and Duke and North Carolina to the SEC.

Then the Big 12 has Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech Miami, N.C. State, and Virginia Tech, Pitt, and Louisville to add. That lineup has much more appeal.

If the Big 12 were to take back Nebraska then they could go all the way to 20 and Wake Forest would still be part of the group.

Big XX West

Nebraska, Iowa State, Kansas State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Texas, TCU, Baylor

Big XX East

Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Louisville, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami

Notre Dame would have a pick of the litter with a potential mix of Texas, Oklahoma or Nebraska at one end and then Pitt, Wake and Miami or Georgia Tech at the other. There will be time when they'll have to play a Kansas State maybe once every six years or so. But the divisions line up pretty much North and South.

That may be better able to monetize itself. It's a helluva a market and the ACCN could become the East Divisions network while the LHN became the West Divisions network.

So your Big 10 would be:
Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Virginia
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Your SEC would be:
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri,
Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

That's not too bad.

(04-14-2021 03:02 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(04-14-2021 11:58 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-14-2021 08:16 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Not that it has a chance of happening but I'd like to see the breakdown go this way:

Duke, Wake Forest -> Big East

UNC, UVa -> Big Ten

VT, NCSU -> SEC

Miami, Boston College, Florida State, Syracuse, Pitt, Clemson, Louisville, Georgia Tech -> Big 12

The states of Virginia and North Carolina would be the meeting points of the Big Ten and SEC. Boston College, Miami, Pitt and West Virginia will play more games against each other. Notre Dame would continue playing in the Northeast and Southeast but skip over the mid-Atlantic states. It's not optimal for either of the gaining conference but it'd get the job done of consolidation.

I've considered that option but it does pose difficulties. Duke and North Carolina were insistent upon staying together when seeking emergency options after Maryland's departure.

There are ways to make this work for you but it requires more moving pieces.

Duke, North Carolina, Virginia to the Big 10 and Nebraska to the Big 12.
N.C. State and Virginia Tech to the SEC.

IMO this would be the simplest division that would be possible, but Nebraska likely would not go for it.

Requiring no school to move puts the Big 10 at 18. Add Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, and Pitt (assuming N.D. still wants independence).

However what this does is to gut the Big 12's potential future value as the SEC would take the aforementioned 2 schools and pick up F.S.U. & Clemson resolving scheduling issues for South Carolina and Florida and solidifying it's grip on Southeastern branding.

Now the Big 12 has these options: Miami, Georgia Tech, Louisville as without Pitt there is no linkage to Syracuse or B.C..

Now if Notre Dame cast in fully with Texas and Oklahoma they would bring B.C. & Syracuse with them. But if Notre Dame casts in fully anywhere why not do it for the most money?

The problem with 16 is that Duke and UNC don't stay together unless they head to the SEC or Nebraska moves back to the Big 12 and if the SEC and Big 10 move to 18 there isn't enough value for the Big 12.

Now if we move to a P4 Champs only and ND feels compelled to join a conference then you might work things out with Virginia and N.D to the Big 10 and Duke and North Carolina to the SEC.

Then the Big 12 has Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech Miami, N.C. State, and Virginia Tech, Pitt, and Louisville to add. That lineup has much more appeal.

If the Big 12 were to take back Nebraska then they could go all the way to 20 and Wake Forest would still be part of the group.

Big XX West

Nebraska, Iowa State, Kansas State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Texas, TCU, Baylor

Big XX East

Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Louisville, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami

Notre Dame would have a pick of the litter with a potential mix of Texas, Oklahoma or Nebraska at one end and then Pitt, Wake and Miami or Georgia Tech at the other. There will be time when they'll have to play a Kansas State maybe once every six years or so. But the divisions line up pretty much North and South.

I don't hate this at all but I'll give my go here with some slight modification. I prefer pods over large divisions but I am more in favor of divisionless.

B1G (24)
East: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St, Northwestern, Ohio St, Penn St, Purdue
North: Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah, Wisconsin
West: California, Oregon, Oregon St, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington St

SEC (20)
East: Duke, Florida St, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia
North: Kentucky, Maryland, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
South: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee
West: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Texas A&M

XX (20)
East: Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), North Carolina St, Wake Forest
North: Boston College, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, West Virginia
South: Baylor, Louisville, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
West: Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St

Independent: Notre Dame

Another option would be to build the SEC even more by shifting 4 schools from XX to SEC and adding 8 schools to XX from non-power ranks.

SEC (24)
East: Clemson, Duke, Florida St, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
South: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Tennessee
West: Arkansas, LSU, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt

XXIV (24)
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Memphis, North Carolina St, South Florida, Wake Forest
North: Boston College, Iowa St, Miami (FL), Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple, West Virginia
West: Baylor, BYU, Houston, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, SMU, TCU

(04-14-2021 03:26 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(04-14-2021 03:02 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(04-14-2021 11:58 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-14-2021 08:16 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Not that it has a chance of happening but I'd like to see the breakdown go this way:

Duke, Wake Forest -> Big East

UNC, UVa -> Big Ten

VT, NCSU -> SEC

Miami, Boston College, Florida State, Syracuse, Pitt, Clemson, Louisville, Georgia Tech -> Big 12

The states of Virginia and North Carolina would be the meeting points of the Big Ten and SEC. Boston College, Miami, Pitt and West Virginia will play more games against each other. Notre Dame would continue playing in the Northeast and Southeast but skip over the mid-Atlantic states. It's not optimal for either of the gaining conference but it'd get the job done of consolidation.

I've considered that option but it does pose difficulties. Duke and North Carolina were insistent upon staying together when seeking emergency options after Maryland's departure.

There are ways to make this work for you but it requires more moving pieces.

Duke, North Carolina, Virginia to the Big 10 and Nebraska to the Big 12.
N.C. State and Virginia Tech to the SEC.

IMO this would be the simplest division that would be possible, but Nebraska likely would not go for it.

Requiring no school to move puts the Big 10 at 18. Add Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, and Pitt (assuming N.D. still wants independence).

However what this does is to gut the Big 12's potential future value as the SEC would take the aforementioned 2 schools and pick up F.S.U. & Clemson resolving scheduling issues for South Carolina and Florida and solidifying it's grip on Southeastern branding.

Now the Big 12 has these options: Miami, Georgia Tech, Louisville as without Pitt there is no linkage to Syracuse or B.C..

Now if Notre Dame cast in fully with Texas and Oklahoma they would bring B.C. & Syracuse with them. But if Notre Dame casts in fully anywhere why not do it for the most money?

The problem with 16 is that Duke and UNC don't stay together unless they head to the SEC or Nebraska moves back to the Big 12 and if the SEC and Big 10 move to 18 there isn't enough value for the Big 12.

Now if we move to a P4 Champs only and ND feels compelled to join a conference then you might work things out with Virginia and N.D to the Big 10 and Duke and North Carolina to the SEC.

Then the Big 12 has Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech Miami, N.C. State, and Virginia Tech, Pitt, and Louisville to add. That lineup has much more appeal.

If the Big 12 were to take back Nebraska then they could go all the way to 20 and Wake Forest would still be part of the group.

Big XX West

Nebraska, Iowa State, Kansas State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Texas, TCU, Baylor

Big XX East

Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Louisville, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami

Notre Dame would have a pick of the litter with a potential mix of Texas, Oklahoma or Nebraska at one end and then Pitt, Wake and Miami or Georgia Tech at the other. There will be time when they'll have to play a Kansas State maybe once every six years or so. But the divisions line up pretty much North and South.

I don't hate this at all but I'll give my go here with some slight modification. I prefer pods over large divisions but I am more in favor of divisionless.

B1G (24)
East: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St, Northwestern, Ohio St, Penn St, Purdue
North: Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah, Wisconsin
West: California, Oregon, Oregon St, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington St

SEC (20)
East: Duke, Florida St, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia
North: Kentucky, Maryland, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
South: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee
West: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Texas A&M

XX (20)
East: Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), North Carolina St, Wake Forest
North: Boston College, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, West Virginia
South: Baylor, Louisville, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
West: Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St

Independent: Notre Dame

So, the SEC / Big 12 is Disney and the Big 10 is mostly FOX some Disney? If so it works. I'll play with a little in my head but it looks pretty sound to me.


Let's assume that there is a culling either due to NIL or naturally with contraction and that extremely less well funded programs may not make the cut. Now let's add to that the need to bring some power balance to the remaining 3 Power conferences and let's take a look at this:

Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia
Indiana, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, Minnesota, Missouri

Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech
Clemson, N.C. State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Louisville, Miami, Texas A&M

Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Baylor, Colorado, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Arizona, Arizona State, California Los Angeles, Southern Cal, Utah
California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington


Out: Boston College, Syracuse, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Washington State

Conference Semis. 4 team CFP (3 Champs 1 at Large & You Must Make the Finals of the a Conference to be considered so N.D. is all in.)

Step 1. ESPN has to secure the Big 12 rights in total. In order to do that, they have to nail down Oklahoma and offer something long term for the league. Additionally, they have to make up the 3rd tier gap between Texas and OU.

If additions were made then a conference wide network could be established. Structurally, you could just blend the ACC Network with the LHN. The key point here is that OU needs motivation to remain with the Big 12. As it stands, they would lock themselves into an inferior position compared to UT if they simply stayed with status quo whether that was with ESPN or not.

Step 2. The ACC would have to be parsed, but there's opportunity to make it happen. They key thing here is where does Notre Dame want to go? The reality is that there's quite a few schools that might follow them to whatever destination. Stability follows the economic giants...tends to anyway.

If Notre Dame could land a partial agreement with the Big 12 then what that league needs from the ACC is reduced overall. ND packs a punch.

Step 3. ESPN needs to curry favor with both the SEC and Big Ten. Disney wants more Big Ten content because it's the 2nd most popular product. Nonetheless, they need favor with the SEC as well as they have proven a loyal partner.

--------

Notre Dame goes to the Big 12 with full membership rights and a similar football arrangement. They agree to 6 games so that Disney may own 3 predictably every year. The other caveat is that Texas and Oklahoma are alternated on the schedule of ND every year. The other 5 games are rotated among a select few members. In other words, ND gives up the 6th game, but they don't have to play every member of this league unless they just want to. A few members suffer with that arrangement, but they are the usual suspects are just happy to have the money and stability.

Also added to the Big 12:

BYU- It gives Disney a nice Western outpost to schedule some decent games at night or on Friday evening.

Florida State, Miami, Clemson, Louisville, and Pittsburgh

The Big 12 rests with 16 full members and Notre Dame as a partial.

---------

Wake Forest joins the Big East, but ESPN gives them a football-only membership in the AAC. Surprisingly, Wake leaves voluntarily because the football game is too much for them. The Big East is more their speed. The AAC gets back to 12 football schools.

---------

UNC and Duke make a good combo in the SEC. Additionally, Georgia Tech and NC State come along. The SEC has functional control over the state of NC. They also add 3 AAU schools and a budding school in NC State. The Triangle stays together and spares any political fallout.

The SEC rests at 18.

---------

The Big Ten adds Virginia, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, and Colorado.

I'm including Colorado here because the money in the Big Ten is too good whereas the PAC 12 is probably going to have serious issues moving forward. CU could move now and save a lot of heartache. The Big Ten should be happy with this collection.

ESPN League:

ACC Division:
Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest


SEC East Division:
Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt


SEC West Division:
Alabama, Arkansas, Baylor, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas, Texas A&M


Big 8 Division:
Brigham Young, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech


Big East Division:
Boston College, Iowa State, Louisville, Miami, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia


That's Five 8 team divisions, with a playoff that consists of 5 divisional champs and 3 at large.

If NIL or no caps on stipends causes defections you adjust to 7 member divisions or change the number of divisions accordingly.

All 12 games are played within the league with 7 divisional games & 2 permanent rivals and 3 rotating games.

Now here we have the fantasy that way too many people feel we should have. We realign, pay everyone the same and nobody gets left behind.

I'm afraid the fantasy ends there. Pay is not going to be equal. Not everybody is going to stay in after NIL and No Cap Stipends pass the Supreme Court. There truly are only a few schools that can make the Big 10 or SEC. The PAC is too remote to be either a realignment option, or to poach teams in the Central Time Zone. The ACC is surrounded by the 2 best paid and is behind the Big 12 in revenue. Texas and Oklahoma together lack only 300,000,000 in value of being equal to the entire ACC.

The issue will be does ESPN land all Big 12 rights, or just the rights of the schools they want most to have. If the former realignment from the ACC to the Big 10, SEC, or Big 12 could happen whether now or in 2035. If it's the latter then the ACC likely survives, but remains distant in revenue.

How realignment happens from here has too many complicating factors to make a reasonable guess. Who will stay in if the SCOTUS cases pass? Will Texas and Oklahoma want as much revenue as they can grab or are they content with what they have and their prospects for adding more in 2024 with a renewed Big 12 contract? If most of the Big 10 and SEC remain intact and hit revenues between 65 to 72 million per school in media payouts how much pressure does that put on the ACC schools who have to compete with them in football? How tempted would the Basketball first schools be to try to cash in on what their neighbors are making? And of course what are ESPN's plans for the Big 12?

There are a lot of variables, but it's pretty clear that major change is coming to the game of college football, and that we are likely to have fewer than the 65 current P5 members and likely less than 5 P conferences. So as much as we like to hold onto the familiar we are living in wholly unfamiliar times and the sport of college football will reflect that uncertainty and the happy families of our present conferences will be a memory like the nuclear family of the 50's and 60's.

(04-17-2021 08:46 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Now here we have the fantasy that way too many people feel we should have. We realign, pay everyone the same and nobody gets left behind.

I'm afraid the fantasy ends there. Pay is not going to be equal. Not everybody is going to stay in after NIL and No Cap Stipends pass the Supreme Court. There truly are only a few schools that can make the Big 10 or SEC. The PAC is too remote to be either a realignment option, or to poach teams in the Central Time Zone. The ACC is surrounded by the 2 best paid and is behind the Big 12 in revenue. Texas and Oklahoma together lack only 300,000,000 in value of being equal to the entire ACC.

The issue will be does ESPN land all Big 12 rights, or just the rights of the schools they want most to have. If the former realignment from the ACC to the Big 10, SEC, or Big 12 could happen whether now or in 2035. If it's the latter then the ACC likely survives, but remains distant in revenue.

How realignment happens from here has too many complicating factors to make a reasonable guess. Who will stay in if the SCOTUS cases pass? Will Texas and Oklahoma want as much revenue as they can grab or are they content with what they have and their prospects for adding more in 2024 with a renewed Big 12 contract? If most of the Big 10 and SEC remain intact and hit revenues between 65 to 72 million per school in media payouts how much pressure does that put on the ACC schools who have to compete with them in football? How tempted would the Basketball first schools be to try to cash in on what their neighbors are making? And of course what are ESPN's plans for the Big 12?

There are a lot of variables, but it's pretty clear that major change is coming to the game of college football, and that we are likely to have fewer than the 65 current P5 members and likely less than 5 P conferences. So as much as we like to hold onto the familiar we are living in wholly unfamiliar times and the sport of college football will reflect that uncertainty and the happy families of our present conferences will be a memory like the nuclear family of the 50's and 60's.

I agree with your earlier statement that a Supreme Court ruling in favor of the athletes will be a huge game changer. Separation from the NCAA will almost certainly have to happen.

The Power schools will be looking to make up some lost revenue as well which means the current structure of basketball likely changes because it's the quickest sport to utilize to make up some gaps.

The wildcard is what does all of that do to media contracts? Certain leagues may not exist anymore once players are getting paid. All it takes is a few schools deciding to drop down for the sake of reduced costs and entities like the ACC, Big 12, or PAC 12 may not technically exist any longer. I tend to think most of those schools will make an effort, but certainly not all. When these entities more or less dissolve, what then as far as media rights? The current media contracts were drawn up under a very different reality...one that allowed schools to skimp on this major expense.

The only model that's not under threat here is the Ivy League model where no one gets a scholarship. I have a feeling that a lot of schools will opt for that and hope for the best. Thus, they will dissolve their relationship with their current conference.

Meanwhile, I think you'll see the richest leagues impose an internal salary structure. Those entities will, without a wholesale merging of schools, have the most immediate authority when the NCAA is neutered once and for all. The SEC and the Big Ten will try to preserve as much of what they are familiar with as possible. Some changes will be inevitable, but I think the competition between them may actually increase.

No league will any longer have amateurism as a binding principle or competitive restriction. Now, in a more pure way, it will be about paying bills and staying on top.

I think it's unavoidable that certain sports will be dropped. When athletes are getting paid, and it won't just be the football or basketball players, then I think it will be very hard to justify some expenditures. Perhaps you'll just see some sports go non-scholarship and become purely amateur? That way, you can avoid dropping them altogether. The athletes will know ahead of time that there's no compensation for most sports. If the schools don't do it that way then they'll have to justify why the football players are getting paid and the women's tennis team isn't.

Sponsoring a sport and paying an employee are two different legal premises so I don't think Title IX will have an impact unless they try to maintain the status quo.

EDIT - I would also say that dropping roster numbers to control costs will be a thing. There's really no reason to offer 85 scholarships if you have to pay them all on top of that. I think the NFL roster limit is more like 56 or something? If the schools have to pay the players then they get to decide how many players there will be.

(04-19-2021 04:17 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(04-17-2021 08:46 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Now here we have the fantasy that way too many people feel we should have. We realign, pay everyone the same and nobody gets left behind.

I'm afraid the fantasy ends there. Pay is not going to be equal. Not everybody is going to stay in after NIL and No Cap Stipends pass the Supreme Court. There truly are only a few schools that can make the Big 10 or SEC. The PAC is too remote to be either a realignment option, or to poach teams in the Central Time Zone. The ACC is surrounded by the 2 best paid and is behind the Big 12 in revenue. Texas and Oklahoma together lack only 300,000,000 in value of being equal to the entire ACC.

The issue will be does ESPN land all Big 12 rights, or just the rights of the schools they want most to have. If the former realignment from the ACC to the Big 10, SEC, or Big 12 could happen whether now or in 2035. If it's the latter then the ACC likely survives, but remains distant in revenue.

How realignment happens from here has too many complicating factors to make a reasonable guess. Who will stay in if the SCOTUS cases pass? Will Texas and Oklahoma want as much revenue as they can grab or are they content with what they have and their prospects for adding more in 2024 with a renewed Big 12 contract? If most of the Big 10 and SEC remain intact and hit revenues between 65 to 72 million per school in media payouts how much pressure does that put on the ACC schools who have to compete with them in football? How tempted would the Basketball first schools be to try to cash in on what their neighbors are making? And of course what are ESPN's plans for the Big 12?

There are a lot of variables, but it's pretty clear that major change is coming to the game of college football, and that we are likely to have fewer than the 65 current P5 members and likely less than 5 P conferences. So as much as we like to hold onto the familiar we are living in wholly unfamiliar times and the sport of college football will reflect that uncertainty and the happy families of our present conferences will be a memory like the nuclear family of the 50's and 60's.

I agree with your earlier statement that a Supreme Court ruling in favor of the athletes will be a huge game changer. Separation from the NCAA will almost certainly have to happen.

The Power schools will be looking to make up some lost revenue as well which means the current structure of basketball likely changes because it's the quickest sport to utilize to make up some gaps.

The wildcard is what does all of that do to media contracts? Certain leagues may not exist anymore once players are getting paid. All it takes is a few schools deciding to drop down for the sake of reduced costs and entities like the ACC, Big 12, or PAC 12 may not technically exist any longer. I tend to think most of those schools will make an effort, but certainly not all. When these entities more or less dissolve, what then as far as media rights? The current media contracts were drawn up under a very different reality...one that allowed schools to skimp on this major expense.

The only model that's not under threat here is the Ivy League model where no one gets a scholarship. I have a feeling that a lot of schools will opt for that and hope for the best. Thus, they will dissolve their relationship with their current conference.

Meanwhile, I think you'll see the richest leagues impose an internal salary structure. Those entities will, without a wholesale merging of schools, have the most immediate authority when the NCAA is neutered once and for all. The SEC and the Big Ten will try to preserve as much of what they are familiar with as possible. Some changes will be inevitable, but I think the competition between them may actually increase.

No league will any longer have amateurism as a binding principle or competitive restriction. Now, in a more pure way, it will be about paying bills and staying on top.

I think it's unavoidable that certain sports will be dropped. When athletes are getting paid, and it won't just be the football or basketball players, then I think it will be very hard to justify some expenditures. Perhaps you'll just see some sports go non-scholarship and become purely amateur? That way, you can avoid dropping them altogether. The athletes will know ahead of time that there's no compensation for most sports. If the schools don't do it that way then they'll have to justify why the football players are getting paid and the women's tennis team isn't.

Sponsoring a sport and paying an employee are two different legal premises so I don't think Title IX will have an impact unless they try to maintain the status quo.

EDIT - I would also say that dropping roster numbers to control costs will be a thing. There's really no reason to offer 85 scholarships if you have to pay them all on top of that. I think the NFL roster limit is more like 56 or something? If the schools have to pay the players then they get to decide how many players there will be.

College revenue has been one tent the corporate nose couldn't quite get under. NIL will get that nose under the tent and then the rest of pay for play will create the demand for corporate sponsorship of non revenue sports. They gave corporate research grants but teams of university lawyers had to pour through the details before schools would agree.

Here they mainline into the colleges through NIL and through pay for play create a need for non revenues to be supported like Olympic Sports are in this country, corporately.

"The rights of athletes" is merely a device to their corporate backers to gain control over higher education period and make it subservient to the corporate agenda. Very soon there will be anything left in this country that any of us have any control over.

Why sports? People watch them. Why Colleges? Not all of them are controlled as to what they teach. Thanks to the COVID Vaccine they Big Pharma corporations are finding a way to control the population, legally and perhaps physically. None of this ends well. The best thing our Universities could do is to move strictly back to amateurism. It's the only way they will keep any freedom or really even enough state control to remain subservient to the people of the states they represent.

But I don't think we head back in the right direction because we have become addicted to the money.

(04-19-2021 09:19 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-19-2021 04:17 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(04-17-2021 08:46 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Now here we have the fantasy that way too many people feel we should have. We realign, pay everyone the same and nobody gets left behind.

I'm afraid the fantasy ends there. Pay is not going to be equal. Not everybody is going to stay in after NIL and No Cap Stipends pass the Supreme Court. There truly are only a few schools that can make the Big 10 or SEC. The PAC is too remote to be either a realignment option, or to poach teams in the Central Time Zone. The ACC is surrounded by the 2 best paid and is behind the Big 12 in revenue. Texas and Oklahoma together lack only 300,000,000 in value of being equal to the entire ACC.

The issue will be does ESPN land all Big 12 rights, or just the rights of the schools they want most to have. If the former realignment from the ACC to the Big 10, SEC, or Big 12 could happen whether now or in 2035. If it's the latter then the ACC likely survives, but remains distant in revenue.

How realignment happens from here has too many complicating factors to make a reasonable guess. Who will stay in if the SCOTUS cases pass? Will Texas and Oklahoma want as much revenue as they can grab or are they content with what they have and their prospects for adding more in 2024 with a renewed Big 12 contract? If most of the Big 10 and SEC remain intact and hit revenues between 65 to 72 million per school in media payouts how much pressure does that put on the ACC schools who have to compete with them in football? How tempted would the Basketball first schools be to try to cash in on what their neighbors are making? And of course what are ESPN's plans for the Big 12?

There are a lot of variables, but it's pretty clear that major change is coming to the game of college football, and that we are likely to have fewer than the 65 current P5 members and likely less than 5 P conferences. So as much as we like to hold onto the familiar we are living in wholly unfamiliar times and the sport of college football will reflect that uncertainty and the happy families of our present conferences will be a memory like the nuclear family of the 50's and 60's.

I agree with your earlier statement that a Supreme Court ruling in favor of the athletes will be a huge game changer. Separation from the NCAA will almost certainly have to happen.

The Power schools will be looking to make up some lost revenue as well which means the current structure of basketball likely changes because it's the quickest sport to utilize to make up some gaps.

The wildcard is what does all of that do to media contracts? Certain leagues may not exist anymore once players are getting paid. All it takes is a few schools deciding to drop down for the sake of reduced costs and entities like the ACC, Big 12, or PAC 12 may not technically exist any longer. I tend to think most of those schools will make an effort, but certainly not all. When these entities more or less dissolve, what then as far as media rights? The current media contracts were drawn up under a very different reality...one that allowed schools to skimp on this major expense.

The only model that's not under threat here is the Ivy League model where no one gets a scholarship. I have a feeling that a lot of schools will opt for that and hope for the best. Thus, they will dissolve their relationship with their current conference.

Meanwhile, I think you'll see the richest leagues impose an internal salary structure. Those entities will, without a wholesale merging of schools, have the most immediate authority when the NCAA is neutered once and for all. The SEC and the Big Ten will try to preserve as much of what they are familiar with as possible. Some changes will be inevitable, but I think the competition between them may actually increase.

No league will any longer have amateurism as a binding principle or competitive restriction. Now, in a more pure way, it will be about paying bills and staying on top.

I think it's unavoidable that certain sports will be dropped. When athletes are getting paid, and it won't just be the football or basketball players, then I think it will be very hard to justify some expenditures. Perhaps you'll just see some sports go non-scholarship and become purely amateur? That way, you can avoid dropping them altogether. The athletes will know ahead of time that there's no compensation for most sports. If the schools don't do it that way then they'll have to justify why the football players are getting paid and the women's tennis team isn't.

Sponsoring a sport and paying an employee are two different legal premises so I don't think Title IX will have an impact unless they try to maintain the status quo.

EDIT - I would also say that dropping roster numbers to control costs will be a thing. There's really no reason to offer 85 scholarships if you have to pay them all on top of that. I think the NFL roster limit is more like 56 or something? If the schools have to pay the players then they get to decide how many players there will be.

College revenue has been one tent the corporate nose couldn't quite get under. NIL will get that nose under the tent and then the rest of pay for play will create the demand for corporate sponsorship of non revenue sports. They gave corporate research grants but teams of university lawyers had to pour through the details before schools would agree.

Here they mainline into the colleges through NIL and through pay for play create a need for non revenues to be supported like Olympic Sports are in this country, corporately.

"The rights of athletes" is merely a device to their corporate backers to gain control over higher education period and make it subservient to the corporate agenda. Very soon there will be anything left in this country that any of us have any control over.

Why sports? People watch them. Why Colleges? Not all of them are controlled as to what they teach. Thanks to the COVID Vaccine they Big Pharma corporations are finding a way to control the population, legally and perhaps physically. None of this ends well. The best thing our Universities could do is to move strictly back to amateurism. It's the only way they will keep any freedom or really even enough state control to remain subservient to the people of the states they represent.

But I don't think we head back in the right direction because we have become addicted to the money.

Very scary thought JR, but I can definitely see this being the case.

(04-14-2021 03:18 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-14-2021 03:02 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(04-14-2021 11:58 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-14-2021 08:16 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Not that it has a chance of happening but I'd like to see the breakdown go this way:

Duke, Wake Forest -> Big East

UNC, UVa -> Big Ten

VT, NCSU -> SEC

Miami, Boston College, Florida State, Syracuse, Pitt, Clemson, Louisville, Georgia Tech -> Big 12

The states of Virginia and North Carolina would be the meeting points of the Big Ten and SEC. Boston College, Miami, Pitt and West Virginia will play more games against each other. Notre Dame would continue playing in the Northeast and Southeast but skip over the mid-Atlantic states. It's not optimal for either of the gaining conference but it'd get the job done of consolidation.

I've considered that option but it does pose difficulties. Duke and North Carolina were insistent upon staying together when seeking emergency options after Maryland's departure.

There are ways to make this work for you but it requires more moving pieces.

Duke, North Carolina, Virginia to the Big 10 and Nebraska to the Big 12.
N.C. State and Virginia Tech to the SEC.

IMO this would be the simplest division that would be possible, but Nebraska likely would not go for it.

Requiring no school to move puts the Big 10 at 18. Add Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, and Pitt (assuming N.D. still wants independence).

However what this does is to gut the Big 12's potential future value as the SEC would take the aforementioned 2 schools and pick up F.S.U. & Clemson resolving scheduling issues for South Carolina and Florida and solidifying it's grip on Southeastern branding.

Now the Big 12 has these options: Miami, Georgia Tech, Louisville as without Pitt there is no linkage to Syracuse or B.C..

Now if Notre Dame cast in fully with Texas and Oklahoma they would bring B.C. & Syracuse with them. But if Notre Dame casts in fully anywhere why not do it for the most money?

The problem with 16 is that Duke and UNC don't stay together unless they head to the SEC or Nebraska moves back to the Big 12 and if the SEC and Big 10 move to 18 there isn't enough value for the Big 12.

Now if we move to a P4 Champs only and ND feels compelled to join a conference then you might work things out with Virginia and N.D to the Big 10 and Duke and North Carolina to the SEC.

Then the Big 12 has Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech Miami, N.C. State, and Virginia Tech, Pitt, and Louisville to add. That lineup has much more appeal.

If the Big 12 were to take back Nebraska then they could go all the way to 20 and Wake Forest would still be part of the group.

Big XX West

Nebraska, Iowa State, Kansas State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Texas, TCU, Baylor

Big XX East

Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Louisville, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami

Notre Dame would have a pick of the litter with a potential mix of Texas, Oklahoma or Nebraska at one end and then Pitt, Wake and Miami or Georgia Tech at the other. There will be time when they'll have to play a Kansas State maybe once every six years or so. But the divisions line up pretty much North and South.

That may be better able to monetize itself. It's a helluva a market and the ACCN could become the East Divisions network while the LHN became the West Divisions network.

So your Big 10 would be:
Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Virginia
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Your SEC would be:
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri,
Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

That's not too bad.

I played around with the concept a bit more and I think we can agree to have a "border" at the VA/NC line. Syracuse might fit the Big Ten, even as a private, better than NC State. So I would move NC State to the Big 12.

Nebraska -> Big 12

Pitt, Virginia, Syracuse -> Big Ten

Duke, UNC -> SEC

Virginia Tech, NC State, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Louisville, Georgia Tech -> Big 12

Wake Forest, Boston College -> Big East

If Boston College and Wake Forest still want to compete then they can be filled as the last two of the Big XX. Otherwise, they might find it worthwhile to be football independents and have their other sports in the Big East.

(04-25-2021 12:25 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(04-14-2021 03:18 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-14-2021 03:02 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(04-14-2021 11:58 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-14-2021 08:16 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Not that it has a chance of happening but I'd like to see the breakdown go this way:

Duke, Wake Forest -> Big East

UNC, UVa -> Big Ten

VT, NCSU -> SEC

Miami, Boston College, Florida State, Syracuse, Pitt, Clemson, Louisville, Georgia Tech -> Big 12

The states of Virginia and North Carolina would be the meeting points of the Big Ten and SEC. Boston College, Miami, Pitt and West Virginia will play more games against each other. Notre Dame would continue playing in the Northeast and Southeast but skip over the mid-Atlantic states. It's not optimal for either of the gaining conference but it'd get the job done of consolidation.

I've considered that option but it does pose difficulties. Duke and North Carolina were insistent upon staying together when seeking emergency options after Maryland's departure.

There are ways to make this work for you but it requires more moving pieces.

Duke, North Carolina, Virginia to the Big 10 and Nebraska to the Big 12.
N.C. State and Virginia Tech to the SEC.

IMO this would be the simplest division that would be possible, but Nebraska likely would not go for it.

Requiring no school to move puts the Big 10 at 18. Add Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, and Pitt (assuming N.D. still wants independence).

However what this does is to gut the Big 12's potential future value as the SEC would take the aforementioned 2 schools and pick up F.S.U. & Clemson resolving scheduling issues for South Carolina and Florida and solidifying it's grip on Southeastern branding.

Now the Big 12 has these options: Miami, Georgia Tech, Louisville as without Pitt there is no linkage to Syracuse or B.C..

Now if Notre Dame cast in fully with Texas and Oklahoma they would bring B.C. & Syracuse with them. But if Notre Dame casts in fully anywhere why not do it for the most money?

The problem with 16 is that Duke and UNC don't stay together unless they head to the SEC or Nebraska moves back to the Big 12 and if the SEC and Big 10 move to 18 there isn't enough value for the Big 12.

Now if we move to a P4 Champs only and ND feels compelled to join a conference then you might work things out with Virginia and N.D to the Big 10 and Duke and North Carolina to the SEC.

Then the Big 12 has Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech Miami, N.C. State, and Virginia Tech, Pitt, and Louisville to add. That lineup has much more appeal.

If the Big 12 were to take back Nebraska then they could go all the way to 20 and Wake Forest would still be part of the group.

Big XX West

Nebraska, Iowa State, Kansas State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Texas, TCU, Baylor

Big XX East

Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Louisville, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami

Notre Dame would have a pick of the litter with a potential mix of Texas, Oklahoma or Nebraska at one end and then Pitt, Wake and Miami or Georgia Tech at the other. There will be time when they'll have to play a Kansas State maybe once every six years or so. But the divisions line up pretty much North and South.

That may be better able to monetize itself. It's a helluva a market and the ACCN could become the East Divisions network while the LHN became the West Divisions network.

So your Big 10 would be:
Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Virginia
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Your SEC would be:
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri,
Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

That's not too bad.

I played around with the concept a bit more and I think we can agree to have a "border" at the VA/NC line. Syracuse might fit the Big Ten, even as a private, better than NC State. So I would move NC State to the Big 12.

Nebraska -> Big 12

Pitt, Virginia, Syracuse -> Big Ten

Duke, UNC -> SEC

Virginia Tech, NC State, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Louisville, Georgia Tech -> Big 12

Wake Forest, Boston College -> Big East

If Boston College and Wake Forest still want to compete then they can be filled as the last two of the Big XX. Otherwise, they might find it worthwhile to be football independents and have their other sports in the Big East.

So for the Big 10 you would have:
Maryland, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Virginia
Ohio State, Purdue, Rutgers, Syracuse
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State
Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

For the SEC it would be:
Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee
Auburn, Duke, Florida, Georgia
Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Texas A&M

For the Big 12:
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Baylor, Georgia Tech, Miami, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
*Notre Dame as a partial

I'd think that B.C. could go Big East and place football in the AAC. Wake Forest could go a few routes for basketball.

I think the SEC and Big 10 could live with that. Texas would be happy holding onto its own conference. Nebraska and Oklahoma back together would work well too.

I don't want to make the claim that UNC, Duke, NC State are connected at the hip, but I think it's plausible to consider.

UNC and NC State are they key publics from a decently large state. Most importantly, they are ruled by the same board. Not that I don't think UNC would like a competitive and monetary advantage, but politically that might be very difficult to pull off.

UNC and Duke are likely connected per Cunningham's communications a few years ago. Part of me thinks NC State is not far behind in a real world scenario where movement is happening.

If I remember correctly, Mr. SEC suggested several years ago that the SEC had run the numbers on adding 6 from the ACC...both the NC and VA schools...all of them. The numbers weren't favorable so the whole project wasn't seriously considered. That's not assuming they didn't run other numbers for other combinations, just that he specifically mentioned that grouping. That even led Mr. SEC to float the idea Pittsburgh could replace Wake Forest in that grouping although he admitted that was his personal theory only. (Sidenote: It's interesting that the SEC apparently thought in terms of 20 schools for the right grouping)

Two reasons for mentioning that, I'm sure the SEC was running numbers on a grouping that would have been ideal politically and one that ESPN would likely want to keep intact. Secondly, it's telling that a grouping like that wouldn't have been profitable for the SEC. If that core of schools in those states isn't strong enough to pump the numbers for the SEC then one has to wonder how strong they are for the current ACC and their business model.

Of course, we all know there are too many schools concentrated there, but if the SEC and ESPN couldn't make money off that grouping together then it shows the ACC's difficulty in parsing anything out. UVA and VT are likely connected. The Research Triangle is likely connected. I don't think Wake would be particularly hard to shake, but the money isn't there for these movements.

Perhaps the states could be split between two leagues, but I don't think we could split the groupings up. UNC helped put the kibosh on a movement of VT and NC State to the SEC years ago. I'm sure they didn't want Texas and Oklahoma to have power over their league, but I doubt they wanted NC State to have SEC money in their backyard.

It's a conundrum because there's so many ways to make important people unhappy no matter what button you push.

(04-25-2021 02:38 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I don't want to make the claim that UNC, Duke, NC State are connected at the hip, but I think it's plausible to consider.

UNC and NC State are they key publics from a decently large state. Most importantly, they are ruled by the same board. Not that I don't think UNC would like a competitive and monetary advantage, but politically that might be very difficult to pull off.

UNC and Duke are likely connected per Cunningham's communications a few years ago. Part of me thinks NC State is not far behind in a real world scenario where movement is happening.

If I remember correctly, Mr. SEC suggested several years ago that the SEC had run the numbers on adding 6 from the ACC...both the NC and VA schools...all of them. The numbers weren't favorable so the whole project wasn't seriously considered. That's not assuming they didn't run other numbers for other combinations, just that he specifically mentioned that grouping. That even led Mr. SEC to float the idea Pittsburgh could replace Wake Forest in that grouping although he admitted that was his personal theory only. (Sidenote: It's interesting that the SEC apparently thought in terms of 20 schools for the right grouping)

Two reasons for mentioning that, I'm sure the SEC was running numbers on a grouping that would have been ideal politically and one that ESPN would likely want to keep intact. Secondly, it's telling that a grouping like that wouldn't have been profitable for the SEC. If that core of schools in those states isn't strong enough to pump the numbers for the SEC then one has to wonder how strong they are for the current ACC and their business model.

Of course, we all know there are too many schools concentrated there, but if the SEC and ESPN couldn't make money off that grouping together then it shows the ACC's difficulty in parsing anything out. UVA and VT are likely connected. The Research Triangle is likely connected. I don't think Wake would be particularly hard to shake, but the money isn't there for these movements.

Perhaps the states could be split between two leagues, but I don't think we could split the groupings up. UNC helped put the kibosh on a movement of VT and NC State to the SEC years ago. I'm sure they didn't want Texas and Oklahoma to have power over their league, but I doubt they wanted NC State to have SEC money in their backyard.

It's a conundrum because there's so many ways to make important people unhappy no matter what button you push.

Well one thing to consider is that important people know they can't afford to have their media money doubled by their nearest competitors. And one reason the ACC is so low paid of a conferences is that the SEC controls the markets in their Southernmost states and the Big 10 in their Northernmost states and that only in North Carolina and Virginia do they control any part of their own footprint. The loss of a potential 300+ million in revenue per decade is important to important people.

ESPN's perspective would be in how to tie in 3 regions whose fans are a lot more interested in their own conference games than people in North Carolina and Virginia are. One way to do that is to split those schools up between those other 3 regions, at least as much as is geographically practical to do so.

A UVa, UNC, and Duke in the Big 10 or N.C. State and Va Tech in the SEC accomplishes this in part. But taking Duke to get UNC may not be quite so palatable to a Big 10 that needs football athletic brands. Academically it would be ideal for them. That duality of purpose is part of the confusion of all of this.

For the SEC it would be a settle which I've already pointed out might wouldn't really add to our bottom line. But for the SEC which is football rich the academic additions might be well worth while.

Perhaps if the SEC took UVa, UNC and Duke and the Big 10 added Missouri and Virginia Tech we would both get what we needed. The market differential would be 4 million but the SEC would be duplicating in one state. Missouri helps out Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois and Virginia Tech gives them a better football addition while if Missouri's fans are energized and they were in the Big 10 West it would give them a solid middler in football. And the geography works.

Then you would still be looking at schools which while second in commanding audiences in their states have the football gravitas to make Texas and Oklahoma's schedules much more attractive.

But no matter how you cut ATU it's the monetary deficit that hurts and will be the impetus if change happens. How to monetize it the best way will be ESPN's position.
I just happen to think that building a much stronger set of markets for the Big 12 and landing all of those rights might be something they would want.

Thing is UNC is already the top draw in that state. And that's with both of them in the ACC. One could make an argument that State could gain more attention by doing an A&M and gaining their own identity.

The Big Ten already had the template when they admitted Michigan State before that institution was admitted into the AAU. So it wouldn't be a bad idea to use that same standard with Virginia Tech. Perhaps some benchmarks would be placed on VT to ensure that the presidents won't raise a stink during a vote.

(04-26-2021 05:10 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Thing is UNC is already the top draw in that state. And that's with both of them in the ACC. One could make an argument that State could gain more attention by doing an A&M and gaining their own identity.

The Big Ten already had the template when they admitted Michigan State before that institution was admitted into the AAU. So it wouldn't be a bad idea to use that same standard with Virginia Tech. Perhaps some benchmarks would be placed on VT to ensure that the presidents won't raise a stink during a vote.

Let's assume that Notre Dame want to remain neutral, and let's assume that the Big 10 wants to improve football. Perhaps things could work this way. Missouri and Virginia Tech could be added to the Big 10 and Duke, North Carolina and Virginia to the SEC. If you still want to encourage Nebraska's return to the Big 12 then the Big 10 would have room for either Pitt or N.C. State which institutionally fits the Big 10 better than UNC.

With the new apportionment of the Congressional seats for the next ten years, I think that's going to influence where the Big Ten leaders might go. If that's the case then getting into the state of NC might become a necessary move. Especially when we have no realistic chance of getting into the larger Southern states. Taking in Missouri in exchange for giving up Nebraska is an acceptable move in that it would potentially reenergize both fan bases. Missouri is a "border" state, so the conference's influence could extend transregionally, if that's even a word.