(02-03-2020 02:58 AM)JRsec Wrote: As we move into the next round of Media contracts with the SEC set to move to at least a per team payout of 65 million (based on our 44.6 million payout for this past year). I have to wonder if the Big 12 is the only conference truly vulnerable in 2024-5 or whether the ACC facing gaps of up to 30 million in media revenue with the SEC and Big 10, which will also be sporting a new media contract, will have a significant number of schools that might like to have the opportunity to be counted among the members of either of those conferences rather than the ACC. Almost 400 million in media payouts over the next 13 years before the ACC gets to renew their existing contracts has to be pause for concern of even their core founding schools.
Would the balance for the future of college sports not be better served if the SEC and Big 10 grew out of the ACC and the Big 12 was strengthened with their key sports schools?
Let the SEC and Big 10 move to 16 members out of the ACC but without touching the key programs of Clemson and Florida State.
What if the Big 10 expanded practically with an addition of New York school and former AAU member Syracuse and added Notre Dame shoring up their advertising advantage in many key Northern Midwestern and Northeastern cities?
What if the SEC picked up the states of Virginia and North Carolina with UNC and Virginia? These are great academic adds for the SEC and strong basketball brands and they add 20 million to our existing footprint.
And what if the Big 10 did take basketball giant Kansas from the current Big 12 during their GOR expiration? Would the Big 10 be well served to pick up such a brand? Especially if they added Virginia Tech to go with them picking up that market and a large land grant school which is closer to AAU membership than an Oklahoma?
And what if the SEC added T.C.U. to have a presence in the DFW market and added Duke to pick up another basketball blueblood?
The Big 12 would then have 8 members: Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, and West Virginia.
They could pick up Louisville, Boston College and Pittsburgh and add them to West Virginia.
They could pick up Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina State as well.
Miami could be added to Baylor, Texas and Texas Tech to create a cross Gulf division.
Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State would make up the rest of the 16.
If they wanted to grow further they have Brigham Young and Wake Forest to consider.
The ACC is completely absorbed. The old core gets the doubling of their sports media revenue. Notre Dame, Syracuse and Virginia Tech have theirs doubled as well. Kansas gets a substantial raise as does T.C.U..
The addition of the football first schools of the ACC to the current Big 12 not only gives them the market penetration they need but also creates content value which drives up their revenue as well which is already higher than that of the ACC.
Everybody wins and not having Texas and Oklahoma headed to the Big 10 or SEC actually preserves a kind of balance within the college football upper tier.
Whether the PAC makes additions or not everyone is provided for.
With three 18 member conferences and the PAC remaining at 12 we move from a 65 member P5 to a 66 member P4 and now the CFP can become a champs only affair.
If ESPN acquires all of the rights to the Big 12 they make more money from the product and their loss of 51% of the access to Virginia Tech and Syracuse is easily offset by their 100% access to Texas and Oklahoma. Kansas is slightly over a 50% product for them now so no major change happens there, and Notre Dame is only a 5/12ths product of ESPN so not a great loss there either.
If the ACC schools want to play catch up in media revenue this is the most comprehensive and productive way to do so.
SEC:
Duke, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia
Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Missouri, Texas A&M, T.C.U.
B1G:
Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Rutgers, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue
Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Big 12:
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, Wake Forest
Boston College, Iowa State, Kansas State, Louisville, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Baylor, Brigham Young, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
PAC 12:
Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, California Los Angeles, Southern Cal, Utah
California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State
Now wouldn't that 66 as it is comported make a great deal of geographical sense where divisions were concerned and give us a really solid 66 schools in a new upper tier?
To add another wrinkle, If Vanderbilt decides that performing at this level is not what they want then they could leave the SEC as well. That would be consistent with their approach in recent years and I'm starting to think the SEC will put pressure on them to pull more of their own weight. If a guy like Malcolm Turner can't inspire them to change their philosophy then I don't know what will.
There's a mathematical reality that Vanderbilt is well below the SEC averages on revenue and spending. It's nothing personal against them and I certainly enjoy having Vandy in the league, but it's important that each member put their best foot forward if we're all going to enjoy equal revenue.
If they were to drop down to a more desirable league then we also need a private school to replace them. In the above scenario, Duke performs that role or TCU performs that role.
The main premise here is that alters the numbers. Vanderbilt has tangential value, but they drag the media revenue down. If you remove them from the equation then that opens up additional possibilities.
For one, in order to properly parse out the ACC then I think you're going to have to find a better or at least more stable home for virtually every school. Out of 15 schools, I think you'd need what...12 to break the GOR? Assuming ESPN is doing their thing behind closed doors then moving the pieces around shouldn't be too difficult. The only challenge is making sure the schools are given proper incentive to let the ACC pass. For most, that wouldn't be a problem, but others are more challenging.
If the powers that be can agree that building a new league around Texas and Oklahoma is the way to go then let's examine how to make that league as strong and as viable as possible.
There would be a few non-negotiable positions. Most of the Big 12 would have to stay intact, but not necessarily all of it. Texas will go to some effort to protect their in-state schools and they may do it if for no more reason than to ensure another TX school doesn't have SEC money flowing in. This isn't a deal-breaker, but let's assume for a moment that UT's opening offer includes all TX schools remaining in the Big 12. I think we can assume Oklahoma would feel the same way.
The combo of Kansas and Kansas State is a little different just because the local politics might not matter and it's entirely feasible that neither the SEC nor the Big Ten would make that call anyway in a scenario where ACC schools can be had. Iowa State doesn't have anywhere else to go. The only other school that sticks out as odd is West Virginia. That's not to suggest other leagues are beating the door down to get them, but the Big 12 powers aren't going to worry about losing them.
So let's say there are certain ACC schools that need to be funneled into the Big 12 for it to work. The list is pretty obvious. It starts with Florida State and Clemson. Miami helps. Louisville helps. Georgia Tech helps a little bit. Pittsburgh doesn't hurt really, but they're not essential here. Boston College doesn't really help anyone except maybe the Big Ten and even that is questionable. The quad of schools in NC have to be figured out simply because they've been tied together for so long, but in all honesty no one wants Wake Forest. Virginia Tech, Syracuse, and Notre Dame are schools that should appeal to the Big Ten so let's reserve them for that destination.
What does the SEC want out of this? They want more money, certainly. I'm sure they want access to the populations of NC and VA. These are fast growing states with good schools. Accessing them will help in a myriad of ways even if their athletic revenues aren't necessarily top notch.
Let's say that Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke are the baseline that the SEC will accept. They can get value out of these schools and states. Their private school need is met by Duke since the departure of Vanderbilt creating a void. If they added these 3 in the wake of Vandy then they're at 16 already.
The Big Ten has 3 strong additions in Notre Dame, Syracuse, and Virginia Tech. They need a 4th addition, however. The SEC on the other hand could rest at an even 16, but given the nature of the additions, it is probably best to match the Big Ten's numbers.
The only real thing the SEC could want from this position is expansion into Texas or perhaps Oklahoma. The Big Ten needs more exposure from the Eastern seaboard.
Texas could then allow TCU to come out from under their wings, but in exchange they want fewer rather than more schools from the East. They still want to maintain a strong voting bloc in their corner. With the loss of TCU from that wing, they need to leave out a school from the East that would be tempted to vote against them anyway.
In a surprise move, the leaders of the state of GA along with UGA would like Georgia Tech to move with them. The SEC is good with it because they replace one AAU school lost(Vanderbilt) with another. They get back an old rival that catches the attention of other legacy schools in the region even if the fan base is somewhat tepid. They make the old ACC bloc feel a little better as well given the presence of more representation. Perhaps most importantly, the Big Ten gains no access to the major media market of Atlanta.
So now we've got the SEC finished out at 18. The additions are Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, and TCU.
The Big Ten finishes out as well with NC State. It's another solid school in a growing market that isn't too far outside their new core. They stop at 18 with the additions of Notre Dame, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, and NC State.
The Big 12 lines up like this:
Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State in the West
In the East they acquire Florida State, Miami, Clemson, Louisville, and Pittsburgh. West Virginia may have been expandable, but it wasn't necessary. They fit in well and tie the room together. The league rests at 14.
Wake Forest and Boston College are left out, but the movement of Vanderbilt helps facilitate other moves that make everyone else a little happier. The ACC can easily be broken with 13 schools voting to dissolve and each of the 13 has found either a more prosperous or at least more stable home.
As for the schools that have moved down, I think they simply join the American and expand the content possibilities.
West: Houston, SMU, Tulsa, Navy, Memphis, Tulane, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati
East: Central Florida, South Florida, Wake Forest, East Carolina, Temple, Boston College
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If the SEC did expand again and did so from the ACC who should we take and why?
