CajunFanatico
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Back to the Future: The Sun Belt in 2020
Bigger, better? A shell of its former self? Will it even still exist?
I predict it will have morphed or merged with C-USA and formed a larger conference with east and west divisions and a conference championship game.
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08-09-2014 08:26 AM |
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AppinVA
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RE: Back to the Future: The Sun Belt in 2020
I'm not so sure. I think things will be pretty much the same in 2020, though I agree with your prediction. I just think it's about 10 years off, instead of five or six.
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08-09-2014 08:44 AM |
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ark30inf
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RE: Back to the Future: The Sun Belt in 2020
(08-09-2014 08:26 AM)CajunFanatico Wrote: Bigger, better? A shell of its former self? Will it even still exist?
I predict it will have morphed or merged with C-USA and formed a larger conference with east and west divisions and a conference championship game.
It is almost impossible to even predict at this point.
A big determinant is, what will the P5 do with their new found powers. Do they do as they always have and get into an arms race and try to exploit every loophole? Do they continue to try to divide college football and further concentrate the market and shank everyone else?
Or do they at some point realize that they are now completely responsible for the future of a great sport and start making an attempt to govern wisely for the good of the whole sport?
I predict the former. If that is the case we may see some sort of effort on the part of all of the G5 except the AAC to act in some sort of unified manner to protect their mutual interests and boost their power, which might include a reshuffling of conferences.
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08-09-2014 12:14 PM |
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HeartOfDixie
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RE: Back to the Future: The Sun Belt in 2020
It can't continue to exist as is. I agree with a vision more like Fanatico's.
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08-09-2014 12:17 PM |
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GaSoEagle
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RE: Back to the Future: The Sun Belt in 2020
Within the next 5 years the Sun Belt will be at 12. It makes alot of sense for a reshuffling between CUSA and SB to get to more regional conferences, but I will believe it when I see it. I do think the realignment from G5 to P5 is basically over. I don't believe the Big 12 (or 10 as it is now) is going to expand. I do believe they are happy at 10. As the new TV deals are done in the next 3-4 years I don't see much reason really for anyone in the SB to want to move to CUSA, and at 14 I doubt CUSA has any interest in adding more anyway. In fact I could see them losing 2 members and still not expanding.
Now that the can of worms has been opened I see the P5 gradually giving more and more to their student athletes in stipends, insurance, etc. I do believe they need the G5 however and as income continues to go up for the playoffs and TV deals I expect a bit more will be shared with the G5-- enought to allow the G5 to keep up with the stipends.
Playoffs will also be expanded to 8 within the next 5 years.
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08-09-2014 12:27 PM |
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ark30inf
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RE: Back to the Future: The Sun Belt in 2020
(08-09-2014 12:27 PM)GaSoEagle Wrote: Playoffs will also be expanded to 8 within the next 5 years.
That may be the key point. Will the P5 have come to the realization by then that the health of the G5 is necessary to the overall health of college football or will they still have an elitist attitude and wish we were dead?
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08-09-2014 12:33 PM |
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HCJag
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RE: Back to the Future: The Sun Belt in 2020
I'll just hope for the best.
(This post was last modified: 08-09-2014 12:37 PM by HCJag.)
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08-09-2014 12:35 PM |
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CajunFanatico
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RE: Back to the Future: The Sun Belt in 2020
(08-09-2014 12:27 PM)GaSoEagle Wrote: I don't believe the Big 12 (or 10 as it is now) is going to expand. I do believe they are happy at 10.
I believe they will because I think Texas will get restless and bolt one of these days for what they believe are greener pastures. Perhaps another team or two will go with them. Big 12 then adds teams like BYU and Cincy.......perhaps a team from Florida like UCF.
AAC merges with MWC.
Sun Belt merges with C-USA.
MAC keeps chugging along being the MAC.
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08-09-2014 12:52 PM |
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Steve1981
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RE: Back to the Future: The Sun Belt in 2020
(08-09-2014 12:27 PM)GaSoEagle Wrote: Within the next 5 years the Sun Belt will be at 12. It makes alot of sense for a reshuffling between CUSA and SB to get to more regional conferences, but I will believe it when I see it. I do think the realignment from G5 to P5 is basically over. I don't believe the Big 12 (or 10 as it is now) is going to expand. I do believe they are happy at 10. As the new TV deals are done in the next 3-4 years I don't see much reason really for anyone in the SB to want to move to CUSA, and at 14 I doubt CUSA has any interest in adding more anyway. In fact I could see them losing 2 members and still not expanding.
Now that the can of worms has been opened I see the P5 gradually giving more and more to their student athletes in stipends, insurance, etc. I do believe they need the G5 however and as income continues to go up for the playoffs and TV deals I expect a bit more will be shared with the G5-- enought to allow the G5 to keep up with the stipends.
Playoffs will also be expanded to 8 within the next 5 years.
I agree with most of your post, except some minor conference re-alignment. Believe the Army-Navy contract ends around 2018 and there is still BYU hang out there.
Think the Sun Belt will be fine.
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08-09-2014 01:17 PM |
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runamuck
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RE: Back to the Future: The Sun Belt in 2020
(08-09-2014 12:17 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote: It can't continue to exist as is. I agree with a vision more like Fanatico's.
I could see the aac moving up to the p6 and rice/marshall/utep/usm going with them..cusa and the sbc would merge and there would then be g4..uta and ualr move to mvc and never add football..
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08-09-2014 01:37 PM |
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Tom in Lazybrook
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RE: Back to the Future: The Sun Belt in 2020
If conference realignment stabilizes for the next 5.5 years, here's my prediction as to where we will be in 2020.
1) The Sun Belt will have a 12th team and CCG. I predict it will be Missouri State and either JMU or EKU. Those teams will be all sports members
2) NMSU will be an all sports member
3) Idaho will no longer be in the conference.
4) The Sun Belt will grow into a competitive loop in football
5) We will still have a sh*tty TV deal, but we will have bowl parity with CUSA,
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08-09-2014 01:50 PM |
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ark30inf
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RE: Back to the Future: The Sun Belt in 2020
(08-09-2014 01:37 PM)runamuck Wrote: (08-09-2014 12:17 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote: It can't continue to exist as is. I agree with a vision more like Fanatico's.
I could see the aac moving up to the p6 and rice/marshall/utep/usm going with them..cusa and the sbc would merge and there would then be g4..uta and ualr move to mvc and never add football..
Why in the world would the P5 let in the AAC?
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08-09-2014 02:17 PM |
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SoCalBobcat78
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RE: Back to the Future: The Sun Belt in 2020
(08-09-2014 12:52 PM)CajunFanatico Wrote: (08-09-2014 12:27 PM)GaSoEagle Wrote: I don't believe the Big 12 (or 10 as it is now) is going to expand. I do believe they are happy at 10.
I believe they will because I think Texas will get restless and bolt one of these days for what they believe are greener pastures. Perhaps another team or two will go with them. Big 12 then adds teams like BYU and Cincy.......perhaps a team from Florida like UCF.
AAC merges with MWC.
Sun Belt merges with C-USA.
MAC keeps chugging along being the MAC.
Since everything done at the FBS level is about money, how does any of this make additional money? The Big 12 this past season had the most revenue per school of any of the Power five conferences ($26.2 million per team). Texas has a third tier TV contract (Longhorn Network) that pays them $15 million per year. They don't share this with the rest of the Big 12. I can't see them being restless.
The Big 12 has a Grant of Rights agreement so their is no incentive to leave for any school in the Big 12. The GOR is good through 2025.
How does a G5 conference merger translate into additional money?
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08-09-2014 02:30 PM |
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GaSoEagle
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RE: Back to the Future: The Sun Belt in 2020
We are at the point now that there is no compeling reason for conferences to expand. At that P5 level everyone has 12 or more except the Big 12 and at 10 they have publicly said they have no desire to add more teams. They are raking in the millions now so why add?
At the G5 level everyone except the Sun Belt has 12 (or 14) or will have in the next year or two. There is absolutely NO reason for any G5 conference to add members except the Sun Belt adding 1 to get to 12.
I believe we are entering a period of many years now where there will be very little realignment, other than the Sun Belt getting to 12.
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08-09-2014 02:41 PM |
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gostAte870
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RE: Back to the Future: The Sun Belt in 2020
While I was in 2020 in my DeLorean, the Sun Belt had just dropped down from 12 to 10 teams. There was a lot of friction between C-USA and the SBC, and it appeared that the C-USA was dying off to make room for another G5 conference that would be more football-oriented. Looks like the SBC will hang on, C-USA dies, and the best out of the two conferences joins this new "conference X".
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08-09-2014 02:43 PM |
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SoCalBobcat78
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RE: Back to the Future: The Sun Belt in 2020
(08-09-2014 01:50 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: If conference realignment stabilizes for the next 5.5 years, here's my prediction as to where we will be in 2020.
1) The Sun Belt will have a 12th team and CCG. I predict it will be Missouri State and either JMU or EKU. Those teams will be all sports members
2) NMSU will be an all sports member
3) Idaho will no longer be in the conference.
4) The Sun Belt will grow into a competitive loop in football
5) We will still have a sh*tty TV deal, but we will have bowl parity with CUSA,
An FCS school needs three things to go FBS: The desire, the money and an invite. Missouri State has none of the three, EKU has the desire and JMU may have none of them and may have all three.
A forgotten school is Liberty. Liberty has two of the three. For a school that stirs up a lot of emotion among SBC fans, they have a solid future schedule with P5 schools. This year at North Carolina, 2015 at West Virgina, 2016 at Virginia Tech and 2017 at Baylor.
I agree that the SBC will have a CCG and a 12th team, but well before 2020. I think if JMU is a permanent no and Liberty continues to be unacceptable, then it has to be UMASS. That should happen by 2016.
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08-09-2014 03:08 PM |
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CajunFanatico
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RE: Back to the Future: The Sun Belt in 2020
(08-09-2014 02:30 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote: (08-09-2014 12:52 PM)CajunFanatico Wrote: (08-09-2014 12:27 PM)GaSoEagle Wrote: I don't believe the Big 12 (or 10 as it is now) is going to expand. I do believe they are happy at 10.
I believe they will because I think Texas will get restless and bolt one of these days for what they believe are greener pastures. Perhaps another team or two will go with them. Big 12 then adds teams like BYU and Cincy.......perhaps a team from Florida like UCF.
AAC merges with MWC.
Sun Belt merges with C-USA.
MAC keeps chugging along being the MAC.
Since everything done at the FBS level is about money, how does any of this make additional money? The Big 12 this past season had the most revenue per school of any of the Power five conferences ($26.2 million per team). Texas has a third tier TV contract (Longhorn Network) that pays them $15 million per year. They don't share this with the rest of the Big 12. I can't see them being restless.
The Big 12 has a Grant of Rights agreement so their is no incentive to leave for any school in the Big 12. The GOR is good through 2025.
How does a G5 conference merger translate into additional money?
Please point me to any post of mine where I have said anything that is reasonable, logical, or even worth repeating for that matter.
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08-09-2014 03:21 PM |
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Tom in Lazybrook
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RE: Back to the Future: The Sun Belt in 2020
(08-09-2014 03:08 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote: (08-09-2014 01:50 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: If conference realignment stabilizes for the next 5.5 years, here's my prediction as to where we will be in 2020.
1) The Sun Belt will have a 12th team and CCG. I predict it will be Missouri State and either JMU or EKU. Those teams will be all sports members
2) NMSU will be an all sports member
3) Idaho will no longer be in the conference.
4) The Sun Belt will grow into a competitive loop in football
5) We will still have a sh*tty TV deal, but we will have bowl parity with CUSA,
An FCS school needs three things to go FBS: The desire, the money and an invite. Missouri State has none of the three, EKU has the desire and JMU may have none of them and may have all three.
A forgotten school is Liberty. Liberty has two of the three. For a school that stirs up a lot of emotion among SBC fans, they have a solid future schedule with P5 schools. This year at North Carolina, 2015 at West Virgina, 2016 at Virginia Tech and 2017 at Baylor.
I agree that the SBC will have a CCG and a 12th team, but well before 2020. I think if JMU is a permanent no and Liberty continues to be unacceptable, then it has to be UMASS. That should happen by 2016.
By 2020, lots of things could change. I think that the passage of time will make Liberty's candidacy appear to be more, not less problematic, unless there are changes forthcoming.
For JMU and Missouri State, there are some hard decisions they'll need t make. I actually think they both come over. Not next year. Not the year after that, but somewhere around 2017 or so.
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08-09-2014 03:28 PM |
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Saint3333
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RE: Back to the Future: The Sun Belt in 2020
(08-09-2014 01:50 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: If conference realignment stabilizes for the next 5.5 years, here's my prediction as to where we will be in 2020.
1) The Sun Belt will have a 12th team and CCG. I predict it will be Missouri State and either JMU or EKU. Those teams will be all sports members
2) NMSU will be an all sports member
3) Idaho will no longer be in the conference.
4) The Sun Belt will grow into a competitive loop in football
5) We will still have a sh*tty TV deal, but we will have bowl parity with CUSA,
Great post, but I'd change point 5. Six years from now the way we watch TV will be much different and I'd wager I'll be able to watch all 12 games on TV or whatever head held devices we're all carrying around. Technology is changing so rapidly.
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08-09-2014 03:54 PM |
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TheRevSWT
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RE: Back to the Future: The Sun Belt in 2020
(08-09-2014 12:14 PM)ark30inf Wrote: Or do they at some point realize that they are now completely responsible for the future of a great sport and start making an attempt to govern wisely for the good of the whole sport?
To the bolded part... BWAHAHAHAHAHA.
You stand a better chance of the Sun Belt having a run of 10 National Champions in football starting 3 years ago.
It hasn't been about the long-term health of the sport for decades. It's been about (and sadly, will continue to be about) how much money can I get for my university in the least amount of time.
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08-09-2014 03:58 PM |
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