(04-09-2019 12:22 PM)Zorch Wrote: (04-09-2019 10:22 AM)Tribal Wrote: (04-09-2019 09:34 AM)Tribe32 Wrote: (04-09-2019 08:37 AM)Zorch Wrote: (04-09-2019 05:17 AM)Tribal Wrote: Cherry picking stats again.
Auburn: 78% FT (11-14) UVA: 50% FT (6-12)
MSU: 78% (14-18) TTU: 62% (8-13)
Which two teams won to play in the National Championship Game?
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Uh .... UVA hit 3 free throws with 1 second left to beat Auburn. They made free throws in OT to beat Purdue after Purdue had missed a crucial free throw late. It is not just the number of ft's that count, BUT WHEN YOU MAKE THEM (just ask Omar). UVA made them when they counted -- and won -- and Purdue (and New Mexico State, and others) missed them -- and lost. Can't explain it any more simply than that.
See, the problem with this logic is that if UVA would have made their free throws earlier in the game, Guy never gets the chance to shoot three free throws to take the lead........because they would have been winning already.
So, I agree with you. It definitely matters when they make them.
Sure, no one disagrees with the fact that, down by 2, sinking 3 at the end sealed it. If UVA hit just an average % of FTs earlier, they wouldn't have needed to hit 3 to win because they were better in many other areas. The problem is, there are so many--and far more crucial--other stats that, statistically speaking, increase the probability of winning. FG%, assists to turnovers, rebounding...all play a larger role. "FTs wins games" is such a silly argument. UVA shot better than TTU, outrebounded, more assists, and better assist to turnover ratio, and were even on FT%. No doubt, UVA had to hit FTs in OT to win but check out the play that put them ahead and how many rebounds, caused turnovers, and TTU's missed shots (FG %) followed that go ahead 3 pointer.
If UVA hit just an average % of FTs earlier, they wouldn't have needed to hit 3 to win because they were better in many other areas.
Hmm, they were better in many other areas ....and yet they still needed to hit those 3 FTs to win. Sounds like a pretty darn important statistic to me (both earlier or later, but later certainly gets your attention when the game is on the line). Thanks for providing the verbiage to seal the debate.
Now you're arguing just to argue. What do you think leads to FTs? Turnovers and rebounds have an awful lot to do with it. But, don't take my word for it...
Based on statistical analyses, the four most important keys for team success in basketball and their relative weights, in parentheses, are:
Shoot a high field goal percentage (10).
Do not commit turnovers (5-6).
Get offensive rebounds (4-5).
Get to the foul line frequently (2-3)
Nothing in there about FT % or hitting them at this time or that time. In fact, "Interestingly, it is more important for teams to get to the foul line frequently than it is for them to hit a high percentage of their foul shots. Perhaps, this is because lots of foul shots means the other team's starters are in foul trouble. Again, if shooting percentages are equal, the NBA team that commits fewer fouls wins 67 percent of the games."
https://www.sfandllaw.com/Articles/What-...ysis.shtml
Or, this one supporting the same research:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/factors.html
Shooting (40%)
Turnovers (25%)
Rebounding (20%)
Free Throws (15%)
It's okay, it says FTs are fourth so you're making ground - unfortunately for your stance, FT% or timeliness isn't a real factor. Still proves commonsense logic that defaces the "FTs wins games" myth.
Or this one (seriously, just going down the line of my Google search)
https://coachingtoolbox.net/blog/the-fiv...ball-games
The team that recorded the high field goal percentage was the winner in 75 percent of the basketball games.
The team that scored the most free throws was the eventual winner in 70 percent of the games.
The team that recovered the higher number of rebounds was the winner 65 percent of the time.
The team that committed the higher number of personal fouls was the eventual winner in oniy 25 percent of the games.
The team that held the point advantage at halftime was the winner 74 percent of the time.
Another research paper with math and formulas and lots of fun stuff!
https://statathlon.com/four-factors-basketball-success/
Effective Field Goal% is an alternative to FG%, which inflates when the team makes three pointers.
Turnover Rate is an estimation of turnovers committed by a team per 100 possessions.
Offensive Rebound Rate is the percentage of contested rebounds that a team grabs after its own missed shots.
Free Throw Rate is the number of free throw attempts per every field goal attempt. Apart from easy points, free throws contribute towards opponent’s foul trouble
Too easy. I believe the rearch and expert analysis. Case closed.
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk