(02-04-2015 06:38 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  

(02-02-2015 03:21 PM)tribe_pride Wrote:  I am going to go with a no on an at-large in all honesty. The 2009-2010 team was the team that had a chance when they won at Maryland and Wake Forest and home versus a good Richmond team. They had 22 wins (1 D-II) in the 12th ranked conference with a 58 RPI with a 6-7 record against the top 100 and 3-3 against the top 50 RPI (MD, Wake and Richmond were top 50 as was ODU (0-3 against them)) Richmond was a 7 seed, Wake a 9 seed and ODU an 11 seed that year. That was our at large ripoff year where we had the chance and the networks covered us as one of the 5.

This year we are projected to be 1-5 against the top 100 with the lone win coming over Wofford while losing to Richmond, Florida, UNC, ODU and High Point. Northeastern may be able to sneak into the top 100 but are projected at 106 and have lost 3 of 5 games

We just don't have the big wins this year outside of Wofford. Wofford should win the Southern but did lose to a bad Citadel team (worse RPI than Delaware and only has 1 win in the last 5 games and that was Wofford)

The website http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournam...cketology/ has given us no more than an 8% chance at any point this year for an at large bid and we are the only CAA school listed with any percentage chance of an at large. We will have to win the 3 games in Baltimore. Based on earlier comments, our RPI would likely have to get into the 40's for there to be any at large hope. I doubt we can get there even if we win all our games up to the CAA final. The only team we have left that might help us from an RPI standpoint is Northeastern(they are currently 100 and would need to win to stay in the top 100). Of course, for the regular season title, we need NE and UNCW to lose some more games unless the Tribe wins out. At this point, that seems very unlikely.

We would climb well into the 40s by season's end if we win all our remaining regular season games. The following website gives you a good breakdown and also has an RPI Wizard which lets you play with the outcomes of games to see how it projects into your RPI: http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/William...0Mary.html