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Expansion remains hot topic in Sun Belt circles
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Fresno St. Alum Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Expansion remains hot topic in Sun Belt circles
you guys took NMSU's worst sport. Their basketball is pretty good. 21 NCAA tourneys, most from the good WAC and good Big West when it was a UNLV plus 1 league.
(This post was last modified: 05-09-2014 09:49 PM by Fresno St. Alum.)
05-09-2014 09:38 PM
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Eagleditka Offline
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Post: #22
Expansion remains hot topic in Sun Belt circles
It feels like nothing is going to happen. They might do NMSU all-sports just for the PR. Make it look like the conference actually achieved something. But without divisions the ease travel, I think most of the eastern school are lukewarm to the idea. I'd give staying at 11 2/1 odds, UMass+NMSU 5/1 odds, and just NMSU 10/1.


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05-09-2014 09:41 PM
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David Krysakowski Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Expansion remains hot topic in Sun Belt circles
How about adding Jacksonville and dropping Idaho & New Mexico State?

Football: Appalachian State, Arkansas State, GA Southern, GA State, Louisiana, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy

Basketball: Appalachian State, Arkansas-Little Rock, Arkansas State, GA Southern, GA State, Jacksonville, Louisiana, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, Texas-Arlington, Texas State, Troy
(This post was last modified: 05-09-2014 10:23 PM by David Krysakowski.)
05-09-2014 10:18 PM
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RustonCAT Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Expansion remains hot topic in Sun Belt circles
If the sun belt makes the wrong moves I could see stAte and Cajuns leaving for slightly greener pastures just to get out of this sinking ship!
05-09-2014 11:09 PM
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arkstfan Online
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Post: #25
RE: Expansion remains hot topic in Sun Belt circles
(05-09-2014 11:09 PM)RustonCAT Wrote:  If the sun belt makes the wrong moves I could see stAte and Cajuns leaving for slightly greener pastures just to get out of this sinking ship!

[Image: owr5ch.jpg]
05-09-2014 11:16 PM
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TOPSTRAIGHT Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Expansion remains hot topic in Sun Belt circles
How about you get your head examined ?
05-09-2014 11:16 PM
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RustonCAT Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Expansion remains hot topic in Sun Belt circles
If you really think stAte and ULL can't go anywhere your a moron
05-09-2014 11:28 PM
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ark30inf Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Expansion remains hot topic in Sun Belt circles
(05-09-2014 11:28 PM)RustonCAT Wrote:  If you really think stAte and ULL can't go anywhere your a moron

I think you'll find about 99% of people are morons then.

But I'll play along. Where exactly could we go if we handed in our exit papers to the SBC?
05-09-2014 11:32 PM
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RustonCAT Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Expansion remains hot topic in Sun Belt circles
(05-09-2014 11:32 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  
(05-09-2014 11:28 PM)RustonCAT Wrote:  If you really think stAte and ULL can't go anywhere your a moron

I think you'll find about 99% of people are morons then.

But I'll play along. Where exactly could we go if we handed in our exit papers to the SBC?

Not one program that has left the belt is better than the top 3 schools still here! Blindly leaving the sun belt hoping to be picked up would be stupid. We all know Mac will expand, AAC will expand, CUSA Will expand again.

Just have to wait our turn. CUSA and AAC have learned the false market BS lesson with both about to get less than Grand TV deals
(This post was last modified: 05-09-2014 11:41 PM by RustonCAT.)
05-09-2014 11:37 PM
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ark30inf Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Expansion remains hot topic in Sun Belt circles
(05-09-2014 11:37 PM)RustonCAT Wrote:  
(05-09-2014 11:32 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  
(05-09-2014 11:28 PM)RustonCAT Wrote:  If you really think stAte and ULL can't go anywhere your a moron

I think you'll find about 99% of people are morons then.

But I'll play along. Where exactly could we go if we handed in our exit papers to the SBC?

Not one program that has left the belt is better than the top 3 schools still here! Blindly leaving the sun belt hoping to be picked up would be stupid. We all know Mac will expand, AAC will expand, CUSA Will expand again.

Just have to wait our turn. CUSA and AAC have learned the false market BS lesson with both about to get less than Grand TV deals

No, we all don't know that MAC, AAC, and CUSA will expand. We don't know that at all. And if they did, there is absolutely no assurance whatsoever that they would take us over the other candidates available.

You do understand that there is no "turn" for everyone. It's not a conveyor belt where everyone ends up getting "promoted".
05-09-2014 11:52 PM
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ARSTATEFAN1986 Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Expansion remains hot topic in Sun Belt circles
(05-09-2014 10:18 PM)David Krysakowski Wrote:  How about adding Jacksonville and dropping Idaho & New Mexico State?

Football: Appalachian State, Arkansas State, GA Southern, GA State, Louisiana, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, Texas State, Troy

Basketball: Appalachian State, Arkansas-Little Rock, Arkansas State, GA Southern, GA State, Jacksonville, Louisiana, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, Texas-Arlington, Texas State, Troy

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05-09-2014 11:54 PM
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FAUAEPi Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Expansion remains hot topic in Sun Belt circles
Please invite NMSU all sports! Would be huge for the conference, and it would allow the Aggies strong basketball program almost yearly bids to at least the NIT (not meant to be a knock if SBC basketball, just have a lot of respect for NMSU's basketball program).The lack of nearby conference teams could be a problem, especially for the non major/Olympic sports, but stability for their football program and greater chances to reaching the NCAA tournament for the basketball program outweighs that.
After that, who knows. Obviously JMU and Missouri State would've been great adds, but that's not going to happen. UMass football only makes sense. I mean if you already have Idaho, why not stretch some more for another flagship?
05-09-2014 11:55 PM
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TOPSTRAIGHT Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Expansion remains hot topic in Sun Belt circles
SHOUT OUT to ARK30INF for some great posts! Do not always agree but lately you have been right down the line on this and other boards.
05-10-2014 12:48 AM
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arkstfan Online
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Post: #34
RE: Expansion remains hot topic in Sun Belt circles
(05-09-2014 11:37 PM)RustonCAT Wrote:  
(05-09-2014 11:32 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  
(05-09-2014 11:28 PM)RustonCAT Wrote:  If you really think stAte and ULL can't go anywhere your a moron

I think you'll find about 99% of people are morons then.

But I'll play along. Where exactly could we go if we handed in our exit papers to the SBC?

Not one program that has left the belt is better than the top 3 schools still here! Blindly leaving the sun belt hoping to be picked up would be stupid. We all know Mac will expand, AAC will expand, CUSA Will expand again.

Just have to wait our turn. CUSA and AAC have learned the false market BS lesson with both about to get less than Grand TV deals

You arguing with yourself now? You advocate leaving then point out you have to have an invite.

No we don't know that the MAC will expand. The CFP revenue share model constrains expansion. For the MAC to go to 14 members the two new members have to bring $1.2 million each in new revenue to make expansion worthwhile.

No we don't know that CUSA will expand. If C-USA can hold its current TV dollars after 2015-16 and that isn't a given, adding two more would mean the new members have to bring $2 million each to the table to be revenue neutral and with the C-USA tournament shares likely to fall, the odds are against C-USA distributing as much to members in 2016-17 as 2015-16. An organization with declining revenues expands for only one reason, to gain admission fee revenue (see WFL, ABA, WHA, NASL who all did ill-conceived expansions to gain operating revenue via entry fees). It is more likely that C-USA destabilizes because of falling revenue than adds members.

No we don't know that AAC will expand either. They have the second best TV deal outside of the P5 (Big East's is about double per team, BUT FOOTBALL DRIVES THE BUS!). They've made a nice start gaining NCAA units. There are very few schools that can move the needle.
05-10-2014 08:49 AM
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arkstfan Online
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Post: #35
RE: Expansion remains hot topic in Sun Belt circles
Based on the past history of the BCS (important because the leadership of the CFP was the BCS leadership) forming a new conference means foregoing CFP conference revenue and a shot at the access bowls until the next deal is signed. The NCAA has waiting periods for new leagues but an existing league can be gutted, reform under the two year grace period and never miss a beat.

Taking that into account, there are only five "franchises" out there for G5 FBS football.

That means if C-USA is disaffected by their new TV deal, they can't just say screw it, walk away in a group and raid another league and start from scratch very effectively.

If say UTEP, Rice, UTSA, and UNT are unhappy with what becomes of CUSA they can't just (easily) form SWC2. Likewise if Houston becomes frustrated with AAC, they can't just walk and start calling regional schools.

If someone wants to form SWC2, the far easier path is to invade a "host" conference as new members, align with existing members, rename/rebrand the league and potentially push some out.

Let's say CUSA-Texas is unhappy. If you can't easily form a new league what is your choice? You start talking to a couple Sun Belt schools and outline your vision and get them on board. Then you apply for membership which will be approved. You've got 15 full members in Sun Belt / SWC2 but not for long. CUSA-EveryoneElse is going to want to get to at least 12 so they will take at least two from App, GaSt, GaSo, Troy, USA, most likely two of the first three because they help bridge the Florida schools. Now you have other CUSA-EveryoneElse members weighing whether they want to be in the eastern oriented CUSA which probably has 7 of 12 members in the eastern time zone now. So one or two more may come knocking which means CUSA-EE turns again to eastern Sun Belt members most likely though JMU may now be on the table.

In short order you have the Sun Belt name gone and most of the G5 west of the Mississippi River and east of the Great Plains in one league under a new banner.
05-10-2014 08:52 AM
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AppManDG Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Expansion remains hot topic in Sun Belt circles
(05-09-2014 08:55 PM)Louisianafanrcajun90 Wrote:  
(05-09-2014 08:00 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  
(05-09-2014 07:58 PM)Louisianafanrcajun90 Wrote:  
(05-09-2014 06:54 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  
(05-09-2014 06:51 PM)Louisianafanrcajun90 Wrote:  To CUSA but hopefully someplace better.

And there is zero evidence that they, or anyone better, has any interest in expanding.

If anyone does expand there is no evidence they wouldn't take TXST, USA, NMSU or GaSt.

No we are up to bat next.

NMSU was the only SBC school that was really mentioned as next up to bat.

I knew there was one ASU guy that was Belt or bust. I guess you are him. The Cajuns and ASU are the most likely teams to leave next. If the TV money evens out among other things then there's no reason to leave. If not we are a gone pecan.

You need to have somewhere to go before you can leave. With the P5 playoff money based on 12 team conferences it is highly unlikely CUSA presidents will voting themselves a additional cut in revenue. Some realignment needs to take place, but the folks at La Tech and a few other would have to swallow their pride for it to take place.
05-10-2014 11:00 AM
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AppManDG Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Expansion remains hot topic in Sun Belt circles
Looking at it geographically I'd like to see something like this, but it'll never happen.

CUSA: App St, Ark St, Charlotte, Delaware, JMU, Ga State, Marshall, MTSU, ODU, Ohio, UAB, WKU
SunBelt: Ga Southern, FAU, FIU, La Tech, N Texas, S Alabama, S Miss, Texas State, Troy, ULL, ULM, UTSA

UTEP & NMSU to Mtn West
Idaho to Big Sky
UMass to AAC
05-10-2014 11:12 AM
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Vobserver Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Expansion remains hot topic in Sun Belt circles
(05-10-2014 11:12 AM)AppManDG Wrote:  Looking at it geographically I'd like to see something like this, but it'll never happen.

CUSA: App St, Ark St, Charlotte, Delaware, JMU, Ga State, Marshall, MTSU, ODU, Ohio, UAB, WKU
SunBelt: Ga Southern, FAU, FIU, La Tech, N Texas, S Alabama, S Miss, Texas State, Troy, ULL, ULM, UTSA

UTEP & NMSU to Mtn West
Idaho to Big Sky
UMass to AAC

I like this better:

SWC:
East: Ark St, MoSt, LaTech, USM, USA, UAB.

West: UNT, TxSt, UTSA, NMSU, UTEP, UL.

Sun Belt Conference:

South: Ga Southern, FAU, FIU, Troy, GaSt, ULM

North: UNCC, MTSU, WKU, Marshall, ODU, App
(This post was last modified: 05-10-2014 02:08 PM by Vobserver.)
05-10-2014 02:03 PM
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Redwolves06 Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Expansion remains hot topic in Sun Belt circles
(05-10-2014 02:03 PM)Vobserver Wrote:  
(05-10-2014 11:12 AM)AppManDG Wrote:  Looking at it geographically I'd like to see something like this, but it'll never happen.

CUSA: App St, Ark St, Charlotte, Delaware, JMU, Ga State, Marshall, MTSU, ODU, Ohio, UAB, WKU
SunBelt: Ga Southern, FAU, FIU, La Tech, N Texas, S Alabama, S Miss, Texas State, Troy, ULL, ULM, UTSA

UTEP & NMSU to Mtn West
Idaho to Big Sky
UMass to AAC

I like this better:

SWC:
East: Ark St, MoSt, LaTech, USM, USA, UAB.

West: UNT, TxSt, UTSA, NMSU, UTEP, UL.

Sun Belt Conference:

South: Ga Southern, FAU, FIU, Troy, GaSt, ULM

North: UNCC, MTSU, WKU, Marshall, ODU, App


Love this, would like to see Rice instead of USA or MoSt though...
05-10-2014 03:27 PM
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AppManDG Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Expansion remains hot topic in Sun Belt circles
(05-10-2014 02:03 PM)Vobserver Wrote:  
(05-10-2014 11:12 AM)AppManDG Wrote:  Looking at it geographically I'd like to see something like this, but it'll never happen.

CUSA: App St, Ark St, Charlotte, Delaware, JMU, Ga State, Marshall, MTSU, ODU, Ohio, UAB, WKU
SunBelt: Ga Southern, FAU, FIU, La Tech, N Texas, S Alabama, S Miss, Texas State, Troy, ULL, ULM, UTSA

UTEP & NMSU to Mtn West
Idaho to Big Sky
UMass to AAC

I like this better:

SWC:
East: Ark St, MoSt, LaTech, USM, USA, UAB.

West: UNT, TxSt, UTSA, NMSU, UTEP, UL.

Sun Belt Conference:

South: Ga Southern, FAU, FIU, Troy, GaSt, ULM

North: UNCC, MTSU, WKU, Marshall, ODU, App

I like this better:

Sun Belt
East: Ark St, La Tech, MTSU, S Miss, ULM, USA
West: NMSU, N Texas, TxSt, UTEP, UTSA, ULL

CUSA
South: FAU, FIU, Ga So, GaSt, UAB, Troy
North: App, Charlotte, JMU, Marshall, ODU, WKU
05-10-2014 04:24 PM
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