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New Orleans Bowl 2014 SBC vs MW
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chiefsfan Offline
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Post: #21
RE: New Orleans Bowl 2014 SBC vs MW
(05-12-2014 12:47 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(05-12-2014 10:13 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(05-12-2014 08:27 AM)Cat79 Wrote:  
(05-12-2014 12:48 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(05-11-2014 11:53 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Y'all should love it there...you never seem to lose there.. even during the regular season 03-banghead

But that being said....filling the stadium > filling hotel rooms. Remember the bowl gets the gate from the stadium. The bowl gets a much smaller, and indirect portion of the hotel taxes. For the first year that USA is a legitimate bowl team...the GDB should want them.

Next year could get a bit nasty. Lets say that USA, ULL, Troy, and Ark State all finish with winning records but none of us go access bowl. Ark State probably should be working some phones in that scenario. I think with more bowls that the Belt should get 4 in. Starting the following year, it should be even less of an issue.

In that scenario it would probably come down to records. If ASU and ULL are 9-3 each and troy and USA go 7-5...my guess is ASU and ULL get placed first, with the conference hoping one of them could be siphoned off to an open bowl game scenario.

If No game is open...then I think the weaker record gets left out.

I like how you guys are counting us out. We have a good team and should be the spoiler this year. I will say that Ark State or ULL one of the two is going to lose to Texas State this coming year.

Not counting Texas State out. He gave an example with Troy and USA, so I used his example to explain my theory.

If you would like, we could swap Texas State out for Troy...because I'm not entirely sure Troy is going to be eligible next year.

Have you SEEN Troy's schedule? Its not a guantlet.

Troy with 7 losses. Lets see how we get there. Lose to Duke at home, lose to Georgia on the road. Lose to the three SBC teams they play that finished 6-6 or better last year (at USA, ULL at home, and at ULM). Still need 2 more losses. UAB on the road. Troy is still bowl eligible at this point. Even after that... Troy needs to drop one of the following (Abilene Christian at home, at Idaho, at Georgia Southern, Georgia State at home, NMSU at home, or App at home).

I suppose its possible that Troy isn't bowl eligible next year. But with that schedule......they better'd be eligible.

For Troy, you can pretty much congratulate them on being bowl eligible if they beat UAB on the road in week one.

I have Troy beating UAB, Abeline, NMSU, App, and GSU next year.

I think they lose up in Idaho as their shock loss, and lose at Georgia Southern and ULM.
05-12-2014 01:14 PM
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TroyFootball05 Offline
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Post: #22
RE: New Orleans Bowl 2014 SBC vs MW
(05-12-2014 01:14 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(05-12-2014 12:47 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Have you SEEN Troy's schedule? Its not a guantlet.

I suppose its possible that Troy isn't bowl eligible next year. But with that schedule......they better'd be eligible.

For Troy, you can pretty much congratulate them on being bowl eligible if they beat UAB on the road in week one.

I have Troy beating UAB, Abeline, NMSU, App, and GSU next year.

I think they lose up in Idaho as their shock loss, and lose at Georgia Southern and ULM.

Troy has improved their record every year for the last three years. We ended the season 6-6 and this schedule is significantly easier. We had a record low (probably for anyone in the SBC, ever) returning starters going into last season, 3. Out of 22. Let that sink in. We still managed a 6-6 record and took UL and ASU to the wire. We have 12 coming back and added some top JUCO talent. We bring back 8 of 10 oline, all running backs, and most wide receivers, and added a JUCO All-American receiver, and a three star 6'5" receiver with offers from Missouri and Kentucky. We also added the top three safeties from JUCO's #1 defense (Butler). 11.2 points per game.


Troy is not losing to Idaho or NMSU. Just to give you a frame of reference, if you thought Troy's defense was abismal, consider this:

Arkansas State: 27 ppg
Troy: 36 ppg (Scoring Offense: 34 ppg) (Lose games by avg of 2 ppg)
Georgia State: 37 ppg
Idaho: 47 ppg (Socring Offense: 18 ppg) (Lose games by avg of 29 ppg)
NMSU: 45 ppg

The best offense in the conference is not losing to either of the two worst defenses in the country. Based on the above we should be favored by 27 points, roughly 4 TDs. The mountain air is not going to make us that bad, I promise.

If after all that, if you still don't think we'll win 6 or 7 games, then I'd like to know your reasoning. I'm not saying Troy will win 9 or 10 games. But I believe 6 or 7 games is extremely likely.
(This post was last modified: 05-12-2014 02:19 PM by TroyFootball05.)
05-12-2014 02:18 PM
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Tiguar Offline
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Post: #23
RE: New Orleans Bowl 2014 SBC vs MW
Troy is an amazingly odd team in that they always seem to play to the level of their opponent- no matter how good or bad. There have been some exceptions as of late (MSU last year comes to mind). With this trend, Troy is a team that could be 2-10 or 10-2 any given year depending on bounces.

That said, I think Troy will be 6-6 - 7-5 next year.

I think it is likely USA will wind up 6-6 again. Defense wasn't great last year and we lose some depth but offense improves.
05-12-2014 02:29 PM
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TroyFootball05 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: New Orleans Bowl 2014 SBC vs MW
(05-12-2014 02:29 PM)Tiguar Wrote:  I think it is likely USA will wind up 6-6 again. Defense wasn't great last year and we lose some depth but offense improves.

USA's defense was the best in the conference, by a decent margin.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/leader/818/...ort01.html
05-12-2014 02:33 PM
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Tiguar Offline
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Post: #25
RE: New Orleans Bowl 2014 SBC vs MW
(05-12-2014 02:33 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  
(05-12-2014 02:29 PM)Tiguar Wrote:  I think it is likely USA will wind up 6-6 again. Defense wasn't great last year and we lose some depth but offense improves.

USA's defense was the best in the conference, by a decent margin.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/leader/818/...ort01.html

It seemed to not be good when it mattered, and I think our defensive stats are skewed by getting a ULL team with no starting QB.
05-12-2014 02:35 PM
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chiefsfan Offline
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Post: #26
RE: New Orleans Bowl 2014 SBC vs MW
(05-12-2014 02:18 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  
(05-12-2014 01:14 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(05-12-2014 12:47 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Have you SEEN Troy's schedule? Its not a guantlet.

I suppose its possible that Troy isn't bowl eligible next year. But with that schedule......they better'd be eligible.

For Troy, you can pretty much congratulate them on being bowl eligible if they beat UAB on the road in week one.

I have Troy beating UAB, Abeline, NMSU, App, and GSU next year.

I think they lose up in Idaho as their shock loss, and lose at Georgia Southern and ULM.

Troy has improved their record every year for the last three years. We ended the season 6-6 and this schedule is significantly easier. We had a record low (probably for anyone in the SBC, ever) returning starters going into last season, 3. Out of 22. Let that sink in. We still managed a 6-6 record and took UL and ASU to the wire. We have 12 coming back and added some top JUCO talent. We bring back 8 of 10 oline, all running backs, and most wide receivers, and added a JUCO All-American receiver, and a three star 6'5" receiver with offers from Missouri and Kentucky. We also added the top three safeties from JUCO's #1 defense (Butler). 11.2 points per game.


Troy is not losing to Idaho or NMSU. Just to give you a frame of reference, if you thought Troy's defense was abismal, consider this:

Arkansas State: 27 ppg
Troy: 36 ppg (Scoring Offense: 34 ppg) (Lose games by avg of 2 ppg)
Georgia State: 37 ppg
Idaho: 47 ppg (Socring Offense: 18 ppg) (Lose games by avg of 29 ppg)
NMSU: 45 ppg

The best offense in the conference is not losing to either of the two worst defenses in the country. Based on the above we should be favored by 27 points, roughly 4 TDs. The mountain air is not going to make us that bad, I promise.

If after all that, if you still don't think we'll win 6 or 7 games, then I'd like to know your reasoning. I'm not saying Troy will win 9 or 10 games. But I believe 6 or 7 games is extremely likely.

No Corey Robinson, Defense that has been historically weak. Im not sure Blakeney still has the fire to win as he once did.

Never overlook any game at Idaho. That's a long trip...it will not be easy for anyone.
05-12-2014 02:36 PM
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TroyFootball05 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: New Orleans Bowl 2014 SBC vs MW
(05-12-2014 02:36 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  No Corey Robinson, Defense that has been historically weak. Im not sure Blakeney still has the fire to win as he once did.

Never overlook any game at Idaho. That's a long trip...it will not be easy for anyone.

Fair points. I don't need to explain what we have at QB. We've never had a problem restocking QBs. They've all been phenomenal over the last 8 years. Omar (06/07) and Levi (08/09) both came before Corey and broke records Corey didn't. Corey had some the others didn't. With the most talented stable of QBs we've ever had and almost the entire offense and OC back, I don't share the same concern for the position as you do. Underestimate our QBs as much as you want, you don't have to play them.

The defense probably won't be worse, but the offense should be better and couples with a weaker schedule.

The Idaho trip will most likely be a plane ride. Not a long trip, comparatively speaking.
(This post was last modified: 05-12-2014 02:54 PM by TroyFootball05.)
05-12-2014 02:51 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #28
RE: New Orleans Bowl 2014 SBC vs MW
(05-12-2014 02:35 PM)Tiguar Wrote:  
(05-12-2014 02:33 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  
(05-12-2014 02:29 PM)Tiguar Wrote:  I think it is likely USA will wind up 6-6 again. Defense wasn't great last year and we lose some depth but offense improves.

USA's defense was the best in the conference, by a decent margin.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/leader/818/...ort01.html

It seemed to not be good when it mattered, and I think our defensive stats are skewed by getting a ULL team with no starting QB.

We did give up at the end at Troy, Texas State, and SUU. But by the end of the year, we were pretty good.

I think the defense will be okay. I'm more concerned about QB than anything else.

As far as the record goes, My head says 7-5. My gut says 8-4.

Games where USA should be significant favorites - @Idaho, @App, Ga Southern, Ga State

Games where USA should be favored - Troy, Texas State, @Kent State

Games where USA should be an underdog - Mississippi State, @Arkansas State, Navy.

Games where USA should be a significant underdog - @ULL, @South Carolina.

Of course that means no letdowns in the games that USA is favored in. And we can't start the season off with an upset to a team we should be beating (2012 - UTSA, 2013 - SUU, both after an end of game collapse)

USA at 7-5 (6-2 in conference) would probably get taken by the GDB at least next year. ULL won't be in Mobile. Arkansas State has been there 4 times in a row. Troy has a bowl to play in Montgomery.
(This post was last modified: 05-12-2014 04:16 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
05-12-2014 04:15 PM
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OsageJ Offline
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Post: #29
RE: New Orleans Bowl 2014 SBC vs MW
stAte has been to Mobile 3 in row.
05-12-2014 04:19 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #30
RE: New Orleans Bowl 2014 SBC vs MW
(05-12-2014 04:19 PM)OsageJ Wrote:  stAte has been to Mobile 3 in row.

Still they've been here 3 times in a row. Arkansas State will land somewhere if they're 6-2 in conference.

Last year you deserved the bid because you were the co-champs and lets be honest, the Belt didn't owe WKU anything.
(This post was last modified: 05-12-2014 04:22 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
05-12-2014 04:21 PM
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Louisianafanrcajun90 Offline
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Post: #31
RE: New Orleans Bowl 2014 SBC vs MW
(05-12-2014 12:40 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(05-12-2014 08:27 AM)Cat79 Wrote:  
(05-12-2014 12:48 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(05-11-2014 11:53 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(05-11-2014 10:31 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  ASU will go to the Go Daddy Bowl every year they have us. Our fans love it in Mobile. I think we'd like to get a shot at New Orleans simply because we got stuck with the bowl in the Katrina year and never got to see the whole NOLA experience, but if you told our fan base we would be Go Daddy bound for a 4th straight year, we'd all take it in a heart beat.

I'm also not entirely sure Go Daddy would just take USA for sure. There is a lot to filling hotel rooms, and South fans would not have to travel. An ASU or a ULL would bring much more to an area from an economic sense, and Ticket Sales would work out the same.

I think USA would do well in Montgomery.

Y'all should love it there...you never seem to lose there.. even during the regular season 03-banghead

But that being said....filling the stadium > filling hotel rooms. Remember the bowl gets the gate from the stadium. The bowl gets a much smaller, and indirect portion of the hotel taxes. For the first year that USA is a legitimate bowl team...the GDB should want them.

Next year could get a bit nasty. Lets say that USA, ULL, Troy, and Ark State all finish with winning records but none of us go access bowl. Ark State probably should be working some phones in that scenario. I think with more bowls that the Belt should get 4 in. Starting the following year, it should be even less of an issue.

In that scenario it would probably come down to records. If ASU and ULL are 9-3 each and troy and USA go 7-5...my guess is ASU and ULL get placed first, with the conference hoping one of them could be siphoned off to an open bowl game scenario.

If No game is open...then I think the weaker record gets left out.

I like how you guys are counting us out. We have a good team and should be the spoiler this year. I will say that Ark State or ULL one of the two is going to lose to Texas State this coming year.

I'm not counting you out. But ULL, USA, and Troy now have 'hometown bowls'. That was my point. The three other teams that are looking to compete for a bowl this year (Texas State, ULM, and Arkansas State) should be watching the bowl situation closely. Last year by week 3 it was obvious that there would be no bowl for a SBC team outside the contractual bowls. This year, there's a better chance of that happening.

Ark State travels well, but they've been to the same bowl 4 years running. USA has never been to a bowl, so it will be interesting to see how that shakes out. Especially with a hometown bowl (and one controlled locally). Montgomery, being owned by a network, might have less pressure to play 'homer' on that one.

The NOLA Bowl is by no means our hometown bowl. It's a two hour drive but we Cajun fans do like to have a good time and we buy up hotel rooms, go to restaurants and the younger crowd hit the bars for up to a week before game day. We also have a ton of alumni here in the city. We would bring close to 40,000 to Houston and Mobile. Dallas would probably mean a plane ride so I'm saying 30,000 and father away like Florida about 20,000. I live 40 minutes from Armstrong airport so I'm game for wherever accept for an extremely expensive trip like Hawaii or the Bahamas. I think ASU would bring a good crowd to NOLA. I would like to see the turnout. Just MHO.
05-12-2014 06:55 PM
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