As I'm just back from a week in Houston, I only have time for a high-level scouting report on Tulane.
After losing back-to-back conference series (to Middle Tennessee and ECU) for the first time in memory, and now looking up in the CUSA standings (we're a half game behind UAB and one game back in the loss column to ECU, USM and UTSA), it is imperative that we right the ship this weekend and return to our winning ways if we hope to keep our conference championship streak alive. Unfortunately, we're going to have to find a way to do so without both of our upperclass all-american pitchers (with Jordan Stephens out for the season after Tommy John Surgery and now Zech Lemond is on the shelf indefinitely-- likely through the end of the month and the Finals week break-- with tenderness in the arm), as well as our starting SS (Leon Byrd). Hopefully, the big mid-week road win vs. #7 Texas in Austin will provide a much-needed confidence and momentum boost. With Tulane departing CUSA after this season, this could be our last visit to New Orleans in quite some time. Here's the current CUSA conference standings...
http://www.conferenceusa.com/ot/standings.html#baseball
IMO, but certainly open to debate, the two areas this Rice team needs to improve upon if we are to close the season strong and position ourselves to where we want to be (regional host, CUSA champion) are:
1. Offensive efficiency-- our AVG is actually well above average at .285, BUT...this is offset by ultra-aggressiveness at the plate leading to a below-average walk frequency and a relatively low onbase percentage (currently at .356). Ideally, if a team or player is working the count to their advantage, one's OBP should be about 100 points above one's AVG. Second, after starting the season well in the bunting game, we've hit a horrendous stretch of late (save for the UT game) in which we've failed consistently and miserably in executing the sac bunt. And, as Coach Graham mentioned to some of us earlier this week, "when we bunt well, we win"...and when we don't, we lose. Thirdly, we need to improve our situational hitting considerably. With runners in scoring position with less than two out, the batter has got to put the ball in play-- just about anywhere. We strike out way to often in such situations. With two strikes and runners on base, we need to change our approach at the plate, and concentrate on fouling off ("wasting") pitches and just making contact. Anf, finally, we need to be smarter on the basepaths, and stop our recent penchant for running ourselves out of innings.
2. Pitchers throwing strikes and minimizing the number of free passes-- save for Fox, McDowell and Ditman (up until last weekend), our pitchers have been surrendering way too many walks, especially to batters leading off innings...and the result has all to frequently been the kiss of death. We've got an above-average defense, and most of the opposing offenses we are facing the remainder of the season (save for UTSA) are decidedly below-average. Let's not help them by gifting them runs. Trust your defense, pound the strikezone, and force the opposing team to earn what it gets. Secondly, when ahead in the count 0-2 or 1-2, our pitchers need to stop throwing hittable pitches in the zone. That's the time to try to induce them to swing at a breaking ball out of the strikezone, or a fastball above the letters. We've given up far too many hits-- many for extrabases-- when we get into "pitchers' counts".
Now, on to the scouting report...This has turned into yet another disappointing season for the Tulane Green Wave, who had a Top 25 ranked recruiting class, are led by a trio of quality, upperclass right-handed pitchers (LeBlanc, Massey, McKenzie) and were widely projected to return to the post-season this year. After getting off to a promising 6-0 start to the season, things have gone down hill and precipitously...and the news only got worse earlier this week when Coach Jones announced he'd be sitting out the remainder of the season, on doctors' orders, with an undisclosed illness. Tulane limps into this series having lost six of their last seven games, including back-to-back weekend series to Marshall and UTSA. On Wednesday, Southeast Louisiana beat them for the second time this year (5-1). The Green Wave come into the weekend with an overall 14 - 17 record (9-7 at home, 6-8 in CUSA, 4-9 vs. Top 100), and national rankings of #166 in ISR, #149 in RPI and #127 in Strength of Schedule (vs. Rice's current rankings of #19 ISR, #13 RPI and #16 SoS). Their only quality win all season was a mid-week victory over LSU a couple weeks back. The primary source of their struggles has been on offense, where they rank dead last in CUSA, but their pitching beyond their Friday and Saturday starters and closer has been suspect to say the least, and inconsistent at best. Here's their schedule and results to date...
http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2014/schedule/Tulane
Offensively, Tulane is hitting just .225/.311/.301 as a team (vs. .285/.356/.364 for Rice), with 7 HRs, 50 doubles/triples, 22-29 stolen bases, and averaging just 3.8 runs per game (vs. 5.4 runs/game for the Owls). Only three batters are hitting above .270. They're led by leadoff hitter and speedster Richard Carthon (.304/.411/.357, 5 doubles/triples, 13 RBIs, 9 HBP, 6-7 SBs), Hunter Hope (.294/.336/.412, 2 HRs, 8 doubles, 17 RBI), Garrett Deschamp (.266/.364/.394, 1 HR, 10 doubles/triples, 24 RBI, 8 HBP), Jake Wilsey (.317/.389/.333, 1 RBI) and their one power threat, Andrew Garner (.259/.322/.481, 4 HRs, 11 doubles/triples, 18 RBI). They do not appear to be much of a small ball team either, as only two guys are stolen base threats with neither having attempted more than 7 steals (Carthon is 6-7 in SBs, Alemais is 7-7), and they have but 11 sac bunts all season (vs. 32 for Rice). Compounding their problems (lack of power, low team AVG), Tulane batters do not appear to have much plate discipline-- they've struck out over twice as frequently as they've drawn walks, and are averaging just over 7 strikeouts per game (despite playing to a #129th ranked SoS). What's more, unlike last weekend against ECU, Tulane's largely right-handed lineup presents a favorable matchup against our right-handed pitching staff (save for Fox). Their lineup features just two left-handed hitters and one switch hitter (and two of those are hitting .212 and .135). So long as our pitchers pound the strikezone, and our defense plays steady, we should be able to keep Tulane's run total to a minimum.
Defensively, Tulane infield has been upgraded by the addition of two highly regarded true Freshmen-- SS Stephen Alemais and C Jake Rogers. Alemais has just 6 errors all season at SS and has helped the Green Wave turn 31 double plays, while Rogers has thrown out over 50% of attempted base stealers (22 of 43 caught stealing) and has allowed just 6 passed balls and 18 wild pitches. Overall, Tulane has posted a very solid .969 fielding percentage. They are particularly strong up the middle with Rogers, Alemais and 2B Carthon (just 4 errors). However, their lone defensive vulnerability may be at 3B, where Hunter Hope has committed 11 errors so far this season.
On the mound, as already mentioned above, their upperclass trio of hard-throwing right-handers have been outstanding, but with only a couple other exceptions, the rest of the pitching staff has faltered. Consequently, the staff stats are below-average, especially when considering the level of competition and their strength of schedule: 3.81 ERA, .284 BAA, 2.7 K:BB ratio, and averaging 7.1 strikeouts per game. The one encouraging sign for Tulane is that last year's closer, So RHP Ian Gibaut, has only just recently returned from injury, and has looked good in his first two appearances of the year. Their usual Saturday starter, Randy LeBlanc was a freshman all-american, but has suffered through injuries each of the past two seasons. He features a mid-90s heater, but his out pitch is a "plus" changeup, which he will no doubt use frequently against our right-handed batters. He had arguably his best start of his collegiate career last week against a very good hitting UTSA club (8.0 IP, 4 hits, 0 runs, 0 BBs, 8 Ks). Their Friday starter, Tyler Mapes, also throws mid-90s, and has a solid slider. Both have exceptional control. (Note: Tulane just announced that they will be flipping the order of their weekend rotation against Rice, with LeBlanc starting on Friday and Mapes on Saturday.) Their upperclass closer, Kyle McKenzie, has only appeared in 8 games, but is used as a 3 - 5 inning "stopper" once Tulane gets a lead, and has either won or saved 6 of the 8 games he's appeared in. Fortunately for the Owls, Tulane has just one southpaw pitcher, Emerson Gibbs, who has thrown more than 5.0 innings in 2014, and he has struggled mightily. The as yet unannounced Sunday starter will be either Gibbs or one of their trio of true Freshman right-handed hurlers (Flowers, France, Merrill), though France is the only one of the four who did not see at least 2 innings of action during this past Wednesday's mid-week game.
R.LeBlanc (RS Jr RHP): 8 starts, 3-2, 49.2 IP, 49 hits, 2.17 ERA, .261 BAA, 9 BBs, 42 Ks
T.Mapes (RS Sr, RHP): 7 starts, 4-1, 41.1 IP, 41 hits, 2.18 ERA, .267 BAA, 7 BBs, 5 HBP, 33 Ks
K.McKenzie (RS Sr, RHP): 8 app, 3-0, 3 saves, 27.2 IP, 21 hits (only 1 xtrabases), 1.30 ERA, .210 BAA, 9 BBs, 35 Ks
Z.Flowers (Fr, RHP): 7 app, 1 start, 0-2, 14.0 IP, 19 hits, 2.57 ERA, .339 BAA, 4 BBs, 7 Ks
JP France (Fr, RHP): 10 app, 4 starts, 2-2, 30.0 IP, 31 hits, 5.10 ERA, .274 BAA, 6 BBs, 30 Ks
C.Merrill (Fr, RHP): 8 app, 5 starts, 0-2, 20.0 IP, 20 hits, 5.85 ERA, .291 BAA, 11 BBs, 15 Ks
E.Gibbs (So, LHP): 10 app, 2 starts, 1-2, 1 save, 30.2 IP, 45 hits, 6.46 ERA, .354 BAA, 11 BBs, 18 Ks
It would behoove us to have the lead after the 5th or 6th inning; thereby keeping McKenzie out of the game. Also, given the very good control of most of their pitchers, our aggressiveness at the plate should play to our advantage this weekend.
Here's the Tulane roster and individual/team stats...
http://www.tulanegreenwave.com/sports/m-...l-mtt.html
http://www.tulanegreenwave.com/sports/m-...mcume.html
Here's the game notes from the Tulane website-- and it lists Kevin McCanna as the Friday night starter vs. LeBlanc...
http://www.tulanegreenwave.com/sports/m-...14aaa.html
Let's build on our dominant mid-week road win in Austin this past Tuesday, and recapture our winning ways in conference. Time to reassert of CUSA leadership position. Let's bid Tulane a fond farewell with a resounding weekend series win. Go Owls!
Eric Sorenson ranked the Green Wave #126 in his preseason Top 302 countdown...
Quote:126- TULANE (30-28, 11-13)
2013 ISR: 115
Starters Returning: 5
Weekend Starters: 0
Mid-Week Starters: 1
Key Relievers (15+inns.): 5
With the amount of returnees, last year was s’posed to be a big season. But the Greenies faceplanted, playing middle-of-the-road baseball. Mound studs like Alex Byo, Tony Rizzotti and David Napoli, all sub-3.00 ERAs, have moved on and the infield needs to be totally retooled. Saves stud Ian Gibaut (2-2, 2.66, 12svs) and 10-game starter Randy LeBlanc (4-4, 4.60) will need to be big time.
Baseball America picked C Jake Rogers to be CUSA Freshman of the year...
http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2...rence-usa/
Quote:Freshman of the Year: Jake Rogers, c, Tulane.
Physically and mentally mature beyond his years, Rogers is an athletic backstop with promising catch-and-throw skills and righthanded pop in his bat.
Tulane’s Randy LeBlanc ran his heater up to 94 and showed a superb changeup and improved breaking ball this fall. Fellow righties Alex Massey, Tyler Mapes, J.P. France, Kyle McKenzie and Ian Gibaut also showed 90-plus fastballs in the fall, and if they can all stay healthy, the Green Wave should be outstanding on the mound. Dynamic freshmen Jake Rogers and Stephen Alemais and lightning-fast So. OF Richard Carthon should make Tulane strong up the middle.
Kendall Rogers/Perfect Game picked Tulane to finish 4th in the conference, and picked SS Stephen Alemais as CUSA Freshman of the Year...
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View...ticle=9331
Quote:• TULANE: The Green Wave was expected to take a significant step forward last season, but a surprisingly weak offense and injuries held them back much of the year. With that said, the Green Wave finally is healthy and ready to take charge this season. Tulane welcomes back a very solid weekend rotation with Randy LeBlanc, Alex Massey and Tyler Mapes, with hard-throwing Ian Gibaut (up to 98) manning the closer role. LeBlanc has always had elite talent, but has never been able to stay healthy. He possesses a mid-90s fastball with a plus changeup. Meanwhile, Mapes is a mid-90s pitcher with his fastball, has a solid slider and commands the zone well … Also keep an eye on Emerson Gibbs, who had a strong fall, while in terms of youngsters, shortstop Stephen Alemais is exactly what the Green Wave needs up the middle. He’s a steady defender with a plus run and switch-hitting abilities. Alemais was ranked No. 71 out of high school, No. 1 in the State of New York.
