(03-15-2014 04:15 PM)THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:  Both deserve a bid, heck for that matter so to MTSU, but none will get it. All three are solid teams that would be competitive in the Big Dance, but the love fest with the ACC and BIG along with a few others will take most of the slots.

re: MT, we have a bad loss to a really bad Maine team back in December, so not expecting an at-large to NCAA, hell. Will take a NIT bid, suspect if its NIT we get sent on the road to a power conference school.

(03-15-2014 04:42 PM)HogDawg Wrote:  

(03-15-2014 04:35 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(03-15-2014 04:16 PM)HogDawg Wrote:  

(03-15-2014 12:54 PM)BeliefBlazer Wrote:  Tech 0% chance
USM about 20% if there aren't any more conference tourney upsets


Posted from my mobile device using the CSNbbs App

.....Not trying to start a stink......but logically speaking, why would the NCAA invite USM before inviting LA Tech? Tech beat USM badly (18 pts?) just yesterday, and at least made it to the conference finals. USM did not.

Because USM's resume looks better than La Tech. Granted La Tech beat Oklahoma on the road. That was impressive indeed. USM just have the better numbers (RPI, SOS, etc). That being said, the question you ask is probably the reason why neither La Tech or USM will make the Dance. You can make the argument for both teams to be in then you can absolutely pick either team's resume apart. Not fair but it is what it is.

I don't agree that USM's resume looks better than LA Tech's. I think LA Tech's best win (OU) is better than USM's best win (ND St), and Tech's other big OOC win over St Bonaventure, is probably better than USM's next best win. The two teams' records are about the same.

The RPI and SOS thing has always bothered me, because its so subjective.

Let me back track, I don't think USM's resume looks better than La Tech but their numbers do look better than Tech. I don't think SOS is subjective but the RPI is.

The last of the bid thieves have all lost today. A CU win over Providence will make for an interesting selection show. If you go just by Lunardi, I believe that a Providence loss might be the only chance for USM to get in.

(03-15-2014 04:11 PM)HogDawg Wrote:  

(03-15-2014 01:34 PM)CalallenStang Wrote:  

(03-15-2014 01:24 PM)Funslinger Wrote:  Looks like Southern Miss may be the last team out for the second season in a row. Lunardi has us as the last team out.

The Bracket Matrix, a compilation of over 100 brackets, has us as the last team out.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

First team out. Last team out is probably 1-27 Southern Utah. I think USM could get in. At least into a Dayton "First Four" game.

La Tech, meanwhile, really needed to win today to get in. RPI is too high and they won't have any wins against RPI top 25 to offset the three sub-100 RPI losses (although UTEP and ULL were both close to being top 100 and I suppose could still climb that high depending on results elsewhere). They had a great season and will do a ton of damage in the NIT, but I don't see NCAA in the cards for the Bulldogs this season.

I agree that LA Tech won't "get in" the NCAA tourney. However, I believe Tech's win over Oklahoma is an RPI Top 25, and wins over Southern Miss and Tulsa might count as Top 50-75?

Oklahoma shifted into RPI Top 25 today (they were 27 earlier today when I wrote this) but RPIForecast.com has them forecast to move back to 27 and USM will definitely finish in Top 50. Tulsa will most likely be top 75 as they were forecast to finish at 83 but that forecast was made at the beginning of the day before their win. But really, when you have three "bad losses" (I hate that term), you need to balance that with two to three top 25 RPI wins.

Regardless, it's not going to be enough. And that's a shame, because LaTech has a great team. The schedule just wasn't kind.

(03-15-2014 05:05 PM)St. Patrick Eagle Wrote:  According to the RPI that Lunardi uses UTEP is 95. That will give USM five top 100 wins. The last of the bid thieves have all lost today. A CU win over Providence will make for an interesting selection show. If you go just by Lunardi, I believe that a Providence loss might be the only chance for USM to get in.

Of course, the bubble is different from year to year, but when the Blazers made it into the First Four in 2011, we had 10 Top 100 wins.

(03-15-2014 05:05 PM)St. Patrick Eagle Wrote:  According to the RPI that Lunardi uses UTEP is 95. That will give USM five top 100 wins. The last of the bid thieves have all lost today. A CU win over Providence will make for an interesting selection show. If you go just by Lunardi, I believe that a Providence loss might be the only chance for USM to get in.

Of course, the bubble is different from year to year, but when the Blazers made it into the First Four in 2011, we had 10 Top 100 wins. Now, we are an albatross on the USM resume. That loss cost three spots in the RPI for USM.

USM is good enough to make it. They should be in. If they aren't (again) it'll be a disappointment. If only CUSA was respected more...

We'll have to wait and see till tomorrow though. I expect they'll make it as a 12 seed.

I like La Tech over USM if it came to that. La Tech is clearly better than many teams that will be selected for an at large bid. They have a decent shot with 5 top 100 wins and a signature win over Oklahoma. IF they had won the league outright they would be much closer to a lock IMO.

Gonna be interesting tomorrow, but we have been screwed before. Used to it.

If either Tech or USM do not make it, maybe both will be #1 seeds in the NIT and will play again in the final in New York

USM pros:

-RPI is strong at 33
-10-5 in true road games, 13-6 total away from home
-Top 50 win over ND State
-Won a share of the league title
-12-3 over last 15 games

USM cons:

-Two WTF losses (UAB/WKU)
-Only 3 Top 100 wins (5 if UTEP finishes in Top 100)
-Sagarin rating of 68 (the Selection Committee looks at these ratings, despite not involving them as an official criteria)
-Loss in conference semis
-Best wins: ND State, Georgia State, La Tech
-BCS OOC wins: None

I really wish we could give you our North Carolina and Nebraska wins, and Charlotte's Michigan win...

Can someone reply or message me as to how C-USA distributes their approximately 1.5 mil from each tournament game over six years. The league ODU came from (CAA) did it based on performance.

Teams like Tech that can't shoot FT's worth a crap stay out of the NCAA tourney.

(03-15-2014 05:42 PM)Ole Blue Wrote:  USM is good enough to make it. They should be in. If they aren't (again) it'll be a disappointment. If only CUSA was respected more...

We'll have to wait and see till tomorrow though. I expect they'll make it as a 12 seed.

I hope they get in. I don't believe they will, but I'd be very happy if they do. As a 12 seed, they could certainly pull an upset with the right matchup.

(03-15-2014 04:50 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(03-15-2014 04:42 PM)HogDawg Wrote:  

(03-15-2014 04:35 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(03-15-2014 04:16 PM)HogDawg Wrote:  

(03-15-2014 12:54 PM)BeliefBlazer Wrote:  Tech 0% chance
USM about 20% if there aren't any more conference tourney upsets


Posted from my mobile device using the CSNbbs App

.....Not trying to start a stink......but logically speaking, why would the NCAA invite USM before inviting LA Tech? Tech beat USM badly (18 pts?) just yesterday, and at least made it to the conference finals. USM did not.

Because USM's resume looks better than La Tech. Granted La Tech beat Oklahoma on the road. That was impressive indeed. USM just have the better numbers (RPI, SOS, etc). That being said, the question you ask is probably the reason why neither La Tech or USM will make the Dance. You can make the argument for both teams to be in then you can absolutely pick either team's resume apart. Not fair but it is what it is.

I don't agree that USM's resume looks better than LA Tech's. I think LA Tech's best win (OU) is better than USM's best win (ND St), and Tech's other big OOC win over St Bonaventure, is probably better than USM's next best win. The two teams' records are about the same.

The RPI and SOS thing has always bothered me, because its so subjective.

Let me back track, I don't think USM's resume looks better than La Tech but their numbers do look better than Tech. I don't think SOS is subjective but the RPI is.

RPI is completely objective. No human decisions involved other than setting the formula.

RPI = AWP * 0.25 + opponents' winning percentage * 0.50 + opponents' opponents' winning percentage * 0.25

Nothing in that formula requires human input so it is completely objective. Now you can argue that the formula doesn't give a true representation of a team's value and that it needs to be tweaked. But it is objective, not subjective.

(03-15-2014 01:31 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  You mean first team out?

No. First team out means the first team eliminated from the bubble.

It goes like this:

Last four byes
Last four in
Last four out
Previous four out
...
First four out


It appears that many have forgotten the english language.

If you want to use the word first, then USM would be the "first team not in" which is the same as "last team out".

(03-15-2014 01:34 PM)CalallenStang Wrote:  

(03-15-2014 01:24 PM)Funslinger Wrote:  Looks like Southern Miss may be the last team out for the second season in a row. Lunardi has us as the last team out.

The Bracket Matrix, a compilation of over 100 brackets, has us as the last team out.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

First team out. Last team out is probably 1-27 Southern Utah. I think USM could get in. At least into a Dayton "First Four" game.

La Tech, meanwhile, really needed to win today to get in. RPI is too high and they won't have any wins against RPI top 25 to offset the three sub-100 RPI losses (although UTEP and ULL were both close to being top 100 and I suppose could still climb that high depending on results elsewhere). They had a great season and will do a ton of damage in the NIT, but I don't see NCAA in the cards for the Bulldogs this season.

Negative. Last team out. Get a dictionary. When you are eliminating (that's what out means) teams from consideration, the last one removed is the team just outside the bracket. Warren Nolan is one of the few bracktologists who still understand the english language.

If you are including (that's what in means) teams instead of eliminating them, then Southern Miss would be the first team not in, not the first team out.

(03-15-2014 04:16 PM)HogDawg Wrote:  

(03-15-2014 12:54 PM)BeliefBlazer Wrote:  Tech 0% chance
USM about 20% if there aren't any more conference tourney upsets


Posted from my mobile device using the CSNbbs App

.....Not trying to start a stink......but logically speaking, why would the NCAA invite USM before inviting LA Tech? Tech beat USM badly (18 pts?) just yesterday, and at least made it to the conference finals. USM did not.

Why? USM beat Tech earlier and has an RPI 29 spots higher and a much higher SOS.

(03-15-2014 04:42 PM)HogDawg Wrote:  

(03-15-2014 04:35 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(03-15-2014 04:16 PM)HogDawg Wrote:  

(03-15-2014 12:54 PM)BeliefBlazer Wrote:  Tech 0% chance
USM about 20% if there aren't any more conference tourney upsets


Posted from my mobile device using the CSNbbs App

.....Not trying to start a stink......but logically speaking, why would the NCAA invite USM before inviting LA Tech? Tech beat USM badly (18 pts?) just yesterday, and at least made it to the conference finals. USM did not.

Because USM's resume looks better than La Tech. Granted La Tech beat Oklahoma on the road. That was impressive indeed. USM just have the better numbers (RPI, SOS, etc). That being said, the question you ask is probably the reason why neither La Tech or USM will make the Dance. You can make the argument for both teams to be in then you can absolutely pick either team's resume apart. Not fair but it is what it is.

I don't agree that USM's resume looks better than LA Tech's. I think LA Tech's best win (OU) is better than USM's best win (ND St), and Tech's other big OOC win over St Bonaventure, is probably better than USM's next best win. The two teams' records are about the same.

The RPI and SOS thing has always bothered me, because its so subjective.

There is nothing subjective about either. Both rely on concrete objective statistics. The only subjectivity is choosing the RPI formula. If you want to argue the validity of the formula then go ahead, but you can't argue the objectivity of the RPI standings.

(03-15-2014 04:46 PM)SpaceRaider Wrote:  

(03-15-2014 04:15 PM)THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:  Both deserve a bid, heck for that matter so to MTSU, but none will get it. All three are solid teams that would be competitive in the Big Dance, but the love fest with the ACC and BIG along with a few others will take most of the slots.

re: MT, we have a bad loss to a really bad Maine team back in December, so not expecting an at-large to NCAA, hell. Will take a NIT bid, suspect if its NIT we get sent on the road to a power conference school.

MTSU's NIT chances are about as slim as Southern Miss's NCAA chances. There are already 12 auto bids that won't be making the NCAA tourney leaving only 20 at-large bids. I hope you guys get in.