Thought I would go ahead and get this together as we approach the last three weeks of the year

Standings

Georgia State 11-1
Western Kentucky 9-4
Louisiana Lafayette 8-5
Arkansas State 7-5
Arkansas-Little Rock 7-7
Texas-Arlington 6-6
Louisiana Monroe 5-7
Troy 4-8
Texas State 3-9
South Alabama 2-10


Remaining Games

Georgia State: vs ULM, vs ULL, @ UTA, @ Texas State, @ ASU, vs WKU

Western Kentucky: vs ULM, @ Texas State, @ UTA, vs ULL, @ GSU

Louisiana Lafayette: vs Troy, @ GSU, vs USA, @ WKU, @ ASU

Arkansas State: vs UTA, vs Texas State, @ UALR, vs GSU, vs ULM, vs ULL

Arkansas-Little Rock: vs UTA, @ Troy, vs ASU, vs ULM

Texas-Arlington: @ ASU, @ UALR, vs GSU, vs WKU, @ Troy, @ USA

Louisiana Monroe: @ GSU, @ WKU, vs USA, vs Troy, @ ASU, @ UALR

Troy: @ ULL, @ USA, vs UALR, @ ULM, vs UTA, vs Texas State

Texas State: vs USA, @ ASU, vs WKU, vs GSU, @ USA, @ Troy

South Alabama: @ Texas State, vs Troy, @ ULM, @ ULL, vs Texas State, vs UTA


Scenarios:

1st Place: Georgia State is three wins short of a league title.

2nd Place: WKU has a one game lead over ULL, and a game and a half lead over ASU. With a home game vs the Cajuns remaining, they pretty much control their own destiny on that end. Its notable though that if WKU was to slip up in Atlanta, and ASU wins out, ASU would own the tiebreaker and would clinch 2nd.

3rd Place: Realistically this place is nowhere near decided. ULL has a half game edge on ASU right now, but the Red Wolves have an extra game, and a huge advantage by playing 5 of their last 6 at home. The Cajuns also must travel to Atlanta, Bowling Green, and Jonesboro before the end of the year. Win those, they lock up 2nd. Lose, and they could drop all the way to 5th or 6th.

4th Place: ASU owns this spot for now, but watch out for UALR and UTA. Both have games remaining with ASU, and could easily vault. UALR has a very easy scheduling going in. The Trojans must win the game against ASU in Little Rock if they have any designs on finishing 4th. UTA pretty much has to sweep this week, or split and surprise WKU or GSU at home.


5th-7th. ULM has a crazy hard schedule left, trips to Atlanta and Bowling Green, and both legs of the Arkansas trip the last week of the year. Obviously with a strong finish, they could finish really high. I think however they could be in serious danger of finishing 7 or 8 maybe worse. Winner of the UTA/UALR game has the inside track for 5th, and pretty much eliminates the other from a potential 1st round bye.

8th seed: Barring ULM falling apart, this battle is the most fascinating. USA may be 10th with two wins, but they still have two games left with 9th place Texas State and a home game with 8th place Troy. Win all three of those games, and I think USA is the Alabama school playing in New Orleans. Texas State has an insanely difficult closing stretch, but still has three left vs USA and Troy.

Essentially the best team out of the 4 game round robin between Texas State, Troy, and USA will get the bye. Keep in mind that South must gain an extra game on Troy because Troy owns all tiebreakers after beating Georgia State. You do not want to finish tied with Troy unless you swept the Trojans this year.

Excellent analysis. Who goes to the Big Dance in your humble opinion and what are the chances of two Belt teams dancing?

(02-18-2014 01:14 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  Thought I would go ahead and get this together as we approach the last three weeks of the year

Standings

Georgia State 10-1
Western Kentucky 9-4
Louisiana Lafayette 8-5
Arkansas State 7-6
Arkansas-Little Rock 7-7
Texas-Arlington 6-6
Louisiana Monroe 5-7
Troy 4-8
Texas State 3-8
South Alabama 2-10


Remaining Games

Georgia State: vs ULM, vs ULL, @ UTA, @ Texas State, @ ASU, vs WKU

Western Kentucky: vs ULM, @ Texas State, @ UTA, vs ULL, @ GSU

Louisiana Lafayette: vs Troy, @ GSU, vs USA, @ WKU, @ ASU

Arkansas State: vs UTA, vs Texas State, @ UALR, vs GSU, vs ULM, vs ULL

Arkansas-Little Rock: vs UTA, @ Troy, vs ASU, vs ULM

Texas-Arlington: @ ASU, @ UALR, vs GSU, vs WKU, @ Troy, @ USA

Louisiana Monroe: @ GSU, @ WKU, vs USA, vs Troy, @ ASU, @ UALR

Troy: @ ULL, @ USA, vs UALR, @ ULM, vs UTA, vs Texas State

Texas State: vs USA, @ ASU, vs WKU, vs GSU, @ USA, @ Troy

South Alabama: @ Texas State, vs Troy, @ ULM, @ ULL, vs Texas State, vs UTA


Scenarios:

1st Place: Georgia State is three wins short of a league title.

2nd Place: WKU has a one game lead over ULL, and a game and a half lead over ASU. With a home game vs the Cajuns remaining, they pretty much control their own destiny on that end. Its notable though that if WKU was to slip up in Atlanta, and ASU wins out, ASU would own the tiebreaker and would clinch 2nd.

3rd Place: Realistically this place is nowhere near decided. ULL has a half game edge on ASU right now, but the Red Wolves have an extra game, and a huge advantage by playing 5 of their last 6 at home. The Cajuns also must travel to Atlanta, Bowling Green, and Jonesboro before the end of the year. Win those, they lock up 2nd. Lose, and they could drop all the way to 5th or 6th.

4th Place: ASU owns this spot for now, but watch out for UALR and UTA. Both have games remaining with ASU, and could easily vault. UALR has a very easy scheduling going in. The Trojans must win the game against ASU in Little Rock if they have any designs on finishing 4th. UTA pretty much has to sweep this week, or split and surprise WKU or GSU at home.


5th-7th. ULM has a crazy hard schedule left, trips to Atlanta and Bowling Green, and both legs of the Arkansas trip the last week of the year. Obviously with a strong finish, they could finish really high. I think however they could be in serious danger of finishing 7 or 8 maybe worse. Winner of the UTA/UALR game has the inside track for 5th, and pretty much eliminates the other from a potential 1st round bye.

8th seed: Barring ULM falling apart, this battle is the most fascinating. USA may be 10th with two wins, but they still have two games left with 9th place Texas State and a home game with 8th place Troy. Win all three of those games, and I think USA is the Alabama school playing in New Orleans. Texas State has an insanely difficult closing stretch, but still has three left vs USA and Troy.

Essentially the best team out of the 4 game round robin between Texas State, Troy, and USA will get the bye. Keep in mind that South must gain an extra game on Troy because Troy owns all tiebreakers after beating Georgia State. You do not want to finish tied with Troy unless you swept the Trojans this year.

Georgia state is 11-1 after the win last night. I'm not sure how that changes the rest of your analysis....but I noticed you didn't mention last night's game against Texas State in your "remaining games" so I couldn't tell whether you accounted for it or not.

This will be a one bid league with the tourney winner going to the dance. Georgia Sts to lose but I can easily see an upset and someone else going.

Is it still basketball season??? South really laid an egg this year.

So glad baseball and softball season are here, hopefully we can put this basketball season behind us, quickly.

Will still be rooting on whatever SBC teams make it into post season tournaments.

Our loss @Troy probably sealed the SBC as a one-bid league this year, and even before that we might have been an OOC win or two short of the situation leading to multiple bids. I'm hoping we hold up in New Orleans. At the very least, I'm glad the SBC has a conference tourney model that really rewards regular season results. It's one of the best I've seen.

I likely see the top four seeds being

(1) Georgai State

(2/3) WKU, stAte,

(4) Cajuns

(02-18-2014 01:14 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  Standings
Arkansas State 7-6

What is Arkansas State's conf. record again?

(02-18-2014 10:39 AM)asuwon Wrote:  

(02-18-2014 01:14 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  Standings
Arkansas State 7-6

What is Arkansas State's conf. record again?

He's just knotching up early that season-ending loss to the Cajuns.

That's what I get for typing out a post that long at 1am.