(02-22-2014 04:45 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(02-21-2014 03:30 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The bigger issues facing us all (P5) have only a little to do with realignment or who we choose or fail to get. It has to do with the social milieu. The largest portion of the fan base are Baby Boomers. Baby Boomers while causing many of the social ills are now having to face the mess that they intentionally and inadvertently created.

Boomers left the family businesses behind and looked for lucrative jobs in large companies. The large companies utilized the Boomer education factor (which was significant) to grow larger. Boomers voted to deregulate business restrictions because they were the majority and it affected their companies. In comes Reagan, out go regulations. In comes H.W. Bush and in comes a solidification of the marriage of government and corporate enterprise. With Clinton, a member of the same political think tank as the Bush's, we get NAFTA which opens the door for China through its companies set up in Canada and provides for a cheap labor source through Mexico. W Bush pushes this even further and we begin to see the dissipation of family business which doesn't receive the same tax breaks as those purchased by their larger chain competitors. The source of cheap labor balloons and the deregulation of the banks hits a peak allowing for inflationary measures to spur Wall Street in spite of large trade deficits and a growing national debt. Multinational corporations can now use treaties to suck the wealth out of the nation and into regions where taxation rates favor them. Under W record numbers of foreign exchange students find their way into the U.S. where they work on degrees and research. The numbers coupled with a second baby boom that occurred between 1988 and 2000 swells the ranks in college further inflating the cost of an education. Unfortunately mixed in with some of those foreign students engaged in research studies are spies who send information home that destroys patent rights held in the U.S. & Europe and which compromises other R&D. Corporate interests builds the infrastructure of China and China becomes a major trafficker in counterfeited goods cutting corporate profits at a time when the purchasing power of the average American consumer is falling due to rising energy costs as Chinese with jobs start buying cars and fuel increasing the demand upon petroleum products, and buying imported food directly affecting costs in the rest of the world including the U.S. The downturn in credit usage coupled with Boomer retirements in 2006 and ballooning in 2009 become the main stressors in the banking crisis. Derivatives and gross misconduct lead to financial instruments that are hard to trace and even harder to value and which have been a multiplier on the balance sheet allowing banks to hold less actual funds in reserve at the very time that Boomers who are facing higher inflation and sagging stock values try to liquidate their portfolios in order to provide for their retirement. When portfolios are showing declines the Boomers in large numbers opt to sell second homes to boost disposable income or lessen obligations. Now we add a large glut of high priced homes to an underemployed marketplace. A mortgage industry already in questionable standing because of business practices hits its limits and the housing bubble that had existed pops and coupled with the product coming on the market from retirees the market collapses.

In comes the Obama administration promising change but delivering more of the same. Confidence tanks and Affordable Health Care is offered to take stress off of one of the last bastions of capital left, the insurance companies, which face with the retirement of the Boomers record payouts of insurance policies both due to death and to the cashing in of policies for cash value. Limited payback plans can go into place but that would erode consumer confidence in their products. Along with retirement of Boomers go all of those company guaranteed health care plans that will have to pay out major amounts in retirement as Boomers face life ending issues. Health Care bails out those companies to an extent both through the limitations placed on services offered and because the mere passage of it permits major corporations to transition out of providing employees health care packages.

So how does this affect our conferences? While alive the WWII generation contributed 75% of all charitable contributions in our society. The WWII generation attended church in high percentages. The WWII generation held little debt and actually owned what they owned. Only 1 in 4 of their children go to church and the Boomers are the first generation to head into retirement with net debt. The 1 in 4 Boomers that attend church only give 25% of the total givings to the organization. So what does church have to do with anything? The contributions to churches roughly parallel other charitable and philanthropic contributions. That means that as Boomers retire all subsequent generations only contribute around 5% of all charitable funds. Corporations are now the leading donors to charitable and philanthropic endeavors. The reason for this is because today's generation of young men and women who are becoming adults and having families are paid less on average than preceding generations when the purchasing power of their income is taken into consideration. This is a first for our nation. They face higher inflation (even though government statistics won't show it due to the government not considering food and fuel as part of inflation stats) than we did. And there are more of them competing for fewer jobs. Therefore they can't afford (in the numbers that we did) to buy expensive tickets to athletic events or to contribute large sums for athletic club donations. So it brings us to a conflict that has to be resolved.

Schools will rely more and more upon corporate grants and donations. The government is already having to feed a national debt that is out of control and the revenues, due to shrinking jobs and underemployment, are less. If Boomer demand and television have driven college athletic prices to their present rates, the forces that will force them down are already in place. Studies have proven that once fans quit buying tickets it is very difficult to get them to start doing it again. As Boomer's die out if we don't replace them with younger people the industry that is college sports will die as a commercial enterprise. Since tickets are too expensive for young families those kids will not be developed as a customer base. In 25 years the decline will be concretized. We have a short window to do the intelligent thing, offer cheaper tickets for young families in an attempt to bridge the loss of the Boomers with new generations of fans. To miss this window of opportunity is to doom the sports themselves as marketable products.

Piggybacking on these issues is the discontent and mistrust of a nation. Realignment, which started as a social interest has turned into a turn off for many fans of marginalized schools. This too is going to add to declining numbers. Therefore it is in the interest of all of the conferences to complete and end realignment as soon as is possible, to offer a long period of stasis, to encourage young family participation, and to try to regrow both a base of support and a demand for their product. How crucial all of this is can not be overstated.

People will have to make much tougher choices about their expenses in the future, entertainment will be one of the first budget lines that will be cut. Live entertainment because of cost will go before TV will. The best leverage our schools have for their contracts is their popularity. Keeping it is crucial. People are tired of change. Stasis is needed. Larger conferences have more leverage. Further realignment will occur. It's time to get it done. We are losing customers and future business by waiting.

So the biggest issues facing realignment right now are ending it as soon as possible and making our product an affordable part of the culture of our youngest adults and their families.

Well put.
A couple of things that are of great concern is:
With increased corporate involvement, will the university athletic departments be able to stay "independent"?
and more importantly, where is the money going to come from?
If fans aren't going to come back with higher pricing structures, will FOX and ESPN (CBS & NBC too) continue to pay higher and higher TV rights fees?
If prices are lowered and TV won't pay more, the outrageous salaries paid to coaches will have to end. This should actaully help to level the playing field for all P5 schools.

XLance my belief is that athletic departments have already lost a large degree of their independence. The coaches are way way overpaid and I totally agree that lowering their salaries will go a long way to leveling part of the playing field. Coming soon to a pro venue near you will be lower salaries as well. When the days of multi-million dollar signing bonuses are gone so too will be the expectations of high school signees and when that happens then the playing field will indeed be leveler. It might even lead once again to the understanding that the chance for the education is the best way to get ahead. Wouldn't that be a hoot. Here's hoping! In every crisis there is an opportunity indeed. But, scaling back is the hardest thing for a bureaucracy to do so we'll have to wait and see. Our financial crisis wouldn't be insurmountable if only the bureaucracy of our government had decided to follow that course of action way back in the mid 60's instead of funding a war we didn't try to win and trying to buy off past transgressions through the "Great Society Programs". If past performance is any indication of future behavior the schools and athletic departments will price themselves out of business before they ever think that a supply side solution would work. You sell cheaper tickets and make up part of the loss on concessions and merchandise sales. But then they aren't business people really, they're educators.

As to the networks I don't think they ever intended to keep paying more. If the P5 breakaway and escape the bureaucracy of the NCAA and form a cartel then they will have some leverage to keep TV money up. It's still a popular product that has low overhead and little use of reruns and the public likes that. If we continue to negotiate our contracts separately we'll wind up making less. But the only thing that will drive down the TV money legitimately would be a reduction in advertising rates, or profits. That could happen, but I don't think it is tied to the product as much as to the overall economy.

JR, the way I see it, is that it is up to the SEC to take the bull by the horns and provide the leadership that the P5 needs.
The B1G had the opportunity and blew it when they selected Nebraska (which was a predictable choice). If they had really added a school that looked like "them" (Iowa State, Missouri, Rutgers) instead of trying to buy football cache'. The B1G then signaled that expansion or if your prefer realignment was all about money and "markets" as opposed to institutional "fit"..........I know, I know the Big 8 should never have taken in the 4 from the SWC when it folded.
I also realize that for me to say so is kind of like the pot calling the kettle black, in that the ACC bought a football program when they added Florida State.
Can we stay at 14, 14, 14, 10 and 12? Probably. Will it be a stable situation? Maybe.

I think the PAC is stable at 12. They have really no place to go and no one is a threat to leave. They won't go beyond 12 if Texas won't come, which won't happen. I suppose that Cal and Stanford can live with Utah.
If the Big 12 (which is a train wreck waiting to happen) could get Nebraska back from the B1G and either Missouri or Arkansas from the SEC (and then keep the Texas ego in check), it would be a killer conference with stability, but we both know that is very unlikely.
The B1G. Quite frankly, I could care less.
The SEC and the ACC both have schools that should be in the others conference. Florida State belongs in the SEC. South Carolina and Vanderbilt should be in the ACC. I'm not sure any of this will ever get worked out especially with ESPN calling the shots

(03-01-2014 01:04 PM)XLance Wrote:  JR, the way I see it, is that it is up to the SEC to take the bull by the horns and provide the leadership that the P5 needs.
The B1G had the opportunity and blew it when they selected Nebraska (which was a predictable choice). If they had really added a school that looked like "them" (Iowa State, Missouri, Rutgers) instead of trying to buy football cache'. The B1G then signaled that expansion or if your prefer realignment was all about money and "markets" as opposed to institutional "fit"..........I know, I know the Big 8 should never have taken in the 4 from the SWC when it folded.
I also realize that for me to say so is kind of like the pot calling the kettle black, in that the ACC bought a football program when they added Florida State.
Can we stay at 14, 14, 14, 10 and 12? Probably. Will it be a stable situation? Maybe.

I think the PAC is stable at 12. They have really no place to go and no one is a threat to leave. They won't go beyond 12 if Texas won't come, which won't happen. I suppose that Cal and Stanford can live with Utah.
If the Big 12 (which is a train wreck waiting to happen) could get Nebraska back from the B1G and either Missouri or Arkansas from the SEC (and then keep the Texas ego in check), it would be a killer conference with stability, but we both know that is very unlikely.
The B1G. Quite frankly, I could care less.
The SEC and the ACC both have schools that should be in the others conference. Florida State belongs in the SEC. South Carolina and Vanderbilt should be in the ACC. I'm not sure any of this will ever get worked out especially with ESPN calling the shots

There is only 1 way out of this mess for the SEC and ACC and it will require adding our way out of it. And, the addition will have to be plus six for 1 (minus 2) and plus two for the other, perhaps even a plus 7 and minus 3. Let's lay out a few hypothetical situations some of which will be familiar to you and some that won't be.

ACC Plus 6 minus 2: This workaround brings the most balance between the two conferences and is familiar to you already.
ACC adds Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas State, T.C.U., and Texas Tech. They give up Virginia Tech and N.C. State to the SEC. The SEC also adds Kansas and Oklahoma State.

Variation: Plus 7 minus 3: To the six listed above the you add West Virginia and you give up in addition to N.C. State and Virginia Tech, Miami.

SEC Plus 7 minus 3: This workaround shifts the balance of power away from parity and toward SEC domination:

The SEC adds Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas, Texas Tech. Gives up Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina. The ACC adds West Virginia.

The problem with the last scenario is that the ACC gets weaker in the biggest money making sport thereby weakening it's standing monetarily and making the defections of Virginia Tech, Florida State and Clemson all the more likely.

Both of the first two workarounds only make the ACC stronger. I think the only way you get Texas is with friends, and enough of them to build a division geographically suited to the Longhorns. If the SEC acquired markets in Virginia and North Carolina they wouldn't care. The only way to do it without giving up a North Carolina and Virginia school would be to do something like this: Texas (all sports but football), Rice (for Houston), Texas Tech (because they are a state school and will be a requirement), T.C.U. (for DFW), and Baylor (due to politics). The SEC could then take Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and West Virginia. The two left would be Kansas with a sure home in the Big 10 and Iowa State as an AAU travel companion.

Nobody is given up. Texas becomes an ACC state with enough schools to make it a no brainer for the Longhorns who keep OU as a cross conference SEC rival. OU stays with OSU. Kansas State has a home. The ACC has a network (not some streaming scheme). The SEC picks up 3 states and a national brand with 4 athletic programs that operate in the black. It ends realignment for the SEC and ACC. The SEC has three divisions of 6. The ACC has only 1 problem easily solved as they have 4 divisions of 5 but Texas plays in the West division and Notre Dame in the North against 4 of their 6 required ACC opponents. Their other two required games rotate. If Notre Dame or Texas wins their division they are in the Conference Championship playoffs.

Boston College, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Wake Forest

Baylor, Rice, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

The SEC would then have this:

Arkansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia

Oklahoma would have a path to the Conference Playoffs without having head to head with traditional SEC powers (a Stoops issue).

Alabama, Auburn, and L.S.U. are still fighting it out but with Vanderbilt added to the division making the balancing issue the fact that they would stand a decent shot in any given year at landing the wild card spot in the conference championship round.

The East becomes a competitive 5 team race most years (depending on whether Kentucky remains weak or not).

(03-01-2014 02:39 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-01-2014 01:04 PM)XLance Wrote:  JR, the way I see it, is that it is up to the SEC to take the bull by the horns and provide the leadership that the P5 needs.
The B1G had the opportunity and blew it when they selected Nebraska (which was a predictable choice). If they had really added a school that looked like "them" (Iowa State, Missouri, Rutgers) instead of trying to buy football cache'. The B1G then signaled that expansion or if your prefer realignment was all about money and "markets" as opposed to institutional "fit"..........I know, I know the Big 8 should never have taken in the 4 from the SWC when it folded.
I also realize that for me to say so is kind of like the pot calling the kettle black, in that the ACC bought a football program when they added Florida State.
Can we stay at 14, 14, 14, 10 and 12? Probably. Will it be a stable situation? Maybe.

I think the PAC is stable at 12. They have really no place to go and no one is a threat to leave. They won't go beyond 12 if Texas won't come, which won't happen. I suppose that Cal and Stanford can live with Utah.
If the Big 12 (which is a train wreck waiting to happen) could get Nebraska back from the B1G and either Missouri or Arkansas from the SEC (and then keep the Texas ego in check), it would be a killer conference with stability, but we both know that is very unlikely.
The B1G. Quite frankly, I could care less.
The SEC and the ACC both have schools that should be in the others conference. Florida State belongs in the SEC. South Carolina and Vanderbilt should be in the ACC. I'm not sure any of this will ever get worked out especially with ESPN calling the shots

There is only 1 way out of this mess for the SEC and ACC and it will require adding our way out of it. And, the addition will have to be plus six for 1 (minus 2) and plus two for the other, perhaps even a plus 7 and minus 3. Let's lay out a few hypothetical situations some of which will be familiar to you and some that won't be.

ACC Plus 6 minus 2: This workaround brings the most balance between the two conferences and is familiar to you already.
ACC adds Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas State, T.C.U., and Texas Tech. They give up Virginia Tech and N.C. State to the SEC. The SEC also adds Kansas and Oklahoma State.

Variation: Plus 7 minus 3: To the six listed above the you add West Virginia and you give up in addition to N.C. State and Virginia Tech, Miami.

SEC Plus 7 minus 3: This workaround shifts the balance of power away from parity and toward SEC domination:

The SEC adds Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas, Texas Tech. Gives up Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina. The ACC adds West Virginia.

The problem with the last scenario is that the ACC gets weaker in the biggest money making sport thereby weakening it's standing monetarily and making the defections of Virginia Tech, Florida State and Clemson all the more likely.

Both of the first two workarounds only make the ACC stronger. I think the only way you get Texas is with friends, and enough of them to build a division geographically suited to the Longhorns. If the SEC acquired markets in Virginia and North Carolina they wouldn't care. The only way to do it without giving up a North Carolina and Virginia school would be to do something like this: Texas (all sports but football), Rice (for Houston), Texas Tech (because they are a state school and will be a requirement), T.C.U. (for DFW), and Baylor (due to politics). The SEC could then take Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and West Virginia. The two left would be Kansas with a sure home in the Big 10 and Iowa State as an AAU travel companion.

Nobody is given up. Texas becomes an ACC state with enough schools to make it a no brainer for the Longhorns who keep OU as a cross conference SEC rival. OU stays with OSU. Kansas State has a home. The ACC has a network (not some streaming scheme). The SEC picks up 3 states and a national brand with 4 athletic programs that operate in the black. It ends realignment for the SEC and ACC. The SEC has three divisions of 6. The ACC has only 1 problem easily solved as they have 4 divisions of 5 but Texas plays in the West division and Notre Dame in the North against 4 of their 6 required ACC opponents. Their other two required games rotate. If Notre Dame or Texas wins their division they are in the Conference Championship playoffs.

Boston College, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Wake Forest

Baylor, Rice, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

The SEC would then have this:

Arkansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia

Oklahoma would have a path to the Conference Playoffs without having head to head with traditional SEC powers (a Stoops issue).

Alabama, Auburn, and L.S.U. are still fighting it out but with Vanderbilt added to the division making the balancing issue the fact that they would stand a decent shot in any given year at landing the wild card spot in the conference championship round.

The East becomes a competitive 5 team race most years (depending on whether Kentucky remains weak or not).

Even though I know that Swofford wants a contiguous conference, I know that in order to have a home for everybody the ACC will end up with Texas teams. That's a lot of inventory for ESPN.
It's going to be really interesting so see just how much ESPN will be willing to bid for the B1G. I expect Delany to try "something" BEFORE the negotiations.

(03-01-2014 05:47 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-01-2014 02:39 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-01-2014 01:04 PM)XLance Wrote:  JR, the way I see it, is that it is up to the SEC to take the bull by the horns and provide the leadership that the P5 needs.
The B1G had the opportunity and blew it when they selected Nebraska (which was a predictable choice). If they had really added a school that looked like "them" (Iowa State, Missouri, Rutgers) instead of trying to buy football cache'. The B1G then signaled that expansion or if your prefer realignment was all about money and "markets" as opposed to institutional "fit"..........I know, I know the Big 8 should never have taken in the 4 from the SWC when it folded.
I also realize that for me to say so is kind of like the pot calling the kettle black, in that the ACC bought a football program when they added Florida State.
Can we stay at 14, 14, 14, 10 and 12? Probably. Will it be a stable situation? Maybe.

I think the PAC is stable at 12. They have really no place to go and no one is a threat to leave. They won't go beyond 12 if Texas won't come, which won't happen. I suppose that Cal and Stanford can live with Utah.
If the Big 12 (which is a train wreck waiting to happen) could get Nebraska back from the B1G and either Missouri or Arkansas from the SEC (and then keep the Texas ego in check), it would be a killer conference with stability, but we both know that is very unlikely.
The B1G. Quite frankly, I could care less.
The SEC and the ACC both have schools that should be in the others conference. Florida State belongs in the SEC. South Carolina and Vanderbilt should be in the ACC. I'm not sure any of this will ever get worked out especially with ESPN calling the shots

There is only 1 way out of this mess for the SEC and ACC and it will require adding our way out of it. And, the addition will have to be plus six for 1 (minus 2) and plus two for the other, perhaps even a plus 7 and minus 3. Let's lay out a few hypothetical situations some of which will be familiar to you and some that won't be.

ACC Plus 6 minus 2: This workaround brings the most balance between the two conferences and is familiar to you already.
ACC adds Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas State, T.C.U., and Texas Tech. They give up Virginia Tech and N.C. State to the SEC. The SEC also adds Kansas and Oklahoma State.

Variation: Plus 7 minus 3: To the six listed above the you add West Virginia and you give up in addition to N.C. State and Virginia Tech, Miami.

SEC Plus 7 minus 3: This workaround shifts the balance of power away from parity and toward SEC domination:

The SEC adds Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas, Texas Tech. Gives up Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina. The ACC adds West Virginia.

The problem with the last scenario is that the ACC gets weaker in the biggest money making sport thereby weakening it's standing monetarily and making the defections of Virginia Tech, Florida State and Clemson all the more likely.

Both of the first two workarounds only make the ACC stronger. I think the only way you get Texas is with friends, and enough of them to build a division geographically suited to the Longhorns. If the SEC acquired markets in Virginia and North Carolina they wouldn't care. The only way to do it without giving up a North Carolina and Virginia school would be to do something like this: Texas (all sports but football), Rice (for Houston), Texas Tech (because they are a state school and will be a requirement), T.C.U. (for DFW), and Baylor (due to politics). The SEC could then take Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and West Virginia. The two left would be Kansas with a sure home in the Big 10 and Iowa State as an AAU travel companion.

Nobody is given up. Texas becomes an ACC state with enough schools to make it a no brainer for the Longhorns who keep OU as a cross conference SEC rival. OU stays with OSU. Kansas State has a home. The ACC has a network (not some streaming scheme). The SEC picks up 3 states and a national brand with 4 athletic programs that operate in the black. It ends realignment for the SEC and ACC. The SEC has three divisions of 6. The ACC has only 1 problem easily solved as they have 4 divisions of 5 but Texas plays in the West division and Notre Dame in the North against 4 of their 6 required ACC opponents. Their other two required games rotate. If Notre Dame or Texas wins their division they are in the Conference Championship playoffs.

Boston College, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Wake Forest

Baylor, Rice, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

The SEC would then have this:

Arkansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia

Oklahoma would have a path to the Conference Playoffs without having head to head with traditional SEC powers (a Stoops issue).

Alabama, Auburn, and L.S.U. are still fighting it out but with Vanderbilt added to the division making the balancing issue the fact that they would stand a decent shot in any given year at landing the wild card spot in the conference championship round.

The East becomes a competitive 5 team race most years (depending on whether Kentucky remains weak or not).

Even though I know that Swofford wants a contiguous conference, I know that in order to have a home for everybody the ACC will end up with Texas teams. That's a lot of inventory for ESPN.
It's going to be really interesting so see just how much ESPN will be willing to bid for the B1G. I expect Delany to try "something" BEFORE the negotiations.

It is a lot of inventory for ESPN. They maximize the content for all of their broadcasts and for their networks and the SECN and perhaps a morphed LHN (New ACCN) while leasing as much content as they desire to FOX. They could pay to expand the SEC to 20 if they desired and simply add Kansas and Iowa State as well. By leaving Delany Kansas they leave negotiating room with Delany on the table. I don't think the ACC goes to 20, or the SEC to 18 until ESPN sees where they stand with the Big 10.

But, if I'm the ACC I have to have Texas out of this deal. I've got to have the most profitable bookend in college sports to go with Notre Dame, I want the football rabid schools of Texas with their 26 million dedicated viewers, and if I'm ESPN turning the Red River Shootout into another SEC / ACC showdown is a win win. If I'm the ACC I'm hoping that Delany and ESPN stay at odds. If the Big 10 makes a great offer to ESPN then I could see Oklahoma and Kansas going to the Big 10. Texas and crew going to the ACC and the movement of two ACC properties to the SEC in return. To work it between those 3 conferences Oklahoma State and Kansas State might make the SEC 18.

I could see Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa State and Connecticut to the Big 10 for 18. Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, Texas Christian, and West Virginia to the ACC for 16 full and two hybrid. Two ACC schools and Kansas State and Oklahoma State to the SEC for 18. The PAC could move to 14 or 16 in time but since the networks are not as intimately involved with them I think they would be fine at 12.

But any scenario in which Texas does not move to the ACC leaves the ACC vulnerable. Let's say old initial workarounds are attempted. Texas, Oklahoma, & Oklahoma State to the SEC for 16. SEC yields either Vanderbilt or South Carolina to the ACC and you guys pick up West Virginia. Without the Big 10 picking up Kansas and Iowa State it's DOA. Without the PAC picking up the other leftover Texas schools it's DOA. I don't see that kind of cooperation. That is why I say either the SEC grows by 4 and the ACC by 4 and a partial and the deal gets done. Or the ACC grows by 6 minus 2 and the SEC by the two ACC schools and two Big 12 schools. Either of those is effective in eliminating the Big 12.

If you throw Delany into the mix with ESPN serving as a broker the Big 12 could still be dissolved but likely not with the same benefit to the ACC. With Delany in the mix Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas are all in play for the Big 10. If the Big 10 takes two of those and stops at 16 there isn't enough of value on the Table for the SEC to be interested unless the remainder of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas came on board with perhaps Oklahoma State. Then there is nothing for the ACC to pick from but WVU. That's not enough. All three would have to move to 18 out of the Big 12 to get it done. And if that happens somebody is leaving the ACC.

The only option I see as acceptable for you guys is Texas plus the four other Texas schools discussed above while the SEC picks up at least Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, and one of West Virginia, Iowa State, and Kansas State. I suppose if the Network made it profitable we could pick up all of them and move to 20 too.

But I don't see anything equitable or beneficial for the ACC coming out of the dissolution of the Big 12 if three conferences are involved. Keep it in house between the SEC and ACC and both can win.

(03-01-2014 05:47 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-01-2014 02:39 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-01-2014 01:04 PM)XLance Wrote:  JR, the way I see it, is that it is up to the SEC to take the bull by the horns and provide the leadership that the P5 needs.
The B1G had the opportunity and blew it when they selected Nebraska (which was a predictable choice). If they had really added a school that looked like "them" (Iowa State, Missouri, Rutgers) instead of trying to buy football cache'. The B1G then signaled that expansion or if your prefer realignment was all about money and "markets" as opposed to institutional "fit"..........I know, I know the Big 8 should never have taken in the 4 from the SWC when it folded.
I also realize that for me to say so is kind of like the pot calling the kettle black, in that the ACC bought a football program when they added Florida State.
Can we stay at 14, 14, 14, 10 and 12? Probably. Will it be a stable situation? Maybe.

I think the PAC is stable at 12. They have really no place to go and no one is a threat to leave. They won't go beyond 12 if Texas won't come, which won't happen. I suppose that Cal and Stanford can live with Utah.
If the Big 12 (which is a train wreck waiting to happen) could get Nebraska back from the B1G and either Missouri or Arkansas from the SEC (and then keep the Texas ego in check), it would be a killer conference with stability, but we both know that is very unlikely.
The B1G. Quite frankly, I could care less.
The SEC and the ACC both have schools that should be in the others conference. Florida State belongs in the SEC. South Carolina and Vanderbilt should be in the ACC. I'm not sure any of this will ever get worked out especially with ESPN calling the shots

There is only 1 way out of this mess for the SEC and ACC and it will require adding our way out of it. And, the addition will have to be plus six for 1 (minus 2) and plus two for the other, perhaps even a plus 7 and minus 3. Let's lay out a few hypothetical situations some of which will be familiar to you and some that won't be.

ACC Plus 6 minus 2: This workaround brings the most balance between the two conferences and is familiar to you already.
ACC adds Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas State, T.C.U., and Texas Tech. They give up Virginia Tech and N.C. State to the SEC. The SEC also adds Kansas and Oklahoma State.

Variation: Plus 7 minus 3: To the six listed above the you add West Virginia and you give up in addition to N.C. State and Virginia Tech, Miami.

SEC Plus 7 minus 3: This workaround shifts the balance of power away from parity and toward SEC domination:

The SEC adds Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas, Texas Tech. Gives up Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina. The ACC adds West Virginia.

The problem with the last scenario is that the ACC gets weaker in the biggest money making sport thereby weakening it's standing monetarily and making the defections of Virginia Tech, Florida State and Clemson all the more likely.

Both of the first two workarounds only make the ACC stronger. I think the only way you get Texas is with friends, and enough of them to build a division geographically suited to the Longhorns. If the SEC acquired markets in Virginia and North Carolina they wouldn't care. The only way to do it without giving up a North Carolina and Virginia school would be to do something like this: Texas (all sports but football), Rice (for Houston), Texas Tech (because they are a state school and will be a requirement), T.C.U. (for DFW), and Baylor (due to politics). The SEC could then take Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and West Virginia. The two left would be Kansas with a sure home in the Big 10 and Iowa State as an AAU travel companion.

Nobody is given up. Texas becomes an ACC state with enough schools to make it a no brainer for the Longhorns who keep OU as a cross conference SEC rival. OU stays with OSU. Kansas State has a home. The ACC has a network (not some streaming scheme). The SEC picks up 3 states and a national brand with 4 athletic programs that operate in the black. It ends realignment for the SEC and ACC. The SEC has three divisions of 6. The ACC has only 1 problem easily solved as they have 4 divisions of 5 but Texas plays in the West division and Notre Dame in the North against 4 of their 6 required ACC opponents. Their other two required games rotate. If Notre Dame or Texas wins their division they are in the Conference Championship playoffs.

Boston College, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Wake Forest

Baylor, Rice, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

The SEC would then have this:

Arkansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia

Oklahoma would have a path to the Conference Playoffs without having head to head with traditional SEC powers (a Stoops issue).

Alabama, Auburn, and L.S.U. are still fighting it out but with Vanderbilt added to the division making the balancing issue the fact that they would stand a decent shot in any given year at landing the wild card spot in the conference championship round.

The East becomes a competitive 5 team race most years (depending on whether Kentucky remains weak or not).

Even though I know that Swofford wants a contiguous conference, I know that in order to have a home for everybody the ACC will end up with Texas teams. That's a lot of inventory for ESPN.
It's going to be really interesting so see just how much ESPN will be willing to bid for the B1G. I expect Delany to try "something" BEFORE the negotiations.

The ACC really needs to get new inventory if they want to start a network. Expansion, especially to 20, would give them enough to do it without having to untangle all the ESPN sold rights that ESPN then sold to Raycom and others.

(03-02-2014 10:35 PM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  

(03-01-2014 05:47 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-01-2014 02:39 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-01-2014 01:04 PM)XLance Wrote:  JR, the way I see it, is that it is up to the SEC to take the bull by the horns and provide the leadership that the P5 needs.
The B1G had the opportunity and blew it when they selected Nebraska (which was a predictable choice). If they had really added a school that looked like "them" (Iowa State, Missouri, Rutgers) instead of trying to buy football cache'. The B1G then signaled that expansion or if your prefer realignment was all about money and "markets" as opposed to institutional "fit"..........I know, I know the Big 8 should never have taken in the 4 from the SWC when it folded.
I also realize that for me to say so is kind of like the pot calling the kettle black, in that the ACC bought a football program when they added Florida State.
Can we stay at 14, 14, 14, 10 and 12? Probably. Will it be a stable situation? Maybe.

I think the PAC is stable at 12. They have really no place to go and no one is a threat to leave. They won't go beyond 12 if Texas won't come, which won't happen. I suppose that Cal and Stanford can live with Utah.
If the Big 12 (which is a train wreck waiting to happen) could get Nebraska back from the B1G and either Missouri or Arkansas from the SEC (and then keep the Texas ego in check), it would be a killer conference with stability, but we both know that is very unlikely.
The B1G. Quite frankly, I could care less.
The SEC and the ACC both have schools that should be in the others conference. Florida State belongs in the SEC. South Carolina and Vanderbilt should be in the ACC. I'm not sure any of this will ever get worked out especially with ESPN calling the shots

There is only 1 way out of this mess for the SEC and ACC and it will require adding our way out of it. And, the addition will have to be plus six for 1 (minus 2) and plus two for the other, perhaps even a plus 7 and minus 3. Let's lay out a few hypothetical situations some of which will be familiar to you and some that won't be.

ACC Plus 6 minus 2: This workaround brings the most balance between the two conferences and is familiar to you already.
ACC adds Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas State, T.C.U., and Texas Tech. They give up Virginia Tech and N.C. State to the SEC. The SEC also adds Kansas and Oklahoma State.

Variation: Plus 7 minus 3: To the six listed above the you add West Virginia and you give up in addition to N.C. State and Virginia Tech, Miami.

SEC Plus 7 minus 3: This workaround shifts the balance of power away from parity and toward SEC domination:

The SEC adds Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas, Texas Tech. Gives up Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina. The ACC adds West Virginia.

The problem with the last scenario is that the ACC gets weaker in the biggest money making sport thereby weakening it's standing monetarily and making the defections of Virginia Tech, Florida State and Clemson all the more likely.

Both of the first two workarounds only make the ACC stronger. I think the only way you get Texas is with friends, and enough of them to build a division geographically suited to the Longhorns. If the SEC acquired markets in Virginia and North Carolina they wouldn't care. The only way to do it without giving up a North Carolina and Virginia school would be to do something like this: Texas (all sports but football), Rice (for Houston), Texas Tech (because they are a state school and will be a requirement), T.C.U. (for DFW), and Baylor (due to politics). The SEC could then take Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and West Virginia. The two left would be Kansas with a sure home in the Big 10 and Iowa State as an AAU travel companion.

Nobody is given up. Texas becomes an ACC state with enough schools to make it a no brainer for the Longhorns who keep OU as a cross conference SEC rival. OU stays with OSU. Kansas State has a home. The ACC has a network (not some streaming scheme). The SEC picks up 3 states and a national brand with 4 athletic programs that operate in the black. It ends realignment for the SEC and ACC. The SEC has three divisions of 6. The ACC has only 1 problem easily solved as they have 4 divisions of 5 but Texas plays in the West division and Notre Dame in the North against 4 of their 6 required ACC opponents. Their other two required games rotate. If Notre Dame or Texas wins their division they are in the Conference Championship playoffs.

Boston College, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Wake Forest

Baylor, Rice, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

The SEC would then have this:

Arkansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia

Oklahoma would have a path to the Conference Playoffs without having head to head with traditional SEC powers (a Stoops issue).

Alabama, Auburn, and L.S.U. are still fighting it out but with Vanderbilt added to the division making the balancing issue the fact that they would stand a decent shot in any given year at landing the wild card spot in the conference championship round.

The East becomes a competitive 5 team race most years (depending on whether Kentucky remains weak or not).

Even though I know that Swofford wants a contiguous conference, I know that in order to have a home for everybody the ACC will end up with Texas teams. That's a lot of inventory for ESPN.
It's going to be really interesting so see just how much ESPN will be willing to bid for the B1G. I expect Delany to try "something" BEFORE the negotiations.

The ACC really needs to get new inventory if they want to start a network. Expansion, especially to 20, would give them enough to do it without having to untangle all the ESPN sold rights that ESPN then sold to Raycom and others.

If you were going to expand the ACC to 20 and the SEC to 20 out of the Big 12 plus 1 current team outside of the P5 how would you do it?

(03-02-2014 11:38 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-02-2014 10:35 PM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  

(03-01-2014 05:47 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-01-2014 02:39 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-01-2014 01:04 PM)XLance Wrote:  JR, the way I see it, is that it is up to the SEC to take the bull by the horns and provide the leadership that the P5 needs.
The B1G had the opportunity and blew it when they selected Nebraska (which was a predictable choice). If they had really added a school that looked like "them" (Iowa State, Missouri, Rutgers) instead of trying to buy football cache'. The B1G then signaled that expansion or if your prefer realignment was all about money and "markets" as opposed to institutional "fit"..........I know, I know the Big 8 should never have taken in the 4 from the SWC when it folded.
I also realize that for me to say so is kind of like the pot calling the kettle black, in that the ACC bought a football program when they added Florida State.
Can we stay at 14, 14, 14, 10 and 12? Probably. Will it be a stable situation? Maybe.

I think the PAC is stable at 12. They have really no place to go and no one is a threat to leave. They won't go beyond 12 if Texas won't come, which won't happen. I suppose that Cal and Stanford can live with Utah.
If the Big 12 (which is a train wreck waiting to happen) could get Nebraska back from the B1G and either Missouri or Arkansas from the SEC (and then keep the Texas ego in check), it would be a killer conference with stability, but we both know that is very unlikely.
The B1G. Quite frankly, I could care less.
The SEC and the ACC both have schools that should be in the others conference. Florida State belongs in the SEC. South Carolina and Vanderbilt should be in the ACC. I'm not sure any of this will ever get worked out especially with ESPN calling the shots

There is only 1 way out of this mess for the SEC and ACC and it will require adding our way out of it. And, the addition will have to be plus six for 1 (minus 2) and plus two for the other, perhaps even a plus 7 and minus 3. Let's lay out a few hypothetical situations some of which will be familiar to you and some that won't be.

ACC Plus 6 minus 2: This workaround brings the most balance between the two conferences and is familiar to you already.
ACC adds Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas State, T.C.U., and Texas Tech. They give up Virginia Tech and N.C. State to the SEC. The SEC also adds Kansas and Oklahoma State.

Variation: Plus 7 minus 3: To the six listed above the you add West Virginia and you give up in addition to N.C. State and Virginia Tech, Miami.

SEC Plus 7 minus 3: This workaround shifts the balance of power away from parity and toward SEC domination:

The SEC adds Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas, Texas Tech. Gives up Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina. The ACC adds West Virginia.

The problem with the last scenario is that the ACC gets weaker in the biggest money making sport thereby weakening it's standing monetarily and making the defections of Virginia Tech, Florida State and Clemson all the more likely.

Both of the first two workarounds only make the ACC stronger. I think the only way you get Texas is with friends, and enough of them to build a division geographically suited to the Longhorns. If the SEC acquired markets in Virginia and North Carolina they wouldn't care. The only way to do it without giving up a North Carolina and Virginia school would be to do something like this: Texas (all sports but football), Rice (for Houston), Texas Tech (because they are a state school and will be a requirement), T.C.U. (for DFW), and Baylor (due to politics). The SEC could then take Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and West Virginia. The two left would be Kansas with a sure home in the Big 10 and Iowa State as an AAU travel companion.

Nobody is given up. Texas becomes an ACC state with enough schools to make it a no brainer for the Longhorns who keep OU as a cross conference SEC rival. OU stays with OSU. Kansas State has a home. The ACC has a network (not some streaming scheme). The SEC picks up 3 states and a national brand with 4 athletic programs that operate in the black. It ends realignment for the SEC and ACC. The SEC has three divisions of 6. The ACC has only 1 problem easily solved as they have 4 divisions of 5 but Texas plays in the West division and Notre Dame in the North against 4 of their 6 required ACC opponents. Their other two required games rotate. If Notre Dame or Texas wins their division they are in the Conference Championship playoffs.

Boston College, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Wake Forest

Baylor, Rice, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

The SEC would then have this:

Arkansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia

Oklahoma would have a path to the Conference Playoffs without having head to head with traditional SEC powers (a Stoops issue).

Alabama, Auburn, and L.S.U. are still fighting it out but with Vanderbilt added to the division making the balancing issue the fact that they would stand a decent shot in any given year at landing the wild card spot in the conference championship round.

The East becomes a competitive 5 team race most years (depending on whether Kentucky remains weak or not).

Even though I know that Swofford wants a contiguous conference, I know that in order to have a home for everybody the ACC will end up with Texas teams. That's a lot of inventory for ESPN.
It's going to be really interesting so see just how much ESPN will be willing to bid for the B1G. I expect Delany to try "something" BEFORE the negotiations.

The ACC really needs to get new inventory if they want to start a network. Expansion, especially to 20, would give them enough to do it without having to untangle all the ESPN sold rights that ESPN then sold to Raycom and others.

If you were going to expand the ACC to 20 and the SEC to 20 out of the Big 12 plus 1 current team outside of the P5 how would you do it?

Assuming: 1) The ACC has to have Texas and the Longhorn administration aversion to the SEC is real and not a fallacy; 2) That the B1G and PAC are not players that could take any schools; 3) That the ACC is still averse to adding WVU; 4) ESPN tells the ACC and SEC which combo of schools they would pay for; 5) The ACC doesn't give up any schools to the SEC; 6) ND stays partial member. You would need 12 schools (more if UT goes ND route) added so at least 2 from outside the B12.

With Texas as a full member:
SEC adds: Kansas, OSU, Texas Tech, Iowa State, WVU, East Carolina/New Mexico
ACC adds: Texas, OU, Baylor, Kansas State, TCU, Cincinnati

With Texas as a partial member:
SEC adds: Kansas, OSU, Texas Tech, Iowa State, WVU, East Carolina/New Mexico
ACC adds: Texas (partial), OU, Baylor, Kansas State, TCU, Cincinnati, Connecticut

Reasoning: ACC needs more football and UT and OU give them that. Baylor and TCU are the condition of getting Texas. KSU gives them a new state for their footprint and a school in the west with solid FB. Cincinnati was tough over Uconn, but they are a bridge school and get the ACC into Ohio. If Texas is a partial member then they add Connecticut as well.

The SEC gets the basketball blue blood they desperately need and the ACC doesn't. TTU is the 3rd most popular school in Texas. It covers west Texas so paired with A&M (east TX) you have both eastern and western halves of Texas covered. ISU, WVU, OSU get you into new states for your network, all are better than the SEC average in BB and WVU and OSU have had top 25 FB programs for awhile. East Carolina gets the SEC into North Carolina and ECU has a strong FB following which could quickly grow into the biggest in NC in the SEC. Alternately, since you already went into west Texas you could go a little further and add New Mexico who has a good BB program and is in a growing state with no other P5 schools. Probably would depend on which side needed an extra school to balance the divisions.

The ACC ends up with the two most valuable schools from the B12, but the bottom 3 as well. SEC adds 3rd to 7th most valuable schools from the B12. OU and UT upgrade ACC FB and KU does the same for SEC BB.

Ideally, how I would do it if the ACC was willing to give up a couple schools and ESPN would pay to make it happen in order to strengthen both conferences the most.

With Texas as a full member:
SEC adds: Kansas, OSU, Texas Tech, WVU, Virginia Tech and NC State.
ACC adds: Texas, OU, Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State, TCU, Cincinnati, Connecticut
ACC loses: Virginia Tech and NC State

With Texas as a partial member:
SEC adds: Kansas, OSU, Texas Tech, WVU, Virginia Tech and NC State.
ACC adds: Texas (partial), OU, Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State, TCU, Cincinnati, Connecticut, BYU
ACC loses: Virginia Tech and NC State

Reasoning: The ACC has too many schools in NC so losing one would not hurt the ACC at all and VA has 2 schools and could lose one without hurting the ACC. UVA is more valuable of the 2 and a founding member so they keep them. Also allows them to take more western schools for that side of the ACC. BYU is most valuable school outside the P5 and UT and ND like them.

SEC gets into VA and NC like they so greatly desire.

If my above happened I think you would end up with a PAC/B1G merger eventually at 24 schools. There would be no school of value left for the B1G to add and stay contiguous and the PAC would have to reach for quite a few G5 schools to get to 16 even. That 24 team conference would be a monster though.

Also ideally for the ACC and ESPN, ND is forced all in and you could drop one school from the ACC adds I listed.

(03-03-2014 12:51 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  If my above happened I think you would end up with a PAC/B1G merger eventually at 24 schools. There would be no school of value left for the B1G to add and stay contiguous and the PAC would have to reach for quite a few G5 schools to get to 16 even. That 24 team conference would be a monster though.

Also ideally for the ACC and ESPN, ND is forced all in and you could drop one school from the ACC adds I listed.

That's interesting. I agree the plus 6 minus two works best. I don't think however that the ACC needs to add beyond 18 full members and 2 partials.

Your reasoning on the balance of value is interesting. I do think that as long as the SEC adds Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kansas and Iowa State to the footprint and solidifies Texas it would be a win.

Using your selections the conferences would break down this way: (however I don't think we would add ECU when there are others on the table.)
SEC:
Iowa State, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Cincinnati, Vanderbilt, West Virginia
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee

ACC:
Boston College, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Wake Forest
Baylor, Kansas, State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Christian

The Best Solution with this set would be this:

SEC:
Arkansas, Iowa State, Kansas, Missouri, Texas Tech
Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina

ACC:
Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Christian
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Wake Forest
Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia
Boston College, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

The SEC West would provide Arkansas, Missouri and Texas Tech a chance to shine in football. The basketball in the Western Division would be very competitive by SEC terms. Kansas and Iowa State would have a chance to improve football in that division.

West Virginia to the ACC in spite of snarkiness from the past because they reconnect their footprint after the defection of Maryland. And let's face it Connecticut or Cincinnati would be fine additions here, but UConn makes that Northern Division of the ACC more compact and Louisville already delivers part of the Cincy market area.

Thoughts?

One other thing. Eventually Texas and Notre Dame will join fully. There's no need to add two more. Until they join fully they can simply access the ACC championship / playoff tie in by winning their division which would comprise 4 of their 6 required conference games.

Now, what do I think will really happen? When either the GOR's have expired, been adjudicated less effective than previously believed, or the networks intervene for the shaping of product, or a breakaway occurs then eventually anytime between the next two years and the next 12 this might happen.

Texas and Oklahoma eventually join the SEC. It's what we've been after since 1992. By adding Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Missouri we've set up a division for them that would also include L.S.U. and the Mississippi schools separating them from the traditional SEC powers other than L.S.U. and giving them in the Western Division the conference they always wanted anyway. Plus by their simple addition the SEC would become solidified as the top earning conference.

The Big 10 adds Kansas, and eventually North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia to get to 18. And when they do the SEC finally picks up N.C. State and Virginia Tech. Why does U.N.C. eventually go Big 10? Money, academics, and because Virginia and Duke will lean that way. By that time North Carolina's latest scandal over academic fraud for athletic eligibility will have their leaders refocused on making a purely academic decision.

The Big 12 and ACC remnants form a new conference that looks like this:

Boston College, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia (Former Big East Division)
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, Wake Forest (Former ACC Division)
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, T.C.U. (Former Big 12 Division)
*Notre Dame remains an independent attached to this conference.

The PAC 12 stays at 12 and eventually grows to 14 with a Nevada school and a compliant B.Y.U.. They work to develop Hawaii and New Mexico. So initially the P5 is comprised of 66 schools then grows to 68 and eventually to 70, plus Notre Dame.

The New SEC:
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia Tech

The New Big 10:
Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Penn State, Rutgers, Virginia
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue
Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

(03-03-2014 04:15 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Now, what do I think will really happen? When either the GOR's have expired, been adjudicated less effective than previously believed, or the networks intervene for the shaping of product, or a breakaway occurs then eventually anytime between the next two years and the next 12 this might happen.

Texas and Oklahoma eventually join the SEC. It's what we've been after since 1992. By adding Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Missouri we've set up a division for them that would also include L.S.U. and the Mississippi schools separating them from the traditional SEC powers other than L.S.U. and giving them in the Western Division the conference they always wanted anyway. Plus by their simple addition the SEC would become solidified as the top earning conference.

The Big 10 adds Kansas, and eventually North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia to get to 18. And when they do the SEC finally picks up N.C. State and Virginia Tech. Why does U.N.C. eventually go Big 10? Money, academics, and because Virginia and Duke will lean that way. By that time North Carolina's latest scandal over academic fraud for athletic eligibility will have their leaders refocused on making a purely academic decision.

The Big 12 and ACC remnants form a new conference that looks like this:

Boston College, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia (Former Big East Division)
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, Wake Forest (Former ACC Division)
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, T.C.U. (Former Big 12 Division)
*Notre Dame remains an independent attached to this conference.

The PAC 12 stays at 12 and eventually grows to 14 with a Nevada school and a compliant B.Y.U.. They work to develop Hawaii and New Mexico. So initially the P5 is comprised of 66 schools then grows to 68 and eventually to 70, plus Notre Dame.

The New SEC:
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia Tech

The New Big 10:
Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Penn State, Rutgers, Virginia
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue
Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

If the ACC does ever come apart, you are right in that Carolina and Virginia would never join the SEC, no offense to our former Southern Conference mates. The only think that would thow a chink into the otherwise very well laid out plan..... is Georgia Tech. If Carolina, UVa and Dook move to the B1G, I would look for Tech to try to tag along too (just a FYI).
But I don't think that ESPN has any desire to give up the bulk of viewers in the mid-atlantic. Besides your line-up only weakens the SEC in that it will create another really good football conference with viewership in three distinct parts of the country and hems in the growth potential of the SEC network. It also gives the B1G access to the South. The question then becomes: do the massive gains in the Texas market(with Texas and Oklahoma) outweigh the potential gains of the B1G in the South (especially if the B1G gets access to Georgia (Georgia Tech) or one of the two ACC Florida Schools.
Sometimes it's better to stick with the devil you know than the devil you don't.

(03-03-2014 03:58 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-03-2014 04:15 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Now, what do I think will really happen? When either the GOR's have expired, been adjudicated less effective than previously believed, or the networks intervene for the shaping of product, or a breakaway occurs then eventually anytime between the next two years and the next 12 this might happen.

Texas and Oklahoma eventually join the SEC. It's what we've been after since 1992. By adding Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Missouri we've set up a division for them that would also include L.S.U. and the Mississippi schools separating them from the traditional SEC powers other than L.S.U. and giving them in the Western Division the conference they always wanted anyway. Plus by their simple addition the SEC would become solidified as the top earning conference.

The Big 10 adds Kansas, and eventually North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia to get to 18. And when they do the SEC finally picks up N.C. State and Virginia Tech. Why does U.N.C. eventually go Big 10? Money, academics, and because Virginia and Duke will lean that way. By that time North Carolina's latest scandal over academic fraud for athletic eligibility will have their leaders refocused on making a purely academic decision.

The Big 12 and ACC remnants form a new conference that looks like this:

Boston College, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia (Former Big East Division)
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, Wake Forest (Former ACC Division)
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, T.C.U. (Former Big 12 Division)
*Notre Dame remains an independent attached to this conference.

The PAC 12 stays at 12 and eventually grows to 14 with a Nevada school and a compliant B.Y.U.. They work to develop Hawaii and New Mexico. So initially the P5 is comprised of 66 schools then grows to 68 and eventually to 70, plus Notre Dame.

The New SEC:
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia Tech

The New Big 10:
Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Penn State, Rutgers, Virginia
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue
Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

If the ACC does ever come apart, you are right in that Carolina and Virginia would never join the SEC, no offense to our former Southern Conference mates. The only think that would thow a chink into the otherwise very well laid out plan..... is Georgia Tech. If Carolina, UVa and Dook move to the B1G, I would look for Tech to try to tag along too (just a FYI).
But I don't think that ESPN has any desire to give up the bulk of viewers in the mid-atlantic. Besides your line-up only weakens the SEC in that it will create another really good football conference with viewership in three distinct parts of the country and hems in the growth potential of the SEC network. The addition of Carolina and UVa (and Dook in hoops) only serve to give the B1G a foothold in a new market, and if Georgia Tech tags along too.......there are tons of midwesterners in Atlanta.
You might want to stick with the devil that you know and can work with rather than try to win a three conference war, because the PAC will join up with the B1G and it won't be pretty.

I'm not worried about that. The PAC is only second to the ACC in market potential and only second to the ACC in failing to be able to deliver their own footprint. The Big 10 doesn't have a football product outside of 4 schools and added to the 4 with the PAC still won't have much. The SEC would have all of the growing markets outside of the West Coast and the melding of the best products with which to monopolize that market. The competitiveness of the conference would still be there to entice viewers from the other demographics just as it does now. The SEC would still have 6 slots of its own with which to form a 24 team conference. Clemson, Florida State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, and Louisville would do nicely. Georgia Tech even in the Big 10 wouldn't carry Atlanta in the numbers that Georgia does so what the heck. Southern kids aren't going North to play for 1 game a year in their home town. If the Big 10 wanted Syracuse, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Boston College to get to 30 with the PAC in tow so what. 7 of the 10 most profitable college sports brands in the nation would be residing in the SEC and 14 of the top 20. Yeah if it came to that I'm sure we would rue the day. ESPN would have the best market saturation of any region in the growing Southeast with hands down the best product in the nation, at the cost of just 24 schools.

Since the days of the Southern Conference U.N.C., Duke, and Virginia have been seeking the path of least resistance for football and concentrating on hoops. If they ever joined the Big 10 they would be where they fit the best.

ESPN now has fulfilled their obligation on the ACCN through streaming. That gets them out of the 2 million extra for not providing a network. It doesn't make the ACC competitive. If Texas lands in the ACC and the LHN becomes the ACCN everything changes. If not disparity will reign and the expiration of the GOR will become a garage sale for the Big 10 and SEC. If the ACC doesn't land Texas their best option would be the reformation of the Southern Conference. Should the SEC promise to take Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Florida State and either Miami and Louisville or Texas and Oklahoma we are at 24. The next option although less profitable would be to add the remainder of Louisville and Miami along with Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, Wake Forest to 30. Throw in Rice and Tulane to 32 and for a little strength balancing and we start to challenge the Big 10 for AAU presence.

My post was to say that there is only 1 way to 4 conferences of relative strength. The only way there with the ACC remaining intact is through Texas and Oklahoma winding up in the ACC. An 18 team SEC and an 18 team ACC holds firm. Outside of that too much disparity will remain for the viability of 4 conferences to be the ultimate outcome.

(03-03-2014 04:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-03-2014 03:58 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-03-2014 04:15 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Now, what do I think will really happen? When either the GOR's have expired, been adjudicated less effective than previously believed, or the networks intervene for the shaping of product, or a breakaway occurs then eventually anytime between the next two years and the next 12 this might happen.

Texas and Oklahoma eventually join the SEC. It's what we've been after since 1992. By adding Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Missouri we've set up a division for them that would also include L.S.U. and the Mississippi schools separating them from the traditional SEC powers other than L.S.U. and giving them in the Western Division the conference they always wanted anyway. Plus by their simple addition the SEC would become solidified as the top earning conference.

The Big 10 adds Kansas, and eventually North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia to get to 18. And when they do the SEC finally picks up N.C. State and Virginia Tech. Why does U.N.C. eventually go Big 10? Money, academics, and because Virginia and Duke will lean that way. By that time North Carolina's latest scandal over academic fraud for athletic eligibility will have their leaders refocused on making a purely academic decision.

The Big 12 and ACC remnants form a new conference that looks like this:

Boston College, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia (Former Big East Division)
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, Wake Forest (Former ACC Division)
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, T.C.U. (Former Big 12 Division)
*Notre Dame remains an independent attached to this conference.

The PAC 12 stays at 12 and eventually grows to 14 with a Nevada school and a compliant B.Y.U.. They work to develop Hawaii and New Mexico. So initially the P5 is comprised of 66 schools then grows to 68 and eventually to 70, plus Notre Dame.

The New SEC:
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia Tech

The New Big 10:
Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Penn State, Rutgers, Virginia
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue
Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

If the ACC does ever come apart, you are right in that Carolina and Virginia would never join the SEC, no offense to our former Southern Conference mates. The only think that would thow a chink into the otherwise very well laid out plan..... is Georgia Tech. If Carolina, UVa and Dook move to the B1G, I would look for Tech to try to tag along too (just a FYI).
But I don't think that ESPN has any desire to give up the bulk of viewers in the mid-atlantic. Besides your line-up only weakens the SEC in that it will create another really good football conference with viewership in three distinct parts of the country and hems in the growth potential of the SEC network. The addition of Carolina and UVa (and Dook in hoops) only serve to give the B1G a foothold in a new market, and if Georgia Tech tags along too.......there are tons of midwesterners in Atlanta.
You might want to stick with the devil that you know and can work with rather than try to win a three conference war, because the PAC will join up with the B1G and it won't be pretty.

I'm not worried about that. The PAC is only second to the ACC in market potential and only second to the ACC in failing to be able to deliver their own footprint. The Big 10 doesn't have a football product outside of 4 schools and added to the 4 with the PAC still won't have much. The SEC would have all of the growing markets outside of the West Coast and the melding of the best products with which to monopolize that market. The competitiveness of the conference would still be there to entice viewers from the other demographics just as it does now. The SEC would still have 6 slots of its own with which to form a 24 team conference. Clemson, Florida State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, and Louisville would do nicely. Georgia Tech even in the Big 10 wouldn't carry Atlanta in the numbers that Georgia does so what the heck. Southern kids aren't going North to play for 1 game a year in their home town. If the Big 10 wanted Syracuse, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Boston College to get to 30 with the PAC in tow so what. 7 of the 10 most profitable college sports brands in the nation would be residing in the SEC and 14 of the top 20. Yeah if it came to that I'm sure we would rue the day. ESPN would have the best market saturation of any region in the growing Southeast with hands down the best product in the nation, at the cost of just 24 schools.

Since the days of the Southern Conference U.N.C., Duke, and Virginia have been seeking the path of least resistance for football and concentrating on hoops. If they ever joined the Big 10 they would be where they fit the best.

ESPN now has fulfilled their obligation on the ACCN through streaming. That gets them out of the 2 million extra for not providing a network. It doesn't make the ACC competitive. If Texas lands in the ACC and the LHN becomes the ACCN everything changes. If not disparity will reign and the expiration of the GOR will become a garage sale for the Big 10 and SEC. If the ACC doesn't land Texas their best option would be the reformation of the Southern Conference. Should the SEC promise to take Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Florida State and either Miami and Louisville or Texas and Oklahoma we are at 24. The next option although less profitable would be to add the remainder of Louisville and Miami along with Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, Wake Forest to 30. Throw in Rice and Tulane to 32 and for a little strength balancing and we start to challenge the Big 10 for AAU presence.

My post was to say that there is only 1 way to 4 conferences of relative strength. The only way there with the ACC remaining intact is through Texas and Oklahoma winding up in the ACC. An 18 team SEC and an 18 team ACC holds firm. Outside of that too much disparity will remain for the viability of 4 conferences to be the ultimate outcome.

Texas as a partial to the ACC and Oklahoma to the SEC seem to be a more likely scenario to me.

(03-03-2014 05:04 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-03-2014 04:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-03-2014 03:58 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-03-2014 04:15 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Now, what do I think will really happen? When either the GOR's have expired, been adjudicated less effective than previously believed, or the networks intervene for the shaping of product, or a breakaway occurs then eventually anytime between the next two years and the next 12 this might happen.

Texas and Oklahoma eventually join the SEC. It's what we've been after since 1992. By adding Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Missouri we've set up a division for them that would also include L.S.U. and the Mississippi schools separating them from the traditional SEC powers other than L.S.U. and giving them in the Western Division the conference they always wanted anyway. Plus by their simple addition the SEC would become solidified as the top earning conference.

The Big 10 adds Kansas, and eventually North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia to get to 18. And when they do the SEC finally picks up N.C. State and Virginia Tech. Why does U.N.C. eventually go Big 10? Money, academics, and because Virginia and Duke will lean that way. By that time North Carolina's latest scandal over academic fraud for athletic eligibility will have their leaders refocused on making a purely academic decision.

The Big 12 and ACC remnants form a new conference that looks like this:

Boston College, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia (Former Big East Division)
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, Wake Forest (Former ACC Division)
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, T.C.U. (Former Big 12 Division)
*Notre Dame remains an independent attached to this conference.

The PAC 12 stays at 12 and eventually grows to 14 with a Nevada school and a compliant B.Y.U.. They work to develop Hawaii and New Mexico. So initially the P5 is comprised of 66 schools then grows to 68 and eventually to 70, plus Notre Dame.

The New SEC:
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia Tech

The New Big 10:
Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Penn State, Rutgers, Virginia
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue
Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

If the ACC does ever come apart, you are right in that Carolina and Virginia would never join the SEC, no offense to our former Southern Conference mates. The only think that would thow a chink into the otherwise very well laid out plan..... is Georgia Tech. If Carolina, UVa and Dook move to the B1G, I would look for Tech to try to tag along too (just a FYI).
But I don't think that ESPN has any desire to give up the bulk of viewers in the mid-atlantic. Besides your line-up only weakens the SEC in that it will create another really good football conference with viewership in three distinct parts of the country and hems in the growth potential of the SEC network. The addition of Carolina and UVa (and Dook in hoops) only serve to give the B1G a foothold in a new market, and if Georgia Tech tags along too.......there are tons of midwesterners in Atlanta.
You might want to stick with the devil that you know and can work with rather than try to win a three conference war, because the PAC will join up with the B1G and it won't be pretty.

I'm not worried about that. The PAC is only second to the ACC in market potential and only second to the ACC in failing to be able to deliver their own footprint. The Big 10 doesn't have a football product outside of 4 schools and added to the 4 with the PAC still won't have much. The SEC would have all of the growing markets outside of the West Coast and the melding of the best products with which to monopolize that market. The competitiveness of the conference would still be there to entice viewers from the other demographics just as it does now. The SEC would still have 6 slots of its own with which to form a 24 team conference. Clemson, Florida State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, and Louisville would do nicely. Georgia Tech even in the Big 10 wouldn't carry Atlanta in the numbers that Georgia does so what the heck. Southern kids aren't going North to play for 1 game a year in their home town. If the Big 10 wanted Syracuse, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Boston College to get to 30 with the PAC in tow so what. 7 of the 10 most profitable college sports brands in the nation would be residing in the SEC and 14 of the top 20. Yeah if it came to that I'm sure we would rue the day. ESPN would have the best market saturation of any region in the growing Southeast with hands down the best product in the nation, at the cost of just 24 schools.

Since the days of the Southern Conference U.N.C., Duke, and Virginia have been seeking the path of least resistance for football and concentrating on hoops. If they ever joined the Big 10 they would be where they fit the best.

ESPN now has fulfilled their obligation on the ACCN through streaming. That gets them out of the 2 million extra for not providing a network. It doesn't make the ACC competitive. If Texas lands in the ACC and the LHN becomes the ACCN everything changes. If not disparity will reign and the expiration of the GOR will become a garage sale for the Big 10 and SEC. If the ACC doesn't land Texas their best option would be the reformation of the Southern Conference. Should the SEC promise to take Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Florida State and either Miami and Louisville or Texas and Oklahoma we are at 24. The next option although less profitable would be to add the remainder of Louisville and Miami along with Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, Wake Forest to 30. Throw in Rice and Tulane to 32 and for a little strength balancing and we start to challenge the Big 10 for AAU presence.

My post was to say that there is only 1 way to 4 conferences of relative strength. The only way there with the ACC remaining intact is through Texas and Oklahoma winding up in the ACC. An 18 team SEC and an 18 team ACC holds firm. Outside of that too much disparity will remain for the viability of 4 conferences to be the ultimate outcome.

Texas as a partial to the ACC and Oklahoma to the SEC seem to be a more likely scenario to me.

The only way that happens is if Oklahoma State also comes to the SEC. You can't have Texas and Oklahoma State in the same conference with Oklahoma in another. The Sooners would find it too hard to schedule both. So if the SEC takes Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas and West Virginia then the ACC can take Texas as a partial along with Texas Tech, T.C.U., Baylor and Kansas State. If the SEC has either Oklahoma school it has no need of T.C.U. or really Baylor. It might take Texas Tech but even that is a big might. The SEC derives the most value out of both Oklahoma's if it picks up Kansas and another State. Now who knows there may be more value in taking Iowa State. There are advantages for either West Virginia or Iowa State. I'm not sure who gets the nod there. But yeah a deal like that preserves the ACC. And I do still agree that in the long run that is still best for both of us. But the SEC would be quite capable of holding its own otherwise, it would just not leave the Southeast feeling like the same place we grew up with.

(03-03-2014 03:50 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-03-2014 12:51 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  If my above happened I think you would end up with a PAC/B1G merger eventually at 24 schools. There would be no school of value left for the B1G to add and stay contiguous and the PAC would have to reach for quite a few G5 schools to get to 16 even. That 24 team conference would be a monster though.

Also ideally for the ACC and ESPN, ND is forced all in and you could drop one school from the ACC adds I listed.

That's interesting. I agree the plus 6 minus two works best. I don't think however that the ACC needs to add beyond 18 full members and 2 partials.

Your reasoning on the balance of value is interesting. I do think that as long as the SEC adds Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kansas and Iowa State to the footprint and solidifies Texas it would be a win.

Using your selections the conferences would break down this way: (however I don't think we would add ECU when there are others on the table.)
SEC:
Iowa State, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Cincinnati, Vanderbilt, West Virginia
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee

ACC:
Boston College, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Wake Forest
Baylor, Kansas, State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Christian

The Best Solution with this set would be this:

SEC:
Arkansas, Iowa State, Kansas, Missouri, Texas Tech
Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina

ACC:
Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Christian
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Wake Forest
Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia
Boston College, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

The SEC West would provide Arkansas, Missouri and Texas Tech a chance to shine in football. The basketball in the Western Division would be very competitive by SEC terms. Kansas and Iowa State would have a chance to improve football in that division.

West Virginia to the ACC in spite of snarkiness from the past because they reconnect their footprint after the defection of Maryland. And let's face it Connecticut or Cincinnati would be fine additions here, but UConn makes that Northern Division of the ACC more compact and Louisville already delivers part of the Cincy market area.

Thoughts?

One other thing. Eventually Texas and Notre Dame will join fully. There's no need to add two more. Until they join fully they can simply access the ACC championship / playoff tie in by winning their division which would comprise 4 of their 6 required conference games.

That works for both scenarios. I see the reasoning.

As a KU fan I would love the west. We would have a chance to win that division in FB occasionally. Hard to do when you have shared a conference with NU and OU most of your history and later added Texas to the mix. In the first KU would have a chance to win some division titles. In the second it would be a little harder due to Arkansas, but much easier than getting past both UT and OU in the current B12.

In your ideal scenario though (even though it would make things harder on KU), I would switch Texas A&M and Arkansas. Would like OSU in the west too. If you did a rivalry game out of division/pod switch MU and OSU. KU/MU would then still be preserved and I think the divisions work better geographically. A&M might dominate that division unlike Arkansas. A dominant A&M competes head to head with UT for the cream of Texas recruits. I would do this for divisions using your teams and if there was one out of division/pod annual rival. In BB I would have all schools play each other once with no divisions. ESPN would love a SEC semi with these teams: A&M, LSU, Bama/Auburn, and Florida/UGA.

SEC:
Texas A&M, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech
Louisiana State, Arkansas, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri
Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina

(03-03-2014 03:58 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-03-2014 04:15 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Now, what do I think will really happen? When either the GOR's have expired, been adjudicated less effective than previously believed, or the networks intervene for the shaping of product, or a breakaway occurs then eventually anytime between the next two years and the next 12 this might happen.

Texas and Oklahoma eventually join the SEC. It's what we've been after since 1992. By adding Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Missouri we've set up a division for them that would also include L.S.U. and the Mississippi schools separating them from the traditional SEC powers other than L.S.U. and giving them in the Western Division the conference they always wanted anyway. Plus by their simple addition the SEC would become solidified as the top earning conference.

The Big 10 adds Kansas, and eventually North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia to get to 18. And when they do the SEC finally picks up N.C. State and Virginia Tech. Why does U.N.C. eventually go Big 10? Money, academics, and because Virginia and Duke will lean that way. By that time North Carolina's latest scandal over academic fraud for athletic eligibility will have their leaders refocused on making a purely academic decision.

The Big 12 and ACC remnants form a new conference that looks like this:

Boston College, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia (Former Big East Division)
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, Wake Forest (Former ACC Division)
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, T.C.U. (Former Big 12 Division)
*Notre Dame remains an independent attached to this conference.

The PAC 12 stays at 12 and eventually grows to 14 with a Nevada school and a compliant B.Y.U.. They work to develop Hawaii and New Mexico. So initially the P5 is comprised of 66 schools then grows to 68 and eventually to 70, plus Notre Dame.

The New SEC:
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia Tech

The New Big 10:
Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Penn State, Rutgers, Virginia
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue
Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

If the ACC does ever come apart, you are right in that Carolina and Virginia would never join the SEC, no offense to our former Southern Conference mates. The only think that would thow a chink into the otherwise very well laid out plan..... is Georgia Tech. If Carolina, UVa and Dook move to the B1G, I would look for Tech to try to tag along too (just a FYI).
But I don't think that ESPN has any desire to give up the bulk of viewers in the mid-atlantic. Besides your line-up only weakens the SEC in that it will create another really good football conference with viewership in three distinct parts of the country and hems in the growth potential of the SEC network. It also gives the B1G access to the South. The question then becomes: do the massive gains in the Texas market(with Texas and Oklahoma) outweigh the potential gains of the B1G in the South (especially if the B1G gets access to Georgia (Georgia Tech) or one of the two ACC Florida Schools.
Sometimes it's better to stick with the devil you know than the devil you don't.

Supposedly OSU and Delaney really wanted to add FSU this go around according to some OSU insiders, but Michigan and Wisconsin opposed (AAU snobs). The B1G really likes GT, but doesn't want them on an island. I think if UNC and UVA go to the B1G and require Duke be taken as well, then I believe GT is a shoo in. I think then FSU gets in so that they can add a football juggernaut and get a small foothold into GA/FL recruiting. I could see this: Duke, UNC, UVA, GT, FSU, and one more (Kansas, Clemson, VT, Miami, Syracuse). If I was the B1G, if this came to pass, I would take Clemson (or Miami) as the last school to help sink their talons deeper into the SE. That would make them much stronger on the FB field and they would dominate basketball.

The SEC would add NC State and VT (if available). Whatever southern ACC schools remained (Miami, Clemson, Louisville?) would be begging the SEC to take them too. The SEC would get on the phone with Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Since the B1G took the SE ACC teams the B12 is doomed to always be a very distant 4th since the big hope of the B12 is the ACC comes apart and they get FSU, Clemson, Miami, GT and a couple more and vault themselves back into B1G/SEC territory. If the B1G took FSU and GT then I think Texas, Kansas, and OU would be looking to the PAC, B1G (24 schools was mentioned as a possible end game a few times by B1G people) or SEC to pick up them and a few friends. The financial disparity would be too large to continue as a 10 school conference or as a larger conferences with the least valuable remaining ACC schools.

I kind of want this to happen to see where KU, Texas and OU would end up and see how the SEC and PAC react. Would the SEC go for some northern ACC schools to strike into the NE since the B1G invaded the SE? Would the B12 and PAC merge or the SEC and B12? Would KU, OU, Texas and 1 more go to the B1G 24? Would the PAC add ND and a eastern group of schools? There would be so many crazy options and scenarios.

(03-04-2014 02:03 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  

(03-03-2014 03:58 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-03-2014 04:15 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Now, what do I think will really happen? When either the GOR's have expired, been adjudicated less effective than previously believed, or the networks intervene for the shaping of product, or a breakaway occurs then eventually anytime between the next two years and the next 12 this might happen.

Texas and Oklahoma eventually join the SEC. It's what we've been after since 1992. By adding Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Missouri we've set up a division for them that would also include L.S.U. and the Mississippi schools separating them from the traditional SEC powers other than L.S.U. and giving them in the Western Division the conference they always wanted anyway. Plus by their simple addition the SEC would become solidified as the top earning conference.

The Big 10 adds Kansas, and eventually North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia to get to 18. And when they do the SEC finally picks up N.C. State and Virginia Tech. Why does U.N.C. eventually go Big 10? Money, academics, and because Virginia and Duke will lean that way. By that time North Carolina's latest scandal over academic fraud for athletic eligibility will have their leaders refocused on making a purely academic decision.

The Big 12 and ACC remnants form a new conference that looks like this:

Boston College, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia (Former Big East Division)
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, Wake Forest (Former ACC Division)
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, T.C.U. (Former Big 12 Division)
*Notre Dame remains an independent attached to this conference.

The PAC 12 stays at 12 and eventually grows to 14 with a Nevada school and a compliant B.Y.U.. They work to develop Hawaii and New Mexico. So initially the P5 is comprised of 66 schools then grows to 68 and eventually to 70, plus Notre Dame.

The New SEC:
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia Tech

The New Big 10:
Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Penn State, Rutgers, Virginia
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue
Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

If the ACC does ever come apart, you are right in that Carolina and Virginia would never join the SEC, no offense to our former Southern Conference mates. The only think that would thow a chink into the otherwise very well laid out plan..... is Georgia Tech. If Carolina, UVa and Dook move to the B1G, I would look for Tech to try to tag along too (just a FYI).
But I don't think that ESPN has any desire to give up the bulk of viewers in the mid-atlantic. Besides your line-up only weakens the SEC in that it will create another really good football conference with viewership in three distinct parts of the country and hems in the growth potential of the SEC network. It also gives the B1G access to the South. The question then becomes: do the massive gains in the Texas market(with Texas and Oklahoma) outweigh the potential gains of the B1G in the South (especially if the B1G gets access to Georgia (Georgia Tech) or one of the two ACC Florida Schools.
Sometimes it's better to stick with the devil you know than the devil you don't.

Supposedly OSU and Delaney really wanted to add FSU this go around according to some OSU insiders, but Michigan and Wisconsin opposed (AAU snobs). The B1G really likes GT, but doesn't want them on an island. I think if UNC and UVA go to the B1G and require Duke be taken as well, then I believe GT is a shoo in. I think then FSU gets in so that they can add a football juggernaut and get a small foothold into GA/FL recruiting. I could see this: Duke, UNC, UVA, GT, FSU, and one more (Kansas, Clemson, VT, Miami, Syracuse). If I was the B1G, if this came to pass, I would take Clemson (or Miami) as the last school to help sink their talons deeper into the SE. That would make them much stronger on the FB field and they would dominate basketball.

The SEC would add NC State and VT (if available). Whatever southern ACC schools remained (Miami, Clemson, Louisville?) would be begging the SEC to take them too. The SEC would get on the phone with Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Since the B1G took the SE ACC teams the B12 is doomed to always be a very distant 4th since the big hope of the B12 is the ACC comes apart and they get FSU, Clemson, Miami, GT and a couple more and vault themselves back into B1G/SEC territory. If the B1G took FSU and GT then I think Texas, Kansas, and OU would be looking to the PAC, B1G (24 schools was mentioned as a possible end game a few times by B1G people) or SEC to pick up them and a few friends. The financial disparity would be too large to continue as a 10 school conference or as a larger conferences with the least valuable remaining ACC schools.

I kind of want this to happen to see where KU, Texas and OU would end up and see how the SEC and PAC react. Would the SEC go for some northern ACC schools to strike into the NE since the B1G invaded the SE? Would the B12 and PAC merge or the SEC and B12? Would KU, OU, Texas and 1 more go to the B1G 24? Would the PAC add ND and a eastern group of schools? There would be so many crazy options and scenarios.

The Big 10 will never land Florida State or Clemson and I have some doubts about Georgia Tech though not as many as the other two. Miami could go anywhere since they have to fly everywhere to play anyway. Florida State and Clemson alumni might be quite happy to be in the ACC, but both alumni bases have all of their interest in playing Southern rivals and traveling to away games. If the SEC really thought that they might go to the Big 10 both would get immediate offers and the difference in SEC money and Big 10 money wouldn't be enough to cover the travel. And so far there is only 1 non AAU Big 10 school and my money is that it will stay that way unless Notre Dame comes in, or Syracuse wants to reapply to AAU. I don't think the Big 10 will come any farther South than North Carolina. Georgia Tech is the only remaining Southern Public that might consider the Big 10.

Remember Florida State and Clemson are football first schools and both know that if they chose the Big 10 they would never recruit the South as well again. Their football days would be over. Besides the Big 10 like the SEC will likely not desire to dilute such a strong regional brand by going counter to their cultural roots. The real threat to the Big 10 if they did try to encroach the deep South is that the SEC wouldn't fool around with Pitt and Syracuse, they would go after Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan to form a major pay day conference. Add those three to Texas, Oklahoma and Florida State and a new tier beyond the P5 would emerge. The SEC has 5 of the top 10 earners now and 9 of the top 20. Add the schools listed and we own the top 10 outright and have 5 of the next 10. It would be NFL lite. And for those who think the Big 10 can't be poached there have been many editorials written at Ohio State already that address their weariness with carrying 8 of the 12 current Big 10 programs, soon to be 10 of the 14. Add those three to the SEC and the monetary value explodes and then those three would be in a conference where the vast majority all pull their weight and add value in content to one another. I love it when people say that Oklahoma and Texas want to be with peers. The vast majority of the economic peers of Oklahoma and Texas are in the SEC already. Ditto for Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan. If you added Notre Dame and Clemson to that line up you would 17 of the top 20 earners. At that point being a charter member of the SEC might not be enough of a reason to get an automatic in to remaining in the conference.

Just something to think about when we talk about grandiose Big 10 plans. As they say in True Grit "that's bold talk for a one eyed fat man!" Besides the Big 10 and SEC won't be able to take ACC teams without each other's cooperation.

Also, if we ever do move to a P3 the Irish will have to drop anchor. If they move with Duke, U.N.C. & UVa I still believe Delany rounds out New England with B.C. and New York with Syracuse. There won't be room for G.T..

(03-04-2014 02:38 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-04-2014 02:03 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  

(03-03-2014 03:58 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-03-2014 04:15 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Now, what do I think will really happen? When either the GOR's have expired, been adjudicated less effective than previously believed, or the networks intervene for the shaping of product, or a breakaway occurs then eventually anytime between the next two years and the next 12 this might happen.

Texas and Oklahoma eventually join the SEC. It's what we've been after since 1992. By adding Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Missouri we've set up a division for them that would also include L.S.U. and the Mississippi schools separating them from the traditional SEC powers other than L.S.U. and giving them in the Western Division the conference they always wanted anyway. Plus by their simple addition the SEC would become solidified as the top earning conference.

The Big 10 adds Kansas, and eventually North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia to get to 18. And when they do the SEC finally picks up N.C. State and Virginia Tech. Why does U.N.C. eventually go Big 10? Money, academics, and because Virginia and Duke will lean that way. By that time North Carolina's latest scandal over academic fraud for athletic eligibility will have their leaders refocused on making a purely academic decision.

The Big 12 and ACC remnants form a new conference that looks like this:

Boston College, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia (Former Big East Division)
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, Wake Forest (Former ACC Division)
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, T.C.U. (Former Big 12 Division)
*Notre Dame remains an independent attached to this conference.

The PAC 12 stays at 12 and eventually grows to 14 with a Nevada school and a compliant B.Y.U.. They work to develop Hawaii and New Mexico. So initially the P5 is comprised of 66 schools then grows to 68 and eventually to 70, plus Notre Dame.

The New SEC:
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia Tech

The New Big 10:
Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Penn State, Rutgers, Virginia
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue
Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

If the ACC does ever come apart, you are right in that Carolina and Virginia would never join the SEC, no offense to our former Southern Conference mates. The only think that would thow a chink into the otherwise very well laid out plan..... is Georgia Tech. If Carolina, UVa and Dook move to the B1G, I would look for Tech to try to tag along too (just a FYI).
But I don't think that ESPN has any desire to give up the bulk of viewers in the mid-atlantic. Besides your line-up only weakens the SEC in that it will create another really good football conference with viewership in three distinct parts of the country and hems in the growth potential of the SEC network. It also gives the B1G access to the South. The question then becomes: do the massive gains in the Texas market(with Texas and Oklahoma) outweigh the potential gains of the B1G in the South (especially if the B1G gets access to Georgia (Georgia Tech) or one of the two ACC Florida Schools.
Sometimes it's better to stick with the devil you know than the devil you don't.

Supposedly OSU and Delaney really wanted to add FSU this go around according to some OSU insiders, but Michigan and Wisconsin opposed (AAU snobs). The B1G really likes GT, but doesn't want them on an island. I think if UNC and UVA go to the B1G and require Duke be taken as well, then I believe GT is a shoo in. I think then FSU gets in so that they can add a football juggernaut and get a small foothold into GA/FL recruiting. I could see this: Duke, UNC, UVA, GT, FSU, and one more (Kansas, Clemson, VT, Miami, Syracuse). If I was the B1G, if this came to pass, I would take Clemson (or Miami) as the last school to help sink their talons deeper into the SE. That would make them much stronger on the FB field and they would dominate basketball.

The SEC would add NC State and VT (if available). Whatever southern ACC schools remained (Miami, Clemson, Louisville?) would be begging the SEC to take them too. The SEC would get on the phone with Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Since the B1G took the SE ACC teams the B12 is doomed to always be a very distant 4th since the big hope of the B12 is the ACC comes apart and they get FSU, Clemson, Miami, GT and a couple more and vault themselves back into B1G/SEC territory. If the B1G took FSU and GT then I think Texas, Kansas, and OU would be looking to the PAC, B1G (24 schools was mentioned as a possible end game a few times by B1G people) or SEC to pick up them and a few friends. The financial disparity would be too large to continue as a 10 school conference or as a larger conferences with the least valuable remaining ACC schools.

I kind of want this to happen to see where KU, Texas and OU would end up and see how the SEC and PAC react. Would the SEC go for some northern ACC schools to strike into the NE since the B1G invaded the SE? Would the B12 and PAC merge or the SEC and B12? Would KU, OU, Texas and 1 more go to the B1G 24? Would the PAC add ND and a eastern group of schools? There would be so many crazy options and scenarios.

The Big 10 will never land Florida State or Clemson and I have some doubts about Georgia Tech though not as many as the other two. Miami could go anywhere since they have to fly everywhere to play anyway. Florida State and Clemson alumni might be quite happy to be in the ACC, but both alumni bases have all of their interest in playing Southern rivals and traveling to away games. If the SEC really thought that they might go to the Big 10 both would get immediate offers and the difference in SEC money and Big 10 money wouldn't be enough to cover the travel. And so far there is only 1 non AAU Big 10 school and my money is that it will stay that way unless Notre Dame comes in, or Syracuse wants to reapply to AAU. I don't think the Big 10 will come any farther South than North Carolina. Georgia Tech is the only remaining Southern Public that might consider the Big 10.

Remember Florida State and Clemson are football first schools and both know that if they chose the Big 10 they would never recruit the South as well again. Their football days would be over. Besides the Big 10 like the SEC will likely not desire to dilute such a strong regional brand by going counter to their cultural roots. The real threat to the Big 10 if they did try to encroach the deep South is that the SEC wouldn't fool around with Pitt and Syracuse, they would go after Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan to form a major pay day conference. Add those three to Texas, Oklahoma and Florida State and a new tier beyond the P5 would emerge. The SEC has 5 of the top 10 earners now and 9 of the top 20. Add the schools listed and we own the top 10 outright and have 5 of the next 10. It would be NFL lite. And for those who think the Big 10 can't be poached there have been many editorials written at Ohio State already that address their weariness with carrying 8 of the 12 current Big 10 programs, soon to be 10 of the 14. Add those three to the SEC and the monetary value explodes and then those three would be in a conference where the vast majority all pull their weight and add value in content to one another. I love it when people say that Oklahoma and Texas want to be with peers. The vast majority of the economic peers of Oklahoma and Texas are in the SEC already. Ditto for Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan. If you added Notre Dame and Clemson to that line up you would 17 of the top 20 earners. At that point being a charter member of the SEC might not be enough of a reason to get an automatic in to remaining in the conference.

Just something to think about when we talk about grandiose Big 10 plans. As they say in True Grit "that's bold talk for a one eyed fat man!" Besides the Big 10 and SEC won't be able to take ACC teams without each other's cooperation.

Also, if we ever do move to a P3 the Irish will have to drop anchor. If they move with Duke, U.N.C. & UVa I still believe Delany rounds out New England with B.C. and New York with Syracuse. There won't be room for G.T..

Speaking of 'bold talk' JR, the concept of Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State leaving the B1G to join the SEC is about as realistic as Alabama, Georgia and Florida leaving the SEC to join the B1G. Maybe it happens when the federal government takes over college sports, shortly after nationalizing health care, the auto industry and the banks.

Neither BC nor Clemson would ever get an offer from the B1G. Neither are AAU, of course, but they also don't fit the profile of a land grant type state sponsored research university with large alumni bases.

I think your original B1G lineup gets it almost right. Although Delany's sights are set eastward, I think they'll add one western team to help bolster Nebraska as a member, most likely Kansas. UVA, and UNC are the likely first east coast additions, but Georgia Tech would get the invitation, not Duke. Duke's a great academic institution but GT is one of the top 5 engineering schools in the US and adds a presence in the Atlanta market and a foothold in Georgia recruiting. The SEC at that point gets is wished for outposts in VT and NC St.

If we then go to a P3 structure following an ACC jailbreak, only Texas, Oklahoma, FSU and Notre Dame are assured of spots in either the SEC, B1G or PAC. Other schools will certainly get invites, but only because they might be part of a package to lure one of the big 4 or as fill ins to round out the number of conference members.

Texas' decision will likely drive the outcome. If we assume Texas and Oklahoma are in the SEC, as you project, and we are left with only the teams you list as ACC/Big 12 remnants, I think quite a few of them have trouble finding a conference.

The B1G would only take FSU, ND, Syracuse and GT (or Duke, if GT is already in the B1G instead of Duke), or more likely only two of them to get to 20 members. Some of the Big 12 remnants, like Texas Tech, ISU, KSU or OSU might be attractive to the PAC to fill in its eastern division. The SEC might want some combination of Clemson, FSU, OSU, Texas Tech, Kansas St., Pitt, or Syracuse, but even many of them might be a stretch. If the SEC already has Texas and Oklahoma, they don't need Tech or OSU, and the SEC might be better served by doubling up in Florida with FSU and adding another program, like Pitt, that gets them into a new state.

That still leaves lots of quality programs in the Eastern US out in the cold or in a remnants type conference. It's hard for me to see how we get much beyond 60-64 teams in a P3 world.

(03-05-2014 01:14 AM)CintiFan Wrote:  

(03-04-2014 02:38 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-04-2014 02:03 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  

(03-03-2014 03:58 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-03-2014 04:15 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Now, what do I think will really happen? When either the GOR's have expired, been adjudicated less effective than previously believed, or the networks intervene for the shaping of product, or a breakaway occurs then eventually anytime between the next two years and the next 12 this might happen.

Texas and Oklahoma eventually join the SEC. It's what we've been after since 1992. By adding Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Missouri we've set up a division for them that would also include L.S.U. and the Mississippi schools separating them from the traditional SEC powers other than L.S.U. and giving them in the Western Division the conference they always wanted anyway. Plus by their simple addition the SEC would become solidified as the top earning conference.

The Big 10 adds Kansas, and eventually North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia to get to 18. And when they do the SEC finally picks up N.C. State and Virginia Tech. Why does U.N.C. eventually go Big 10? Money, academics, and because Virginia and Duke will lean that way. By that time North Carolina's latest scandal over academic fraud for athletic eligibility will have their leaders refocused on making a purely academic decision.

The Big 12 and ACC remnants form a new conference that looks like this:

Boston College, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia (Former Big East Division)
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, Wake Forest (Former ACC Division)
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, T.C.U. (Former Big 12 Division)
*Notre Dame remains an independent attached to this conference.

The PAC 12 stays at 12 and eventually grows to 14 with a Nevada school and a compliant B.Y.U.. They work to develop Hawaii and New Mexico. So initially the P5 is comprised of 66 schools then grows to 68 and eventually to 70, plus Notre Dame.

The New SEC:
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia Tech

The New Big 10:
Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Penn State, Rutgers, Virginia
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue
Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

If the ACC does ever come apart, you are right in that Carolina and Virginia would never join the SEC, no offense to our former Southern Conference mates. The only think that would thow a chink into the otherwise very well laid out plan..... is Georgia Tech. If Carolina, UVa and Dook move to the B1G, I would look for Tech to try to tag along too (just a FYI).
But I don't think that ESPN has any desire to give up the bulk of viewers in the mid-atlantic. Besides your line-up only weakens the SEC in that it will create another really good football conference with viewership in three distinct parts of the country and hems in the growth potential of the SEC network. It also gives the B1G access to the South. The question then becomes: do the massive gains in the Texas market(with Texas and Oklahoma) outweigh the potential gains of the B1G in the South (especially if the B1G gets access to Georgia (Georgia Tech) or one of the two ACC Florida Schools.
Sometimes it's better to stick with the devil you know than the devil you don't.

Supposedly OSU and Delaney really wanted to add FSU this go around according to some OSU insiders, but Michigan and Wisconsin opposed (AAU snobs). The B1G really likes GT, but doesn't want them on an island. I think if UNC and UVA go to the B1G and require Duke be taken as well, then I believe GT is a shoo in. I think then FSU gets in so that they can add a football juggernaut and get a small foothold into GA/FL recruiting. I could see this: Duke, UNC, UVA, GT, FSU, and one more (Kansas, Clemson, VT, Miami, Syracuse). If I was the B1G, if this came to pass, I would take Clemson (or Miami) as the last school to help sink their talons deeper into the SE. That would make them much stronger on the FB field and they would dominate basketball.

The SEC would add NC State and VT (if available). Whatever southern ACC schools remained (Miami, Clemson, Louisville?) would be begging the SEC to take them too. The SEC would get on the phone with Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Since the B1G took the SE ACC teams the B12 is doomed to always be a very distant 4th since the big hope of the B12 is the ACC comes apart and they get FSU, Clemson, Miami, GT and a couple more and vault themselves back into B1G/SEC territory. If the B1G took FSU and GT then I think Texas, Kansas, and OU would be looking to the PAC, B1G (24 schools was mentioned as a possible end game a few times by B1G people) or SEC to pick up them and a few friends. The financial disparity would be too large to continue as a 10 school conference or as a larger conferences with the least valuable remaining ACC schools.

I kind of want this to happen to see where KU, Texas and OU would end up and see how the SEC and PAC react. Would the SEC go for some northern ACC schools to strike into the NE since the B1G invaded the SE? Would the B12 and PAC merge or the SEC and B12? Would KU, OU, Texas and 1 more go to the B1G 24? Would the PAC add ND and a eastern group of schools? There would be so many crazy options and scenarios.

The Big 10 will never land Florida State or Clemson and I have some doubts about Georgia Tech though not as many as the other two. Miami could go anywhere since they have to fly everywhere to play anyway. Florida State and Clemson alumni might be quite happy to be in the ACC, but both alumni bases have all of their interest in playing Southern rivals and traveling to away games. If the SEC really thought that they might go to the Big 10 both would get immediate offers and the difference in SEC money and Big 10 money wouldn't be enough to cover the travel. And so far there is only 1 non AAU Big 10 school and my money is that it will stay that way unless Notre Dame comes in, or Syracuse wants to reapply to AAU. I don't think the Big 10 will come any farther South than North Carolina. Georgia Tech is the only remaining Southern Public that might consider the Big 10.

Remember Florida State and Clemson are football first schools and both know that if they chose the Big 10 they would never recruit the South as well again. Their football days would be over. Besides the Big 10 like the SEC will likely not desire to dilute such a strong regional brand by going counter to their cultural roots. The real threat to the Big 10 if they did try to encroach the deep South is that the SEC wouldn't fool around with Pitt and Syracuse, they would go after Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan to form a major pay day conference. Add those three to Texas, Oklahoma and Florida State and a new tier beyond the P5 would emerge. The SEC has 5 of the top 10 earners now and 9 of the top 20. Add the schools listed and we own the top 10 outright and have 5 of the next 10. It would be NFL lite. And for those who think the Big 10 can't be poached there have been many editorials written at Ohio State already that address their weariness with carrying 8 of the 12 current Big 10 programs, soon to be 10 of the 14. Add those three to the SEC and the monetary value explodes and then those three would be in a conference where the vast majority all pull their weight and add value in content to one another. I love it when people say that Oklahoma and Texas want to be with peers. The vast majority of the economic peers of Oklahoma and Texas are in the SEC already. Ditto for Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan. If you added Notre Dame and Clemson to that line up you would 17 of the top 20 earners. At that point being a charter member of the SEC might not be enough of a reason to get an automatic in to remaining in the conference.

Just something to think about when we talk about grandiose Big 10 plans. As they say in True Grit "that's bold talk for a one eyed fat man!" Besides the Big 10 and SEC won't be able to take ACC teams without each other's cooperation.

Also, if we ever do move to a P3 the Irish will have to drop anchor. If they move with Duke, U.N.C. & UVa I still believe Delany rounds out New England with B.C. and New York with Syracuse. There won't be room for G.T..

Speaking of 'bold talk' JR, the concept of Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State leaving the B1G to join the SEC is about as realistic as Alabama, Georgia and Florida leaving the SEC to join the B1G. Maybe it happens when the federal government takes over college sports, shortly after nationalizing health care, the auto industry and the banks.

Neither BC nor Clemson would ever get an offer from the B1G. Neither are AAU, of course, but they also don't fit the profile of a land grant type state sponsored research university with large alumni bases.

I think your original B1G lineup gets it almost right. Although Delany's sights are set eastward, I think they'll add one western team to help bolster Nebraska as a member, most likely Kansas. UVA, and UNC are the likely first east coast additions, but Georgia Tech would get the invitation, not Duke. Duke's a great academic institution but GT is one of the top 5 engineering schools in the US and adds a presence in the Atlanta market and a foothold in Georgia recruiting. The SEC at that point gets is wished for outposts in VT and NC St.

If we then go to a P3 structure following an ACC jailbreak, only Texas, Oklahoma, FSU and Notre Dame are assured of spots in either the SEC, B1G or PAC. Other schools will certainly get invites, but only because they might be part of a package to lure one of the big 4 or as fill ins to round out the number of conference members.

Texas' decision will likely drive the outcome. If we assume Texas and Oklahoma are in the SEC, as you project, and we are left with only the teams you list as ACC/Big 12 remnants, I think quite a few of them have trouble finding a conference.

The B1G would only take FSU, ND, Syracuse and GT (or Duke, if GT is already in the B1G instead of Duke), or more likely only two of them to get to 20 members. Some of the Big 12 remnants, like Texas Tech, ISU, KSU or OSU might be attractive to the PAC to fill in its eastern division. The SEC might want some combination of Clemson, FSU, OSU, Texas Tech, Kansas St., Pitt, or Syracuse, but even many of them might be a stretch. If the SEC already has Texas and Oklahoma, they don't need Tech or OSU, and the SEC might be better served by doubling up in Florida with FSU and adding another program, like Pitt, that gets them into a new state.

That still leaves lots of quality programs in the Eastern US out in the cold or in a remnants type conference. It's hard for me to see how we get much beyond 60-64 teams in a P3 world.

North Carolina won't leave Duke. Mike Slive has already had contingency talks with North Carolina about this. F.S.U. will not move to the Big 10 and the SEC would take them quickly to keep the Big 10 out of Florida. One thing Northerner's just don't get is that once you leave Virginia headed South the farther you travel the less likely you are to find anyone who cares about the North. Atlanta has enough Big 10 guys to be possible. Florida State alumni will never permit their school to join the Big 10 if there is an SEC offer on the table.

So if the Big 10 goes big and the SEC does as well and we are talking a true P3 of 20 schools each then first, yes teams will be left out, and second footprint integrity will still matter to both conferences.

For the Big 10 to get Virginia and North Carolina they will have to take Duke too. Besides research matters and Duke is loaded in Grants for Medical Research. Kansas would be in the mix at 18 and at 20 you can drop Kansas and likely add Syracuse, Boston College, Pitt.

At 18 the SEC would be looking at N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma and Texas. At 20 the only way the PAC gets to 20 is by adding 8 Big 12 schools (Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, and T.C.U.). Baylor would be the loser for the same reasons B.Y.U. can't go to the PAC. At 20 it takes 12 schools to dissolve the ACC so the SEC and Big 10 have to work together. At 20 the SEC's targets change. Gone are Texas and Oklahoma and the focus becomes N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech and either Louisville or Miami. And that's about the only way it happens since the Big 10 and SEC would have to take 6 each from the ACC to make it happen. There might for the sake of markets be a swap between Pitt and Georgia Tech but who knows.

I don't know how old you are but back in the 1970's there was some serious consideration given to a different kind of super conference of the top 20 or so teams in the nation. Remember back then F.S.U. and Miami were nobodies. The Arizona schools were in a small conference, Penn State was just coming into its own, so what was being proposed was something like this:

U.S.C., U.C.L.A., Stanford, Washington, California

Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Pitt

Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, L.S.U., Kansas

Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee

and I think there may have been as many as four more.

The idea was to separate the top money earners and those which annually played in the larger bowls and create a super conference nationwide to decide the national champion. The advertising money would have been through the roof. The fear was alienating the rest of the college football world (a real fear and likelihood). At that time OSU and Michigan both recognized already the need to leave laggards behind. So it's not madness. The motivation has been there before. It probably is madness to say they would join the SEC, but a conference made up of schools like the one above was a big temptation that could one day find root again given the right economic circumstances. In big money college football never rule out anything and that includes Big 10 and SEC schools.