http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/...ns_part_ii

Quote:This is part two of my look at every conference race using a Monte Carlo and my current ratings for each team. The listed numbers are how many simulations each team won out of 10000, so divide that number by 100 to get the percent chance I am giving each team of winning the one-seed for its conference tournament. (Note: not all teams listed are eligible for their conference tournament, so in some cases it’s a mythical one-seed.) If a team isn’t listed, I didn’t forget about them - they didn’t win a single simulation.

Conferences are ordered from least to most competitive. I’ll tackle the ten-most competitive conference races in the final part tomorrow. The following results include all games played through yesterday.

Quote:19. MAC

The pick: Toledo. The Rockets’ unbeaten run ended at Kansas on Monday night, but their streak of scoring at least 1.08 PPP in every game didn’t.

The contrarian pick: Eastern Michigan. Rob Murphy’s team has been the surprise of the conference so far, and convincing wins over Green Bay and Cleveland State are solid evidence that they’ll win a few games in league play.

Toledo 5087
Ohio 2264
Akron 818
Eastern Michigan 573
Western Michigan 440
Buffalo 403
Kent St. 334
Bowling Green 64
Miami OH 13
Ball St. 4
Northern Illinois 2

Toledo has more points than the rest of the conference combined. That explains why he sees the MAC as the 19th least competitive conference. Note that the Big East is 18th with Villanova dominating the rest of the conference in his projections.

Does he have a history with these simulations from previous seasons to test his accuracy?

He does. You'd have to dig through his archive to find them.