(12-06-2013 12:01 PM)Eagle66 Wrote:  Ohio did lose to Winthrop (RPI 267) last year at home. I am always extra weary of road games as well. (Morgan State for example)

I'm worried about Oakland. Their record isn't necessarily a true reflection on their team. They've played a killer schedule and the Ohio game will be their first D1 home game of the year. They've also had a lot of sidebars going on this season that have wreaked havoc on their continuity. They had a starter leave the team right before the season to focus on a music career. Then they had two guys get accused of sexual assault. They are back now. Plus in both Ohio's road games they've come out flat. They were able to right the ship against Ohio State and make a game of it and they pulled out a buzzer beater against Morgan State but that still has me worried. Oakland has some talent.

Still very early. Some positive signs. Ohio pretty much has won the games they were expected to so far and loss the game they were expected to lose. A good MAC should be expected to win a home period. The road games well that's another story. If you can't beat mid majors at home your going to struggle come MAC play. Toledo is winning away from home so far and that translates into a probable contender for the MAC title. Akron has a lot of experience and should be fine in MAC play. Buffalo too should be fine in MAC play. Ohio and Kent State are feasting at home, but can they beat good teams away and avoid poor road loses. EMU looks like a very good team and right now would appear to be to half of the MAC. Not so much sold on WMU, yet as EMU. Ball State, BGSU and CMU haven't really done much yet to stand out. Miami and NIU still can't beat top 200 teams yet.

(12-06-2013 12:54 PM)OhioBobcatJohn Wrote:  Still very early. Some positive signs. Ohio pretty much has won the games they were expected to so far and loss the game they were expected to lose. A good MAC should be expected to win a home period. The road games well that's another story. If you can't beat mid majors at home your going to struggle come MAC play. Toledo is winning away from home so far and that translates into a probable contender for the MAC title. Akron has a lot of experience and should be fine in MAC play. Buffalo too should be fine in MAC play. Ohio and Kent State are feasting at home, but can they beat good teams away and avoid poor road loses. EMU looks like a very good team and right now would appear to be to half of the MAC. Not so much sold on WMU, yet as EMU. Ball State, BGSU and CMU haven't really done much yet to stand out. Miami and NIU still can't beat top 200 teams yet.

Incorrect

Coming into Tuesday's game at Miami, IPFW had an RPI of 114, a record of 6-3, with only a two point loss at Illinois, and 1 point losses at Dayton and Texas A & M Chorpus Christi separating them from 9-0. I watched the second half of the UD game (UD is #25 this week) and IPFW looked talented and seemed the better team.

What's Ndour's status for tomorrow night?

(12-06-2013 02:14 PM)bobcat_backer Wrote:  What's Ndour's status for tomorrow night?

Hes been practicing this week so I assume hes a go.

(12-05-2013 06:51 PM)Bobcat110 Wrote:  Once in conference play, we just cannibalize each other's RPI's...If WMU comes into MAC play with a crappy 255 RPI and then starts winning, then they just knock another MAC team's RPI down. If they would win now, they're taking points from another conference. Most teams are already over 1/2 way through their OOC schedule, not much more time IMO to add good data.

Well, the mighty Bobcats get to play Oakland, whom WMU beat. Even if you win as you should, your RPI will plummet just like ours did. Have fun and enjoy the ride downward.

(12-06-2013 04:42 PM)Eagle66 Wrote:  

(12-06-2013 02:14 PM)bobcat_backer Wrote:  What's Ndour's status for tomorrow night?

Hes been practicing this week so I assume hes a go.

Great, thanks!!

PS-I'm still a bit nervous about tomorrow night just because we do have a tendency to play poorly sometimes on the road. hopefully this team will break that recent trend.

After the Butler and SEMO games, I would have argued that BSU should be higher, but they have stunk up the court as of late. Wasn't necessarily expecting victories in any of these games (Utah, Cleveland St, Valpo), but the lack of effort displayed at many times was very troubling, especially after seeing the amount of effort displayed in the first three games. Troubling indeed... Didn't expect a lot of victories this year, was lured into hoping for a bit more by the first three games, and am now concerned it may be a bit less based on those games.

(12-06-2013 12:54 PM)OhioBobcatJohn Wrote:  Still very early. Some positive signs. Ohio pretty much has won the games they were expected to so far and loss the game they were expected to lose. A good MAC should be expected to win a home period. The road games well that's another story. If you can't beat mid majors at home your going to struggle come MAC play. Toledo is winning away from home so far and that translates into a probable contender for the MAC title. Akron has a lot of experience and should be fine in MAC play. Buffalo too should be fine in MAC play. Ohio and Kent State are feasting at home, but can they beat good teams away and avoid poor road loses. EMU looks like a very good team and right now would appear to be to half of the MAC. Not so much sold on WMU, yet as EMU. Ball State, BGSU and CMU haven't really done much yet to stand out. Miami and NIU still can't beat top 200 teams yet..

The problem with this is that we need to win more games out of conference. I was always under the impression that the name of the school doesn't matter playing inside the conference as much as garnering wins from outside of it.

(12-06-2013 05:18 PM)MileHighBronco Wrote:  

(12-05-2013 06:51 PM)Bobcat110 Wrote:  Once in conference play, we just cannibalize each other's RPI's...If WMU comes into MAC play with a crappy 255 RPI and then starts winning, then they just knock another MAC team's RPI down. If they would win now, they're taking points from another conference. Most teams are already over 1/2 way through their OOC schedule, not much more time IMO to add good data.

Well, the mighty Bobcats get to play Oakland, whom WMU beat. Even if you win as you should, your RPI will plummet just like ours did. Have fun and enjoy the ride downward.

We still have a home date with Umass. It'll be a very tough game, but I think we can pull it out. It would be great for us to get this one.

(12-07-2013 01:37 AM)Seth Wrote:  The problem with this is that we need to win more games out of conference. I was always under the impression that the name of the school doesn't matter playing inside the conference as much as garnering wins from outside of it.

Yes, its:

25% Winning Percentage + 50% Opponent's Winning Percentage (OWP) + 25% Opponents' Opponent's Winning Percentage (OOWP), where home wins & away losses count 0.6, away wins and home losses count 1.4, and neutral court wins and losses count 1.

Games already counted are omitted at the next step away, so in conference game AGAINST the team are left out in the OWP, so the average opponent's winning percentage IN MAC PLAY will always be .500. Differences from .500 in OWP brought into the conference by MAC schools will be based on what out of conference wins the MAC school brought to the table.

Note that AFAIU, parity scheduling directly affects RPI if it results in stronger schools rotating home and away series against weaker schools in different years, it doesn't directly affect RPI if all schools still play each other. So long as all schools all play each other, parity scheduling is about building a more attractive resume for schools whose RPI puts them on the bubble. Since the MAC is not there (an optimistic would add "yet"), that form of parity schedule is just a hypothetical notion.

But a top six and bottom six where each school in the two divisions each played three home and away series against three schools in the other division would affect RPI directly, so long as inter-division games went to form, by boosting OWP in MAC conference play above .500, and by boosting the OOWP through "filtering out" three of the six weaker schools from the six stronger schools. If the OWP of the other members of the "first" division was also stronger on average than the three "second" division schools they skipped played, it would also increase the average OOWP.

That structure obviously allows a rivalry game to be protected despite the rivals ending up in different divisions, but at the possible cost of every once in a while a pair of teams end up not playing each other in two consecutive years.

As far as movement between the divisions, you could go for fair, or you could go for drama. Maximum drama would be to have the top four in the first division seeded into the MAC tournament in Cleveland, and the six in next year's first division being the six that played in the two quarterfinals and two semi-finals in Cleveland.

(12-05-2013 07:27 AM)H2Oville Rocket Wrote:  EMU's defensive scheme doesn't require great fundamentals so they won't be easy to score on? Can you explain that?

after describing EMU as a big and athletic team I stated "murphy has a simple enough defensive concept that plays to their strengths and doesn't require great def fundamentals so they won't be easy to score on." the EMU/Syracuse zone allows guys who have size and range to effectively guard an area even if they don't have good lateral footwork, man/ball vision, def stance, etc... as long as they work, flow to the ball and recover to their area quickly they can make it bothersome for an opponent to get good looks. ohio and Toledo, for example, expect their guys to guard man to man, stay in front, hedge and recover, defend the post feed, etc... which require more fundamentals. i'd consider OU the better of the two on that end so far.

watch emu play (I watched all the team before ranking them). they have some marvelous athletes and guys who can go off against a little bit weaker opponent, but they haven't played well as a team against good comp and beat some average teams more on the strength of one guys raven lee, ward, going off and just making plays w the ball. what happens to eastern when tourney play comes around and advancing means beating a team that is playing well? that can take some things away from you on offense or better execute a game plan?

I have more confidence in teams like Toledo, western, kent, ohio at this point who have shown they can beat people by executing their schemes as much as by making one on one plays.

that's all. I think eastern will be a lot of fun to watch if they play a little more unselfishly. they have ballers

(12-07-2013 05:29 AM)pono Wrote:  

(12-05-2013 07:27 AM)H2Oville Rocket Wrote:  EMU's defensive scheme doesn't require great fundamentals so they won't be easy to score on? Can you explain that?

after describing EMU as a big and athletic team I stated "murphy has a simple enough defensive concept that plays to their strengths and doesn't require great def fundamentals so they won't be easy to score on." the EMU/Syracuse zone allows guys who have size and range to effectively guard an area even if they don't have good lateral footwork, man/ball vision, def stance, etc... as long as they work, flow to the ball and recover to their area quickly they can make it bothersome for an opponent to get good looks. ohio and Toledo, for example, expect their guys to guard man to man, stay in front, hedge and recover, defend the post feed, etc... which require more fundamentals. i'd consider OU the better of the two on that end so far.
watch emu play (I watched all the team before ranking them). they have some marvelous athletes and guys who can go off against a little bit weaker opponent, but they haven't played well as a team against good comp and beat some average teams more on the strength of one guys raven lee, ward, going off and just making plays w the ball. what happens to eastern when tourney play comes around and advancing means beating a team that is playing well? that can take some things away from you on offense or better execute a game pla

I have more confidence in teams like Toledo, western, kent, ohio at this point who have shown they can beat people by executing their schemes as much as by making one on one plays.

that's all. I think eastern will be a lot of fun to watch if they play a little more unselfishly. they have ballers

OK, haven't seen them play. I suppose having a 7 foot shot blocker on the back line lets you get away with fewer fundamentals, too. The guy gets 4 a game.

(12-06-2013 09:47 AM)JSF Wrote:  

(12-06-2013 07:20 AM)axeme Wrote:  

(12-05-2013 11:37 PM)Bobcat110 Wrote:  

(12-05-2013 09:44 PM)axeme Wrote:  That's six "ifs" to overcome. There a few teams who could be sitting in good shape IF they do everything right. That's why I said it is not likely. And the margin of a road (or home) loss is irrelevant to RPI.

It would be great if the MAC were better than it appears to be, but it looks like about how it looked pre-season: a number of teams around 100 RPI, mostly everyone over., and too many 200+.

Not like they are big "ifs", Ohio should beat these teams:
At Oakland 182
Alabama A&M 285
Vs Longwood 327
At UNC Ashville 222

And have a chance of winning one of these two:
home vs UMASS 1
At Richmond 67

I guess I forgot that Ohio U. never loses to teams it should always beat. How many years since that happened?

Feeling snippy this morning, are we?

Maybe. Illusions make me grouchy.