(11-19-2013 01:54 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(11-18-2013 04:39 PM)Okie Chippewa Wrote:  Actually, I wasn't focusing on the Sun Belt with my prior comment.

For example, someone might predict a 6-6 UNC team in a bowl not affiliated with the ACC. But the Tar Heels can't be picked if a 7-5 Ohio team was still out there.

Years ago that was the rule, but it is not anymore. UNC could be picked over an 13-0 Northern Illinois if the bowl so chose to do so.

I think any team can fill a vacant spot as long as they are eligible, over any other team eligible.

If the ACC ran out of spots but UNC got to 6-6 and had no place to go in the ACC tie ins, they could and probably would go over a 6-8 win SBC/MAC team. It depends on the situation but 6-6 teams from power conferences usually deserve it more than the lower non AQ's that only beat up the bottom of their league. There are also times where an AQ school is garbage at 6-6 and because of name recognition they get picked over the bottom of non AQ's. That's life in college football.

(11-19-2013 02:00 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(11-19-2013 01:54 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(11-18-2013 04:39 PM)Okie Chippewa Wrote:  Actually, I wasn't focusing on the Sun Belt with my prior comment.

For example, someone might predict a 6-6 UNC team in a bowl not affiliated with the ACC. But the Tar Heels can't be picked if a 7-5 Ohio team was still out there.

Years ago that was the rule, but it is not anymore. UNC could be picked over an 13-0 Northern Illinois if the bowl so chose to do so.

I think any team can fill a vacant spot as long as they are eligible, over any other team eligible.

Example the ACC ran out of spots but UNC got to 6-6 also and had no place to go in the ACC tie ins. They could and probably would go over a 6-8 win SBC or MAC team.

Correct. Bowl vacancies are about filling the P5 schools first, then getting the rest of us peons involved.

Its why multiple SBC and MAC teams will be left out as well unfortunately.

Breaking down the chances of reaching 6 wins. There are 70 teams currently, but in reality it's 69 because UTSA cannot be picked ahead of 6-6 teams unless there are 70 or less eligible. That will not happen, so there are 69 eligible teams for all intents and purposes.

Rutgers ---- 5 - 5 (USF/UConn) - Very likely
Syracuse ---- 5 - 6 (BC) - Unlikely, BC is on a roll and 7-4
Troy ---- 5 - 6 (TSU) - No idea, I would call this a toss up, maybe favor Troy
San Jose State ---- 5 - 6 (Fresno) - Unlikely, Fresno is very good
Louisiana-Monroe ---- 5 - 6 (ULL) - Unlikely, ULL is the top SBC team
Southern Methodist ---- 5 - 5 (Houston/UCF) - 2 shots, but unlikely
Mississippi State ---- 5 - 6 (Miss) - Unlikely, Ole Miss 4 losses to all top 10 teams
Wyoming ---- 5 - 6 (USU) - Unlikely, USU is a good team this year
Central Michigan ---- 5- 6 (EMU) - Likely, EMU is trash
Florida Atlantic ---- 5 - 6 (FIU) - Likely, FIU is trash
South Alabama ---- 4 - 6 (ULL/GSU) - Unlikely, ULL is the best SBC team
Colorado State --- 6 - 6 (AF) - Likely, AF has only won twice

I only have 4 teams under likely, and a couple toss ups. Meaning, it seems safe to say that there will be around 75 eligible teams. Thus, actually knocking UTSA out since they are only provisionally eligible. I don't think our chances our that bad. As I said, there are some very weak resumes out there in the SBC and CUSA.

But CMU and OU are out based on record, SOS, or recent play IMO.

(11-24-2013 08:03 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  But CMU and OU are out based on record, SOS, or recent play IMO.

Same with last year but CMU found a way. Once again, this thread isn't meant to bash bowl chances like everyone does. I'm just posting a tracker.

(11-24-2013 08:03 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  But CMU and OU are out based on record, SOS, or recent play IMO.

If they were to both end at 6-6, I'd expect a bowl committee would prefer the team that made a late run than a team that suffered a late collapse ... late runs build hope, late collapses foster despair ...

... hope sells more tickets than despair, because its all about the money.

Syc & Miss St winning a 6th game would take up 2 spots.
with No Ill in fiesta bowl, Ball St in Mobile, BGSU in Boise.
detriot game, toledo vs WSU, Pitt or Ohio
Buffalo would have to beat out Sun Belt for St Pete or Birmingham

(11-25-2013 10:19 AM)templefootballfan Wrote:  Syc & Miss St winning a 6th game would take up 2 spots.
with No Ill in fiesta bowl, Ball St in Mobile, BGSU in Boise.
detriot game, toledo vs WSU, Pitt or Ohio
Buffalo would have to beat out Sun Belt for St Pete or Birmingham

I don't see Ohio making a bowl ahead of Buffalo this season. They destroyed their resume this past three weeks..

The MAC also is a backup for the BBVA Compas Bowl right? CUSA won't have neough teams to fill their obligations *and* backup for the COmpas bowl this year.

(BCS)
GMAC
Pizza
Spud
Poinsettia
Compass

With NIU in a BCS bowl the MAC should have no issue sending six teams this year..

(11-25-2013 12:41 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  [quote='UofToledoFans' pid='10066927' dateline='1385341387'] But CMU and OU are out based on record, SOS, or recent play IMO.

If they were to both end at 6-6, I'd expect a bowl committee would prefer the team that made a late run than a team that suffered a late collapse ... late runs build hope, late collapses foster despair ...

... hope sells more tickets than despair, because its all about the money.
[/quote


Well, if that's the case, CMU would be better off spending the money on hookers (preferably Suzie Favor Hamilton), rather than a potential bowl candidate.

I don't understand why people are so negative regarding this. I posted my eligibility tracker to show chances. Then people come in and just $hit on everything and say "there is no chance". That's not the point. I think there will be around 74 teams eligible and CMU will have a chance of getting in if they win.

Loser of Texas State/Troy in the SBC will have no shot at a bowl, even if Troy wins leaving both 6-6. You can also pretty much eliminate FAU unless CUSA manages to out negotiate the Sun Belt for the Independence Bowl. (SBC is pitching ULL and ASU to the game)

BBVA being open is more a question of how your backup contracts work in the MAC. I've heard that ESPN only has to place you in one of like three bowls...not all three. If that is the case, I think BBVA takes a hard look at Troy or Western Kentucky. Troy has notoriously traveled well to bowls, and WKU is only about two hours from Birmingham.

If Mississippi State beats Ole Miss, we are all screwed.

(11-25-2013 01:58 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  Loser of Texas State/Troy in the SBC will have no shot at a bowl, even if Troy wins leaving both 6-6. You can also pretty much eliminate FAU unless CUSA manages to out negotiate the Sun Belt for the Independence Bowl. (SBC is pitching ULL and ASU to the game)

BBVA being open is more a question of how your backup contracts work in the MAC. I've heard that ESPN only has to place you in one of like three bowls...not all three. If that is the case, I think BBVA takes a hard look at Troy or Western Kentucky. Troy has notoriously traveled well to bowls, and WKU is only about two hours from Birmingham.

If Mississippi State beats Ole Miss, we are all screwed.

I'm assuming that CMU, Troy, FAU, Rutgers, and CSU will become eligible. Considering UTSA will then be knocked out of eligibility because there will be 74 teams eligible.

ULM, SJSU, SMU, USA, Wyoming will all very likely lose.

Miss St. and Syracuse will be somewhat of a toss up but I think they will lose.

I don't think TSU will get a bowl (disgustingly bad resume), nor do I think FAU will. If the MAC is sending 6, like some are projecting, I think CMU gets in over Ohio. For the final time, there are a lot of teams with crappy resumes out there including CMU. It will be close if we reach 6-6. The SBC, MAC, and CUSA will be looking to leave some teams out. CSU will be interesting finishing 7-6, I don't know how that is looked at.

(11-25-2013 01:12 PM)george14 Wrote:  I don't understand why people are so negative regarding this. I posted my eligibility tracker to show chances. Then people come in and just $hit on everything and say "there is no chance". That's not the point. I think there will be around 74 teams eligible and CMU will have a chance of getting in if they win.

CMU projected for the BBVA Compass Bowl against Marshall


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college...ojections/

(11-25-2013 02:29 PM)george14 Wrote:  CMU projected for the BBVA Compass Bowl against Marshall


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college...ojections/

Only can happen if Miss St loses tonight. Go Ole Miss!

(11-28-2013 08:25 PM)HuskieJohn Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 02:29 PM)george14 Wrote:  CMU projected for the BBVA Compass Bowl against Marshall


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college...ojections/

Only can happen if Miss St loses tonight. Go Ole Miss!

I was trying to figure that out and that is what I came to as well. But it wouldn't surprise me to see us in a random bowl if State won. Bowl games are goofy.

(11-28-2013 09:16 PM)george14 Wrote:  

(11-28-2013 08:25 PM)HuskieJohn Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 02:29 PM)george14 Wrote:  CMU projected for the BBVA Compass Bowl against Marshall


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college...ojections/

Only can happen if Miss St loses tonight. Go Ole Miss!

I was trying to figure that out and that is what I came to as well. But it wouldn't surprise me to see us in a random bowl if State won. Bowl games are goofy.

There will be many AQ teams without tie ins. No MAC team is going to a bowl as an at large pick.
Here are ALL the possible MAC bowls and pic order this year.
BCS
LCPB
GDB
Potato
Poinsettia
BOB/BBVA only can get 1 if a Sun Belt team is also available.

Miss State somehow managed to knock something like 4 or 5 G5 teams out of bowls with that win. Sun Belt is now 3 bids max depending on what the I Bowl does.

No way the MAC will get 7 now either. I knew Ole Miss made a mistake signing ASU's third string QB and naming him the starter for an SEC school.

Syracuse wins to get to 6-6 and take away another potential bowl slot from MAC.

LaMonroe beat LaLafayette to go to 6-6. So there are currently 77 bowl eligible teams. Rutgers (vs. USF), SMU (vs. UCF), and South Alabama (vs. LaLafayette) are the last 3 teams that can become bowl eligible.