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Latest Rankings Thru October 19th
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Indiana Bones Offline
1st String
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I Root For: ECU
Location: Greenville, NC
Post: #21
RE: Latest Rankings Thru October 19th
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

Football Outsiders uses an interesting formula that evaluates every play and rewards a team for "successful" offensive, defensive, & special teams plays.

35. ECU
47. Marshall
57. NT
72. FAU
74. Rice
75. WKU
79. Tulane
86. UTSA
95. MT
96. Tulsa
107. LT
114. UTEP
116. UAB
117. USM
124. FIU

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

There are four key components to the S&P+:

Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.

EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.

Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.
(This post was last modified: 10-22-2013 09:52 PM by Indiana Bones.)
10-22-2013 09:43 PM
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MeanestGreen Offline
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Posts: 25
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I Root For: North Texas
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Post: #22
RE: Latest Rankings Thru October 19th
After the last 8 years, I will take 3rd or 4th best in the conference right now.
10-22-2013 10:08 PM
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Ned Low Offline
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I Root For: ECU
Location: Durham, NC
Post: #23
RE: Latest Rankings Thru October 19th
(10-20-2013 08:38 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(10-20-2013 08:18 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  You can damn well bet that ECU will have to play one of its best game of the season to win in Huntington. You and I both know it.
This.

Except for the CCG, that's shaping up to be the game-of-the-year in C-USA.

What these guys said.

Rice and Tulane will be a good one, too...
10-22-2013 10:43 PM
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Native Georgian Offline
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Posts: 27,626
Joined: May 2008
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I Root For: TULANE+GA.STATE
Location: Decatur GA
Post: #24
RE: Latest Rankings Thru October 19th
(10-22-2013 10:43 PM)Ned Low Wrote:  
(10-20-2013 08:38 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(10-20-2013 08:18 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  You can damn well bet that ECU will have to play one of its best game of the season to win in Huntington. You and I both know it.
This.

Except for the CCG, that's shaping up to be the game-of-the-year in C-USA.

What these guys said.

Rice and Tulane will be a good one, too...
Yeah but we don't have the mutual-hate that the Herd and the Bucs seem to have...
(This post was last modified: 10-22-2013 11:09 PM by Native Georgian.)
10-22-2013 11:09 PM
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banker Offline
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Posts: 11,948
Joined: Oct 2009
Reputation: 1483
I Root For: Marshall
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Post: #25
RE: Latest Rankings Thru October 19th
(10-22-2013 09:43 PM)Indiana Bones Wrote:  http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

Football Outsiders uses an interesting formula that evaluates every play and rewards a team for "successful" offensive, defensive, & special teams plays.

35. ECU
47. Marshall
57. NT
72. FAU
74. Rice
75. WKU
79. Tulane
86. UTSA
95. MT
96. Tulsa
107. LT
114. UTEP
116. UAB
117. USM
124. FIU

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from both play-by-play and drive data from all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

There are four key components to the S&P+:

Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.

EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.

Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

I actually like that analysis. Humans vote on tradition and the "eye test". The computers are looking primarily at outcome and linked outcome only. This is more in depth. In a sport where 90% of the teams never play each other in a given season I think you have to find deeper ways to measure.
10-22-2013 11:34 PM
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ESE84 Offline
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Joined: Mar 2005
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I Root For: Rice then UH
Location: Houston

New Orleans BowlDonators
Post: #26
RE: Latest Rankings Thru October 19th
(10-22-2013 10:43 PM)Ned Low Wrote:  
(10-20-2013 08:38 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(10-20-2013 08:18 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  You can damn well bet that ECU will have to play one of its best game of the season to win in Huntington. You and I both know it.
This.

Except for the CCG, that's shaping up to be the game-of-the-year in C-USA.

What these guys said.

Rice and Tulane will be a good one, too...

The next game-of-the-year for Rice is October 31in Denton.
10-23-2013 06:33 AM
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