A&M is going to surpass the Whorns with Johnny Football in the SEC. That won't sit well in Austin. It's stewing.

(05-23-2013 07:41 PM)Flying Bearcat Wrote:  As much as I agree with you it is basically an opinion. Sadly, as long as Bevo runs the show we won't see a chapionship game because of the current ideology of the conference. For UC's sake I would like to see it happen but I don't think it will.

It's more bank accounts than bevo stopping it.

Assuming TV won't pay for any additions from the AAC or MWC we are looking at the following:

3.8mm lost in per-team revenue when you consider just the tv deal and sugar bowl deal.

Now a league title game would offset at most 2mm of that. The Big Ten's game pays 1.9mm per school (at 12 teams) and the P12 pays 1.2mm. Even if we assume the B1G's generous payout we are still down 1.9mm per year.

Furthermore with the Access bowls paying 4mm per appearance and the semifinals paying 6mm the Big 12 would lose anywhere from 66k to 100k per appearance as well as splitting other revenues 2 more ways.

Now if TV is able to make the tv shares even (probably not but we'll just assume) it's still a loss of 767k per team before you get to the ncaa credits, conference tournament revenues, or other revenue streams.

Unless tv is willing to play ball it won't happen unless forced.

(05-23-2013 09:36 PM)BigOwensboroCard Wrote:  I guarantee the Big12 would have 12 schools as well as the CCG if the networks did not agree to pay 12 school money to 10 school conference. The only reason they got it in the first place was due to the fact the current contract at the time was almost up, and the networks didn't want to argue over the fact the conference was practically voiding the contract with 10 teams, but at the same time didn't want to give up either. As long as the networks feels that a 10team conference is a viable counter piece to all the SuperConferences then there will be a 10 team conference, but till then I don't think the Big12 will be represented very well when the playoffs start in 2014, but that is my opinion, but the majority of what I stated is true.

The part I bolded is not correct anymore.

In 2010 we had old Fox and ESPN deals set up for 12 teams that were undervalued. They agreed not to reduce their payout with 10 teams as it (a) was undervalued, (b) was already budgeted, and © were about to redo the contracts anyway.

Once the two deals we are currently under got signed that "paying 10 teams for 12 teams" is simply no longer the case. Our current deals were structured with 10 in mind.

(05-24-2013 08:05 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 08:00 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 12:45 AM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 12:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-23-2013 10:27 PM)Maize Wrote:  It could hurt them by having 1 less game then the other leagues...you could see a situation like this:

12-1 Alabama-(SEC Champion)
12-1 Southern Cal-(Pac 12 Champion)
12-1 Ohio State- (B1G Champion)

3 Spots for the 4th school...12-1 Florida State-(ACC Champion), 11-1 LSU-(only loss to Alabama @ Bama by 3) or 11-1 Texas-(Big XII Champion)

I seriously doubt anyone will even notice the one less game, since (a) in this scenario they have the same # of games as LSU, and (b) FSU's extra game will almost surely be a rent-a-win.

Given recent history, i would say that in your scenario what will be decisive is SOS, and based on that, Texas is likely to get the fourth playoff spot, with LSU a strong second choice, and FSU a clear third.

Oh... one less game is obvious. Sorry for the tripping up and blowing the CCG. That's life. Hasn't hurt the SEC for the past seven years. Do not be a chicken.... SOS in the Big XII won't get you in but it might get the loser of the SEC/B1G CCG game in.

CCGs are two-edged swords, if you win them they can help if you lose them they will hurt. In the above scenario, Texas might be hurt vis-a-vis LSU, but not FSU, since FSU usually plays a soft schedule. The one game likely won't be missed at all.

FSU usually plays a soft schedule? Really? FSU gets to do something the Big 12 doesn't get...a high profile SEC opponent and the end of the year (Florida). Btw...

Have you looked at the BIG 12's OOC schedules? Let's not talk about soft.

Two of the four OOC Games for FSU in 2014 are the Florida Gators & Notre Dame....

When all is said and done, the Big 12 will add at least 2 more team and maybe 4 teams. The Big 12 owns the names of Big 14 and Big 18. The teams I see for possible Big 12/14 expansion are:

BYU
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Memphis
South Florida

My best guess would be BYU and Cincinnati would be their first choice. However, BYU may still be a No-Go, so #12 is still the question mark.

If they go to 14, my guess is this:

BYU
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Memphis
South Florida

But here again BYU is probably a No-Go.

(05-24-2013 08:48 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 08:05 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 08:00 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 12:45 AM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 12:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I seriously doubt anyone will even notice the one less game, since (a) in this scenario they have the same # of games as LSU, and (b) FSU's extra game will almost surely be a rent-a-win.

Given recent history, i would say that in your scenario what will be decisive is SOS, and based on that, Texas is likely to get the fourth playoff spot, with LSU a strong second choice, and FSU a clear third.

Oh... one less game is obvious. Sorry for the tripping up and blowing the CCG. That's life. Hasn't hurt the SEC for the past seven years. Do not be a chicken.... SOS in the Big XII won't get you in but it might get the loser of the SEC/B1G CCG game in.

CCGs are two-edged swords, if you win them they can help if you lose them they will hurt. In the above scenario, Texas might be hurt vis-a-vis LSU, but not FSU, since FSU usually plays a soft schedule. The one game likely won't be missed at all.

FSU usually plays a soft schedule? Really? FSU gets to do something the Big 12 doesn't get...a high profile SEC opponent and the end of the year (Florida). Btw...

Have you looked at the BIG 12's OOC schedules? Let's not talk about soft.

Two of the four OOC Games for FSU in 2014 are the Florida Gators & Notre Dame....

OOC games are only a part, and a smaller part, of overall SOS. E.g., even playing a very highly ranked Florida team last year, FSU's SOS (by Sagarin) was 65, Texas's was 12. A soft SOS will surely hurt any team being considered for the playoffs.

(05-24-2013 08:05 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 08:00 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 12:45 AM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 12:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-23-2013 10:27 PM)Maize Wrote:  It could hurt them by having 1 less game then the other leagues...you could see a situation like this:

12-1 Alabama-(SEC Champion)
12-1 Southern Cal-(Pac 12 Champion)
12-1 Ohio State- (B1G Champion)

3 Spots for the 4th school...12-1 Florida State-(ACC Champion), 11-1 LSU-(only loss to Alabama @ Bama by 3) or 11-1 Texas-(Big XII Champion)

I seriously doubt anyone will even notice the one less game, since (a) in this scenario they have the same # of games as LSU, and (b) FSU's extra game will almost surely be a rent-a-win.

Given recent history, i would say that in your scenario what will be decisive is SOS, and based on that, Texas is likely to get the fourth playoff spot, with LSU a strong second choice, and FSU a clear third.

Oh... one less game is obvious. Sorry for the tripping up and blowing the CCG. That's life. Hasn't hurt the SEC for the past seven years. Do not be a chicken.... SOS in the Big XII won't get you in but it might get the loser of the SEC/B1G CCG game in.

CCGs are two-edged swords, if you win them they can help if you lose them they will hurt. In the above scenario, Texas might be hurt vis-a-vis LSU, but not FSU, since FSU usually plays a soft schedule. The one game likely won't be missed at all.

FSU usually plays a soft schedule? Really? FSU gets to do something the Big 12 doesn't get...a high profile SEC opponent and the end of the year (Florida).

... which of course is a two-edge sword, as FSU loses to Florida at least as often as it beats them. FSU is historically the best shot the ACC will have to make the playoffs, but a loss in the Florida game will be impossible to overcome, being so high-profile and so late in the season.

(05-24-2013 09:08 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 08:48 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 08:05 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 08:00 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 12:45 AM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  Oh... one less game is obvious. Sorry for the tripping up and blowing the CCG. That's life. Hasn't hurt the SEC for the past seven years. Do not be a chicken.... SOS in the Big XII won't get you in but it might get the loser of the SEC/B1G CCG game in.

CCGs are two-edged swords, if you win them they can help if you lose them they will hurt. In the above scenario, Texas might be hurt vis-a-vis LSU, but not FSU, since FSU usually plays a soft schedule. The one game likely won't be missed at all.

FSU usually plays a soft schedule? Really? FSU gets to do something the Big 12 doesn't get...a high profile SEC opponent and the end of the year (Florida). Btw...

Have you looked at the BIG 12's OOC schedules? Let's not talk about soft.

Two of the four OOC Games for FSU in 2014 are the Florida Gators & Notre Dame....

OOC games are only a part, and a smaller part, of overall SOS. E.g., even playing a very highly ranked Florida team last year, FSU's SOS (by Sagarin) was 65, Texas's was 12. A soft SOS will surely hurt any team being considered for the playoffs.

A side benefit...Maryland off their schedule...Louisville on it with Miami, Clemson, Florida & Notre Dame...4 schools going into the 2013 season in everyone Top 15-(Clemson, Notre Dame, Florida & Louisville)...if those four continue that SOS just got a lot better.

I know many people dismiss this, but NIU sits within 60 miles of Chicago and has over 200,000 alums in the area. The Orange Bowl was the top rated TV game on New Year's. NIU has a long way to go facilities, budget, and support-wise to measure up against the Big 12, but if the Big 12 added NIU and Cincinnati, WVU would have UC as a partner and Iowa St. would have NIU. Laugh now, but stranger things have happened. NIU had a 50% increase in applications after the OB. Give a couple of years and who knows.

(05-24-2013 09:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 08:05 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 08:00 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 12:45 AM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 12:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I seriously doubt anyone will even notice the one less game, since (a) in this scenario they have the same # of games as LSU, and (b) FSU's extra game will almost surely be a rent-a-win.

Given recent history, i would say that in your scenario what will be decisive is SOS, and based on that, Texas is likely to get the fourth playoff spot, with LSU a strong second choice, and FSU a clear third.

Oh... one less game is obvious. Sorry for the tripping up and blowing the CCG. That's life. Hasn't hurt the SEC for the past seven years. Do not be a chicken.... SOS in the Big XII won't get you in but it might get the loser of the SEC/B1G CCG game in.

CCGs are two-edged swords, if you win them they can help if you lose them they will hurt. In the above scenario, Texas might be hurt vis-a-vis LSU, but not FSU, since FSU usually plays a soft schedule. The one game likely won't be missed at all.

FSU usually plays a soft schedule? Really? FSU gets to do something the Big 12 doesn't get...a high profile SEC opponent and the end of the year (Florida).

... which of course is a two-edge sword, as FSU loses to Florida at least as often as it beats them. FSU is historically the best shot the ACC will have to make the playoffs, but a loss in the Florida game will be impossible to overcome, being so high-profile and so late in the season.

With the talent Dabo is bringing in watch out for Clemson...key games OOC for them are Georgia & South Carolina...ended the season nicely last year by beating LSU...

(05-24-2013 09:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 08:05 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 08:00 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 12:45 AM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 12:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I seriously doubt anyone will even notice the one less game, since (a) in this scenario they have the same # of games as LSU, and (b) FSU's extra game will almost surely be a rent-a-win.

Given recent history, i would say that in your scenario what will be decisive is SOS, and based on that, Texas is likely to get the fourth playoff spot, with LSU a strong second choice, and FSU a clear third.

Oh... one less game is obvious. Sorry for the tripping up and blowing the CCG. That's life. Hasn't hurt the SEC for the past seven years. Do not be a chicken.... SOS in the Big XII won't get you in but it might get the loser of the SEC/B1G CCG game in.

CCGs are two-edged swords, if you win them they can help if you lose them they will hurt. In the above scenario, Texas might be hurt vis-a-vis LSU, but not FSU, since FSU usually plays a soft schedule. The one game likely won't be missed at all.

FSU usually plays a soft schedule? Really? FSU gets to do something the Big 12 doesn't get...a high profile SEC opponent and the end of the year (Florida).

... which of course is a two-edge sword, as FSU loses to Florida at least as often as it beats them. FSU is historically the best shot the ACC will have to make the playoffs, but a loss in the Florida game will be impossible to overcome, being so high-profile and so late in the season.

And that's fine. It just means the ACC will always be in the conversation. Can't always say that for the Big 12 and definitely not for the AAC

(05-24-2013 09:50 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 09:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 08:05 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 08:00 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 12:45 AM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  Oh... one less game is obvious. Sorry for the tripping up and blowing the CCG. That's life. Hasn't hurt the SEC for the past seven years. Do not be a chicken.... SOS in the Big XII won't get you in but it might get the loser of the SEC/B1G CCG game in.

CCGs are two-edged swords, if you win them they can help if you lose them they will hurt. In the above scenario, Texas might be hurt vis-a-vis LSU, but not FSU, since FSU usually plays a soft schedule. The one game likely won't be missed at all.

FSU usually plays a soft schedule? Really? FSU gets to do something the Big 12 doesn't get...a high profile SEC opponent and the end of the year (Florida).

... which of course is a two-edge sword, as FSU loses to Florida at least as often as it beats them. FSU is historically the best shot the ACC will have to make the playoffs, but a loss in the Florida game will be impossible to overcome, being so high-profile and so late in the season.

And that's fine. It just means the ACC will always be in the conversation. Can't always say that for the Big 12 and definitely not for the AAC

1- The Big 12 would have made it far more over the last decade than the ACC.

2- FSU gets UF in non-con. Great. They also have one less league game so if we compare it to a B12 schedule it's not as strong as we don't have as many weak teams at the bottom and we don't get to miss any of them on schedules.

(05-24-2013 10:05 AM)S11 Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 09:50 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 09:13 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 08:05 AM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 08:00 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  CCGs are two-edged swords, if you win them they can help if you lose them they will hurt. In the above scenario, Texas might be hurt vis-a-vis LSU, but not FSU, since FSU usually plays a soft schedule. The one game likely won't be missed at all.

FSU usually plays a soft schedule? Really? FSU gets to do something the Big 12 doesn't get...a high profile SEC opponent and the end of the year (Florida).

... which of course is a two-edge sword, as FSU loses to Florida at least as often as it beats them. FSU is historically the best shot the ACC will have to make the playoffs, but a loss in the Florida game will be impossible to overcome, being so high-profile and so late in the season.

And that's fine. It just means the ACC will always be in the conversation. Can't always say that for the Big 12 and definitely not for the AAC

1- The Big 12 would have made it far more over the last decade than the ACC.

2- FSU gets UF in non-con. Great. They also have one less league game so if we compare it to a B12 schedule it's not as strong as we don't have as many weak teams at the bottom and we don't get to miss any of them on schedules.

You're right. Over the past decade the Big 12 would have made it but that's because our top football schools took a nose dive. Well they are on their way back so I expect that to change somewhat.

The Big 12 has terrible non-conference schedules. In addition, this is where the Big 12 gets hurt, your bottom may not be as bad as the ACC but you have to play all of them. In the ACC, you miss half of them because there are more teams.

The ACC has more teams. But many of them have not performed on the football field. Last year the only B12 team that didn't make it to a bowl game was Kansas. The other 90% of the teams in the B12 did. The ACC will never have a similar success rate, nor will any other conference...

The B12 has no need of a conference championship game, even though many fans of schools left out of the P5 setup wish it to be otherwise, giving them hope for inclusion. There is no rule requiring a conference championship game, nor is there any push for such a rule to be enacted. B12 teams play everyone in every sport every year, just like a true conference should. This gives the B12 a true champion most years, and there are rules in place for determining the champion in case of a tie. So I see no problem, other than the fact that many here wish to force the B12 to include their favorite teams (currently on the outside looking in), even though the B12 has no desire to do so...

(05-24-2013 10:28 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  The ACC has more teams. But many of them have not performed on the football field. Last year the only B12 team that didn't make it to a bowl game was Kansas. The other 90% of the teams in the B12 did. The ACC will never have a similar success rate, nor will any other conference...

The B12 has no need of a conference championship game, even though many fans of schools left out of the P5 setup wish it to be otherwise, giving them hope for inclusion. There is no rule requiring a conference championship game, nor is there any push for such a rule to be enacted. B12 teams play everyone in every sport every year, just like a true conference should. This gives the B12 a true champion most years, and there are rules in place for determining the champion in case of a tie. So I see no problem, other than the fact that many here wish to force the B12 to include their favorite teams (currently on the outside looking in), even though the B12 has no desire to do so...

I actually agree with you, but in college football (more than any other sport), perception is reality. Right now, the perception is that the B12 is the "easiest" to win of the P5 due to less teams and no Champ game. That perception is going to matter IMO.

(05-24-2013 09:19 AM)bigredmachine Wrote:  I know many people dismiss this, but NIU sits within 60 miles of Chicago and has over 200,000 alums in the area. The Orange Bowl was the top rated TV game on New Year's. NIU has a long way to go facilities, budget, and support-wise to measure up against the Big 12, but if the Big 12 added NIU and Cincinnati, WVU would have UC as a partner and Iowa St. would have NIU. Laugh now, but stranger things have happened. NIU had a 50% increase in applications after the OB. Give a couple of years and who knows.

Geography works but I don't see the fan interest. Ticket sales according to USA Today's database were very low at under 1mm, contributions were under 1.5mm, and tv ratings on espn were below what they typically get in the midweek time slots.

Furthermore despite the school subsidizing 70% of the budget with a 16mm subsidy it still could only muster a 6mm budget for football. That doesn't imply the ability to compete well vs the other power 5 if invited. Even if we added them and it presented 20mm in new revenue they'd simply be pulling even budget wise with other options like UCF, USF, Cincy, and SMU. It's post-B12 budget would be 20mm behind UConn or BYU.

I simply don't see it.

(05-24-2013 10:28 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  The ACC has more teams. But many of them have not performed on the football field. Last year the only B12 team that didn't make it to a bowl game was Kansas. The other 90% of the teams in the B12 did. The ACC will never have a similar success rate, nor will any other conference...

The B12 has no need of a conference championship game, even though many fans of schools left out of the P5 setup wish it to be otherwise, giving them hope for inclusion. There is no rule requiring a conference championship game, nor is there any push for such a rule to be enacted. B12 teams play everyone in every sport every year, just like a true conference should. This gives the B12 a true champion most years, and there are rules in place for determining the champion in case of a tie. So I see no problem, other than the fact that many here wish to force the B12 to include their favorite teams (currently on the outside looking in), even though the B12 has no desire to do so...

Well said Bit. Some get it and others won't look at reality. They hope the Big 12 expands to make their miserable situation better but how does that help the Big 12? We don't have a conference TV network so adding new subscribers won't help. TV execs have said schools with small fan bases won't increase our TV contract.

Like you said, we are now left with beggars claiming they will help us and increase our TV contract which simply isn't the case. If they added any value, they would have it in the conference they currently reside in.

(05-24-2013 10:44 AM)uccheese Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 10:28 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  The ACC has more teams. But many of them have not performed on the football field. Last year the only B12 team that didn't make it to a bowl game was Kansas. The other 90% of the teams in the B12 did. The ACC will never have a similar success rate, nor will any other conference...

The B12 has no need of a conference championship game, even though many fans of schools left out of the P5 setup wish it to be otherwise, giving them hope for inclusion. There is no rule requiring a conference championship game, nor is there any push for such a rule to be enacted. B12 teams play everyone in every sport every year, just like a true conference should. This gives the B12 a true champion most years, and there are rules in place for determining the champion in case of a tie. So I see no problem, other than the fact that many here wish to force the B12 to include their favorite teams (currently on the outside looking in), even though the B12 has no desire to do so...

I actually agree with you, but in college football (more than any other sport), perception is reality. Right now, the perception is that the B12 is the "easiest" to win of the P5 due to less teams and no Champ game. That perception is going to matter IMO.

I think the perception is the B12 is "unwilling to take the risk" of a CCG....

(05-24-2013 12:15 PM)Underdog Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 10:44 AM)uccheese Wrote:  

(05-24-2013 10:28 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  The ACC has more teams. But many of them have not performed on the football field. Last year the only B12 team that didn't make it to a bowl game was Kansas. The other 90% of the teams in the B12 did. The ACC will never have a similar success rate, nor will any other conference...

The B12 has no need of a conference championship game, even though many fans of schools left out of the P5 setup wish it to be otherwise, giving them hope for inclusion. There is no rule requiring a conference championship game, nor is there any push for such a rule to be enacted. B12 teams play everyone in every sport every year, just like a true conference should. This gives the B12 a true champion most years, and there are rules in place for determining the champion in case of a tie. So I see no problem, other than the fact that many here wish to force the B12 to include their favorite teams (currently on the outside looking in), even though the B12 has no desire to do so...

I actually agree with you, but in college football (more than any other sport), perception is reality. Right now, the perception is that the B12 is the "easiest" to win of the P5 due to less teams and no Champ game. That perception is going to matter IMO.

I think the perception is the B12 is "unwilling to take the risk" of a CCG....

Why should they take the risk? There is no proof of any reward that outweighs that risk. The only sure benefit of a conference title game is the revenue generated by the game, and in the Big 12's case that additional revenue would be more than offset by the cost of splitting their money pie 12 ways instead of 10.

If there were two or more schools available to the Big 12 that would increase the per-school revenue take of the conference, they would have already been added.

(05-24-2013 08:49 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  When all is said and done, the Big 12 will add at least 2 more team and maybe 4 teams. The Big 12 owns the names of Big 14 and Big 18. The teams I see for possible Big 12/14 expansion are:

BYU
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Memphis
South Florida

My best guess would be BYU and Cincinnati would be their first choice. However, BYU may still be a No-Go, so #12 is still the question mark.

If they go to 14, my guess is this:

BYU
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Memphis
South Florida

But here again BYU is probably a No-Go.

Look to non-PAC12 California programs, that is where they should go.