With the ACC's signing of the GOR there is no question what conference will survive the next round of conference realignment. The Big 12 signed its own death warrant by not inviting Louisville and Cincinnati/BYU to go along with WVU. If FSU and Clemson didn't have a football program like Louisville to lobby into the ACC and had to add UConnn to replace Maryland they would not have stayed in that conference.

A Big 12 network will never happen with its lack of markets and the LHN, eventually the television money will decline in comparison to the B1G, SEC, PAC-12, and possibly even the football-challenged ACC. Once the GOR expires, the B1G and PAC-12 will have its sights set on expansion and the Big 12 suddenly became the most vulnerable. The Big 12 is living on borrowed time, the GOR expires in 2025.

(04-23-2013 10:57 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  With the ACC's signing of the GOR there is no question what conference will survive the next round of conference realignment. The Big 12 signed its own death warrant by not inviting Louisville and Cincinnati/BYU to go along with WVU. If FSU and Clemson didn't have a football program like Louisville to lobby into the ACC and had to add UConnn to replace Maryland they would not have stayed in that conference.

A Big 12 network will never happen with its lack of markets and the LHN, eventually the television money will decline in comparison to the B1G, SEC, PAC-12, and possibly even the football-challenged ACC. Once the GOR expires, the B1G and PAC-12 will have its sights set on expansion and the Big 12 suddenly became the most vulnerable. The Big 12 is living on borrowed time, the GOR expires in 2025.

Maybe sooner if some school is willing to take a money hit for just leaving two, three, or even five years prior to the expiration of the GoR. We know which schools can afford that. We already know the B1G can and will provide "expense money". Short term loss for long term gain...

I really don't know what will happen between 25 and 30. All hell could potentially break lose or there is a totally different paradigm that further slows expansion/realignment. These 14 team leagues may split in the future. So who knows just 10 teams may be the perfect # for a conference and the rest downsize. I'm not ready to say any conference is on "borrowed time".

12 more years of borrowed time? That's 61 dog years and nearly 40 conference realignment years.

(04-23-2013 11:14 PM)Fireman451 Wrote:  12 more years of borrowed time? That's like 40 years in conference realignment terms.

True, but every year that passes, the GOR becomes less and less of a barrier. Eventually the cost-benefit scale will tip in some schools favor.

(04-23-2013 11:16 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  

(04-23-2013 11:14 PM)Fireman451 Wrote:  12 more years of borrowed time? That's like 40 years in conference realignment terms.

True, but every year that passes, the GOR becomes less and less of a barrier. Eventually the cost-benefit scale will tip in some schools favor.

Exactly, and as I stated earlier, we know who these schools are that can afford a temporary money hit.

(04-23-2013 11:14 PM)Fireman451 Wrote:  12 more years of borrowed time? That's 61 dog years and nearly 40 conference realignment years.

By the time these top-conference TV contracts end, who knows whether the TV rights will be less or more valuable than today, or whether it will be financially more beneficial to have a supersized league or to drop the weak links and have a smaller conference.

But doesn't the Big XII also have a GoR?

Also, this is the best thing that could happen to Cincy. This makes the likelihood of being invited to the Big XII greater since WVU is on that island. In a few years the mountaineers will be pushing for a partner and you guys are the best fit now that the Cards are gone.

(04-23-2013 10:57 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  With the ACC's signing of the GOR there is no question what conference will survive the next round of conference realignment. The Big 12 signed its own death warrant by not inviting Louisville and Cincinnati/BYU to go along with WVU. If FSU and Clemson didn't have a football program like Louisville to lobby into the ACC and had to add UConnn to replace Maryland they would not have stayed in that conference.

A Big 12 network will never happen with its lack of markets and the LHN, eventually the television money will decline in comparison to the B1G, SEC, PAC-12, and possibly even the football-challenged ACC. Once the GOR expires, the B1G and PAC-12 will have its sights set on expansion and the Big 12 suddenly became the most vulnerable. The Big 12 is living on borrowed time, the GOR expires in 2025.

The Big 12's ratings last year were nearly as good as the B1G and better than the ACC and Pac 12. Even SEC officials have said Big 12 might be earning more per school in 2014. Adding UL and UC would have been steps that might have condemned the Big 12. Big 12 is fine. 10 school leagues were around a long time. No 14 or larger team league has ever stayed intact for a long time.

The big 12 is viable as long as Texas stays. If Texas leaves who knows. Has nothing to do with Cincinnati and UConn

(04-24-2013 07:22 AM)JMUDuke25 Wrote:  The big 12 is viable as long as Texas stays. If Texas leaves who knows. Has nothing to do with Cincinnati and UConn

This--^

The Big12 is relevant as long as UT and to a lessor degree OU stay.

Adding Cincy, Ville would've been my choices with WVU. Get WVU in for '12 then announce Cincy and Ville within 27 months (BE transfer rules).

I would've looked at BYU, Boise, USF, UCF and Memphis as possible extra adds but not right away.

(04-24-2013 07:50 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(04-24-2013 07:22 AM)JMUDuke25 Wrote:  The big 12 is viable as long as Texas stays. If Texas leaves who knows. Has nothing to do with Cincinnati and UConn

This--^

The Big12 is relevant as long as UT and to a lessor degree OU stay.

Adding Cincy, Ville would've been my choices with WVU. Get WVU in for '10 then announce Cincy and Ville within 27 months.

I would've looked at BYU, Boise, USF, UCF and Memphis as possible extra adds but not right away.

I agree. The problem with the big east was not markets, it was that they did not have a premier team. WVU was good, but a team that was going to challenge for the national title a few times a decade. A conference needs a few heavyweights for national perception and to help with the TV contract. As long as you have TX and OU, the B12 will be fine. Also, the B12 has schools like OSU, KU, Baylor, KSU that will rise up and have a top 15 season every few years.

I understand why they did not invite UofL (and to a lesser extent UC) right away. While UofL is hot, they could potentially pick off ACC teams with bigger footprints and national notoriety. The ACC stepped up and got their act together with ND, potential Cable channel and GOR stopping it to their credit.

(04-23-2013 10:57 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  With the ACC's signing of the GOR there is no question what conference will survive the next round of conference realignment. The Big 12 signed its own death warrant by not inviting Louisville and Cincinnati/BYU to go along with WVU. If FSU and Clemson didn't have a football program like Louisville to lobby into the ACC and had to add UConnn to replace Maryland they would not have stayed in that conference.

A Big 12 network will never happen with its lack of markets and the LHN, eventually the television money will decline in comparison to the B1G, SEC, PAC-12, and possibly even the football-challenged ACC. Once the GOR expires, the B1G and PAC-12 will have its sights set on expansion and the Big 12 suddenly became the most vulnerable. The Big 12 is living on borrowed time, the GOR expires in 2025.

If the Big 12 wants to add BYU, which is 1100 miles away from Lawrence, ks with no one in between, why couldn't they also add UConn which is 1300 miles away with West Virginia in between as a closer conference mate.

The Big 12 is a football conference that doesn't really need Florida State. However they would greatly benefit from the basketball upgrade that UConn would bring. As a UConn fan, I'm actually not in favor of this but it's an option for the Big 12 if they want to explore it.

Or they could look to Cincinnati who would be a much better travel partner and nearby rival for West Virginia than Florida State would be.

It's not like they're out of options if they want to get to 12.

(04-24-2013 08:09 AM)bearcat29 Wrote:  

(04-24-2013 07:50 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(04-24-2013 07:22 AM)JMUDuke25 Wrote:  The big 12 is viable as long as Texas stays. If Texas leaves who knows. Has nothing to do with Cincinnati and UConn

This--^

The Big12 is relevant as long as UT and to a lessor degree OU stay.

Adding Cincy, Ville would've been my choices with WVU. Get WVU in for '10 then announce Cincy and Ville within 27 months.

I would've looked at BYU, Boise, USF, UCF and Memphis as possible extra adds but not right away.

I agree. The problem with the big east was not markets, it was that they did not have a premier team. WVU was good, but a team that was going to challenge for the national title a few times a decade. A conference needs a few heavyweights for national perception and to help with the TV contract. As long as you have TX and OU, the B12 will be fine. Also, the B12 has schools like OSU, KU, Baylor, KSU that will rise up and have a top 15 season every few years.

I understand why they did not invite UofL (and to a lesser extent UC) right away. While UofL is hot, they could potentially pick off ACC teams with bigger footprints and national notoriety. The ACC stepped up and got their act together with ND, potential Cable channel and GOR stopping it to their credit.

Unless the SEC or Big 10 had raided the Acc first, the Big 12 was never in a position to raid the Acc. Acc fans have repeatedly said this. Does anyone really believe that if FSU was willing to leave the Acc and join the Big 12 that the Big 12 would have waited more than a New York minute to invite them? FSU Would instantly become the second most valuable fb team in the league.

(04-24-2013 08:09 AM)bearcat29 Wrote:  

(04-24-2013 07:50 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(04-24-2013 07:22 AM)JMUDuke25 Wrote:  The big 12 is viable as long as Texas stays. If Texas leaves who knows. Has nothing to do with Cincinnati and UConn

This--^

The Big12 is relevant as long as UT and to a lessor degree OU stay.

Adding Cincy, Ville would've been my choices with WVU. Get WVU in for '10 then announce Cincy and Ville within 27 months.

I would've looked at BYU, Boise, USF, UCF and Memphis as possible extra adds but not right away.

I agree. The problem with the big east was not markets, it was that they did not have a premier team. WVU was good, but a team that was going to challenge for the national title a few times a decade. A conference needs a few heavyweights for national perception and to help with the TV contract. As long as you have TX and OU, the B12 will be fine. Also, the B12 has schools like OSU, KU, Baylor, KSU that will rise up and have a top 15 season every few years.

I understand why they did not invite UofL (and to a lesser extent UC) right away. While UofL is hot, they could potentially pick off ACC teams with bigger footprints and national notoriety. The ACC stepped up and got their act together with ND, potential Cable channel and GOR stopping it to their credit.

If the Big East's problem was lack of a premier team, why were they vulnerable in 2003? They had Miami who had been to back-to-back championship games in 2001-02 and won the NC in 2001.

(04-23-2013 10:57 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  A Big 12 network will never happen with its lack of markets and the LHN, eventually the television money will decline in comparison to the B1G, SEC, PAC-12, and possibly even the football-challenged ACC. Once the GOR expires, the B1G and PAC-12 will have its sights set on expansion and the Big 12 suddenly became the most vulnerable. The Big 12 is living on borrowed time, the GOR expires in 2025.

In the world of college athletics, 12 years is a couple of lifetimes, so it sounds like the Big 12 is as safe and secure as any other P5 conference.

Hell, didn't they just ally with the SEC? That's a pretty safe and secure ally to have. And what is this talk about "lack of markets"? Not even sure what that means.

(04-24-2013 08:09 AM)bearcat29 Wrote:  

(04-24-2013 07:50 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(04-24-2013 07:22 AM)JMUDuke25 Wrote:  The big 12 is viable as long as Texas stays. If Texas leaves who knows. Has nothing to do with Cincinnati and UConn

This--^

The Big12 is relevant as long as UT and to a lessor degree OU stay.

Adding Cincy, Ville would've been my choices with WVU. Get WVU in for '10 then announce Cincy and Ville within 27 months.

I would've looked at BYU, Boise, USF, UCF and Memphis as possible extra adds but not right away.

I agree. The problem with the big east was not markets, it was that they did not have a premier team. WVU was good, but a team that was going to challenge for the national title a few times a decade. A conference needs a few heavyweights for national perception and to help with the TV contract. As long as you have TX and OU, the B12 will be fine. Also, the B12 has schools like OSU, KU, Baylor, KSU that will rise up and have a top 15 season every few years.

I understand why they did not invite UofL (and to a lesser extent UC) right away. While UofL is hot, they could potentially pick off ACC teams with bigger footprints and national notoriety. The ACC stepped up and got their act together with ND, potential Cable channel and GOR stopping it to their credit.

If you don't have at least one particularly team regularly getting in the top 10-15 and one other team (doesn't have to be the same one) regularly joining them, you get ignored by the public. The BE survived longer than many expected (including me) because they did that starting in 2005 with UL and WVU both good for a few years and others rising up. But then UL went down and no one else consistently moved up. There was still some decent value, but then WVU, Pitt and SU left.

(04-23-2013 10:57 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  With the ACC's signing of the GOR there is no question what conference will survive the next round of conference realignment. The Big 12 signed its own death warrant by not inviting Louisville and Cincinnati/BYU to go along with WVU. If FSU and Clemson didn't have a football program like Louisville to lobby into the ACC and had to add UConnn to replace Maryland they would not have stayed in that conference.

A Big 12 network will never happen with its lack of markets and the LHN, eventually the television money will decline in comparison to the B1G, SEC, PAC-12, and possibly even the football-challenged ACC. Once the GOR expires, the B1G and PAC-12 will have its sights set on expansion and the Big 12 suddenly became the most vulnerable. The Big 12 is living on borrowed time, the GOR expires in 2025.

IMO, the ACC GOR makes it most likely both the ACC and the Big 12 survive, at least for the intermediate-term foreseeable future (10-20 years) because is stops the Big 10/SEC creep.

I think it is important to realize that the the Big 12 and ACC are partnering up here on some level. Right now informally (helping the ACC up draw a GOR, as the DMN reports), and soon to be more formally (schedule alliances, maybe some bowl sharing, other mutual service sharing). I could see maybe even in the future some sort of TV rights sharing.

Bottom line, the only way to stop the SEC/Big 10 creep is for the ACC and Big 12 to cooperate. I think you'll see that cooperation strengthen both conferences and actually shift the power somewhat away from the Big 10/SEC. I don't think any Big 12 teams going to the ACC or visa versa really was ever going to happen- just too complex and geographically a poor mix. But via alliances and cooperation they can both become stronger players in the college sports marketplace.

(04-24-2013 08:19 AM)cuseroc Wrote:  Does anyone really believe that if FSU was willing to leave the Acc and join the Big 12 that the Big 12 would have waited more than a New York minute to invite them?

Well, yes, i do. :)

IMO. the Big 12 never seriously wanted FSU, except for that brief period of time after the SEC raid when its existence seemed imperiled and it added TCU and WVU to stave that off.

But once the big TV contracts were signed, the Big 12 didn't need FSU and didn't seriously pursue them. Too much geographical and cultural distance there.

(04-24-2013 08:21 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(04-24-2013 08:09 AM)bearcat29 Wrote:  

(04-24-2013 07:50 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(04-24-2013 07:22 AM)JMUDuke25 Wrote:  The big 12 is viable as long as Texas stays. If Texas leaves who knows. Has nothing to do with Cincinnati and UConn

This--^

The Big12 is relevant as long as UT and to a lessor degree OU stay.

Adding Cincy, Ville would've been my choices with WVU. Get WVU in for '10 then announce Cincy and Ville within 27 months.

I would've looked at BYU, Boise, USF, UCF and Memphis as possible extra adds but not right away.

I agree. The problem with the big east was not markets, it was that they did not have a premier team. WVU was good, but a team that was going to challenge for the national title a few times a decade. A conference needs a few heavyweights for national perception and to help with the TV contract. As long as you have TX and OU, the B12 will be fine. Also, the B12 has schools like OSU, KU, Baylor, KSU that will rise up and have a top 15 season every few years.

I understand why they did not invite UofL (and to a lesser extent UC) right away. While UofL is hot, they could potentially pick off ACC teams with bigger footprints and national notoriety. The ACC stepped up and got their act together with ND, potential Cable channel and GOR stopping it to their credit.

If you don't have at least one particularly team regularly getting in the top 10-15 and one other team (doesn't have to be the same one) regularly joining them, you get ignored by the public. The BE survived longer than many expected (including me) because they did that starting in 2005 with UL and WVU both good for a few years and others rising up. But then UL went down and no one else consistently moved up. There was still some decent value, but then WVU, Pitt and SU left.

The Big East's success in winning BCS games from 2005 onwards had little or nothing to do with their survival until 2013. They survived as long as the BCS system survived and would have whether they won those BCS games or not, as their membership was contractual. If it had been up to the general football public, the Big East would have been booted from AQ long before then, as winning those BCS games never changed the perception that the conference was not AQ-worthy.

Hell, the ACC lost all kinds of BCS games and their membership in the BCS sysstem was never questioned.