He of NYTimes politcal prediction fame issued his probabilities on the NCAA Tournament.

Gives MTSU a 55.5% chance of advancing past Saint Mary's.
Gives WKU a 1.8% chance of advancing past Kansas.

Chance of advancing to the round of 32
MTSU 23.9%
WKU 1.8%

Sweet 16
MTSU 7.8%
WKU 0.3%

Elite Eight
MTSU 2.5%
WKU <0.1%

Final Four
MTSU 0.6%
WKU <0.1%

Finals
MTSU 0.2%
WKU <0.1%

Champions
MTSU <0.1%
WKU <0.1%

It will be a solid week for the Sun Belt if his percentages hold. Be even better if we win the one predicted and steal another.

So you are saying there is a chance?

(03-18-2013 02:15 PM)freshtop Wrote:  So you are saying there is a chance?

Let's see under Self, Kansas as #2 beat Detroit by 15 last year. As a #1 beat Boston U by 18, again as #1 beat Lehigh by 16. As a #3 beat NDSU by 10. In 2008 as #1 beat Portland State by 24. In 2007 beat Niagra by 40. In 2006 as #4 lost to Bradley by 4. In 2005 as #3 lost to Bucknell by 1. In 2004 as #4 beat Illinois-Chicago by 34.

Eventually a 16 is going to win if for no other reason than the fact that today 2 of the 16's are teams that used to be 15's.

Kansas has been all over the place in the first round under Self so anything can happen but I think Silver is probably right in tabbing as about a 1 in 50 chance. TCU was a 20 game loser and beat KU so you never know.

WKU is also probably the biggest "name" to ever get a 16 seed. I have seen a couple of close calls in the last decade but it's a tall order.

WKU....a name....wow......lol.

(03-18-2013 03:20 PM)OsageJ Wrote:  WKU....a name....wow......lol.

??? I didn't say it would help them win.


http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/m_basketba...010-16.pdf Page 45

18th in total wins. 8th best winning % all time; just ahead of Louisville and behind Syracuse. I haven't spent time researching but I'd bet no one with that type of winning % has ever been a 16.

(03-18-2013 02:15 PM)freshtop Wrote:  So you are saying there is a chance?

It is amazing how often Dumb and Dumber get quoted in my office.

(03-18-2013 03:34 PM)Buzz Lightyear Lite Wrote:  

(03-18-2013 02:15 PM)freshtop Wrote:  So you are saying there is a chance?

It is amazing how often Dumb and Dumber get quoted in my office.

on purpose or coincidentally?

(03-18-2013 03:34 PM)Buzz Lightyear Lite Wrote:  

(03-18-2013 02:15 PM)freshtop Wrote:  So you are saying there is a chance?

It is amazing how often Dumb and Dumber get quoted in my office.

Husband? Wait a minute... what was all that 'one in a million' talk?

Nate Silver picks the favorite in a couple elections and now thinks he is Harry Seldon.