(03-15-2013 10:09 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  The problem is, no conference can survive in D1A with four or more private schools. We've seen it before. Those conferences get torn apart by the big state schools.

SWC: Baylor, Rice, SMU, TCU
WAC: BYU, Rice, SMU, TCU, Tulsa
CUSA: Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa
ACC: Boston College, Duke, Miami, Syracuse, Wake Forest

If you include the service academies there are enough strong private schools to form a fairly strong conference of their own. Since most of the realignment has been selectively cutting the private schools out of their expansion plans this may be a way to have a fourth viable conference. If the ACC goes then the strength of the Big 10 and SEC will outgrow the Big 12 (with no network) significantly and I believe we are headed to three large conferences with a vast majority of their 60+ schools being state schools, if for no other reason than those schools are looking for cash now that most state education budgets are being cut. A Private School conference would at least give those universities more leverage.

Some people will tell you it's its lack of recent football success. Others will tell you it's a slightly lower TV contract, compared to some other conferences. Some say it's a lack of grant of rights. Others say it is geography, if you flipped the ACC and PAC-12, they'd be in each others shoes. I say its problem is other people jumping to conclusions.

(03-15-2013 10:33 AM)OrangeCrush22 Wrote:  Some people will tell you it's its lack of recent football success. Others will tell you it's a slightly lower TV contract, compared to some other conferences. Some say it's a lack of grant of rights. Others say it is geography, if you flipped the ACC and PAC-12, they'd be in each others shoes. I say its problem is other people jumping to conclusions.

+3 And that is why I'm :irate:

Not only is JRsec absolutely correct about the networks' objectives - but that these objectives include the absolute destruction of some long-standing athletic programs.

Once the perceived "top" is completely cut off from the bottom, expect attendance for schools at the bottom to drop even further into the abyss. If you're not in the party once it's all said and done, then you might as well just follow another local school IN the party for football since your school is now playing for absolutely nothing. Every school should have the opportunity to be able to schedule top teams in OOC play and know that with a 12-0 record they will be in SERIOUS consideration when it comes to making the playoffs.

If you can't say that then this is not a competition, but rather a farce.

(03-15-2013 08:12 AM)MickMack Wrote:  

(03-15-2013 06:05 AM)Big 12 Wrote:  

(03-15-2013 05:57 AM)MickMack Wrote:  

(03-15-2013 05:51 AM)Big 12 Wrote:  The instant the ACC signs a GOR, the conference is safe from being raided and everyone who predicted doom & gloom for the ACC is immediately proven wrong.

Any day now on that, right?

Is that Wake Forest?

That's Wake Forest's starting center....


Seriously, the ACC is fine. The reason being....they fill a regional niche, the eastern region.

(03-15-2013 10:46 AM)oliveandblue Wrote:  Not only is JRsec absolutely correct about the networks' objectives - but that these objectives include the absolute destruction of some long-standing athletic programs.

Once the perceived "top" is completely cut off from the bottom, expect attendance for schools at the bottom to drop even further into the abyss. If you're not in the party once it's all said and done, then you might as well just follow another local school IN the party for football since your school is now playing for absolutely nothing. Every school should have the opportunity to be able to schedule top teams in OOC play and know that with a 12-0 record they will be in SERIOUS consideration when it comes to making the playoffs.

If you can't say that then this is not a competition, but rather a farce.

Oh the lawsuits.

(03-14-2013 10:42 PM)Villecard Wrote:  Is it solely the TV contract? Looking at it, the league has been on an uptick with their additions of Louisville, Syracuse, Pitt, and ND. However, the ACC is still perceived to be the most likely to be poached. Does it simply come down to money, or is there something more?

There's nothing wrong with the ACC.

If there are defections, it will be because there are some extremely attractive, top quality research universities in the ACC. Public Ivies.

The Big Ten has what no one else has. The CIC. The combination of B1G + CIC is unique. Nothing can compete with it. Other than Texas, there is no one in the Big XII that the B1G wants or would ever want. The SEC is happy doing its thing and there aren't many the B1G would want there anyway. Maybe Vandy or Florida.

It's not the instability of the ACC; it's that they have the schools who are most attractive to the B1G in the locations that the B1G is most interested in.

(03-15-2013 11:00 AM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(03-14-2013 10:42 PM)Villecard Wrote:  Is it solely the TV contract? Looking at it, the league has been on an uptick with their additions of Louisville, Syracuse, Pitt, and ND. However, the ACC is still perceived to be the most likely to be poached. Does it simply come down to money, or is there something more?

Other than Texas, there is no one in the Big XII that the B1G wants or would ever want.

If there were no B12 GOR, I think the B1G might have some interest in Kansas.

(03-15-2013 10:09 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  The problem is, no conference can survive in D1A with four or more private schools. We've seen it before. Those conferences get torn apart by the big state schools.

SWC: Baylor, Rice, SMU, TCU
WAC: BYU, Rice, SMU, TCU, Tulsa
CUSA: Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa
ACC: Boston College, Duke, Miami, Syracuse, Wake Forest

Since the ACC is still very much alive, your chart just says that a conference can't survive having Rice, TCU and SMU as members.

(03-15-2013 11:44 AM)WakeForestRanger Wrote:  

(03-15-2013 10:09 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  The problem is, no conference can survive in D1A with four or more private schools. We've seen it before. Those conferences get torn apart by the big state schools.

SWC: Baylor, Rice, SMU, TCU
WAC: BYU, Rice, SMU, TCU, Tulsa
CUSA: Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa
ACC: Boston College, Duke, Miami, Syracuse, Wake Forest

Since the ACC is still very much alive, your chart just says that a conference can't survive having Rice, TCU and SMU as members.

+3 Spot on!

If you created a world where the Big 5 all shared a TV contract, the only ACC schools that would even consider leaving would be Pitt (B1G), Louisville, Clemson and FSU (SEC). And FSU and Clemson wouldn't necessarily leave.

So its $. Competitiveness in fb is an issue, but its really $.

Just going by the chatter, its pretty easy to conclude that the SEC and B1G could each easily find room for four ACC schools. There is no doubt that the Big 12 could find room for two ACC schools, and maybe more. Well, that adds up to over 70% of the conference, minimum.

Pick your four crappy programs. You can't tell me that - from the perspective of media value - the ACC's worst four are materially worse than:

SEC: Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, UK, Ol' Miss
B1G: Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern, Iowa
Big 12: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, OK State

I did not say football quality. I said media value. Assuming equal on the field performance, do they move the needle when they are on TV compared to the other programs in their conferences?

So, if the ACC is worth so much to these conferences in pieces, why isn't the ACC's intrinsic value sufficient to keep it in one piece?

(03-15-2013 12:18 PM)JunkYardCard Wrote:  Just going by the chatter, its pretty easy to conclude that the SEC and B1G could each easily find room for four ACC schools. There is no doubt that the Big 12 could find room for two ACC schools, and maybe more. Well, that adds up to over 70% of the conference, minimum.

Pick your four crappy programs. You can't tell me that - from the perspective of media value - the ACC's worst four are materially worse than:

SEC: Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, UK, Ol' Miss
B1G: Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern, Iowa
Big 12: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, OK State

I did not say football quality. I said media value. Assuming equal on the field performance, do they move the needle when they are on TV compared to the other programs in their conferences?

So, if the ACC is worth so much to these conferences in pieces, why isn't the ACC's intrinsic value sufficient to keep it in one piece?

the problem is you say equal on the field performance. Wake me up when ACC bottom 4 produces especially like Big 12 teams you listed- with 2 BCS spots, and a flashy team with Heisman trophy winner. Kentucky and Indiana make a TON of money off of hoops- and you have several quality football programs there.

(03-15-2013 12:24 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-15-2013 12:18 PM)JunkYardCard Wrote:  Just going by the chatter, its pretty easy to conclude that the SEC and B1G could each easily find room for four ACC schools. There is no doubt that the Big 12 could find room for two ACC schools, and maybe more. Well, that adds up to over 70% of the conference, minimum.

Pick your four crappy programs. You can't tell me that - from the perspective of media value - the ACC's worst four are materially worse than:

SEC: Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, UK, Ol' Miss
B1G: Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern, Iowa
Big 12: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, OK State

I did not say football quality. I said media value. Assuming equal on the field performance, do they move the needle when they are on TV compared to the other programs in their conferences?

So, if the ACC is worth so much to these conferences in pieces, why isn't the ACC's intrinsic value sufficient to keep it in one piece?

the problem is you say equal on the field performance. Wake me up when ACC bottom 4 produces especially like Big 12 teams you listed- with 2 BCS spots, and a flashy team with Heisman trophy winner. Kentucky and Indiana make a TON of money off of hoops- and you have several quality football programs there.

He is talking media/Market value. You can switch out any of those 4 teams from those conferences and the TV contract will not be affected.

Kentucky and Indiana from just basketball- would impact tv contract. And Big 12- those teams are strong in football- so swapping them out for piss poor teams like what the ACC would have- would make an impact as well..

(03-15-2013 12:38 PM)curtis0620 Wrote:  

(03-15-2013 12:24 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-15-2013 12:18 PM)JunkYardCard Wrote:  Just going by the chatter, its pretty easy to conclude that the SEC and B1G could each easily find room for four ACC schools. There is no doubt that the Big 12 could find room for two ACC schools, and maybe more. Well, that adds up to over 70% of the conference, minimum.

Pick your four crappy programs. You can't tell me that - from the perspective of media value - the ACC's worst four are materially worse than:

SEC: Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, UK, Ol' Miss
B1G: Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern, Iowa
Big 12: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, OK State

I did not say football quality. I said media value. Assuming equal on the field performance, do they move the needle when they are on TV compared to the other programs in their conferences?

So, if the ACC is worth so much to these conferences in pieces, why isn't the ACC's intrinsic value sufficient to keep it in one piece?

the problem is you say equal on the field performance. Wake me up when ACC bottom 4 produces especially like Big 12 teams you listed- with 2 BCS spots, and a flashy team with Heisman trophy winner. Kentucky and Indiana make a TON of money off of hoops- and you have several quality football programs there.

He is talking media/Market value. You can switch out any of those 4 teams from those conferences and the TV contract will not be affected.

Lets say if the SEC got VA Tech and NC State each school maybe worth $20 million to the SEC network for getting in new markets and the B1G got VA and UNC and each school was worth $20 million to the B1G network.

If the ACC starts a network those schools don't get the ACC network $20 million each because of overlap. Plus there is Duke and Wake Forest for more market overlap.

Quote:Since the ACC is still very much alive, your chart just says that a conference can't survive having Rice, TCU and SMU as members.

Its easy to see there is still going to be movement regarding the former BCS conferences.
1. Relatively safe to say SEC, B10, PAC12 are not going to lose anyone.

2. The ACC is the "weakest" of the 5 because of a more basketball focus than any of the other conferences. Smaller stadiums, fan bases and less national names. TV deal, no network also add to it.

The B12 has Texas dominating it. If the B10 or SEC come calling there is little doubt a team won't jump.

The ACC is a lot like the BE when it was getting torn apart. It looked like they would be fine (adding KU, KSU, ISU and BU) until
the the Texas power struggle was ended.

I don't know if the ACC WILL be raided... but I would be it will. There are A LOT of deals and the phone lines are still burning. Power brokers like Delany & Texas and the SEC have an end game scenario in their minds. We can guess all we want, but it just makes us all look silly.

(03-15-2013 12:41 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Kentucky and Indiana from just basketball- would impact tv contract. And Big 12- those teams are strong in football- so swapping them out for piss poor teams like what the ACC would have- would make an impact as well..

Sorry but Basketball is a very small part of the TV Contract. What is it again 80/20?

(03-15-2013 12:38 PM)curtis0620 Wrote:  He is talking media/Market value. You can switch out any of those 4 teams from those conferences and the TV contract will not be affected.

Exactly. Baylor and Wake are a total wash. The have fielded some decent teams, but are totally overshadowed in their own markets. Their success really doesn't net you any additional TV sets. TCU is like that, but their success has created a national presence, so you'd have to judge them by a different metric.

Still, if TCU goes 7-5 or worse for three straight years, they will go back to media market irrelevance. Believe me, we know that more than anything here in Louisville.

(03-15-2013 12:41 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Kentucky and Indiana from just basketball- would impact tv contract. And Big 12- those teams are strong in football- so swapping them out for piss poor teams like what the ACC would have- would make an impact as well..

Who are you considering the bottom four teams in the ACC? If your answer includes Duke then they have just as much basketball value as Kentucky and Indiana have.