(03-14-2013 07:28 PM)He1nousOne Wrote: (03-14-2013 12:19 PM)JunkYardCard Wrote: The IU-Purdue game isn't worth $40 million a year or whatever they are claiming.
Basically, your comparison was overly simplistic.
I was trying to keep it simple to make this basic point. Right now, in terms of media rights, IU and Purdue are in theory worth as much as Michigan and Ohio State because they reside in the same conference and get the same paycheck. In contrast, UNC and UVa are worth far less than IU and Purdue (half??) because they are in the ACC.
That extra money is the result of a somewhat artificial and most likely temporary advantage - the BTN. It is NOT the result of some inherent superiority of Purdue and IU over UNC and UVa in terms of their media value taken in isolation.
The B1G has its own network and the ACC doesn't. That's the advantage. But that won't last forever. A la carte cable TV pricing is coming. It's only a matter of time. Much like Samsung copying Apple's iPhone (and just like Microsoft copying Apple's operating system years before), the other conferences can follow that BTN model as their media contracts expire. The B1G built a better mousetrap. Now everyone will adjust and follow the blueprint. But that takes time.
This is basically an example of "vertical integration" in corporate merger terms. The people who produce the content (the games) are merging with the distribution networks (ESPN, Fox, etc.). The B1G got the jump and did it first. But the others will follow, and the comparative advantage will subside.
Perhaps even more important is shifting populations. The ACC's population footprint is growing much faster than the B1G's population, and that will shift media value over time. The same can be said of the SEC relative to the B1G. This is a major reason why the B1G wants to expand southward. They realize that demography is destiny. These southern schools have more leverage than they realize.
You and I will never have any way of coming up with an "I told you so" moment for this because the time needed to answer the question is too long, and the chances of us still yacking on this message board at that time are nill.
But I highly doubt that in 15 years time, if you compare the B1G to the other major conferences around then, the B1G will still have the same media rights advantages it does now. The competition adapts and comes up with new ideas.
The problem is that over that same 15 years, the conferences are going to create one effed up situation after another - like WVU in the Big 12 or GT in the B1G - that make no sense for anything other than maximizing next year's media revenue.
Once those media rights advantages dissipate, we are going to be left with a bunch of schools in the wrong conferences. Even if they do get to this cherished 4x16 arrangement, it won't stay that way.