(02-20-2013 06:20 PM)x97 Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 12:06 PM)S11 Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 10:30 AM)curtis0620 Wrote:  For the Extra $300K per year.

1- Very few are saying the Big 12 will be able to take ACC teams without a defection first to the B1G or SEC.

2- It's much more than 300k.

a- Assuming a team can get ONLY 500k from tier 3 tv rights which is very low when you consider it's approximately the same amount of inventory per school that raycom pays the ACC 4mm per school for and 12% of that payout for rights that are further down in the Big 12 pecking order than Raycom is in the ACC pecking order.
(Raycom's ACC network broadcasts 13 fb, and exclusive rights to 35 MBB and shares 12 broadcasts with ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU)

Also considering the price per game for some of the smaller league tv deals it's also hard to go much lower than that for any school with a moderate to large fanbase.


So that's 500k additional at least to begin with.

b- The ACC's AVERAGE payout is Also let's assume each league gets a 3% annual increase to account for backloading in each deal to make it even.

I went in and looked at what football seasons each deal ran through.

Big 12 ran 2012-2024
ACC with ND, Pitt, UL (the 19.5 deal) would start in 2014 and run until 2026.


So using excel and a 3% growth rate for each here are the average payouts from 2014-2024 (the years in common beginning with the first year any defection would make it in for)

Big 12: 20.35 (two of the lighter years aren't dragging the average down)
ACC: 18.89 (two of the heaviest years take place after the Big 12 likely strikes a future deal which won't spike the average up)
Average difference: 1.46 Million.
Raw difference sum: 16 Million.


So we add the 500k minimum to the 1.46 million and it's just shy of 2 million before ANY contract adjustments other than merely enough to keep the per school payout the same.

Considering what the right teams would be able to do to increase the TV deal the difference could easily grow to 4-6 million from the 2mm starting point we see here. The Pac 12 got 1.2mm per school for a title game and the Big 12 with the right teams would likely eclipse that.

So while I don't think anything happens unless further defections occur I hope you can agree it isn't some mere 300k a year when you really take apples to apples.

Sammy, are you being dishonest again?

First, you are stating that the ACC TV deal will average $19.5 million per school from 2014-2026. You do realize that the current ACC TV deal went into effect on July 1, 2012? http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/05/10/2...on-tv.html

That deal (before Notre Dame came aboard) would have paid ACC teams an average of $17.1 million from 2012-2026 (actually July 1, 2027). National sources have said the ACC TV deal will now pay an average of $19.5 million per school with the Notre Dame addition. You are making the assumption that $19.5 million is the average from 2014-2026. That's a HUGE assumption. My interpretation is that current ACC teams will make an average of $19.5 million from now until 2026. That means the first couple years of the deal (before ND comes aboard) the schools will be paid on the old contract. The jump after ND comes aboard will then increase the average over the 14 years to $19.5 million. If that's the case the first two years are skewed far to the low side making the deal after ND joins even more valuable (schools will be making more than $19.5 million average from 2014-2026 to make up for the low amounts the first 2 years).

You are correct that the jump will occur after ND joins. You aren't necessarily correct in assuming the average is 2014-2026 instead of 2012-2026.

Secondly, why you keep ignoring travel budget increases and the ACC exit penalty?

If you can't see both sides there really isn't a reason to comment, now is there?

If I made a mistake, politely point it out. Don't accuse me of dishonesty when it clearly isn't warranted.

1- I assume the contract with ND kicks in for 2014 as that is when they join up. Why would it kick in earlier?

1b- 2012-2013 is ridiculous as the deal was struck this year and they wouldn't affect the value of things nor would Pitt or Syracuse until they actually join. I could possibly buy the 2013-14 season if ND is playing 5 ACC teams but not earlier than that.

1c- Even if I take your absurd 2012 start date you only knock 527k off the difference. If you take 2013-2026 to be the 19.5avg it only comes down by 262k or so. Either way the point is that at least 1mm more is a reasonable guess based on the same 3% growth rate and the timing involved.

2- Travel.

Nebraska's travel went up 1mm when they joined the Big Ten after leaving the Big 12 and specifically the B12 North which had 4 opponents they could bus to.

I saw an article on NU's cost breakdown that had some good info.
http://espn.go.com/colleges/texas/story/...eam-travel


It cost them around 1,500 to bus their volleyball team (and I would assume their MBB, WBB, and Baseball as well) to KSU. I also assume a similar cost to go to KU and ISU.

CU is a flight and so would be the 2 TX road games and 1 OK road game in a given year under the BB schedule format.

They then join the Big Ten where pretty much everyone not named Iowa is a flight. Using the quotes in the article they would get out at the cheapest for 28k for each of these up to 40k. You go from 4 flights and 4 buses to 7 flights and 1 bus and it's easy to see almost 100k in additional travel cost for the women's VB team alone. (3 new flights * 30k est)

Add a similar figure for MBB, WBB, and Baseball and you run up 400k of that 1mm pretty quick.

Football tends to be more expensive per flight. Boise in 2011 chartered flights from anywhere as low as 62k (CSU) up to 123k (Atlanta). Nebraska replacing 2 bus trip away games per year (KU/KSU/ISU/MU) with zero for that initial season (Iowa was at home) had to cost at least 100k.

Add that to the nonfb estimate above and you have 500k pretty quick off nothing more than lots of fewer bus trips in JUST those sports. No added hotel cost yet like the article implies was large and we haven't even addressed the other sports or conference tourneys they travel to.

Baylor will only bus teams if it's within a 5 hour drive. Assuming FSU operates with similar rules it would imply that GT is the only team they bus to. Clemson is 6 hours, Miami is 8 hours, and everyone else is more than that. So to expect them to have a marginal increase anywhere near Nebraska isn't very likely unless you think they are coming alone.

When that much of NU's entire increased budget is due to having to do more flights vs buses it's not reasonable to assume a school that might lose one opponent they can bus to (that they rarely play in football) would incur that range.

Perhaps I overlooked something but it doesn't appear to me that the cost would be as bad as NU.

TCU's cost went up when they left CUSA to join the MWC. They too left ONE bus trip behind (UH) for a league with none and ended up spending 500k more.

So travel cost will factor in, but it won't be 3 million unless they somehow come alone which nobody believes would happen.

3- I can see both sides. I can see travel cost, exit fees, alumni footprint, and other considerations likely make FSU resist a move unless something else happens. However I believe there is a financial advantage. It doesn't mean I am lying, it means we disagree.