Since it is basically the half-way point through the conference schedules, thoughts begin to turn toward NCAA bids. While still early and teams can either go on bad losing streaks or great winning streaks to affect their Dance status this is how I'm projecting it breaks down at the moment:

Big East - 8 bids - UConn, Nova, WVU, Pitt, G'Town, Marquette, Syracuse, Seton Hall.

Big 10 - 7 bids - MSU, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin

ACC - 6 bids - Duke, NC State, BC, UNC, Maryland, Miami

SEC - 5 bids - Florida, LSU, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama

Missouri Valley - 4 bids - Northern Iowa, Wichita State, Creighton, So. Illinois

B12 - 4 bids - Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado

Pac-10 - 3 bids - UCLA, Arizona, Washington

All of the rest of the conferences get only 1 team unless an upset were to occur in the C-USA, West Coast, or A-10 tournaments since Memphis, Gonzaga, and George Washington are in regardless of what happens in conference championships.

That totals 59 bids. Which means the tournament selection committee is going to have a difficult time choosing 3-4 additional at-large teams - assuming 2 or 3 upsets occur in conference championship games.

Usually these additional 3-4 will come from the major conferences and usually from the Top 2 RPI conferences which this year are clearly the Big 10 and the Big East. None of the 4 Big Ten teams have a realistic shot of being selected as an at-large, but 1 or 2 BE teams could depending upon how they finish the season. And they don't necessarily have to have a .500 record in conference to do so.

The Big East's best chance of squeezing a ninth team into the NCAAs is between Cincinnati and Louisville. The Cards would need to beat Cincinnati, USF, DePaul, and Marquette and then win one game in MSG to likely be the 9th team in from the Big East. The Bearcats need to beat Louisville and Providence, get one more win in addition to those two plus win one in MSG to be that 9th team.

For both to get in, the loser of tomorrow night's game needs to beat one of the power teams left remaining (Pitt, Nova, WVU for the Bearcats; UConn or WVU for the Cards).

Cheers,
Neil

You can make that 60 bids because barring another major injury UAB is projected in every bracket on the face of the earth to get in anywhere between a 7-11 seed.

Also, Alabama, Colorado and Arizona aren't locks to get in either Neil. I do agree with you that the MVC will get four teams in and possibly five if Missouri St wins the MVC Tourney.

As much as I would like to see UC in the tourney I think injuries have just taken too much of a toll with them. And UL has an hellacious stretch of games coming up on the road. I think the BE is locked in at 8 teams.

It will be interesting to see what shakes out and I understand you are only giving a scenario for a possible 9th team to get in.

If UC can get to 18 wins they'll have a chance, 19 wins would get them in. Beating Louisville and Providence at home are a must. If we can upset Syracuse or Pitt on the road, or Villanova or West Virginia at home it should get UC in.

I wouldn't count Syracuse and Marquette in just yet.

I wouldn't count out Cincinnati and Louisville just yet.

HiddenDragon Wrote:You can make that 60 bids because barring another major injury UAB is projected in every bracket on the face of the earth to get in anywhere between a 7-11 seed.

Also, Alabama, Colorado and Arizona aren't locks to get in either Neil. I do agree with you that the MVC will get four teams in and possibly five if Missouri St wins the MVC Tourney.

As much as I would like to see UC in the tourney I think injuries have just taken too much of a toll with them. And UL has an hellacious stretch of games coming up on the road. I think the BE is locked in at 8 teams.

It will be interesting to see what shakes out and I understand you are only giving a scenario for a possible 9th team to get in.

My post was looking ahead and trying to project what is most likely to happen - assuming no flameouts and no great runs. Where teams stand now is immaterial, otherwise Syracuse, Seton Hall, Miami, and Maryland wouldn't have made the list either.

I'm not projecting UAB in at this time based upon the fact that they only have one regular season game left that in which they can impress the committee to take them over other potential at-large teams - the upcoming game against Memphis at home. I don't think the Blazers win that game. If they do, yes, they are in - but right now I'm projecting they lose that game, so C-USA is a one-bid conference in my eyes at this time.

I think another thing that will hurt UAB's chances this year is their making it into last year's tourney unfairly - with 4 losses out of the Top 100 and zero, let me repeat that again, zero Top 50 wins. The argument for them was more on the coattails of what they had done in the NCAAs the year before and a C-USA rank of 9.

This year I just don't see those same factors coming into play with C-USA's conference ranking 15 and a non-impressive NCAA showing in 2005. The RPI currently at #44 will fall as they face 5 teams over 150 (4 over them over 200) and what will likely be no Top 50 wins when Old Dominion drops from their current #47 position out of the Top 50. A SOS in the 100s isn't going to help either.

Of course, a win over Memphis at home will change that . So good luck against the Tigers.

Cheers,
Neil

WacoBearcat Wrote:I wouldn't count Syracuse and Marquette in just yet.

I wouldn't count out Cincinnati and Louisville just yet.

As I indicated in my post, it is a projection of who is in based upon no flameouts and no great unexpected runs.

As a result, Marquette is a definite 'in' in my eyes since they would need to flameout not to get in at this point in time. They already have 6 wins in conference - not to mention wins over UConn and Seton Hall. I'm projecting them to beat Providence and either Pitt or G'Town at home and to win one other BE game at home. That would make them 9-7 in the BE.

Syracuse is trickier. But I'm projecting wins over St. John's and DePaul on the road and wins in at least 2 of the following home games - Cincy, Louisville, WVU, and Villanova. The Orange is a BE team that can survive at 8-8 in conference due to their Top 20 SOS.

And of course Cincinnati and Louisville aren't 'out' yet - I believe that was the whole point of the post. To show what they could do to get in - I just didn't want to project either of them in just yet, since I really have no idea which team will win tomorrow night.

Cheers,
Neil

I honestly think if they chose tomorrow, 2 Alabama teams would be in but UAB would be the higher seeded team. I wouldn't have even put Bama in until they upset LSU yesterday. Right now RPI wise UAB is 45 & Bama is 50.

UAB is hurt greatly by the fact that they'll end the year having played only 2, maybe 3, games against Top 50 opponents out of 26 total games. Their risk is that if they don't go at least 11-3 they likely don't get in. Right now they are winning but still slowly moving down or staying even in RPI due to scrub opponents so they quite likely can't afford more than 1 non-Memphis loss.

omnicarrier Wrote:I'm not projecting UAB in at this time based upon the fact that they only have one regular season game left that in which they can impress the committee to take them over other potential at-large teams - the upcoming game against Memphis at home. I don't think the Blazers win that game. If they do, yes, they are in - but right now I'm projecting they lose that game, so C-USA is a one-bid conference in my eyes at this time.

I think another thing that will hurt UAB's chances this year is their making it into last year's tourney unfairly - with 4 losses out of the Top 100 and zero, let me repeat that again, zero Top 50 wins. The argument for them was more on the coattails of what they had done in the NCAAs the year before and a C-USA rank of 9.

This year I just don't see those same factors coming into play with C-USA's conference ranking 15 and a non-impressive NCAA showing in 2005. The RPI currently at #44 will fall as they face 5 teams over 150 (4 over them over 200) and what will likely be no Top 50 wins when Old Dominion drops from their current #47 position out of the Top 50. A SOS in the 100s isn't going to help either.

Of course, a win over Memphis at home will change that . So good luck against the Tigers.

Cheers,
Neil

We don't have to beat Memphis to get in Neil. I'm actually shocked that you're not totally presenting the correct facts. Fortunately for UAB your opinion and bias doesn't count but lets discuss them anyway.

UAB is 1-1 vs the Top 50. Loss to Memphis and a victory over ODU. We're 5-4 vs the Top 100 RPI. When ODU do drop out of the Top 50 then U can count it but until then it still counts.

And we made into the tourney unfairly in 2005? I'm not going to even ask you to justify that comment. Life is unfair sometimes so you just have to deal with it. If anything our performance in the tournament the last two years work in UAB favor of getting in this time around. Gotta love that reverse thinking.

A win over Memphis would definitely lock up a bid and understand even a loss to Memphis would improve our RPI. UAB just needs to keep winning and everything will take care of itself. Also just to let you know, UTEP RPI is 111. And so far our RPI has been anywhere between 37 and 47 since conference play started. Just to let you know.

Now don't get me wrong, I know what you want to happen that will best benefit the BE and you present valid points. And UAB is walking a thin line but seems to be pulling the circus act off so far. But I look forward to your reasoning for UAB making the Dance yet once again Neil.

So good luck in getting that 9th BE team in the Dance.

HD

P.S. Check out these websites. FYI!
http://bracketproject.atspace.com/comparison.htm
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Rich Chvotkin, the voice of the Hoyas, mentioned in the post-game show today that both Marquette and Syracuse are more likely on the bubble and Cincy and Louisville will be heading for the NIT, and we would get six or seven teams mainly because the mid-majors like the MVC will get 4, A-10 will get 2, C-USA (I know you guys are not mid-majors like the others so don't jump on me) will get 3, and there could be upsets in confernece tournaments.

Just curious what 2 A-10 teams get in? The only way that happens is if GW loses in the A-10 tourney. Charlotte won't get enough wins and Xavier is falling fast and will be lucky to make the NIT.

SilverSpring_Hoya Wrote:Rich Chvotkin, the voice of the Hoyas, mentioned in the post-game show today that both Marquette and Syracuse are more likely on the bubble and Cincy and Louisville will be heading for the NIT, and we would get six or seven teams mainly because the mid-majors like the MVC will get 4, A-10 will get 2, C-USA (I know you guys are not mid-majors like the others so don't jump on me) will get 3, and there could be upsets in confernece tournaments.

The only way CUSA gets three teams is if someone other than Memphis or UAB wins the CUSA Tourney. If Houston beats Memphis I think that would put them in good shape but that is a big if since the game is at Memphis. Xaxier losing to St. Louis today makes the A-10 a bid league again. I think Syracuse and Marquette is in period and the BE is definitely an 8-bid conference.

I believe Rich was using an example by saying conferences like C-USA and etc... would get more than one or two teams in.... not saying it will or will not happen, but as of right now, here is a bid list from each conference:

WAC - Nevada
West Coast - Gonzaga
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky, On the Bubble - South Alabama
SWAC - Grambling State
Southland - Northwestern State
Southern - Georgia Southern
SEC - Tenn, Florida, LSU, Arkansas, On the Bubble - Alabama, Kentucky
Patriot - Bucknell
PAC-10 - UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Washington, On the Bubble - Arizona, USC
Ohio Valley - Murry State
Northeast - FDU
Mountain West - San Diego State, On the Bubble - Air Force, UNLV, BYU
Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa, Wichita State, Creighton, Southern Ill., On the Bubble - Missouri State, Bradley
Mid-Eastern - Delaware State
Mid-Continent - IUPUI
Mid-American - Kent State, On the Bubble - Arkon, Ohio, Miami OH
Metro Atlantic Athletic - Iona, On the Bubble - Manhattan
Ivy League - Penn
Indy - None
Horizon League - Wis. Milwaukee
Conference USA - Memphis, UAB, On the Bubble - Houston, UTEP
Colonial Athletic - George Mason, On the Bubble - Hofstra
Big West - UC Irvine, On the Bubble - Pacific
Big 12 - Texas, Colorado, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, On the Bubble - Iowa State
Big Ten - Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin
Big South - Birmingham So., On the Bubble - Winthrop
Big Sky - Northern Arizona
Big East - West Virginia, Villanova, UConn, Pitt, Georgetown, Seton Hall, On the Bubble - Marquette, Syracuse
Atlantic 10 - George Washington, On the Bubble - Saint Louis, Charlotte, Xavier
Atlantic Sun - Lipscomb
Atlantic Coast - Duke, NC State, Miami FL, Boston College, North Carolina, On the Bubble - Virginia, Maryland, Florida State
America East - Albany

SilverSpring_Hoya Wrote:I believe Rich was using an example by saying conferences like C-USA and etc... would get more than one or two teams in.... not saying it will or will not happen, but as of right now, here is a bid list from each conference:

WAC - Nevada
West Coast - Gonzaga
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky, On the Bubble - South Alabama
SWAC - Grambling State
Southland - Northwestern State
Southern - Georgia Southern
SEC - Tenn, Florida, LSU, Arkansas, On the Bubble - Alabama, Kentucky
Patriot - Bucknell
PAC-10 - UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Washington, On the Bubble - Arizona, USC
Ohio Valley - Murry State
Northeast - FDU
Mountain West - San Diego State, On the Bubble - Air Force, UNLV, BYU
Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa, Wichita State, Creighton, Southern Ill., On the Bubble - Missouri State, Bradley
Mid-Eastern - Delaware State
Mid-Continent - IUPUI
Mid-American - Kent State, On the Bubble - Arkon, Ohio, Miami OH
Metro Atlantic Athletic - Iona, On the Bubble - Manhattan
Ivy League - Penn
Indy - None
Horizon League - Wis. Milwaukee
Conference USA - Memphis, UAB, On the Bubble - Houston, UTEP
Colonial Athletic - George Mason, On the Bubble - Hofstra
Big West - UC Irvine, On the Bubble - Pacific
Big 12 - Texas, Colorado, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, On the Bubble - Iowa State
Big Ten - Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin
Big South - Birmingham So., On the Bubble - Winthrop
Big Sky - Northern Arizona
Big East - West Virginia, Villanova, UConn, Pitt, Georgetown, Seton Hall, On the Bubble - Marquette, Syracuse
Atlantic 10 - George Washington, On the Bubble - Saint Louis, Charlotte, Xavier
Atlantic Sun - Lipscomb
Atlantic Coast - Duke, NC State, Miami FL, Boston College, North Carolina, On the Bubble - Virginia, Maryland, Florida State
America East - Albany

I've got some strong disagreements with some of these teams! Teams such as South Alabama, Bradley, UTEP, Pacific, St Louis, etc, have absolutely no shot at an at-large bid. Well, maybe a 1% chance. Those schools would literally need to win EVERY game left and then lose in their conference tournament title game to get an at-large bid.

Some others on the list are pretty questionable but I didn't bother to list them. Chances are slim for my UofL Cards to get in, but if we're listing teams like UTEP with a 111 RPI, we might as well list a Card team with a 54 RPI that has plenty of top win opportunities left.

Nothing personal, but teams not in a Big 6 league that are sub 80 RPI in February aren't making the dance without winning out basically.

I think most MU fans would say that 2 more wins would put them on the bubble, three more wins would make them a lock. An RPI in the 20s, with all of their remaining games against top 100 teams, including games against Pitt and Georgetown should ensure that 9-7 is a lock. MU has a tough schedule the rest of the way, and I am not sure that they will get to 9-7, but there is a chance. To even suggest before the season that a team that started 3 freshmen and a soph for most of the year, plus two other sophs that play major roles could be in this position, playing for an NCAA bid, would have been a pipe dream.

Pretty good analysis Neil, but I would agree that UAB looks good for a 2nd CUSA bid.

One league that you perhaps are overlooking is the CAA. They are now ahead of the A-10 in the RPI, and they have 4 or 5 very strong teams. It would not surprise me at all to see a Wilmington or Geoge Mason sneak in as an at-large.

I also wouldn't put Miami, FL on this list just yet.

HiddenDragon Wrote:

SilverSpring_Hoya Wrote:Rich Chvotkin, the voice of the Hoyas, mentioned in the post-game show today that both Marquette and Syracuse are more likely on the bubble and Cincy and Louisville will be heading for the NIT, and we would get six or seven teams mainly because the mid-majors like the MVC will get 4, A-10 will get 2, C-USA (I know you guys are not mid-majors like the others so don't jump on me) will get 3, and there could be upsets in confernece tournaments.

The only way CUSA gets three teams is if someone other than Memphis or UAB wins the CUSA Tourney. If Houston beats Memphis I think that would put them in good shape but that is a big if since the game is at Memphis. Xaxier losing to St. Louis today makes the A-10 a bid league again. I think Syracuse and Marquette is in period and the BE is definitely an 8-bid conference.

Im starting to really like HD.

I really wouldn't be suprised if the big east gets 9 or 10 in. I think a suprise team like WVU last year will end up making some noise in the Big East tourny and more than likely its going to be a middle of the road team. Alot can happen from now until big east tourny time.

MU88 Wrote:I think most MU fans would say that 2 more wins would put them on the bubble, three more wins would make them a lock. An RPI in the 20s, with all of their remaining games against top 100 teams, including games against Pitt and Georgetown should ensure that 9-7 is a lock. MU has a tough schedule the rest of the way, and I am not sure that they will get to 9-7, but there is a chance. To even suggest before the season that a team that started 3 freshmen and a soph for most of the year, plus two other sophs that play major roles could be in this position, playing for an NCAA bid, would have been a pipe dream.

I still think the Marquette gets in though, I think they will win some games, I watched Marquette against Nova last weekend and was extremely impressed. The only thing that hurt Marquette in that game was in experience down the stretch, those guards are going to be tough the next couple of years. I think Marquette is on the bubble now but you guys should get in.

kardphan Wrote:

MU88 Wrote:I think most MU fans would say that 2 more wins would put them on the bubble, three more wins would make them a lock. An RPI in the 20s, with all of their remaining games against top 100 teams, including games against Pitt and Georgetown should ensure that 9-7 is a lock. MU has a tough schedule the rest of the way, and I am not sure that they will get to 9-7, but there is a chance. To even suggest before the season that a team that started 3 freshmen and a soph for most of the year, plus two other sophs that play major roles could be in this position, playing for an NCAA bid, would have been a pipe dream.

I still think the Marquette gets in though, I think they will win some games, I watched Marquette against Nova last weekend and was extremely impressed. The only thing that hurt Marquette in that game was in experience down the stretch, those guards are going to be tough the next couple of years. I think Marquette is on the bubble now but you guys should get in.

Maybe. The team is very young and who knows how they are going to react to the pressure during the last month of the season. They played pretty good and VU. Not their best effort of the season, but pretty good. Wish we could have had the UC game back. Blew a 12 point second half lead at home. Went stone cold and the freshmen quit executing the game plan. Oh well. I will feel much better if somehow MU can get past Rutgers on Saturday. It is almost a must win game.

MU88 Wrote:

kardphan Wrote:

MU88 Wrote:I think most MU fans would say that 2 more wins would put them on the bubble, three more wins would make them a lock. An RPI in the 20s, with all of their remaining games against top 100 teams, including games against Pitt and Georgetown should ensure that 9-7 is a lock. MU has a tough schedule the rest of the way, and I am not sure that they will get to 9-7, but there is a chance. To even suggest before the season that a team that started 3 freshmen and a soph for most of the year, plus two other sophs that play major roles could be in this position, playing for an NCAA bid, would have been a pipe dream.

I still think the Marquette gets in though, I think they will win some games, I watched Marquette against Nova last weekend and was extremely impressed. The only thing that hurt Marquette in that game was in experience down the stretch, those guards are going to be tough the next couple of years. I think Marquette is on the bubble now but you guys should get in.

Maybe. The team is very young and who knows how they are going to react to the pressure during the last month of the season. They played pretty good and VU. Not their best effort of the season, but pretty good. Wish we could have had the UC game back. Blew a 12 point second half lead at home. Went stone cold and the freshmen quit executing the game plan. Oh well. I will feel much better if somehow MU can get past Rutgers on Saturday. It is almost a must win game.

We had a tough day at Rutgers, we fell behind 15 in a hostile environment and we shot the ball horrible. If you guys can jump on them quick and take the crowd out you should be fine. I hope you guys can find a answer for Douby because that guy can score in bunches. He is in the type that can drop 20 on your in a span of 5 mins. The same thing that is hurting Marquette is the same thing that is killing us, we are in the game with about 3 mins left and then our experience kicks in. Going against a team like Nova or UCONN or even WVU you can't afford to make mental mistakes when you are in the game.