Here's a link to a great article about college football and network TV. It discusses the many problems and risks for both sides.

Interestingly, it also talks about something ArkStFan has written about several times over the year - how DVRs have cut the ad revenue of scripted TV and the one place where ads still work are live sports. It seems the Wall Street Journal agrees with him! Nice to find validation from a national news source!

Here's the link. It is free to non-subscribers for a day or so.

Ala carte cable.
New advertising model.
New delivery model.

Any of those can wipe out the TV wealth.

It won't hurt the big money schools who get most of their revenue from tickets, donations and sponsorships but the bottom feeders of the big conferences could get wiped out.

(12-12-2012 10:54 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  Ala carte cable.
New advertising model.
New delivery model.

Any of those can wipe out the TV wealth.

It won't hurt the big money schools who get most of their revenue from tickets, donations and sponsorships but the bottom feeders of the big conferences could get wiped out.

Arkstfan I agree with you on a lot, but I think you are wrong here.

Unless people just stop caring about the "live" nature of sports, Sports is always going to have a huge entertainment value.

People will pay to watch the games live even if it's streamed to their computer, or their phone, or their car. Some content provider, maybe not the current cable companies, is going to see those captured eyeballs, will be able to market them to advertisers, and then be able to pull the sports rights with a ton of money.

Cable is getting creamed because what they sell can be easily time shifted or downloaded. Thing is, no one wants to DVR sports or even wait until the game is over and then torrent it.

They want to see it right then and there. If that changes, then yes, the model is in trouble, but until it does there will be a boatload of money to make.

Sports is different than the latest Batman movie, or Boardwallk Empire episode, or new Taylor Swift CD because its not about seeing sports, its about seeing sports right as it happens.

I work in adsales for a very large cable company. Our revenue increased this year and is budgeted to go up again next year. I don't see ad revenue going anywhere in the foreseeable future. The delivery method from TV to digital, sure. But the ads will still be there. There is just to much money at stake.

Advertising during sporting events brings in the most money by far for us.

Sports brings big money because a show seen by 10 million people means very close to 10 million saw the commercials. A program like Modern Family seen by 18 million means maybe 9 million saw the commercials.

That draws a premium but it does a poor job of reaching females along with othe demographic groups. A delivery method that is more efficient reaching them changes the game and with it changes the need to pay a premium for sports.

I think you guys are totally missing my point.

Hell yeah there is demand for sports but sports suck at reaching even 50% of the market. You can juggle your money around a number of sports to increase reach but if you only advertise on college football you miss 80% of the market from Labor Day to basically New Years Day and 100% from New Year's Day to Labor Day.

Now if the content (rather than ad) delivery method changes, there is still huge money out there but it becomes subscriber based. Then the question becomes if you can basically identify the subscriber and their wants, why does Alabama who would likely command 1/6th or so of SEC subscriber revenue continue to accept 1/14th of the subscriber revenue and give 1/14th to Vandy? Simple. They won't.

The conference as an economic entity is very new on the spectrum. The SEC signed its first deal for regular season games independent of the NCAA and then the later CFA to start games on CBS in 1996 (Big East signed on with CBS as well).

This is a 16 year old model based on the economics and technologies of the day. From 1933 to 1995 the SEC's primary role was keep stats, assist with scheduling, assign officials, announce awards, and work together on NCAA regulations. Even if you back it up to the SEC title game, the conference as the economic engine is a 20 year old model.

There is always going to be some really big money in the game, but that doesn't mean its going to be shared with Washington State and Vandy the way it is today.