I enjoy talking sunbelt football, as you can and I'd like to hear some of your thoughts on these issues.

A few things to consider: The big three coaching hires were great hires. But is McCarney as good as Freeze (now malzhan) and Hudspeth in the long run? Keep in mind North Texas had more ground to cover after the Dodge Disaster than Louisiana or Arkansas State did. Will UNT be a winning record team this season?

Will the VHT's (very highly touted) recruits Louisiana will put in play be ready by the time they have to play the perceived big dogs in the sunbelt hunt?

Will Arkansas State's talent and coaching be enough to overcome significant losses on defense? Will they able to beat through a perceived tougher sunbelt schedule? Will they again be the number one team in the country in terms of team health/injuries?

What about Troy? Has the league passed them by? Will bringing back 97% of the offense as opposed to 34% from the year before, the addition of two VHT receivers from Troy's 2010 team, and an improved healthier offensive line bring Troy's offense back to life? What about the defense, will the 11 JUCO players make a difference, or will they continue to rank within the bottom 100 of college football in defense?

Will the losses of T.Y. Hilton, Bobby Rainey, and Lance Dunbar stiffle the hopes of three sunbelt teams looking at a title? How about MTSU? They seem to be the Canada of the sunbelt: No one's paying them any mind. They have a lot of talent, and a lot of signs pointing up, as well as THREE cupcake games to start the season? Will they be this years most improved team? Will ULM fall short of its dark horse hopes again? Will they stun Auburn?

Lets look at FAU and USA. These teams could do better than expected. But will FAU be able to overhaul everything in time, and is South gonna give the sunbelt an unexpected slaparound? Mayhaps.

I look forward to hearing some of your replys.

(07-02-2012 06:11 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  I enjoy talking sunbelt football, as you can and I'd like to hear some of your thoughts on these issues.

A few things to consider: The big three coaching hires were great hires. But is McCarney as good as Freeze (now malzhan) and Hudspeth in the long run? Keep in mind North Texas had more ground to cover after the Dodge Disaster than Louisiana or Arkansas State did. Will UNT be a winning record team this season?

All fair questions to ask.

Will the VHT's (very highly touted) recruits Louisiana will put in play be ready by the time they have to play the perceived big dogs in the sunbelt hunt?

Fair question to ask, can only be answered on the football field.

Will Arkansas State's talent and coaching be enough to overcome significant losses on defense? Will they able to beat through a perceived tougher sunbelt schedule? Will they again be the number one team in the country in terms of team health/injuries?

Again, fair questions to ask. How many football games has Malzahn won on the football field at any level in college football? The answer is none. This can only be answered on the football field as well, too many people have forgotten that fact.

What about Troy? Has the league passed them by? Will bringing back 97% of the offense as opposed to 34% from the year before, the addition of two VHT receivers from Troy's 2010 team, and an improved healthier offensive line bring Troy's offense back to life? What about the defense, will the 11 JUCO players make a difference, or will they continue to rank within the bottom 100 of college football in defense?

A large number of upper classmen return, Troy should be much improved. The question is how much?

Will the losses of T.Y. Hilton, Bobby Rainey, and Lance Dunbar stiffle the hopes of three sunbelt teams looking at a title? How about MTSU? They seem to be the Canada of the sunbelt: No one's paying them any mind. They have a lot of talent, and a lot of signs pointing up, as well as THREE cupcake games to start the season? Will they be this years most improved team? Will ULM fall short of its dark horse hopes again? Will they stun Auburn?

I don't buy ULM as a dark horse this season at all. Its not because they lack talent, but because that have a very young roster behind the starters and another tough out of conference schedule. Those two facts usually mean another season of close losses in the fourth quarter. That doesn't mean they cannot play spoilers in the conference. They can beat any SBC program in Monroe.

Lets look at FAU and USA. These teams could do better than expected. But will FAU be able to overhaul everything in time, and is South gonna give the sunbelt an unexpected slaparound? Mayhaps.

Will be a long season for both programs, improvement will come at a cost this season.

I look forward to hearing some of your replys.

Should be an interesting year.
Would hate to be Arkansas State's coach if things do not go well. Sounds like they have been getting some good players.
Have to believe Troy will be back.
Sounds like a year when several teams could surprise.

(07-02-2012 06:11 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  I enjoy talking sunbelt football, as you can and I'd like to hear some of your thoughts on these issues.

A few things to consider: The big three coaching hires were great hires. But is McCarney as good as Freeze (now malzhan) and Hudspeth in the long run? Keep in mind North Texas had more ground to cover after the Dodge Disaster than Louisiana or Arkansas State did. Will UNT be a winning record team this season?

Will the VHT's (very highly touted) recruits Louisiana will put in play be ready by the time they have to play the perceived big dogs in the sunbelt hunt?

Will Arkansas State's talent and coaching be enough to overcome significant losses on defense? Will they able to beat through a perceived tougher sunbelt schedule? Will they again be the number one team in the country in terms of team health/injuries?

What about Troy? Has the league passed them by? Will bringing back 97% of the offense as opposed to 34% from the year before, the addition of two VHT receivers from Troy's 2010 team, and an improved healthier offensive line bring Troy's offense back to life? What about the defense, will the 11 JUCO players make a difference, or will they continue to rank within the bottom 100 of college football in defense?

Will the losses of T.Y. Hilton, Bobby Rainey, and Lance Dunbar stiffle the hopes of three sunbelt teams looking at a title? How about MTSU? They seem to be the Canada of the sunbelt: No one's paying them any mind. They have a lot of talent, and a lot of signs pointing up, as well as THREE cupcake games to start the season? Will they be this years most improved team? Will ULM fall short of its dark horse hopes again? Will they stun Auburn?

Lets look at FAU and USA. These teams could do better than expected. But will FAU be able to overhaul everything in time, and is South gonna give the sunbelt an unexpected slaparound? Mayhaps.

I look forward to hearing some of your replys.

Said it at the time, said it many times after. Arkansas State, Louisiana and North Texas all hired who they needed to hire after the 2010 season. UNT improved two games overall and one game in the Sun Belt. Louisiana improved 6 games overall and three games in the Sun Belt. Arkansas State improved 6 games overall and four games in the Sun Belt.

Mac should have a good 8-10 years left in him. The only concern I'd have at this point would be the off-season stroke. By all accounts he has fully recovered and his quote about his required treatment was perfect. That said, I really doubt there will be any kid they recruit that won't be handed copies of articles about the incident. I'm sure the laminating machines at SMU, Houston, UTEP, UTSA, TXSt have all been busy. That would be my biggest worry.

That said, I think UNT should be 6-6 without catching any breaks. Most likely a 7 win team, might hit 8 if things fall together (basically what I said about ASU last year). They get the Cajuns and Red Wolves at home, skip FIU, host Troy. It's not unreasonable to think their season closer at WKU could have bowl or even league championship implications.

Louisiana's recruits. They may not be a big factor in week 2 at Troy, but week 5 coming off an open date, playing FIU at home in their 4th game of the season will be where we see how ready they are.

Conventional wisdom says you don't lose your most dominating player and then win big. Wiping the dust off the old record book Arkansas State lost Bill Bergey (first defensive player to sign a million dollar contract in the NFL) after the 1969 season. In 1970 ASU won the College Division I national title. 1997 Peyton Manning leads Tennessee to an 11-2 record and heads to the NFL. 1998 Tennessee goes 13-0 and becomes national champs.

MTSU should be better but who knows how much better? Last year they started 0-3 (@Purdue, Georgia Tech, @Troy). This year they have a good shot at 3-0 (McNeese, FAU, @Memphis). Get that 3-0 start and they could be dangerous and they skip Louisiana in the schedule.

Arkansas State signed six jucos on the defensive side of the ball. While ASU lost 8 starters, the previous regime rotated heavily so there is still a good bit of experience left. If the jucos merge in, the ASU defense may end up being pretty good.

Going into last year, no one was going to be terribly surprised if FAU started 0-5 and 4-8 looked optmistic (@Florida, @Michigan State, @Auburn, @Louisiana, @North Texas). The season didn't depart from script until they hosted WKU. This year they open with Wagner but unless they steal one at MTSU 3-9 looks like the best case.

USA, I just don't have a feel for their situation. For airfare and a gift card to Wentzel's I'll be happy to investigate in person.

(07-02-2012 06:11 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  I enjoy talking sunbelt football, as you can and I'd like to hear some of your thoughts on these issues.

A few things to consider: The big three coaching hires were great hires. But is McCarney as good as Freeze (now malzhan) and Hudspeth in the long run? Keep in mind North Texas had more ground to cover after the Dodge Disaster than Louisiana or Arkansas State did. Will UNT be a winning record team this season?

Will the VHT's (very highly touted) recruits Louisiana will put in play be ready by the time they have to play the perceived big dogs in the sunbelt hunt?

Will Arkansas State's talent and coaching be enough to overcome significant losses on defense? Will they able to beat through a perceived tougher sunbelt schedule? Will they again be the number one team in the country in terms of team health/injuries?

What about Troy? Has the league passed them by? Will bringing back 97% of the offense as opposed to 34% from the year before, the addition of two VHT receivers from Troy's 2010 team, and an improved healthier offensive line bring Troy's offense back to life? What about the defense, will the 11 JUCO players make a difference, or will they continue to rank within the bottom 100 of college football in defense?

Will the losses of T.Y. Hilton, Bobby Rainey, and Lance Dunbar stiffle the hopes of three sunbelt teams looking at a title? How about MTSU? They seem to be the Canada of the sunbelt: No one's paying them any mind. They have a lot of talent, and a lot of signs pointing up, as well as THREE cupcake games to start the season? Will they be this years most improved team? Will ULM fall short of its dark horse hopes again? Will they stun Auburn?

Lets look at FAU and USA. These teams could do better than expected. But will FAU be able to overhaul everything in time, and is South gonna give the sunbelt an unexpected slaparound? Mayhaps.

I look forward to hearing some of your replys.

I'm finally getting to respond to this post, I've been a little busy the past few days. I love the fact that you're breaking it down the way Phil Steele has, I've bought his preseason publication the last 4 seasons, and LOVE the way he breaks it down. With that said, the 2 things that I got from it that I'm interested in looking at is the loss of so many starters for stAte, and the fact they benefited from only 2 starters loss to injury (that is a ridiculous number), while on the flip side, a typically good Troy team returned few players last year and dipped badly and he has them projected for a big rebound. By his net close win/loss section, my cajuns would be in for a fall, but the question is by how much, we do return basically all of our offense, and we went through a transition period with the new coach last year, so could we be one of the few who bucks the odds in that catagory.

I also agree with you that its very difficult to replicate success while losing the most important player on your team. UL lost Green, but did play a good amount of games without him last year and were actually pretty successful in those games. Still, replacing Dunbar, Rainey and Hilton are gonna be hard. Rainey is by far the most difficult player to replace, he was the Hiltoppers offense, he controlled the clock, and even opened the passing game by forcing teams to put 8 guys in the box. I'm not sure what UNT has returning as far as a run game, and I still havent seen anything that makes me think their passing game can shoulder the load. FIU does have a good defense to lean on, but they were kind of hit or miss down the stretch last season.

(07-04-2012 02:34 AM)Tuffguy21 Wrote:  

(07-02-2012 06:11 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  I enjoy talking sunbelt football, as you can and I'd like to hear some of your thoughts on these issues.

A few things to consider: The big three coaching hires were great hires. But is McCarney as good as Freeze (now malzhan) and Hudspeth in the long run? Keep in mind North Texas had more ground to cover after the Dodge Disaster than Louisiana or Arkansas State did. Will UNT be a winning record team this season?

Will the VHT's (very highly touted) recruits Louisiana will put in play be ready by the time they have to play the perceived big dogs in the sunbelt hunt?

Will Arkansas State's talent and coaching be enough to overcome significant losses on defense? Will they able to beat through a perceived tougher sunbelt schedule? Will they again be the number one team in the country in terms of team health/injuries?

What about Troy? Has the league passed them by? Will bringing back 97% of the offense as opposed to 34% from the year before, the addition of two VHT receivers from Troy's 2010 team, and an improved healthier offensive line bring Troy's offense back to life? What about the defense, will the 11 JUCO players make a difference, or will they continue to rank within the bottom 100 of college football in defense?

Will the losses of T.Y. Hilton, Bobby Rainey, and Lance Dunbar stiffle the hopes of three sunbelt teams looking at a title? How about MTSU? They seem to be the Canada of the sunbelt: No one's paying them any mind. They have a lot of talent, and a lot of signs pointing up, as well as THREE cupcake games to start the season? Will they be this years most improved team? Will ULM fall short of its dark horse hopes again? Will they stun Auburn?

Lets look at FAU and USA. These teams could do better than expected. But will FAU be able to overhaul everything in time, and is South gonna give the sunbelt an unexpected slaparound? Mayhaps.

I look forward to hearing some of your replys.

By his net close win/loss section, my cajuns would be in for a fall, but the question is by how much, we do return basically all of our offense, and we went through a transition period with the new coach last year, so could we be one of the few who bucks the odds in that catagory.

FIU does have a good defense to lean on, but they were kind of hit or miss down the stretch last season.

Another distinction between Arkansas State and Louisiana which has been discussed before is the schedules. Last year, Arkansas State had a majority of the good teams at home, this year they're away games and Arkansas State has to prove they've bucked the trend of playing bad on the road. On the flip side, Louisiana has a majority of the good teams at home as opposed to playing them on the road, this could be a big advantage and may have been factored into Phil Steele's #3 (UL) and #5 (ASU) rankings.

T.Y. Hilton was also responsible for great field position as well. People are overlooking that. It becomes much harder to score from several more yards out. FIU ranked 12th in the country in kickoff returns, with T.Y. being #8 at the PR position. Though, on closer look, FIU was still #1 in america in punt returns without having a single player in the top 50 which leads me to believe this was punt return by committee and still very very dangerous. Yikes. I still think they are the team to beat in the sunbelt with their defense. It's nasty. FIU should have the #1 special teams and the #1 defense in the sunbelt. They have very few factors other than the loss of T.Y. that would have them going down, so this is my pick to win the sunbelt.