(06-20-2012 10:07 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(06-20-2012 09:55 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  

(06-20-2012 08:50 PM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote:  at UAB WIN
vs Louisiana-Lafayette
vs Mississippi State
at North Texas WIN
at South Alabama WIN
vs Western Kentucky WIN
vs FIU WIN
at Florida Atlantic WIN
at Tennessee
vs Navy
vs Arkansas State (Homecoming) WIN
at Middle Tennessee WIN

And im not set on that. I think we will either Beat NAVY or MISSISSIPPI STATE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't think Troy can beat FIU, WKU, or ASU. As for UNT, there is no way I see Troy coming down to Denton and beating the Mean Green at Apogee. My math says Troy finishes 4-8.

What's your reasoning behind that? Long standing tradition at apogee?

UNT beat Troy last season on the road, in McCarney's first season with the Mean Green. We lost some starters from last season's team, but only the loss of Dunbar will really hurt. Our offensive line was very young last season, and played fairly well. This season they should be a real strength for UNT. Our receiving corps will be more experienced and better. Thompson will have an entire season as a starter under his belt. On defense, we will be faster and more athletic. UNT had alot of underclassmen starting last season. We will be young and lack experience in the defensive backfield, but much more athletic. Last season our pass defense was terrible, so I doubt we could do any worse this season. Most importantly, our team will be in its second year under coach Mac. We will be playing with more players recruited to fit into our system, and it will be a home game.

(06-20-2012 10:07 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(06-20-2012 09:55 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  

(06-20-2012 08:50 PM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote:  at UAB WIN
vs Louisiana-Lafayette
vs Mississippi State
at North Texas WIN
at South Alabama WIN
vs Western Kentucky WIN
vs FIU WIN
at Florida Atlantic WIN
at Tennessee
vs Navy
vs Arkansas State (Homecoming) WIN
at Middle Tennessee WIN

And im not set on that. I think we will either Beat NAVY or MISSISSIPPI STATE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't think Troy can beat FIU, WKU, or ASU. As for UNT, there is no way I see Troy coming down to Denton and beating the Mean Green at Apogee. My math says Troy finishes 4-8.

What's your reasoning behind that? Long standing tradition at apogee?

Troy will be NT first loss at Apogee...Just like when we sent NT to a bowl with a 5-7 record.

(06-20-2012 10:07 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(06-20-2012 09:55 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  

(06-20-2012 08:50 PM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote:  at UAB WIN
vs Louisiana-Lafayette
vs Mississippi State
at North Texas WIN
at South Alabama WIN
vs Western Kentucky WIN
vs FIU WIN
at Florida Atlantic WIN
at Tennessee
vs Navy
vs Arkansas State (Homecoming) WIN
at Middle Tennessee WIN

And im not set on that. I think we will either Beat NAVY or MISSISSIPPI STATE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't think Troy can beat FIU, WKU, or ASU. As for UNT, there is no way I see Troy coming down to Denton and beating the Mean Green at Apogee. My math says Troy finishes 4-8.

What's your reasoning behind that? Long standing tradition at apogee?

Nope, the Mean Green will just be the better team that day. Troy just ain't what she use to be & will have a difficult time breaking even season in 2012.

(06-20-2012 10:30 PM)MG61 Wrote:  

(06-20-2012 10:07 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(06-20-2012 09:55 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  

(06-20-2012 08:50 PM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote:  at UAB WIN
vs Louisiana-Lafayette
vs Mississippi State
at North Texas WIN
at South Alabama WIN
vs Western Kentucky WIN
vs FIU WIN
at Florida Atlantic WIN
at Tennessee
vs Navy
vs Arkansas State (Homecoming) WIN
at Middle Tennessee WIN

And im not set on that. I think we will either Beat NAVY or MISSISSIPPI STATE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't think Troy can beat FIU, WKU, or ASU. As for UNT, there is no way I see Troy coming down to Denton and beating the Mean Green at Apogee. My math says Troy finishes 4-8.

What's your reasoning behind that? Long standing tradition at apogee?

Nope, the Mean Green will just be the better team that day. Troy just ain't what she use to be & will have a difficult time breaking even season in 2012.

REALLY? ONE season and now Troy isnt what she use to be? Lord. Your in for a rude awakening dude.

(06-20-2012 10:33 PM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote:  

(06-20-2012 10:30 PM)MG61 Wrote:  

(06-20-2012 10:07 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(06-20-2012 09:55 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  

(06-20-2012 08:50 PM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote:  at UAB WIN
vs Louisiana-Lafayette
vs Mississippi State
at North Texas WIN
at South Alabama WIN
vs Western Kentucky WIN
vs FIU WIN
at Florida Atlantic WIN
at Tennessee
vs Navy
vs Arkansas State (Homecoming) WIN
at Middle Tennessee WIN

And im not set on that. I think we will either Beat NAVY or MISSISSIPPI STATE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't think Troy can beat FIU, WKU, or ASU. As for UNT, there is no way I see Troy coming down to Denton and beating the Mean Green at Apogee. My math says Troy finishes 4-8.

What's your reasoning behind that? Long standing tradition at apogee?

Nope, the Mean Green will just be the better team that day. Troy just ain't what she use to be & will have a difficult time breaking even season in 2012.

REALLY? ONE season and now Troy isnt what she use to be? Lord. Your in for a rude awakening dude.

It isn't that Troy isn't what it used to be. It is that what Troy used to be isn't good enough to dominate today's Sun Belt.

This conference has gotten much tougher.

(06-20-2012 10:33 PM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote:  

(06-20-2012 10:30 PM)MG61 Wrote:  

(06-20-2012 10:07 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(06-20-2012 09:55 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  

(06-20-2012 08:50 PM)Atlanta Trojan Wrote:  at UAB WIN
vs Louisiana-Lafayette
vs Mississippi State
at North Texas WIN
at South Alabama WIN
vs Western Kentucky WIN
vs FIU WIN
at Florida Atlantic WIN
at Tennessee
vs Navy
vs Arkansas State (Homecoming) WIN
at Middle Tennessee WIN

And im not set on that. I think we will either Beat NAVY or MISSISSIPPI STATE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't think Troy can beat FIU, WKU, or ASU. As for UNT, there is no way I see Troy coming down to Denton and beating the Mean Green at Apogee. My math says Troy finishes 4-8.

What's your reasoning behind that? Long standing tradition at apogee?

Nope, the Mean Green will just be the better team that day. Troy just ain't what she use to be & will have a difficult time breaking even season in 2012.

REALLY? ONE season and now Troy isnt what she use to be? Lord. Your in for a rude awakening dude.

We'll find out won't we ? You may be the one who's in for the rude awakening DUDE.

The big ones fall hard.

I don't buy this whole "the SBC was weaker" argument. Yeah, it was, but that doesn't somehow diminish Troy's accomplishments. They had a somewhat respectable OOC performance so I can't completely get behind the argument that they were only good because the SBC was bad.

(06-20-2012 11:26 PM)Tiguar Wrote:  I don't buy this whole "the SBC was weaker" argument. Yeah, it was, but that doesn't somehow diminish Troy's accomplishments. They had a somewhat respectable OOC performance so I can't completely get behind the argument that they were only good because the SBC was bad.

They just want to make sh*# up.

(06-20-2012 11:19 PM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  The big ones fall hard.

yep...they sure do.

I must respectfully disagree with the Week 1 prediction of Troy beating UAB. We shall see though soon enough... something like 72 days away.

(06-20-2012 11:26 PM)Tiguar Wrote:  I don't buy this whole "the SBC was weaker" argument. Yeah, it was, but that doesn't somehow diminish Troy's accomplishments. They had a somewhat respectable OOC performance so I can't completely get behind the argument that they were only good because the SBC was bad.

I don't think anyone is saying they were "only" good because the SBC was bad. As I thought with UNT when they fell from grace, the climb back is harder because there are fewer easy games to win.

Let's walk down the standings from 2011
- In 2010 Arkansas State won 4 games. Troy won by 7 at home. Last year ASU wins 10 and wins by 31
- Two game winner WKU loses by 14 at Troy. Seven game winner WKU wins by 23 in Bowling Green.
- Three game winner Louisiana loses by 7 at Troy. Nine game winner Louisiana wins by 14 in Lafayette.
- Troy loses to 7 game winner FIU by 17 at Troy. 8 game winner FIU wins by 3 in Miami
- Troy beats 3 game winner UNT in Denton by 6. Five game winner UNT wins by 5 at Troy
- Five game winner ULM wins by 14 in Monroe. Four game winner ULM wins by 28 at Troy
- Six game winner MTSU loses by 29 in Smurfeesboro. Two game winner MTSU loses by 3 at Troy
- Four game winner FAU loses by 37 at FAU. One game winner FAU loses by 27 at Troy.

Arkansas State, Louisiana, Western Kentucky, Florida International and North Texas were all demonstrably better in 2011 than in 2010. Troy went 4-1 against them with a positive +17 points overall in those games. In 2011 Troy goes 0-5 against them outscored by a total of 76 points. A swing of 93 points in one year or an average 18.6 points per game worse.

ULM, MTSU, and FAU were all demonstrably worse in 2011 than in 2010.
In 2010 Troy went 2-1 against the group with a net point difference of +52 In 2011 again went 2-1 with a net point difference of +2.

My conclusions
#1. Troy wasn't a world beater in the Sun Belt in 2010. At home beating one the teams tied four 4th by 7 points and losing to the other on the road by 14. We had a three team crash for 6th place. Troy beat one of them by 7 at home, another by 6 on the road and then pasted the other on the road. Troy beat #9 by 14 at home. The team was three bad plays from a 3-5 record in the Sun Belt in 2010. The difference was Troy stopped UNT at the Troy 26 on UNT's final drive. Troy went 67 yards in under 50 seconds to beat ASU, Troy went 53 yards against Louisiana in the final seven minutes and then stymied two Cajun drives.
#2. To get back in to the 2010 mode, Troy has to face teams in Arkansas State, Louisiana, Western Kentucky, North Texas, who should be better than they were in 2010. FAU will be no worse. FIU will be no worse. ULM should be no worse than the 2010 squad, maybe better.

(06-21-2012 01:31 AM)mbelcher987 Wrote:  I must respectfully disagree with the Week 1 prediction of Troy beating UAB. We shall see though soon enough... something like 72 days away.

Oh look, a UAB fan who thinks his football program is better than Troy's. surprise surprise.

(06-21-2012 01:31 AM)mbelcher987 Wrote:  I must respectfully disagree with the Week 1 prediction of Troy beating UAB. We shall see though soon enough... something like 72 days away.

Almost every UAB preview says UAB isnt going to have a good season even Though they have a new head coach. Theres just no play makers. And that they lost a lot of players from last season which wasnt a good season. And the reviews I read say UAB will have a successful season to get 3-4 wins...

Quote:

Garrick McGee has been the offensive coordinator at Arkansas the last couple seasons and there is little doubt that the Arkansas Offense was one of the nation's best. The question is how much of the offensive production was due to McGee when everyone knows Bobby Petrino has most of the control of his offenses. McGee certainly was a very good QB Coach, but the question remains if he can be a great head coach yet.

UAB's offense in 2011 struggled for most of the season, but the last 3 games of the year they averaged 35 points per game. Jonathan Perry, a scrambling QB, had a good Spring learning the McGee offense. While Arkansas' system under Petrino rarely used a scrambling QB, McGee does have experience calling plays for a running QB while serving as OC at Northwestern. I'd expect Perry's passing to improve in 2012, but will likely struggle to complete 60% of his passes, something this offense needs to work. Fortunately, for Perry the WR depth is very solid. I'd expect UAB's offense to rely more on the ground game than many would expect from a McGee offense in year 1. Offensive Coordinator Jeff Brohm knows this system well having served as a Petrino assistant at Louisville for several seasons.

Last year UAB's defense allowed 485 yards a game, ranking 11th in the 12 team CUSA. Reggie Johnson comes to UAB from the Arkansas Coaching staff. Johnson has been an assistant under Petrino at Arkansas & Louisville, but has no experience as a DC. The defense only returns 4 starters from a year ago so there will be some growing pains. Marvin Burdette is a very good player at linebacker, but outside of that UAB doesn't have many stars.

This is a team that lacks much experience in its head coach, assistants, and the talent on the field. 2012 is going to be a tough season for UAB and if McGee is able to get this team to 3-4 wins then I would consider the season a success. I think McGee gives the program more hope than Callaway did, but I'm still not sold on the fact that he will turn this program around.


Matt Barber