(05-25-2012 01:08 PM)4x4hokies Wrote:  FWIW I had calculated the tv numbers for all the conferences based on what the SEC reported theirs to be. I assumed everyone had similar escalations and tried to line them up. Well all that data is out of date pretty much but the relevant thing is that the SEC's contract was averaging almost 17.1 million over 15 years. So if we assume our escalators are similar as theirs were then I have the payments figured out:

Payment in millions, years 1-15 based on SEC reported payout assuming a set percentage escalation:
12.8125
13.42261905
14.0327381
14.64285714
15.25297619
15.86309524
16.47321429
17.08333333
17.69345238
18.30357143
18.91369048
19.52380952
20.13392857
20.74404762
21.35416667

Thanks for posting this. I'm trying to fit two more bits of information into my estimates, namely (1) the ACC doesn't get $17M until year 9 (you show it in year 8, which is close), and (2) the final year the ACC gets over $23M. Based on that I had to conclude a non-linear growth rate. I just updated my blog accordingly.

(05-25-2012 01:19 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-25-2012 01:08 PM)4x4hokies Wrote:  FWIW I had calculated the tv numbers for all the conferences based on what the SEC reported theirs to be. I assumed everyone had similar escalations and tried to line them up. Well all that data is out of date pretty much but the relevant thing is that the SEC's contract was averaging almost 17.1 million over 15 years. So if we assume our escalators are similar as theirs were then I have the payments figured out:

Payment in millions, years 1-15 based on SEC reported payout assuming a set percentage escalation:
12.8125
13.42261905
14.0327381
14.64285714
15.25297619
15.86309524
16.47321429
17.08333333
17.69345238
18.30357143
18.91369048
19.52380952
20.13392857
20.74404762
21.35416667

Thanks for posting this. I'm trying to fit two more bits of information into my estimates, namely (1) the ACC doesn't get $17M until year 9 (you show it in year 8, which is close), and (2) the final year the ACC gets over $23M. Based on that I had to conclude a non-linear growth rate. I just updated my blog accordingly.

I based it solely on what the SEC's total deal was reported and what they reported the payout to be the first year or two. Then I based it all on those percentages.

I found the SEC's numbers the easiest to locate and most of the other contracts hadn't started. That is why I was using them. Their average was 17.08 million per year so slightly lower than the new ACC number.

If you are doing a blog, I might suggest lining the deals up if you can roughly figure out a pattern on escalations. It is interesting to see, for instance, the SEC wasn't going to be as far behind the PAC as it appeared on the surface just for the fact that they were further into their contract.

This is what I had for the old ACC contract FWIW:
This is millions of dollars using the same pattern from the SEC contract:
9.6875
10.27462121
10.86174242
11.44886364
12.03598485
12.62310606
13.21022727
13.79734848
14.3844697
14.97159091
15.55871212
16.14583333


EDIT: I was basing this on the fact that the contracts appeared to start 25% below average. So I assumed they would go from 25% below on up to 25% above by the end.

This isn't perfect, but I have our old deal and our new deal figured:

These are in millions estimated payout each year assuming the contracts go from 75 to 125 percent of average. The issue is I don't know about the 2012 number since it would be with only 12 teams so I just pretended all the years were with 14 teams. So that number could be off.

Year Old Con. - New Contract
2012 10.27 --- 12.86
2013 10.86 --- 13.47
2014 11.45 --- 14.08
2015 12.04 --- 14.69
2016 12.62 --- 15.31
2017 13.21 --- 15.92
2018 13.80 --- 16.53
2019 14.38 --- 17.14
2020 14.97 --- 17.76
2021 15.56 --- 18.37
2022 16.15 --- 18.98
2023 --- 19.59
2024 --- 20.20
2025 --- 20.82
2026 --- 21.43

EDIT: The average difference is 2.71 million

(05-25-2012 01:19 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-25-2012 01:08 PM)4x4hokies Wrote:  FWIW I had calculated the tv numbers for all the conferences based on what the SEC reported theirs to be. I assumed everyone had similar escalations and tried to line them up. Well all that data is out of date pretty much but the relevant thing is that the SEC's contract was averaging almost 17.1 million over 15 years. So if we assume our escalators are similar as theirs were then I have the payments figured out:

Payment in millions, years 1-15 based on SEC reported payout assuming a set percentage escalation:
12.8125
13.42261905
14.0327381
14.64285714
15.25297619
15.86309524
16.47321429
17.08333333
17.69345238
18.30357143
18.91369048
19.52380952
20.13392857
20.74404762
21.35416667

Thanks for posting this. I'm trying to fit two more bits of information into my estimates, namely (1) the ACC doesn't get $17M until year 9 (you show it in year 8, which is close), and (2) the final year the ACC gets over $23M. Based on that I had to conclude a non-linear growth rate. I just updated my blog accordingly.

The date listed in the article stating the $17MM is not attained until 2021 (thanks, Iberian Panther, good find) may be incorrect, no data is provided. Regardless, the average is still an average which is the main point and all contracts follow the same basic plans of escalation; namely less than average at the beginning and more than average at the end.

All the same qualifications apply to this. This was done the same way using the estimate of average 20 million for 13 years.

Year B12 Con. - ACC Contract
2012 --- 12.86
2013 --- 13.47
2014 15.00 --- 14.08
2015 15.83 --- 14.69
2016 16.67 --- 15.31
2017 17.50 --- 15.92
2018 18.33 --- 16.53
2019 19.17 --- 17.14
2020 20.00 --- 17.76
2021 20.83 --- 18.37
2022 21.67 --- 18.98
2023 22.50 --- 19.59
2024 23.33 --- 20.20
2025 24.17 --- 20.82
2026 25.00 --- 21.43

The average difference is 2.24 million with a beginning diff of .92 and an ending one of 3.57

excellent work 4X4

(05-25-2012 02:08 PM)HtownOrange Wrote:  ...the average is still an average which is the main point and all contracts follow the same basic plans of escalation; namely less than average at the beginning and more than average at the end.

The point I was trying to make (and perhaps failed to communicate) is that if you compare 2 contracts, you can't just say contract B averages $3M/yr more than contract A if, in fact, A starts 2 years sooner and runs 2 years longer. By the time contract B even begins, A has had 2 years of escalation. Hence, the real difference is slightly less.

NOTE: My original calculations were wrong - I've corrected my math. Now the difference per year is actually $2.6M/yr on average for the 13 years of overlap (not $3M, but not $1M either).

Also, it's important to keep in mind when evaluating the relative importance of this gap that it is just one of many revenue streams, and should be placed in that context. For example, FSU's total revenue for 2011 (tax returns) was $78,575,788 - which means $2.6M comes out to 3.3% of the total.

Only 3.3% - that's some perspective that too many fans just don't get. It's jut too easy to say "my team would win the national championship if we only had that extra $3 million". [DISCLAIMER: I don't want to reopen the whole "stop whining" dialog - there's been too much of that already, IMO - I just want to restore some realism].

It appears that if we were to reverse the trend and start winning before the 'look in'...even a bump of one to two million per year would cover much of the difference.

(05-24-2012 10:25 PM)sufan Wrote:  http://atleagle.blogspot.com/2012/05/tv-...mothy.html


"The only fact out of the Big 12 is that the average of the deal comes out to $20 million per year. This does not start until 2015. These are graduated deals. For the ACC, the whole length of the deal is $17 million plus, but a different formulation puts the ACC at $19 million. So, you could really be talking about another million per year if a school went to the Big XII.

ESPN has no interest in creating a have-not conference when they have created a have in the ACC. The ACC is probably the most balanced from markets, geography, sports, and academics. My read is that TV values are maybe 30% of athletic budgets at this point. It is big, but not everything."


Excellent interview:

1) So the Big 12 $20m deal begins in 2015. Not sure anyone has picked up on this point.

2) Does anyone know what "a different formulation puts the ACC at $19 million" refers to?

-------------------------------------------

Re: "19 million or more":


Could it refer to tier 3 TV rights that ESPN does not choose to broadcast, and that schools can then sell?

Or perhaps to TV rights relating to re-broadcast of game?

Or perhaps to TV rights to games other than football and men's BB?