Published on: May 21, 2012
Written by: Clay Travis

Last year the Big 12 was a dead conference walking after Texas A&M and Missouri bolted for the SEC.

Then came guaranteed television money and the 13 year grant of rights that led to further stability.

Once the other seven teams in the conference realized they had no true options the Big 12 wasn't a dead conference walking anymore. Everyone had to get together and work everything out.

Options provoke instability which leads to greater instability.

So do you know what you've got if Florida State bolts for the Big 12?

Mutually assured conference destruction for the ACC and the Big East.

http://m.outkickthecoverage.com/the-acc-...-nears.php

When will you guys learn? All this stuff rolls downhill in a clearly-deliniated path. The only conference that is likely to be destroyed in the bottom conference in FBS. ACC will raid Big East and survive as a conference way ahead of Big East and CUSA, but behind the other four. Big East and CUSA will be fairly indistinguishable, and the SBC will have to get more move-ups.

(05-22-2012 10:39 AM)Panthersville Wrote:  When will you guys learn? All this stuff rolls downhill in a clearly-deliniated path. The only conference that is likely to be destroyed in the bottom conference in FBS. ACC will raid Big East and survive as a conference way ahead of Big East and CUSA, but behind the other four. Big East and CUSA will be fairly indistinguishable, and the SBC will have to get more move-ups.

I really wouldn't be so sure about that. It's clear that no matter what happens, the ACC and Big East are going to be on the outside looking in, so you have to imagine all of those schools are looking for a way into the SEC, Big 12 or Big Ten.

FSU/Clemson to the Big 12, would the Big 12 go past 12 members? If so who do they take? Louisville had long been thought to be Big 12 bound, Georgia Tech's name had come up as a possible team to go with FSU. You could make a pretty decent Southeastern block for the Big 12 with FSU/Clemson/GT/Louisville and get them to 14 members, would they consider going to 16? Miami? With everyone else bolting could Pitt pull a TCU and never play a snap in the ACC and go along with WVU? Notre Dame?

Would the Big Ten consider adding UNC/Duke? They're definitely a bit out of footprint, but if UNC/Duke wants a seat at the table, they're going to have to sacrifice on academics or hope that the Big Ten will take them in. A couple of years ago there was Syracuse and Rutgers scuttlebutt to the Big Ten. Notre Dame?

As long as Notre Dame is available, I doubt either one of the Big Ten or Big 12 goes to 16 members, but I think the Domers might finally be strong armed into joining a conference.

The SEC is still sitting out there at 14 and VT/NCST has been a combo linked to the SEC for a while now.

If the SEC/Big Ten/Big 12 all go to 16 members, that's an additional 12 schools to be added, now of course one of them could be Notre Dame and I suppose there is the outside chance one of them could be BYU, but even still that's 10 schools going from the ACC/Big East. If that happens, you may see a merger of those two conferences with little to no trickle beyond that.

My real question in this whole matter is what the Pac 12 does? If the trend becomes 16 teams, I just don't see anyone out there that the Pac 12 can add. The one option that makes sense is BYU. There's not another school that makes sense from a geographic/cultural/quality standpoint. They'd never take Boise due to academics and then who else is there? You think the PAC would ever take schools like UNLV, UNM, SDSU...? I don't.

At some point, the law of diminishing returns sets in for these conferences. I believe that number is 14, not 16. If FSU and Clemson get a Big 12 invite, look to see if the SEC counters with invites of its own. If not, they are staying at 14 - I don't think NC and VA are that important to them.

However, in the Big 12 goes to 14, they need two more - GT and Louisville make the most sense to me as I think that decision will be made before ND finally decides to get in a conference (when it does, it will be the B1G - who will sit at 12 until then). The ACC then needs three, and it gets UConn, Rutgers, and maybe USF, and would be far from dead.

The one thing that is certain is that it isn't over.

(05-22-2012 12:11 PM)Panthersville Wrote:  At some point, the law of diminishing returns sets in for these conferences. I believe that number is 14, not 16. If FSU and Clemson get a Big 12 invite, look to see if the SEC counters with invites of its own. If not, they are staying at 14 - I don't think NC and VA are that important to them.

However, in the Big 12 goes to 14, they need two more - GT and Louisville make the most sense to me as I think that decision will be made before ND finally decides to get in a conference (when it does, it will be the B1G - who will sit at 12 until then). The ACC then needs three, and it gets UConn, Rutgers, and maybe USF, and would be far from dead.

The one thing that is certain is that it isn't over.

USF basketball is pretty bad, how are their academics? Not sure the ACC would want them.

(05-22-2012 12:15 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(05-22-2012 12:11 PM)Panthersville Wrote:  At some point, the law of diminishing returns sets in for these conferences. I believe that number is 14, not 16. If FSU and Clemson get a Big 12 invite, look to see if the SEC counters with invites of its own. If not, they are staying at 14 - I don't think NC and VA are that important to them.

However, in the Big 12 goes to 14, they need two more - GT and Louisville make the most sense to me as I think that decision will be made before ND finally decides to get in a conference (when it does, it will be the B1G - who will sit at 12 until then). The ACC then needs three, and it gets UConn, Rutgers, and maybe USF, and would be far from dead.

The one thing that is certain is that it isn't over.

USF basketball is pretty bad, how are their academics? Not sure the ACC would want them.

I picked a FL school to replace FSU - the point being, they get their pick.

(05-22-2012 12:17 PM)Panthersville Wrote:  

(05-22-2012 12:15 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(05-22-2012 12:11 PM)Panthersville Wrote:  At some point, the law of diminishing returns sets in for these conferences. I believe that number is 14, not 16. If FSU and Clemson get a Big 12 invite, look to see if the SEC counters with invites of its own. If not, they are staying at 14 - I don't think NC and VA are that important to them.

However, in the Big 12 goes to 14, they need two more - GT and Louisville make the most sense to me as I think that decision will be made before ND finally decides to get in a conference (when it does, it will be the B1G - who will sit at 12 until then). The ACC then needs three, and it gets UConn, Rutgers, and maybe USF, and would be far from dead.

The one thing that is certain is that it isn't over.

USF basketball is pretty bad, how are their academics? Not sure the ACC would want them.

I picked a FL school to replace FSU - the point being, they get their pick.

Right, but I don't think there's really anyone out there that they would pick after Rutgers and UCONN, especially if they're going to be on the outside looking in anyhow, especially with UNC and Duke running the show like they will be at that point. Who else out there has the academics? With their football pretty much dead in the water at this point anyhow, I'd say scooping up Villanova or maybe even Temple would make more sense the USF.

(05-22-2012 12:45 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(05-22-2012 12:17 PM)Panthersville Wrote:  

(05-22-2012 12:15 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(05-22-2012 12:11 PM)Panthersville Wrote:  At some point, the law of diminishing returns sets in for these conferences. I believe that number is 14, not 16. If FSU and Clemson get a Big 12 invite, look to see if the SEC counters with invites of its own. If not, they are staying at 14 - I don't think NC and VA are that important to them.

However, in the Big 12 goes to 14, they need two more - GT and Louisville make the most sense to me as I think that decision will be made before ND finally decides to get in a conference (when it does, it will be the B1G - who will sit at 12 until then). The ACC then needs three, and it gets UConn, Rutgers, and maybe USF, and would be far from dead.

The one thing that is certain is that it isn't over.

USF basketball is pretty bad, how are their academics? Not sure the ACC would want them.

I picked a FL school to replace FSU - the point being, they get their pick.

Right, but I don't think there's really anyone out there that they would pick after Rutgers and UCONN, especially if they're going to be on the outside looking in anyhow, especially with UNC and Duke running the show like they will be at that point. Who else out there has the academics? With their football pretty much dead in the water at this point anyhow, I'd say scooping up Villanova or maybe even Temple would make more sense the USF.

They will still be a viable football conference - just in a solid #6 position. If USF/UCF don't have the academics worth going after them to enhance the Florida connection, maybe they go after Navy? It will be all about profile at that point for them, and Navy sells tickets wherever they go.

Clay has a man crush on Va. Tech and NC State. Tech had to do way too much to get into the ACC. They're not going anywhere even with an invite. They also don't deserve it. Anytime they play a team that's percieved to be their equal they get the crap kicked out of them.

If anything happens, SEC gets first choice, B12 next, then ACC, then Big East. I dont see more chaos. I dont see any movement out of the Belt except into a USM and ECU-less Conference USA. At that point, why move?

This may be a ploy be FSU to get in the SEC (pure speculation). If so, it probably won't work.

The big four thing is grossly overstated anyway. I mean the second place team in the ACC is almost never competitive with Number 2 SEC/B12/B10 anyway. The loss of the AQ and the four team playoff is the problem.

(05-22-2012 10:39 AM)Panthersville Wrote:  When will you guys learn? All this stuff rolls downhill in a clearly-deliniated path. The only conference that is likely to be destroyed in the bottom conference in FBS. ACC will raid Big East and survive as a conference way ahead of Big East and CUSA, but behind the other four. Big East and CUSA will be fairly indistinguishable, and the SBC will have to get more move-ups.

If the BigEast, becomes a complete CUSA 2.0. will be basketball side want to play or walk away? If so there will be little "East" left in the Big.

(05-22-2012 11:45 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(05-22-2012 10:39 AM)Panthersville Wrote:  When will you guys learn? All this stuff rolls downhill in a clearly-deliniated path. The only conference that is likely to be destroyed in the bottom conference in FBS. ACC will raid Big East and survive as a conference way ahead of Big East and CUSA, but behind the other four. Big East and CUSA will be fairly indistinguishable, and the SBC will have to get more move-ups.

I really wouldn't be so sure about that. It's clear that no matter what happens, the ACC and Big East are going to be on the outside looking in, so you have to imagine all of those schools are looking for a way into the SEC, Big 12 or Big Ten.

FSU/Clemson to the Big 12, would the Big 12 go past 12 members? If so who do they take? Louisville had long been thought to be Big 12 bound, Georgia Tech's name had come up as a possible team to go with FSU. You could make a pretty decent Southeastern block for the Big 12 with FSU/Clemson/GT/Louisville and get them to 14 members, would they consider going to 16? Miami? With everyone else bolting could Pitt pull a TCU and never play a snap in the ACC and go along with WVU? Notre Dame?

Would the Big Ten consider adding UNC/Duke? They're definitely a bit out of footprint, but if UNC/Duke wants a seat at the table, they're going to have to sacrifice on academics or hope that the Big Ten will take them in. A couple of years ago there was Syracuse and Rutgers scuttlebutt to the Big Ten. Notre Dame?

As long as Notre Dame is available, I doubt either one of the Big Ten or Big 12 goes to 16 members, but I think the Domers might finally be strong armed into joining a conference.

The SEC is still sitting out there at 14 and VT/NCST has been a combo linked to the SEC for a while now.

If the SEC/Big Ten/Big 12 all go to 16 members, that's an additional 12 schools to be added, now of course one of them could be Notre Dame and I suppose there is the outside chance one of them could be BYU, but even still that's 10 schools going from the ACC/Big East. If that happens, you may see a merger of those two conferences with little to no trickle beyond that.

My real question in this whole matter is what the Pac 12 does? If the trend becomes 16 teams, I just don't see anyone out there that the Pac 12 can add. The one option that makes sense is BYU. There's not another school that makes sense from a geographic/cultural/quality standpoint. They'd never take Boise due to academics and then who else is there? You think the PAC would ever take schools like UNLV, UNM, SDSU...? I don't.

I think BYU and Air Force would be the Pac 12's best options unless they can convince Texas to come on board. If that happened then Oklahoma, Oklahoma St and Texas Tech would probably also go along. The Big 12 would then be looking to add BYU, Air Force, Louisville, Ga Tech or anyone from the ACC of Big East that they could entice to join their conference.

(05-22-2012 10:24 PM)RUfan03 Wrote:  

(05-22-2012 11:45 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(05-22-2012 10:39 AM)Panthersville Wrote:  When will you guys learn? All this stuff rolls downhill in a clearly-deliniated path. The only conference that is likely to be destroyed in the bottom conference in FBS. ACC will raid Big East and survive as a conference way ahead of Big East and CUSA, but behind the other four. Big East and CUSA will be fairly indistinguishable, and the SBC will have to get more move-ups.

I really wouldn't be so sure about that. It's clear that no matter what happens, the ACC and Big East are going to be on the outside looking in, so you have to imagine all of those schools are looking for a way into the SEC, Big 12 or Big Ten.

FSU/Clemson to the Big 12, would the Big 12 go past 12 members? If so who do they take? Louisville had long been thought to be Big 12 bound, Georgia Tech's name had come up as a possible team to go with FSU. You could make a pretty decent Southeastern block for the Big 12 with FSU/Clemson/GT/Louisville and get them to 14 members, would they consider going to 16? Miami? With everyone else bolting could Pitt pull a TCU and never play a snap in the ACC and go along with WVU? Notre Dame?

Would the Big Ten consider adding UNC/Duke? They're definitely a bit out of footprint, but if UNC/Duke wants a seat at the table, they're going to have to sacrifice on academics or hope that the Big Ten will take them in. A couple of years ago there was Syracuse and Rutgers scuttlebutt to the Big Ten. Notre Dame?

As long as Notre Dame is available, I doubt either one of the Big Ten or Big 12 goes to 16 members, but I think the Domers might finally be strong armed into joining a conference.

The SEC is still sitting out there at 14 and VT/NCST has been a combo linked to the SEC for a while now.

If the SEC/Big Ten/Big 12 all go to 16 members, that's an additional 12 schools to be added, now of course one of them could be Notre Dame and I suppose there is the outside chance one of them could be BYU, but even still that's 10 schools going from the ACC/Big East. If that happens, you may see a merger of those two conferences with little to no trickle beyond that.

My real question in this whole matter is what the Pac 12 does? If the trend becomes 16 teams, I just don't see anyone out there that the Pac 12 can add. The one option that makes sense is BYU. There's not another school that makes sense from a geographic/cultural/quality standpoint. They'd never take Boise due to academics and then who else is there? You think the PAC would ever take schools like UNLV, UNM, SDSU...? I don't.

I think BYU and Air Force would be the Pac 12's best options unless they can convince Texas to come on board. If that happened then Oklahoma, Oklahoma St and Texas Tech would probably also go along. The Big 12 would then be looking to add BYU, Air Force, Louisville, Ga Tech or anyone from the ACC of Big East that they could entice to join their conference.

Nobody is leaving the Big XII any more. The grant of rights took care of that.

(05-23-2012 06:49 AM)Vobserver Wrote:  

(05-22-2012 10:24 PM)RUfan03 Wrote:  

(05-22-2012 11:45 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(05-22-2012 10:39 AM)Panthersville Wrote:  When will you guys learn? All this stuff rolls downhill in a clearly-deliniated path. The only conference that is likely to be destroyed in the bottom conference in FBS. ACC will raid Big East and survive as a conference way ahead of Big East and CUSA, but behind the other four. Big East and CUSA will be fairly indistinguishable, and the SBC will have to get more move-ups.

I really wouldn't be so sure about that. It's clear that no matter what happens, the ACC and Big East are going to be on the outside looking in, so you have to imagine all of those schools are looking for a way into the SEC, Big 12 or Big Ten.

FSU/Clemson to the Big 12, would the Big 12 go past 12 members? If so who do they take? Louisville had long been thought to be Big 12 bound, Georgia Tech's name had come up as a possible team to go with FSU. You could make a pretty decent Southeastern block for the Big 12 with FSU/Clemson/GT/Louisville and get them to 14 members, would they consider going to 16? Miami? With everyone else bolting could Pitt pull a TCU and never play a snap in the ACC and go along with WVU? Notre Dame?

Would the Big Ten consider adding UNC/Duke? They're definitely a bit out of footprint, but if UNC/Duke wants a seat at the table, they're going to have to sacrifice on academics or hope that the Big Ten will take them in. A couple of years ago there was Syracuse and Rutgers scuttlebutt to the Big Ten. Notre Dame?

As long as Notre Dame is available, I doubt either one of the Big Ten or Big 12 goes to 16 members, but I think the Domers might finally be strong armed into joining a conference.

The SEC is still sitting out there at 14 and VT/NCST has been a combo linked to the SEC for a while now.

If the SEC/Big Ten/Big 12 all go to 16 members, that's an additional 12 schools to be added, now of course one of them could be Notre Dame and I suppose there is the outside chance one of them could be BYU, but even still that's 10 schools going from the ACC/Big East. If that happens, you may see a merger of those two conferences with little to no trickle beyond that.

My real question in this whole matter is what the Pac 12 does? If the trend becomes 16 teams, I just don't see anyone out there that the Pac 12 can add. The one option that makes sense is BYU. There's not another school that makes sense from a geographic/cultural/quality standpoint. They'd never take Boise due to academics and then who else is there? You think the PAC would ever take schools like UNLV, UNM, SDSU...? I don't.

I think BYU and Air Force would be the Pac 12's best options unless they can convince Texas to come on board. If that happened then Oklahoma, Oklahoma St and Texas Tech would probably also go along. The Big 12 would then be looking to add BYU, Air Force, Louisville, Ga Tech or anyone from the ACC of Big East that they could entice to join their conference.

Nobody is leaving the Big XII any more. The grant of rights took care of that.

It is amazing how this works like politics around the world. The dude with the big stick wins......and this time the stick is money.

(05-23-2012 08:40 AM)Buzz Lightyear Lite Wrote:  It is amazing how this works like politics around the world. The dude with the big stick wins......and this time the stick is money.

The stick is always money, because money can always buy a bigger stick.