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The Big East, what we don't know
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arkstfan Away
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Post: #1
The Big East, what we don't know
Ok. We know they fired their commissioner.

We know it was something they had settled into early because they were already prepared with a search firm.

The problem is what factor(s) led them to this point?

Here are the possibles that I see.

1. The Taglibue plan has proven to be more trouble than it is worth. The big Big East was formulated based on the idea that big and many markets is the way to go, it is also a plan that ignores that at some point a tennis or volleyball team has to travel from Milwaukee to Houston or from New York to Orlando. The reality of the logistics are sinking in and they aren't happy.

2. The TV dollars just aren't going to be there. While it may still deliver enough dollars that the newcomers will be happy, the other members are putting paper to pencil and not liking what is emerging.

3. There are second thoughts about a football driven expansion now that it is clear AQ is truly going away. Does it really help to add some good and some bad schools spread across the country.

4. The basketball schools are getting out of the panic mode and looking hard at what they've done. They've lost RPI 1, 52, and 96 and replaced them with RPI 16, 20, 54, 214, and 217. Three good additions and two terrible ones to the hoop schools.

5. The league continues to feel the threat of potential raids by the Big XII or an ACC response to an SEC raid and someone has to take the fall for the continued sense of instability.

The Big East motivation and what is next has to be a significant concern. Was this a basketball driven coup? Basketball is the cash cow of this league, if they are convinced the product is damaged will they stick around or go for a fresh start? Is this a football driven firing and is it frustration over TV or over the geographic reach?
05-07-2012 01:06 PM
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Usajags Offline
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Post: #2
RE: The Big East, what we don't know
I really hope the SEC isn't looking at getting bigger, what I have heard is the Big XII is looking at adding Clemson and FSU. If that happens, the ACC may take a look at what is left in the Big East.
05-07-2012 01:15 PM
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Panthersville Offline
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RE: The Big East, what we don't know
(05-07-2012 01:15 PM)Usajags Wrote:  I really hope the SEC isn't looking at getting bigger, what I have heard is the Big XII is looking at adding Clemson and FSU. If that happens, the ACC may take a look at what is left in the Big East.

They would absolutely go after UCONN, and would talk with ND. If ND wouldn't go for it - Rutgers gets in the ACC.
05-07-2012 01:21 PM
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Post: #4
RE: The Big East, what we don't know
Good analysis arkstfan.
Has made a lot of people wonder if what the BE was doing truly made sense. They have made a mockery of the old tried and true concept of adding schools mostly to get into big markets regardless of the schools there were adding. CUSA then used the same concept it seems.
Believe it has scared the **** out of some members. Believe it is long distance realization brought to light by potential failure of upcoming TV negotiations.
05-07-2012 01:28 PM
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PTJR Offline
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RE: The Big East, what we don't know
(05-07-2012 01:06 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Ok. We know they fired their commissioner.

We know it was something they had settled into early because they were already prepared with a search firm.

The problem is what factor(s) led them to this point?

Here are the possibles that I see.

1. The Taglibue plan has proven to be more trouble than it is worth. The big Big East was formulated based on the idea that big and many markets is the way to go, it is also a plan that ignores that at some point a tennis or volleyball team has to travel from Milwaukee to Houston or from New York to Orlando. The reality of the logistics are sinking in and they aren't happy.

2. The TV dollars just aren't going to be there. While it may still deliver enough dollars that the newcomers will be happy, the other members are putting paper to pencil and not liking what is emerging.

3. There are second thoughts about a football driven expansion now that it is clear AQ is truly going away. Does it really help to add some good and some bad schools spread across the country.

4. The basketball schools are getting out of the panic mode and looking hard at what they've done. They've lost RPI 1, 52, and 96 and replaced them with RPI 16, 20, 54, 214, and 217. Three good additions and two terrible ones to the hoop schools.

5. The league continues to feel the threat of potential raids by the Big XII or an ACC response to an SEC raid and someone has to take the fall for the continued sense of instability.

The Big East motivation and what is next has to be a significant concern. Was this a basketball driven coup? Basketball is the cash cow of this league, if they are convinced the product is damaged will they stick around or go for a fresh start? Is this a football driven firing and is it frustration over TV or over the geographic reach?

Like everything else in all of these conference shifts, it all is related to money and how much. It seems clear that the automatic payday from a BCS bowl is gone for the Big East. That doesn't mean they couldn't have a team that could qualify, but it is not a given anymore. With that money probably gone, could the addition of all of these new markets make up for that loss on the TV side?

Also, when you say that basketball is the cash cow for the Big East, how do you mean that specifically? In the ESPN story on this firing, it was stated that that the basketball schools of the Big East were pissed becaused they had little or no input on the selection of the new members. If basketball is the cash cow of the Big East, how could the basketball schools not have had a lot of input on the selection of the new teams?

Arkstfan, we all value your perspective on these sort of issues. What is your best guess (and really that's all anybody can do at this point) about where the Big East is headed?
05-07-2012 01:29 PM
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RE: The Big East, what we don't know
(05-07-2012 01:06 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Basketball is the cash cow of this league, if they are convinced the product is damaged will they stick around or go for a fresh start? Is this a football driven firing and is it frustration over TV or over the geographic reach?

That is really the only question that matters.

But if you look at the numbers the Big East made more than any other league last year (tie with the Big 10) in BCS and NCAA Tourney distributions and makes nearly an equal amount. I've always expected this arrangement to last as long as both basketball and football were bringing big bucks to the table. Everyone has been willing to suck it up because it has been more finacially rewarding to stay together than split. If one ever starts to signficantly outperform the other in terms of finacial production then that could lead to divorce. Regardless of what has transpired we simply won't know that with certainty for a few more years, so I wouldn't expect any earthshattering revelations in the near future simply because they made this move.
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2012 01:47 PM by ThreeifbyLightning.)
05-07-2012 01:29 PM
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ThreeifbyLightning Online
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RE: The Big East, what we don't know
The Clemson/FSU rumors and subsequent effect on UConn and Rutgers is a far greater threat to the Big East right now than anything else.
05-07-2012 01:35 PM
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arkstfan Away
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RE: The Big East, what we don't know
The current Big East TV deal breaks down like this
Basketball members receive $1.56 million for telecasts of all sports except football.
Football members receive $1.62 million just for football so full members get both numbers.

That means the basketball and other sports package is worth $24.96 million per year and the football portion is worth $12.96 million.

Also remember that there is a HUGE difference between reported numbers for bowl income and numbers for the NCAA Tournament.

With the bowl figures that is gross income and you are paying the cost of all the players and coaches spending a week in hotel rooms, flying them down, as well as numerous events done in conjunction. Plus a significant portion of that reported gross is in the form of tickets, every unsold ticket drops the net proceeds by $40 to $100 depending on the game.

With the basketball numbers, those tend to be pretty close to net income. The NCAA pays travel and expenses for a set number of players and a traveling party independent of the units earned. The reported basketball numbers are nearly 100% profit while the bowl figures are probably about 50% profit and can be worse than that.

My belief regarding the Big East expansion is that brought Taglibue in to consult because of his TV expertise, while he knows his stuff its a totally different realm and that coupled with the panic that followed caused the Big East to rush into their decisions.

They have taken two programs that are going to hurt the basketball product in Houston and SMU and that reality is sinking in.

They have also disrupted the power distribution. The league was 9 private and 7 public institutions. They lost two public universities and one private from the ranks of full members and have replaced them four public and one private. The full member balance is now 9 private and 9 public. The prior balance was 8 non-football and 8 football and now becomes 8 non-football and 10 football.

The basketball members were splitting roughly $25 million 16 ways and now split that 18 ways. The first three million of any new dollars are going to be consumed just to keep everyone whole. After that each basketball member will only enjoy 5.5% of the new dollars above that amount vs. 6.25% when they were a 16 team league.

Another factor to remember. The Big East voted to turn down an ESPN offer to triple their money before they lost Syracuse, Pitt and West Virginia. There are claims that those schools or at least some of them were key to opposing the offer. Even if they match that offer now the per team is less. Someone has to pay for that and the presidents can't take it out the departees or themselves, so the commissioner gets that blame as well.
05-07-2012 03:04 PM
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RE: The Big East, what we don't know
It sounds like some would like to turn back the clock a year or so.
Were they really that blind not to foresee what would happen?
05-07-2012 03:18 PM
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RE: The Big East, what we don't know
(05-07-2012 03:18 PM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  It sounds like some would like to turn back the clock a year or so.
Were they really that blind not to foresee what would happen?

They weren't blind, just arrogant. I've said this many times, the problem is that no one is driving the car with all this. Everyone is acting alone, every school and every conference. No one is working together for the betterment of college sports. This was doomed to fail since the beginning.
05-07-2012 03:26 PM
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RE: The Big East, what we don't know
(05-07-2012 03:26 PM)Usajags Wrote:  
(05-07-2012 03:18 PM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  It sounds like some would like to turn back the clock a year or so.
Were they really that blind not to foresee what would happen?

They weren't blind, just arrogant. I've said this many times, the problem is that no one is driving the car with all this. Everyone is acting alone, every school and every conference. No one is working together for the betterment of college sports. This was doomed to fail since the beginning.

Panic is a factor.

Arrogance drove them to turn down a TV package that would not have put them at the ACC level but would have been close enough that they might not have been quite so eager to leave the Big East. Syracuse of the three might not have been willing, maybe Pitt and WVU would have been.

With 3x money off the table at their own decision and three big players gone, panic sets in. The fans were clamoring for them to do SOMETHING. Don't forget there were Big East aligned people who truly believed that if they rejected the ESPN deal and followed Taglibue's advice that they could break the bank with a blockbuster deal that would strong enough to court BC back to the league. Maybe that was plausible enough that it led the ACC to shore up BC by expanding or maybe the ACC just feared that their members wouldn't hold firm against SEC offers (a fear that appears misplaced at least so far as the non-Clemson, non-Florida State members go, since they reportedly were blackballed by their cross-state rivals).
05-07-2012 03:43 PM
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