I posted this on another message board last week in response to something a fan with no understanding of the Big East posted. Since it concerns the Big East, though, it only makes sense to post it here too. I firmly believe that Penn State holds the key to the future of the Big East football schools. Luring away Penn State ends the threat of Big Ten expansion forever and greatly stabilizes this conference, even if South Florida has to be jettisoned in the process. Leaving one far-flung member behind is well worth it to achieve the dream of a geographically-sensible and nationally-respected conference.
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Mark it down now. The Big East football membership will not go to 12 teams when the split takes place. They are not the ACC, SEC, or B12. The football culture is different in the Northeast. A championship game would not work for that part of the country. Where would they hold it? Outdoors in December? It would look so big time on TV at Giants Stadium with 10,000 fans, huh? The Northeast focuses on professional sports (NFL, NBA, MLB) not college sports. It's been this way for decades. That's one of the reasons the Big East has issues now. The Big East football membership will go to 10 schools at most.
First of all, when the Big East football schools split they will threw EVERYTHING, including the kitchen sink, at Penn State in a last ditch desperation attempt to get the Nittany Lions to defect from the Big Ten and return home to the East Coast. The odds of them succeeding don't look good now, but let's wait to see what the college football landscape looks like in 2008 or 2009. Another factor is how well South Florida does over the next few years. If the Bulls are not pulling their weight in the league, look for the other seven football schools to leave them behind at the time of the split.
If Penn State can somehow be convinced to join, look for them to insist on bringing Temple along (fellow state university with a few close academic ties). That is also probably somewhat contingent on Temple improving, even marginally, in the MAC. Then again, if South Florida sucks over the next few years, why pay travel costs to fly down to Florida to administer an annual beating you could deliver much closer in Philadelphia for a fraction of the cost? Most experts can't see Penn State being in a football league with South Florida anyway, so the left behind scenario might have to happen no matter what.
OPTION A: SYRACUSE, CONNECTICUT, RUTGERS, PITT, WEST VIRGINIA, LOUISVILLE, CINCINNATI, PENN STATE, TEMPLE, and NOTRE DAME (everything except football).
But if Penn State can't be convinced to join, you still shouldn't look for the Big East to go after MAC teams. There's also the issue of South Florida being completely isolated from the league with no geographic rivals in sight. Therefore, look for Central Florida to be invited. Temple would be screwed again. Adding Central Florida, which is building a new on-campus stadium and a new on-campus basketball arena, would allow teams to knock off two conference games in one weekend trip down South. It's much more cost-efficient. This also depends on Central Florida getting better in football obviously.
OPTION B: SYRACUSE, CONNECTICUT, RUTGERS, PITT, WEST VIRGINIA, LOUISVILLE, CINCINNATI, SOUTH FLORIDA, CENTRAL FLORIDA, and NOTRE DAME (everything except football).
That's it. There are no other options except the remote possibility of East Carolina edging out Central Florida (or Massachusetts or Villanova moving up to NCAA Division I-A). Memphis, Southern Mississippi, and UAB are in the wrong time zone and the wrong part of the country. The Big East doesn't need to become CUSA North/East. And if the Big East wanted any MAC teams, they would've taken them already. Miami of Ohio barely averaged 15,000 fans a year after Ben Roethlisberger. Marshall duplicates West Virginia's market. Totally unnecessary. The Big East football schools will aim as high as possible.
As for the rest of your post, why would East Carolina leave CUSA to join the Sun Belt? They would still be isolated from the rest of the league. It's a lateral move offering no improvement at best. In addition, why would CUSA want three Louisiana teams? If they desired Louisiana Tech, they would've taken them instead of UTEP, which is thousands of miles away from everyone else, the last time. Louisiana Tech's situation is going to get worse, not better, in the next few years. Texas State is light years away from being able to move up. The MAC has already turned down YSU more than once.
In conclusion, the next realignment will not be as dramatic as people imagine. If the Big East lures Penn State (and Temple), the Big Ten will just stay at 10 again. Michigan and Ohio State rule that league, and they are VEHEMENTLY opposed to a title game anyway. A left behind South Florida would end up begging for CUSA readmission or joining the Sun Belt. But if Penn State tells the Big East no, look for CUSA to replace Central Florida with either North Texas (to the chagrin of the East Division) or New Mexico State (to the chagrin of UTEP despite the travel savings for the rest of the league). That's it.
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