where will all of this shuffling leave the Belt with respect to money/guarantee games? These super conferences will more than likely require 9 game conference schedules. Add in an FCS game and you are left with two OOC games for the super conference teams to schedule. I wonder how that will affect money/guarantee games moving forward.

I think the price of non aq's will go up due to scarcity of opponents. I think you'll also see the aqs shying away from fcs games.

(09-19-2011 11:12 AM)AstroCajun Wrote:  I think the price of non aq's will go up due to scarcity of opponents. I think you'll also see the aqs shying away from fcs games.

Agree. A minimum of $1 million large for non-aq games. Remember, the AQ conferences currently control 90% of the TV (BCS) money. Make the sumbitches pay us!

(09-19-2011 11:51 AM)Green Menace Wrote:  

(09-19-2011 11:12 AM)AstroCajun Wrote:  I think the price of non aq's will go up due to scarcity of opponents. I think you'll also see the aqs shying away from fcs games.

Agree. A minimum of $1 million large for non-aq games. Remember, the AQ conferences currently control 90% of the TV (BCS) money. Make the sumbitches pay us!

+1000

I say we move up even more.

For a one and done $1.5 million to start.
For a 2 for 1 $1 million per game
1 for 1, no charge.

FIU has show that having a WINNABLE OOC and taking care of business will get you attention in the media and in generable perception. I dare say they have it right when it comes to OOC scheduleing.

FAU and other 'Belt schools I hope are taking note.

This is short-term bad. As leagues start playing 9 conference games the number of available dates will be smaller. Most likely one of the three non-conference dates is going to be an FCS.

TV has been trying to push for some decent games in non-conference (LSU-Oregon, Oklahoma-FSU) so getting 2 money games is going to be difficult.

But I view it the same way I viewed the NCAA rule change requiring 5 home games. It's a save us from ourself sort of thing.

We are going to have to play more home/home series with other non-AQ schools and schedule some FCS and if we schedule the right ones, that is going to be a positive. Last year Arkansas State average 17,394 at home. To do that again this year, ASU has to draw 104,364. Barring a major terror incident or natural disaster between now and Saturday, ASU is going to need to average about 11,000 in the final four home games to hit that. If ASU averages 15,000 in the final four home games we will draw an average of 20,000 for the year.

If you can get to the point of grossing around $2 million for the season at home, you really only need one money game. If you are playing 1 money game and buying one FCS, you should be playing 6 home games.

There is an added bonus to that.

Last year, every AQ school that went .500 or better in league play went to a bowl. Six non-AQ that went .500 or better in league play ended up not being bowl eligible. Two more got eligible but had no place to go. Ten AQ schools with losing conference records ended up bowl eligible and went. Adding another league game in AQ leagues will make it harder to get eligible with a losing league record. If you go 4-5 in league you have to go 2-1 in non-conference that's not that hard but if you go 3-6 in league you have no room for error and have to go 3-0. Likewise if you cut one 85%-99% certainty loss money game and replace it with a peer institution, the odds are better for getting bowl eligible.

In short, the AQ end up with a few less teams getting eligible and the non-AQ get a few more eligible. Those extra bowl appearances among the non-AQ go long a way toward developing a ticket buying fan base.

(09-19-2011 12:28 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  This is short-term bad. As leagues start playing 9 conference games the number of available dates will be smaller. Most likely one of the three non-conference dates is going to be an FCS.

TV has been trying to push for some decent games in non-conference (LSU-Oregon, Oklahoma-FSU) so getting 2 money games is going to be difficult.

But I view it the same way I viewed the NCAA rule change requiring 5 home games. It's a save us from ourself sort of thing.

We are going to have to play more home/home series with other non-AQ schools and schedule some FCS and if we schedule the right ones, that is going to be a positive. Last year Arkansas State average 17,394 at home. To do that again this year, ASU has to draw 104,364. Barring a major terror incident or natural disaster between now and Saturday, ASU is going to need to average about 11,000 in the final four home games to hit that. If ASU averages 15,000 in the final four home games we will draw an average of 20,000 for the year.

If you can get to the point of grossing around $2 million for the season at home, you really only need one money game. If you are playing 1 money game and buying one FCS, you should be playing 6 home games.

There is an added bonus to that.

Last year, every AQ school that went .500 or better in league play went to a bowl. Six non-AQ that went .500 or better in league play ended up not being bowl eligible. Two more got eligible but had no place to go. Ten AQ schools with losing conference records ended up bowl eligible and went. Adding another league game in AQ leagues will make it harder to get eligible with a losing league record. If you go 4-5 in league you have to go 2-1 in non-conference that's not that hard but if you go 3-6 in league you have no room for error and have to go 3-0. Likewise if you cut one 85%-99% certainty loss money game and replace it with a peer institution, the odds are better for getting bowl eligible.

In short, the AQ end up with a few less teams getting eligible and the non-AQ get a few more eligible. Those extra bowl appearances among the non-AQ go long a way toward developing a ticket buying fan base.

I've been advocating a one money game and one FCS game schedule for a long time. Long term, I think adding a win to the record is more beneficial than the payout for one game a year.

Add one win to each of ASU's last 10 years and the reputation is greatly enhanced.

(09-19-2011 11:51 AM)Green Menace Wrote:  

(09-19-2011 11:12 AM)AstroCajun Wrote:  I think the price of non aq's will go up due to scarcity of opponents. I think you'll also see the aqs shying away from fcs games.

Agree. A minimum of $1 million large for non-aq games. Remember, the AQ conferences currently control 90% of the TV (BCS) money. Make the sumbitches pay us!

Post of the day for the use of the word sumbitches.

(09-19-2011 11:12 AM)AstroCajun Wrote:  I think the price of non aq's will go up due to scarcity of opponents. I think you'll also see the aqs shying away from fcs games.

Price is going to go down as AQ conference schedules increase to 9 games. Some schools like UGA/GT and UF/FSU will only have two OOC spots. There are a few other rivalries that are about to become cross conference that may or may not be continued Pitt/WVU, UT/TAMU, Kansas/Mizzou.

(09-20-2011 01:24 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(09-19-2011 11:12 AM)AstroCajun Wrote:  I think the price of non aq's will go up due to scarcity of opponents. I think you'll also see the aqs shying away from fcs games.

Price is going to go down as AQ conference schedules increase to 9 games. Some schools like UGA/GT and UF/FSU will only have two OOC spots. There are a few other rivalries that are about to become cross conference that may or may not be continued Pitt/WVU, UT/TAMU, Kansas/Mizzou.

I see this the same as you. With the WAC bringing in more FCS schools and the big conferences moving to 9 game schedules, there will be more schools to choose from thus lower guarantees l.

This whole thing may evolve into 6 (96 teams) or 7 (112 teams) 16 team conferences. The majority of FBS schools would be in, however some would be out.

(09-20-2011 01:55 PM)MG61 Wrote:  This whole thing may evolve into 6 (96 teams) or 7 (112 teams) 16 team conferences. The majority of FBS schools would be in, however some would be out.

8 would make more sense.
4 Superconferences
4 Mid-conferences
128 total, several FCS move up

(09-20-2011 01:44 PM)bluephi1914 Wrote:  

(09-20-2011 01:24 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(09-19-2011 11:12 AM)AstroCajun Wrote:  I think the price of non aq's will go up due to scarcity of opponents. I think you'll also see the aqs shying away from fcs games.

Price is going to go down as AQ conference schedules increase to 9 games. Some schools like UGA/GT and UF/FSU will only have two OOC spots. There are a few other rivalries that are about to become cross conference that may or may not be continued Pitt/WVU, UT/TAMU, Kansas/Mizzou.

I see this the same as you. With the WAC bringing in more FCS schools and the big conferences moving to 9 game schedules, there will be more schools to choose from thus lower guarantees l.

Over the next several years Texas State, UTSA, South Alabama and UMASS are all joining the party, even if the Big XII/Big East scrap heap merger expands to 12 by picking up three current non-AQs, the numbers are still not in our favor, especially if any non-AQ conferences are still playing 8 game schedules.

ACC-16
Pac-16
SEC-14
Big Ten-12
Scrap heap merger-12

That's 70 total AQ's, if they all play nine game conference schedules, that's 210 OOC games for them, Notre Dame, BYU, Army and Navy are too unpredictable to factor in as Notre Dame plays mostly AQ's, BYU plays a mix, and Army and Navy play mostly non-AQs, so we'll just work with that 210 number.

Assuming no newcomers(though there will almost certainly be a couple, unless the WAC is absorbed by other conferences) there will be 54 non-AQs and if they're all playing 8 game conference schedules, that's 216 OOC slots to be filled. Now of course the Sun Belt is supposed to be headed to a 9 game conference schedule, but even if all non-AQ conferences did that that would still be 162 OOC slots to be filled, which sounds like supply and demand would be in our favor, however, most AQ's will play a FCS school every year, if we just put that number at 75% of AQ's playing a FCS game that drops their OOC slots to somewhere in the 160's, then figure in cross sectional rivalries like UGA/GT, UF/FSU, new ones like WVU/Pitt, Mizzou/Kansas, UT/TAMU and let's not pretend like we won't still see marquee OOC games like the ones this year:LSU/Oregon, Miami/tOSU, Auburn/Clemson, OU/FSU etc. the numbers really aren't in our favor. I honestly think that we'll see the paychecks stay below $500,000 in the future.

Honestly, the best thing that could happen for us would be for the NCAA to go back to the one FCS every four years rule or just eliminate FBS/FCS games. I know a lot of non-AQs like to utilize those games for wins as well, but it would help drive the prices for our paycheck games back up and it would also encourage more cross conference scheduling among the non-AQs.

(09-20-2011 01:58 PM)NCowl Wrote:  

(09-20-2011 01:55 PM)MG61 Wrote:  This whole thing may evolve into 6 (96 teams) or 7 (112 teams) 16 team conferences. The majority of FBS schools would be in, however some would be out.

8 would make more sense.
4 Superconferences
4 Mid-conferences
128 total, several FCS move up

Almost definitely won't happen that way as the Big East/Big XII scrap heap merger is not going to be a "mid-conference".