(08-31-2011 02:40 PM)InjunJohn Wrote:  Damn you! Damn you all to hell! You succeeded at pulling me into an expansion thread.

Ok, here you go. I the SEC takes A&M, then it needs one more and will probably go after 3. Need another in the west so I say they probably go after Missouri. Close and natural rival for Arkansas. The others will come from the east. Look for FSU, Ga Tech, and Clemson as natural targets.

FSU already plays Florida and it solidifies Florida recruiting for the SEC. Ga Tech already plays Georgia. Clemson already plays South Carolina. All three are rivalries that take place now.

The fact that they already play each other has no bearing on the situation whatsoever.

Georgia has owned Tech for the last decade, presumably Georgia Tech would get a boost in recruiting, fan interest, and of course revenue by joining the SEC. Why would Georgia want to help Tech out like that? It's like bringing a gun to a knife fight and then feeling bad about it and giving your rival a gun too.

Furthermore, while I do think that common sense would eventually prevail and they'd realize it was worth the sacrifice, I think academically they'd definitely take pause before joining the SEC.

The disparity between South Carolina and Clemson and Florida and Florida State is not quite what it is between Georgia and Tech, but the points apply here just not nearly to the same extent. Florida State and Clemson being much closer to their rivals may not stand to gain as much from joining the SEC as Georgia Tech would, but it certainly couldn't hurt them.

(08-31-2011 01:37 PM)CAJUNNATION Wrote:  

(08-31-2011 12:39 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  Yeah if Cajunnation's pick of Louisville was to pick an eastern division team to balance TAMU and avoid pulling from the ACC, West Virginia is definitely way ahead of Louisville and that's even before Kentucky slaps the veto on Louisville.

They are virtually identical.

Did you say utes?

I'm starting to think that by Thanksgiving, one of the conferences we have today is going out of business, maybe two.

Big XII and Big East are both capable of being hit by multiple leagues to such a point that they cannot continue (really think that if Baylor and Iowa State are all that is left of the Big XII they keep BCS bid, TV contract, etc.?) or both getting hit so hard their leftovers merge.

Anything happens in the west, USU gets the call-up for the MWC, maybe SJSU does, maybe (long shot) Idaho does.

Right now wouldn't want to be running athletics at Iowa State, Baylor, Idaho or SJSU.

It could crazy domino and we lose teams but we wouldn't lose that many and the Texas Twins, Georgia State, App, and Jax St all want in and I cannot see us losing enough to even consider all of them.

But always remember, the simplest route is usually what happens. Too many moving parts is hard to pull off (see Pac-16 raid of Big XII) and always remember politics can come into play.

I will add this caveat. Considering how Bama-Auburn has worked at the top and OM-MissSt at the bottom of the SEC, I don't buy the "gentleman's agreement" talk. If the best candidates to get to where they want to be are Clemson, FSU, and Louisville, they will be added.

No way, no how does Louisville get into the SEC. They bring nothing. No new fans, no new $$$'s, no national appeal, no new territory. Aside from basketball, they have mediocre sports.

The SEC isn't desperate to add a 14th team. They're not going to add someone just for the sake of adding. They'll find the right program. And if they don't they'll wait.

They'll call VT and OU first. OU is the marquee team they can pair with A&M. VT fits in the footprint, adds the state of Virginia (and gets the SEC into Washington DC). And VT is a fit culturally. But both VT and OU have some political problems they'll have to overcome. I also think OU might want the PAC-whatever instead of the SEC dogfights and VT might realize they won't be as successful in the SEC as they have been.

Next, I think they call FSU. The SEC is already in Florida, and UGA/UF might throw a fit, but FSU is a national name. So while they might not add TV sets in Florida - they'll add TV sets all over the country. FSU vs Bama, LSU, UGA will be a game on every TV in the lower 48 states. ESPN and CBS know this.

After that, Mizzou, UNC (NC State if UNC declines), West Virginia are all next on the list.

(09-01-2011 09:29 AM)RaiderDoug Wrote:  No way, no how does Louisville get into the SEC. They bring nothing. No new fans, no new $$$'s, no national appeal, no new territory. Aside from basketball, they have mediocre sports.

The SEC isn't desperate to add a 14th team. They're not going to add someone just for the sake of adding. They'll find the right program. And if they don't they'll wait.

They'll call VT and OU first. OU is the marquee team they can pair with A&M. VT fits in the footprint, adds the state of Virginia (and gets the SEC into Washington DC). And VT is a fit culturally. But both VT and OU have some political problems they'll have to overcome. I also think OU might want the PAC-whatever instead of the SEC dogfights and VT might realize they won't be as successful in the SEC as they have been.

Next, I think they call FSU. The SEC is already in Florida, and UGA/UF might throw a fit, but FSU is a national name. So while they might not add TV sets in Florida - they'll add TV sets all over the country. FSU vs Bama, LSU, UGA will be a game on every TV in the lower 48 states. ESPN and CBS know this.

After that, Mizzou, UNC (NC State if UNC declines), West Virginia are all next on the list.

The last SEC expansion was not TV driven. Arkansas and South Carolina are not major TV markets. The SEC TV market is national.

They will add schools that culturally fit.

Louisville's attendance last year in football was higher than the attendance at Arkansas when they were admitted. Their hoops attendance is double what Arkansas' was.

I'm not saying that Louisville is the team, but I think you misunderstand the SEC and its thought process when you discount them. Adding Louisville would turn the UK-Louisville football and basketball rivalries into late season classics of some national interest.

Back in the big shake-up that created the Big XII, then Arkansas athletic director Frank Broyles (who was also a former ABC analyst) said Louisville would be the sort of school the SEC would want. That was BEFORE the new stadium opened at Louisville and long before the new arena.

(09-01-2011 08:23 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  I'm starting to think that by Thanksgiving, one of the conferences we have today is going out of business, maybe two.
Big XII and Big East are both capable of being hit by multiple leagues to such a point that they cannot continue (really think that if Baylor and Iowa State are all that is left of the Big XII they keep BCS bid, TV contract, etc.?) or both getting hit so hard their leftovers merge.
Anything happens in the west, USU gets the call-up for the MWC, maybe SJSU does, maybe (long shot) Idaho does.
Right now wouldn't want to be running athletics at Iowa State, Baylor, Idaho or SJSU.
It could crazy domino and we lose teams but we wouldn't lose that many and the Texas Twins, Georgia State, App, and Jax St all want in and I cannot see us losing enough to even consider all of them.
But always remember, the simplest route is usually what happens. Too many moving parts is hard to pull off (see Pac-16 raid of Big XII) and always remember politics can come into play.
I will add this caveat. Considering how Bama-Auburn has worked at the top and OM-MissSt at the bottom of the SEC, I don't buy the "gentleman's agreement" talk. If the best candidates to get to where they want to be are Clemson, FSU, and Louisville, they will be added.

Like a moth to a flame....

(09-01-2011 10:17 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(09-01-2011 09:29 AM)RaiderDoug Wrote:  No way, no how does Louisville get into the SEC. They bring nothing. No new fans, no new $$$'s, no national appeal, no new territory. Aside from basketball, they have mediocre sports.

The SEC isn't desperate to add a 14th team. They're not going to add someone just for the sake of adding. They'll find the right program. And if they don't they'll wait.

They'll call VT and OU first. OU is the marquee team they can pair with A&M. VT fits in the footprint, adds the state of Virginia (and gets the SEC into Washington DC). And VT is a fit culturally. But both VT and OU have some political problems they'll have to overcome. I also think OU might want the PAC-whatever instead of the SEC dogfights and VT might realize they won't be as successful in the SEC as they have been.

Next, I think they call FSU. The SEC is already in Florida, and UGA/UF might throw a fit, but FSU is a national name. So while they might not add TV sets in Florida - they'll add TV sets all over the country. FSU vs Bama, LSU, UGA will be a game on every TV in the lower 48 states. ESPN and CBS know this.

After that, Mizzou, UNC (NC State if UNC declines), West Virginia are all next on the list.

The last SEC expansion was not TV driven. Arkansas and South Carolina are not major TV markets. The SEC TV market is national.

They will add schools that culturally fit.

Louisville's attendance last year in football was higher than the attendance at Arkansas when they were admitted. Their hoops attendance is double what Arkansas' was.

I'm not saying that Louisville is the team, but I think you misunderstand the SEC and its thought process when you discount them. Adding Louisville would turn the UK-Louisville football and basketball rivalries into late season classics of some national interest.

Back in the big shake-up that created the Big XII, then Arkansas athletic director Frank Broyles (who was also a former ABC analyst) said Louisville would be the sort of school the SEC would want. That was BEFORE the new stadium opened at Louisville and long before the new arena.

The last expansion was not TV driven because the networks aren't the players they are now. This entire round of expansion was driven by ever increasing TV contracts.

As a UTK (along with MT) alum living in Knoxville who's been force fed this story for a long time - Louisville has about as much chance of getting into the SEC as Memphis. It's just not happening. They're not going to take a small, urban, regional school with a mediocre athletic program and a small (by SEC standards) fan base and zero national appeal that also just so happens to be a hated rival of one of the SEC's major players in Kentucky. They want the big state mofos. Might as well go get Cincy - at least then you have a foothold in Big 10+2 country.

I suppose anything is possible (TCU in the Big East?), but the SEC would have to get down to about #9 on the list before Louisville is even mentioned.

They only need 4 "no" votes, I know Tennessee isn't interested, I presume UK gives them the thumbs down, and I don't see them having too much trouble rounding up 2 more.

Ok. My fearless prediction. Texas A&M will petition to join the SEC. Every other conference will then wonder who the SEC will go after next. There will be much hand wringing and worrying about futures. Numerous more posts will be made on each conference web site about reallignment, super conferences, and monstrosities that stretch from Florida to Washington state. The non-AQ conferences will stand against the wall and eye each other suspicously.

Benson will look at a promising Div II school that wants to make a jump to the "big time" and would like to have a home in the new and improved WAC.....could be you North Alabama!!

Bulldogs, Barks and Bytes will be all abuzz just waiting for their impending invite to the Big XII, X, VIII....whatever their new name needs to be!!

I agree the SEC wants "the big mofo" but the nature of the game has changed. TV isn't regional any more especially for the SEC, its national. That in part is one of the Big XII's problems. I was in Washington, DC the weekend of the Red River Shootout and they were getting regional coverage of some ACC crap and OU-UT is on some alternate channel that my hotel didn't have. ABC, except for the Saturday night game, isn't clearing games coast-to-coast. So while Mizzou and TAMU play on ABC regional Kentucky and LSU are on CBS in virtually every market.

If I were guessing the SEC consideration list it would look like this (in order) after TAMU.
WEST: Texas, OU, Mizzou, OkSt (only if needed to get OU), Kansas, Texas Tech (only if needed to get UT).
EAST: Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Louisville, Virginia (only if needed for Tech)West Virginia.

The SEC doesn't care how many TV viewers are in the city of the school nor even the state. They want to know if they put them on TV will people across the country watch.

If you removed TV from the equation, the SEC would stay like it is. The schools WANT to play each other, they like competing against each other.

(09-01-2011 01:32 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I agree the SEC wants "the big mofo" but the nature of the game has changed. TV isn't regional any more especially for the SEC, its national. That in part is one of the Big XII's problems. I was in Washington, DC the weekend of the Red River Shootout and they were getting regional coverage of some ACC crap and OU-UT is on some alternate channel that my hotel didn't have. ABC, except for the Saturday night game, isn't clearing games coast-to-coast. So while Mizzou and TAMU play on ABC regional Kentucky and LSU are on CBS in virtually every market.

If I were guessing the SEC consideration list it would look like this (in order) after TAMU.
WEST: Texas, OU, Mizzou, OkSt (only if needed to get OU), Kansas, Texas Tech (only if needed to get UT).
EAST: Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Louisville, Virginia (only if needed for Tech)West Virginia.

The SEC doesn't care how many TV viewers are in the city of the school nor even the state. They want to know if they put them on TV will people across the country watch.

If you removed TV from the equation, the SEC would stay like it is. The schools WANT to play each other, they like competing against each other.

Agreed 100%. That's why FSU has a shot despite opposition from UGA/UF. They're a national brand and they bring TV ratings nationwide.

Of all those schools you listed, Louisville would be at the bottom of that list for SEC expansion. I would even add someone like WVA, NC State, and Duke (they would love Duke vs. UK Bball and Duke is a name that sells and the academics don't hurt) over Louisville.

The SEC is in a great position. They have the ability right now to solidify themselves as the premier college football conference and better their basketball. That is why the SEC will, in addition to adding A&M, add Mizzou (a top 25 basketball program), and Kansas (a top 10 basketball program). The SEC will put a full court press on UNC (a top 10 basketball program). If UNC says no, the SEC will pluck NC State (a top 25 caliber basketball program) and be done with it. These moves will better SEC basketball, expand the conference into Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Kansas City, St. Louis, and Raleigh-Durham, and increase the national appeal of the conference's football and basketball programs.

(09-01-2011 02:47 PM)bluephi1914 Wrote:  The SEC is in a great position. They have the ability right now to solidify themselves as the premier college football conference and better their basketball. That is why the SEC will, in addition to adding A&M, add Mizzou (a top 25 basketball program), and Kansas (a top 10 basketball program). The SEC will put a full court press on UNC (a top 10 basketball program). If UNC says no, the SEC will pluck NC State (a top 25 caliber basketball program) and be done with it. These moves will better SEC basketball, expand the conference into Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Kansas City, St. Louis, and Raleigh-Durham, and increase the national appeal of the conference's football and basketball programs.

A lot of issues with this scenario.

First and foremost adding three to the west and one to the east pushes Auburn to the east and the SEC is not splitting up Auburn and Bama.

Second it's unlikely UNC would make the move due to academics and I have my doubts that the SEC would be interested in their football.

Third Kansas? NC State? I don't think Kansas has any shot whatsoever, elite basketball not withstanding, they really don't bring much else.

NC State I can maybe see, but I don't think they'd be among their top choices.

I still think that West Virginia is in a great position, they are just outside the top 30 in football average attendance and that's playing in the Big East with an SEC invite, I wouldn't be surprised if they were expanding their stadium within ten years and for all your talk about basketball since 2005 they've been to four sweet sixteens and went to the final four in 2010. No real major markets, but they basically deliver the entire state of West Virginia and they have a large alumni base in Pittsburgh.