http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/27/us/pol...ml?_r=2&hp

Who's eligible to cast a ballot at the Ames Straw Poll? Do you have to buy a ticket or pay money (or anything like that) in order to vote?

(07-27-2011 09:59 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  Who's eligible to cast a ballot at the Ames Straw Poll? Do you have to buy a ticket or pay money (or anything like that) in order to vote?

Iowa residents only. You do have to pay to vote I think, but usually candidates pay your costs.

Bummmmmmmmp.

As a measure of public-opinion, any pay-to-play format like the ASP is obviously of limited value. But as a test of organization, as a test of fundraising, and as a test of enthusiasm/intensity of support, it is very relevant.

The Ames Straw Poll is next Saturday, I think.

I'll predict the order of finish as
1. Ron Paul
2. Tim Pawlenty
3. Michele Bachmann
4. Herman Cain
5. Rick Perry (not officially participating, but a write-in effort seems to be under way)
6. Rick Santorum

Gingrich, Romney (not participating), Gary Johnson somewhere behind

(08-07-2011 06:33 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  The Ames Straw Poll is next Saturday, I think.

I'll predict the order of finish as
1. Ron Paul
2. Tim Pawlenty
3. Michele Bachmann
4. Herman Cain
5. Rick Perry (not officially participating, but a write-in effort seems to be under way)
6. Rick Santorum

Gingrich, Romney (not participating), Gary Johnson somewhere behind

Crazy lady #3? Nah, she will be higher since she was from Waterloo. If you have ever been to Waterloo, you will understand how she got to be as nuts as she is.

Bachmann could come in 2nd. That wouldn't shock me, although I have a blind hunch that Pawlenty will get the silver medal in this thing. But I am definitely convinced Ron Paul will come in 1st place. As George Will put it in his column the other day, Ron Paul is "the Babe Ruth of straw polls".

(08-08-2011 12:12 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  Bachmann could come in 2nd. That wouldn't shock me, although I have a blind hunch that Pawlenty will get the silver medal in this thing. But I am definitely convinced Ron Paul will come in 1st place. As George Will put it in his column the other day, Ron Paul is "the Babe Ruth of straw polls".

If it really is a test of organizational strength, then Bachmann won't do well. She has voter support but is having a hard time putting staff on the ground.

That is interesting to hear. I knew she had hired Ed Rollins in some capacity, and he is obviously a man who has played this game at the highest levels before (Reagan's campaign manager in '84, for example). But one veteran is not enough to cover all of Iowa.

(08-08-2011 06:37 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  That is interesting to hear. I knew she had hired Ed Rollins in some capacity, and he is obviously a man who has played this game at the highest levels before (Reagan's campaign manager in '84, for example). But one veteran is not enough to cover all of Iowa.

Rollins is a good hire, however she is having issues with turnover in her mid and lower level staff. A lot of it is due to her management style or lack of one. The larger issue is that most of the experienced, quality staff in the state was already taken by Pawlenty. The guy can't get voters but his staff is first class, especially his media team. Best media production team since Clinton 92 in terms of quality over competition.

I read where the winner of that Iowa straw poll has never won the Iowa caucus, so it may be really just a beauty contest. Still, seeing RP win the straw poll won't surprise me in the least.

If Pawlenty doesn't finish in the top 3, he may well be toast.