(07-17-2011 10:40 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: (07-15-2011 10:39 PM)chiefsfan Wrote: Lord knows the Sun Belt is shivering in fear of any conference with such powers as Montana State, Montana, and Texas San Antonio.
If worse comes to absolute worse the SBC feels the need to add and picks up Appalachian State... Sort of like we see your 20, and raise your 40.
IF the SBC wishes to expand to 12 (and we don't), I see the candidates list as follows:
1) La Tech (if they are willing to agree to a massive payment if they bolt again)
2) App State
3) Georgia State (another former SBC member that would probably have to sign the same sort of agreement that LTU would)
4) Georgia Southern
I don't see moving further West as doing the SBC any real favors. We tried it before with Idaho, Denver, and NM State. Its just too expensive for travel and created an unstable conference. UNT isn't going to leave for the WAC anytime soon (they've already turned them down several times). If somehow UNT got a bid from the CUSA (I think one of the South Florida schools is more likely), I think that the conference would simply replace UNT with another school from the Southeast (and LTU, Georgia State, App State are the most likely candidates).
The Sun Belt isn't the SEC and won't ever be. We know where we are and we're improving. And we can argue that we're now better than the MAC and are definitely better than the new WAC. Unless we have to make a move, and it looks like we don't, I say we just concentrate on getting WKU and USA more competitive in the league before we invite any new FCS teams to join up. I say, let the WAC be the new home of 'move up' schools.
The eastern Sun Belt has 4 schools along the Interstate 65 corridor and two in the Miami area. None of those schools would be willing in play in a western division consisting of Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana schools. Any additions to the east would be due to the Sun Belt either losing an eastern team to another conference or the Sun Belt making two seven team divisions. If eastern schools were added, Georgia State would have the best market and the Georgia Dome adjacent to campus but both Appalachian State and Georgia Southern have both had incredible success at the FCS level and add new regions.
Among the western Sun Belt candidates, Louisiana Tech has the most established program but adds no market value as long as ULM remains in the conference. Texas State is well prepared for the move from FCS and should quickly become become competitive at the FBS level. Like Texas State, UT-San Antonio has enormous potential, but the probability for success in their football program is still very suspect. NMSU is an established FBS school but Las Cruces is a thousand miles past, well, anything. Missouri State is the only other likely candidate for the western Sun Belt expansion. Missouri State is the second largest school in Missouri and has a very solid basketball program, but has not pursued a move to FBS football and seems content for now in the Missouri Valley Conference.
The best bet for the Sun Belt would probably be to sit tight and wait to see what the Big East and Big Twelve moves will be, and adjust accordingly as the dominoes fall. Additions to those two conferences would likely result in openings in either the MWC or to CUSA.
A CUSA opening would probably result in the Sun Belt losing an eastern school, and a MWC expansion could possibly result in a couple more WAC schools joining that league.
At that time the Sun Belt should evaluate the potential expansion candidates and invite the schools that would create the best 12, 14, or even 16 team conference. A lot can change between now and then. UT-San Antonio could have a solid football program, UT-Arlington might also have a football program, and Missouri state may then be interested in FBS football.