I haven't made any posts in regards to the Skully Forecast before on this site, but since it is bowl season I figured I'd give it a go.

I wrote a computer program that takes in football stats for two teams and based on those stats gives an outcome of how the game will likely play out. There are certain weights for certain stats that are part of my formula, but note that this is completely based on stats (strength of schedule included). If anyone remembers the Harmon Forecast that CBS Sports used (I didn't notice it this year) it is the same thing.

I was too busy this football season to enter data on a weekly basis (I need to write a program to automate this process) but for the previous two years my computer program was more accurate than the CBS Harmon Forecast. With that said, here are the outcomes predicted for the Sun Belt bowl games, the National Championship game, and the Capital One Bowl (since I already have the result for those two games). If you have a game you would like me to run let me know.

Comments?

Little Caesar's Bowl
FIU 30
Toledo 27

New Orleans Bowl
Ohio 39
Troy 23

GoDaddy.com Bowl
Miami OH 26
MTSU 23

BCS National Championship
Oregon 41
Auburn 27

Capital One Bowl
Alabama 35
Michigan State 17

(12-17-2010 12:04 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  I haven't made any posts in regards to the Skully Forecast before on this site, but since it is bowl season I figured I'd give it a go.

I wrote a computer program that takes in football stats for two teams and based on those stats gives an outcome of how the game will likely play out. There are certain weights for certain stats that are part of my formula, but note that this is completely based on stats (strength of schedule included). If anyone remembers the Harmon Forecast that CBS Sports used (I didn't notice it this year) it is the same thing.

I was too busy this football season to enter data on a weekly basis (I need to write a program to automate this process) but for the previous two years my computer program was more accurate than the CBS Harmon Forecast. With that said, here are the outcomes predicted for the Sun Belt bowl games, the National Championship game, and the Capital One Bowl (since I already have the result for those two games). If you have a game you would like me to run let me know.

Comments?

Little Caesar's Bowl
FIU 30
Toledo 27

New Orleans Bowl
Ohio 39
Troy 23

GoDaddy.com Bowl
Miami OH 26
MTSU 23

BCS National Championship
Oregon 41
Auburn 27

Capital One Bowl
Alabama 35
Michigan State 17

I'm no bowl expert; but I think Troy can win the N.O. Bowl. Cajuns competed very well AT Ohio this fall.

need to relook that program if it thinks Oregon will hold Auburn to 27!!

(12-17-2010 12:59 PM)InjunJohn Wrote:  need to relook that program if it thinks Oregon will hold Auburn to 27!!

Well my program relies on stats only. Oregon happens to have better offense AND defensive stats. Hard for my program to factor in other externals. Their SOS isn't that much different.

Other games of interest:

Chick-Fil-A Bowl -- looks like a good one!
South Carolina 27
Florida State 26

Sugar Bowl
Ohio State 34
Arkansas 28

Outback Bowl
Florida 32
Penn State 18

Music City
North Carolina 37
Tennessee 17

Cotton Bowl
Texas A&M 28
LSU 21

Gator Bowl -- Michigan's offensive stats too much. I think Miss State beats them
Michigan 34
Mississippi State 33

Liberty
UCF 28
Georgia 24

BBVA Compass Bowl
Kentucky 34
Pittsburgh 30

Interesting stuff, Skully.