Looking at realignment from a Western perspective. Utah Statesman article

Conference Realignment: Could the WAC be affected?
By Matt Sonnenberg

Published: Friday, April 30, 2010

Updated: Friday, April 30, 2010

As talks continue heating up all around the nation about conference realignment, one thing appears to be certain: Everybody is watching and waiting on the Big Ten Conference to make its move before anybody else jumps into action.

With the success of the Big Ten Network, as well as its rich tradition in college football and consistency among the nation’s top college basketball conferences, the Big Ten’s push for expansion makes it an appealing option to any team receiving an invitation to join.

A high-ranking source within USU said that a 14-team conference is the likely goal for the Big Ten, but a possibility of expanding to 16 teams also exists. It is believed that the only scenario in which the Big Ten, which currently has 11 teams, would expand to a 12-team conference would be if it could add Notre Dame. That scenario remains to be an unlikely one, due in part to Notre Dame’s exclusive television contract with NBC that would be nullified by the conference’s own TV contracts.

Some of the most likely teams to have Big Ten invitations extended their directions are Missouri and Pittsburgh, with Rutgers as a possibility. Such moves would leave the current conferences, which those teams call home, in a scramble to replace them with the highest-profile programs available from the non-BCS conferences. On top of that, other conferences would look to expansion as a way of keeping up with the Big Ten. The most notable, and probably intriguing of the expanding conference, would be the conference with the most direct relation and tradition to the Big Ten over the history of collegiate athletics, the Pac-10 conference.

The two conferences annually send their conference champion to compete in The Rose Bowl, known to many as “the grand-daddy of them all.” If the Big Ten expands like it appears it will attempt to do, the Pac-10 will be under tremendous pressure to expand as well.

Enter the Mountain West Conference.

The Mountain West has built its reputation up to the level of several of the BCS conference in recent years, fueled primarily behind the University of Utah, TCU and BYU. Utah, having arguably the most success of any non-BCS team in all of college football since the BCS was created, is the apparent No. 1 option for the Pac-10, should they choose to follow the Big Ten down the road of expansion. Their success in football, coupled with the size of the TV market they could bring to the table, make the Utes an appealing target for any expanding conference.

The other name mentioned along with Utah is Colorado, due in part to the Denver TV market they can bring to the table of an expanded Pac-10.

If Missouri does join the Big Ten and Colorado goes to the Pac-10, the Big XII conference would be left with just 10 teams and an immediate need to fill the voids vacated by Missouri and Colorado. The top suitor to join the Big XII at that point becomes TCU, leaving the Mountain West without its top two football programs.

The odd school out in the mix could indeed be Utah’s long-time rival BYU. With the Pac-10 looking for better TV revenue, the combination of Utah and Colorado brings in a substantially larger number of TV households into the conference than a combination of Utah and BYU.

So where does this leave the Western Athletic Conference? The more important question could end up being about what will remain of the Mountain West if football powers Utah and TCU leave. The Mountain West suddenly becomes a much less appealing option for a team like Boise State to accept an invitation to join if the caliber of teams has diminished so greatly. The end result may more likely be the WAC looking to expand by making offers to several of the remaining teams in the Mountain West, such as San Diego State, UNLV and possibly BYU.

A potential dream-scenario for the WAC would be to find a more fitting conference affiliation for Louisiana Tech, and add the remaining top teams from the Mountain West to form somewhat of a MWC/WAC dream team. The additions of BYU, UNLV, San Diego State and New Mexico would not only boost the football prowess of the WAC, but it would also afford the WAC the opportunity to split into a two-division football conference with a conference championship game. Not only that, but with the potential MWC additions added into a conference with the likes of Utah State and Nevada, the WAC could become a true power conference in basketball.

Much is still yet to happen with all matters associated to conference realignment, but given Utah State’s recent facilities upgrades, rising football program and continued success in basketball, it is safe to believe that the realignment will have a positive impact on Utah State athletically.

I think the WAC is safer than the Mountain West, unless if some mandate for everyone to go to 14 or 16 goes into effect for all FBS conferences (9 x 14 = 126, 8 x 16 x 128, there are 121 FBS teams counting South Alabama in 2013). The Mountain West having its own TV network would likely result in a merged conference keeping the Mountain West name, although there would be no requirement to do so in the event of a merger.

Remember that a conference loses its automatic bid to the basketball tournament if it has fewer than six members who have played together for five years.