RE: Analysis of 2009-2010 Attendance
Let's take a look at the Sun Belt and the expansions.
Formed in 1976 with:
Georgia State, Charlotte, Jacksonville, USF, UNO and USA
1979
Added VCU and UAB
1980
UNO forced out due to facility (Chamber of Horrors)
1982
ODU and WKU join
1991
Add UALR to replace departing members, more departures take place and the Sun Belt is left with USA, Jacksonville, WKU and soon to join UALR. League for all intents and purposes is dead.
The American South (Arkansas State, Central Florida, Lamar, Louisiana Lafayette, Louisiana Tech, New Orleans, and Texas-Pan American) agrees to merge with the Sun Belt with some encouragement from the NCAA. The ASC was a pretty good league and had just gotten its automatic bid and was coming off a season that saw 4 of 7 in post-season (UNO and Tech to NCAA, ASU and ULL to NIT) but the NCAA said merge and you get the units of both leagues.
At the time, I considered it a major tactical mistake. ASU was completing I-A transition, Tech had just finished, UCF was planning to start transition looking to be I-A in 93 or 94 (not going to the garage to find that stuff) and the league football members had a football scheduling alliance with Northern Illinois with an agreement to join football only if we found the final needed member. The ASC seemed to be track to being a I-A league.
Central Florida got cross-ways because their TV deal with one of the Florida sports channels conflicted with the deal we inherited from the Sun Belt, with lawsuits and everything. UCF asked to withdraw. They had put their I-A move on indefinite hold because of money problems so there was no move to keep them and they left after one year taking the league from 11 to 10 members.
UTPA was hard to reach and played before tiny crowds practically on the US-Mexican border. They had one decent run through the league and got busted by the NCAA. They hire new people and seem to be in order then discover a new round of NCAA violations. UTPA apparently felt the coach was involved and wanted to fire him but couldn't afford the buyout and on top of all that they were under big heat from the UT Regents for getting in trouble so soon after the last time. In their list of penalty suggestions they included (either because Regent pressure or the desire to be rid of the coach depends on whose story you believe) the death penalty as a suggested penalty. The NCAA declined to give them death but the members had all they could stand. The members moved to expel UTPA, they counted noses and saw where the vote would go and voluntarily withdrew leaving the league with 9 members. Then in bang-bang fashion, Jacksonville withdraws to join the TAAC (now Atlantic Sun) citing the number of regional schools and Lamar elects to return the Southland, the conference they left to form the American South.
The Sun Belt was suddenly at 7.
The members feared losing conference status and moved quickly to add members. Commissioner Thompson suggested FIU (had just won the TAAC) and Denver. The argument being that there appeared to be no combination of six football schools in the region willing to join that ASU, ULL, and Tech would agree to. So the shift would be to leave those three to continue to fend for themselves in football and they would focus on urban basketball schools. The league paid FIU's withdrawal penalty or at least waived entry fee to get the Panthers in immediately. The Denver logic in part was tied to a sales pitch that a key airline executive and Fox Sports executive were on the board and could help get a TV deal and an airline deal to save on airfare. Neither happened.
Then Thompson leaves.
The executive committee (at the time headed by UNO's chancellor and I think ASU's president, ULL's president were also on it) search for a new commissioner and were not pleased with the candidate pool. The football schools are getting fed up with their status and UNO supports them in the belief that if they don't hire a football guy, the league will fall apart in a few more years. They start using their contacts and are told call this guy at Bama, Wright Waters. He accepts once convinced they are really serious about adding football.
At this point the Big West is down to: ASU, UNT, USU, Idaho, NMSU, and Boise State. Football talks are going nowhere until a few things happen. 1. ASU re-joined under the condition that they can leave without penalty or notice so ASU gives notice of departure killing the league. 2 The meetings basically go no place because everyone is playing the "I won't join if X joins" game. 3. A new plan is adopted. Each member is told to secretly submit a letter of intent stating join or don't join within so many days without conditions. Boise is a doll through the whole process promising they will keep the bowl afloat for the league as long as needed as the most cooperative of the Big West schools. Once the letters are in the Sun Belt will go through each school and either offer full membership, football membership, or decline to extend an offer, but the letter is their acceptance. ULM announces they've sent their letter and state intent to join. As you would expect the lid blows off at Tech who announces they WON'T join. UCF who is also involved freaks and announces they won't join if Tech doesn't join. Tech is reminded that if we hit six, conference bylaws require they be expelled if they fail to join for football (of course reaching six at this point without ULM is basically impossible). UNO and Boise help calm the process down but then the WAC is suddenly needing to replace TCU so everything goes back on hold. Boise and Tech get the invites. The league extends full membership offers to MTSU, NMSU, and UNT and football only invites to ULM, USU, and Idaho. USU declines, Idaho has to wait to accept because the president isn't in town.
Then USU comes back wanting football membership a couple years later and Troy is invited for football.
Next the NCAA changes the rules for I-A leagues requiring 8 football members that play all sports in the league. All-sports invites are then extended to USU, Idaho, and Troy which will get the league to 8 with ULM the 9th member but not all sports. The WAC raids out NMSU and USU and then later Idaho. ULM is extended an all-sports invite.
The conference is still short two members.
FIU is planning to go I-A but not until 2007 or 08. They are contacted to see if they will accelerate. FAU had been in contact with the league about coming in possibly as soon as 2006 but was looking at 07. They were also asked if they would accelerate. FAMU had announced their intention but I think the consensus was it was a house of cards. WKU was also asked if they would be willing to declare for I-A and declined.
FIU accelerated and came in for football while FAU accelerated for football and was admitted all sports. Both played a league schedule in 05 but did not gain official I-A status until 2006.
Since then WKU gained I-A status and by rule, became members in football. The same course that USA is following.
While this is very lengthy, I think it demonstrates that the Sun Belt just doesn't grab any school that comes along unless we are at a critical juncture where a move has to be made ASAP.
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