Game of the Week
Louisiana-Lafayette (4-4) at Arkansas State (2-5) , 3:30 EST, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: There was so much hope and promise for both teams coming into the season. They had experience, dangerous playmakers, and the potential to challenge for the Sun Belt title. But Arkansas State had a tough schedule while Louisiana-Lafayette politely bowed out of the race over the last two weeks in tough losses to bad FAU and FIU teams. However, the Ragin’ Cajuns still have time to turn things around with the big boys of the conference, Middle Tennessee and Troy, still to play, but forget about a bowl game unless the team wins its final four games and finishes 8-4, and even then it might be a stretch. For now, a winning season would be a positive for either team.
Why Louisiana-Lafayette might win: The ASU offense simply isn’t working. Even with a QB like Corey Leonard and a running back like Reggie Arnold to rely on, the Red Wolves are only averaging 24 points per game and that’s with a 61-point performance against Mississippi Valley State in the equation. The running game hasn’t been consistent enough, and while the passing game is putting up numbers, it’s not efficient enough. On the other side of the ball, ULL’s offensive line should be able to dominate. It’s tied for the nation’s lead in sacks allowed giving up just four on the year. But while the O line is playing well …
Why Arkansas State might win: … the ULL defensive front has been a disaster. The pass rush is among the worst in America and there’s no push whatsoever into the backfield against the run. As much as ASU is struggling, Leonard is still a major-league Sun Belt playmaker who should finally flourish with time to work. It’s not like the Ragin’ Cajun offense is humming, and it should have problems against the Sun Belt’s best defense. ASU doing a great job against the run and is allowing fewer than 20 points per game.
Who to watch: Leonard is at his best when he’s allowed to be a baller. When he has to work to try to make things happen against a certain type of defense, he’s not quite the same. When he’s asked to go out and make something happen, he’s tremendous. He kept ASU in the game against Louisville with 303 yards passing and pushed Iowa with 216 yards through the air with two touchdowns. He threw for 275 yards and five scores two years ago in a win over ULL, and he threw for 235 yards and a score in last year’s loss. If ASU is going to win, he’s going to be the reason.
What will happen: Neither team puts up big numbers, but Leonard will be fantastic with time to operate and Reggie Arnold will run for more than 100 yards.
CFN Prediction: Arkansas State 34 … Louisiana-Lafayette 23 ...
Line: Arkansas State -7
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) …
2
Florida Atlantic (2-5) at UAB (3-5),2:00 EST, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: Until it’s no longer mathematically possible, both Florida Atlantic and UAB will be striving toward .500 seasons, which would be an achievement in Boca Raton and Birmingham, respectively. The Owls had their two-game winning streak snapped a week ago, losing to Middle Tennessee State, 27-20, and losing long-time starting QB Rusty Smith to a shoulder injury. They held a lead in the final quarter, but couldn’t hold on or rally in the final minutes. The Blazers are emboldened by last week’s 38-33 win in El Paso, an upset of UTEP and a rare road win that ended a two-game losing streak. Still alive in Conference USA East at 3-2, UAB has a chance to win back-to-back games for the first time in four years.
Why Florida Atlantic might win: Smith’s successor, Jeff Van Camp, is a fourth-year junior, who should be able to keep the offense humming, especially versus UAB. The Blazers rank 117th nationally in total D and have had no answers in pass defense. Even if the Owls lean a little more heavily on talented RB Alfred Morris, they’ll still look to get the ball in the hands of top pass-catchers, WR Chris Bonner and TE Jason Harmon, provided a hip injury doesn’t keep him on the shelf. There’s a level of balance in this attack that’s going to vex the UAB defenders.
Why UAB might win: Joe Webb vs. Smith shaped up as a really interesting battle of senior quarterbacks. Webb vs. Van Camp could be a one-sided affair. The multi-dimensional Blazer hurler continues to hoist the team on his back, week after week. Now the nation’s No.8 rusher at 122 yards a game, he’s like a nimble fullback, with the ability to drop back and hit receivers Frantrell Forrest and Jeffery Anderson. Florida Atlantic’s 116th-ranked run defense figures to be no match for Webb, even though it knows exactly what’s coming.
Who to watch: Van Camp may be a junior, but he’s also very green. UAB would like to rattle him from the opening drive, putting doubt in his mind. Since the Blazers don’t have the cover guys to blitz much, it’ll be incumbent upon DE Bryant Turner to get off the snap quickly and at least rush throws. The junior has had a good season so far, leading the school with 7.5 tackles for loss and five sacks.
What will happen: Look for both offenses to dominate in Birmingham, but Webb to walk out of Legion Field with game MVP honors. UAB is confident after last weekend’s victory, and has a singular figure that the rest of the squad has rallied around. If Webb gets the ball in the final minutes with a chance to win, he’ll will the Blazers to the finish line if it’s necessary.
CFN Prediction: UAB 33 … Florida Atlantic 28 ...
Line: UAB -4.5
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) …
1
ULM (4-4) at North Texas (2-6) , 4:00 EST, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: ULM was in the hunt for the Sun Belt title until struggling last week at Troy in a 42-21 loss. Now it’s going to be a struggle to get back in the race needing the Trojans to choke, even though they’ve been clearly the Sun Belt’s best team, and ULM has to win out. While the lightweights of the conference are up over the next two weeks, with WKU to play next week, North Texas might have finally gotten things together. No, beating WKU is no reason to do cartwheels, but the offense finally did what it was supposed to do with 68 points and close to 600 yards of offense in last week’s win. But again, that was WKU. Beating ULM would show that the program might be turning around.
Why ULM might win: North Texas can’t play defense, and now it’ll be without star LB Toby Nwgiwe, who’s out for the year with a foot injury. The D has gotten worse and worse as the season has gone on with the line doing nothing and the pass defense not coming up with enough plays. ULM’s offense isn’t a juggernaut, but it can run. Defensively, the Warhawks are a rock against the run allowing fewer than 100 yards per game.
Why North Texas might win: ULM’s secondary gives up a ton of yards. It’s not awful overall, but it’s allowing 262 yards per game despite generating a decent pass rush. Outside of a nice performance against Arkansas State, ULM has given up a ton of yards and too many points over the last month. North Texas, for all its problems, can put points on the board leading the Sun Belt with 30.75 per game. The Mean Green D might give it up, but the O can put up numbers, too.
Who to watch: If the UNT program is ever going to be back into Sun Belt title contention, it needs Riley Dodge, the son of head coach Todd Dodge, to be special. The redshirt freshman has had his moments this year, throwing for 313 yards against Middle Tennessee and running well at times, and after missing the Troy game, he came back roaring against Western Kentucky completing 24-of-30 passes for 262 yards and four touchdowns and ran for 70 yards and three scores. Again, ULM isn’t WKU, but Dodge needs to have similar success.
What will happen: North Texas is going to find life much harder this week against the ULM defense. The Warhawks will hold up against the run while it’ll pound away for more than 250 yards on the ground.
CFN Prediction: ULM 30 … North Texas 17 ...
Line: North Texas -1.5
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) …
1.5
FIU (2-6) at Middle Tennessee (5-3), 4:30 EST, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: Middle Tennessee might be in trouble in the Sun Belt title hunt losing to Troy 31-7 a few weeks ago, but this appears to be the second best team in the conference, or close to it behind ULM, and now it gets a three-game home stretch to pad the record. It took a home run dash from Dwight Dasher to put away Florida Atlantic last week, and now it has to keep the offense going against a FIU team coming off a nice 20-17 overtime win over Louisiana-Lafayette. FIU has been playing better even at 2-6, and with North Texas coming up next, it has a shot to go on a decent run if it can upset the Blue Raiders. The Golden Panthers need to get their wins in now with a date at Florida still to deal with.
Why FIU might win: FIU can throw the ball. Paul McCall hasn’t been consistent, and he’s not efficient, but he puts up yards with FIU averaging 244 yards per game. Middle Tennessee has been solid defensively all season long, but it struggled last week against Florida Atlantic and Rusty Smith allowing 304 yards and two touchdowns, and allowed 73 yards to Jeff Van Camp for a total of 377 yards allowed. The only chance FIU has is to bomb away, and McCall has to be on. He threw for 223 yards and a score in last week’s stunning win over the Blue Raiders.
Why Middle Tennessee might win: Turnovers. FIU has turned the ball over way too regularly. The offense has given away eight interceptions and eight fumbles, with three fumbles lost against Louisiana-Lafayette, while the defense hasn’t done enough to take the ball away. Middle Tennessee leads the Sun Belt in turnover margin, and with an offense that’s averaging 400 yards per game and is far better than FIU’s, the last thing it needs is to win the turnover battle. The Blue Raiders will be at least +2.
Who to watch: T.Y. Hilton has to get healthy. The star FIU wide receiver was one of the breakout stars of 2008 catching 41 passes for 1,103 yards and seven touchdowns. This year he has caught 44 passes, but for only 462 yards and four scores. He was hot early on with 34 grabs in the first four games, highlighted by an 11-catch, 117-yard, one touchdown day against ULM. Unable to shake a knee injury, he has been trying to play but hasn’t been right. The offense desperately needs him to be right, and he’s expected to be close.
What will happen: The FIU offense has some pop if Hilton is right, but Middle Tennessee is too good in too many areas to blow the home game. The pressure from the Blue Raider defensive front will make the difference.
CFN Prediction: Middle Tennessee 28 … FIU 13 ...
Line: MTSU -13
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) …
1.5
Troy (6-2) at Western Kentucky (2-6) , 5:00 EST, Saturday, November 7
Why to watch: If you want to measure the difference between the best team in the Sun Belt and the worst, this is it. Troy is humming on all cylinders winning six in a row with an offense that’s blowing everyone out of the water. On the flip side is Western Kentucky, who’s having a disastrous first season at the FBS level as a full member losing all eight games in a 16-game losing streak. WKU is trying to find something to build on for next year and needs something, anything positive to get excited about, while Troy is looking to get in, get out, and move on to bigger and better things. The Trojans face Arkansas next week before closing out against FAU and ULL.
Why Troy might win: The Trojans could hang 80 if they want to. They’re roaring on offense scoring 42 against FIU, 50 against North Texas, and 42 against ULM over the last three weeks, and haven’t scored fewer than 30 points over the last five games. Meanwhile, WKU has the nation’s worst defense and has no prayer whatsoever with no pass rush, little production from the linebackers, and not enough pop in the offense to keep up. The Hilltoppers have given up 130 points over the last two games … uh oh.
Why Western Kentucky might win: The only chance WKU has of keeping this close is to hope for Troy to be looking ahead to the Arkansas game. The running game isn’t all that bad, ranking third in the conference averaging 169 yards per game helped by QB Kawaun Jakes, who’s coming off a big day against North Texas. Troy gives up big yards through the air, and while WKU can’t throw, it should have a little bit of success if Jakes plays like he played last week throwing for 127 yards and two scores.
Who to watch: Boris Lee is being Boris Lee again. While he hasn’t had a Sun Belt Player of the Year type of season. The Troy linebacker is playing better with a team-leading 58 tackles on the year and coming off a 14-stop day against ULM. When he’s on, he’s a special playmaker who makes all the difference as the leader and star of a defense that’s having a down year. However, this week he should put up huge numbers as WKU tries to short the game with its running attack.
What will happen: Troy can call its shot. It’ll end this by halftime and will pull its foot off the gas halfway through the third quarter.
CFN Prediction: Troy 65 … Western Kentucky 20 ...
Line: Troy -24
Must See Rating: (By The People 5 … The Men Who Stare At Goats 1) …
1.5
http://cfn.scout.com/2/916758.html
That never gets old.
