After tonight's action, we started talking about NCAA Tournament possibilities. From a discussion on the North Texas messageboard, a little speculation I'd like to hear thoughts about from general SBC fans.

Quote:Let's say that Western wins out and loses in the finals of the SBC Tournament.

They'll be 22-7 at the end of the regular season. At the end of the tournament, they'd be 24-8. The "good" losses against Florida State, Mississippi State, Houston, Evansville (a strong MVC contender), and the SBC Tournament champ. The "bad" losses against Murray State, FIU, and Denver.

Given that they just made a very memorable Sweet 16 run last year... Is that enough of a resume to get them an at-large bid? Their current RPI is 61.

Or, let's say that UALR wins out and loses in the finals of the SBC Tournament.

They'll be 23-6 at the end of the regular season. At the end of the tournament, they' be 25-7. "Good" losses against Memphis, WKU, and the SBC champ. A loss to Wright State could end up in either category, depending on how the Raiders close out their season. "Bad" losses against Missouri State (a respectable name in a down year), Rice, and Troy (improved, but probably not a respectable loss from the NCAA committee perspective unless they win the SBC Tournament).

Would UALR have any shot at all of an at-large bid? Their RPI is just over 100 and likely to drop even with another win over WKU.

I think UALR is probably a pipe dream... But if Western Kentucky wins out and goes deep in the tournament, they might just be able to make us a 2 bid tournament league for the second year in a row.

NO.

(02-12-2009 10:42 PM)galojah Wrote:  NO.

Emphatically put. :)

I think UALR is going to have to win the conference tournament to go to the NCAA Tournament. WKU has a chance if they when every game and lose in the conference finals, but it'll be a long shot.

(02-13-2009 02:38 AM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote:  I think UALR is going to have to win the conference tournament to go to the NCAA Tournament. WKU has a chance if they when every game and lose in the conference finals, but it'll be a long shot.

I felt exactly the same way, but hearing a WKU fan so adamantly reject the possibility was quite a surprise.

Anyway... There may be too many bids tied up in the Big East/Big 10/ACC this year for any longshot that doesn't already have an at-large history to even show up on the radar.

(02-13-2009 03:17 AM)thetastygreek Wrote:  

(02-13-2009 02:38 AM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote:  I think UALR is going to have to win the conference tournament to go to the NCAA Tournament. WKU has a chance if they when every game and lose in the conference finals, but it'll be a long shot.

I felt exactly the same way, but hearing a WKU fan so adamantly reject the possibility was quite a surprise.

Anyway... There may be too many bids tied up in the Big East/Big 10/ACC this year for any longshot that doesn't already have an at-large history to even show up on the radar.

You're probably right. WKU has a pretty high RPI though, and if they keep winning, I think they have a chance to crack into the big dance. It'll be interesting to see how the rest of the season pans out.

(02-13-2009 03:33 AM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote:  

(02-13-2009 03:17 AM)thetastygreek Wrote:  

(02-13-2009 02:38 AM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote:  I think UALR is going to have to win the conference tournament to go to the NCAA Tournament. WKU has a chance if they when every game and lose in the conference finals, but it'll be a long shot.

I felt exactly the same way, but hearing a WKU fan so adamantly reject the possibility was quite a surprise.

Anyway... There may be too many bids tied up in the Big East/Big 10/ACC this year for any longshot that doesn't already have an at-large history to even show up on the radar.

You're probably right. WKU has a pretty high RPI though, and if they keep winning, I think they have a chance to crack into the big dance. It'll be interesting to see how the rest of the season pans out.

If we beat Troy, UALR, and MTSU all on the road and lost in the finals (not a likely scenario) we might have a shot at being on the bubble, but not very likely at all. That would be quite a tear. And even then we probably don't get in.

The Sunbelt will have to win more non conference games to get multiple bids. Its as simple as that. We lost too many non conference games, FIU was a bad loss. No one will care that it was the one week they were completely healthy. Denver was a bad loss. No one will care that its extremely hard to play AT Denver (and none of the top teams would have the guts or inclination to go there).

We have had to many bad losses for an at large bid. The only way WKU will get in is to win the conference tournament.:muttering:

(02-13-2009 07:01 AM)TOPPERTOM Wrote:  We have had to many bad losses for an at large bid. The only way WKU will get in is to win the conference tournament.:muttering:

Exactly.

I've done several years of a selection committee "simulation" and several years of being a "bubble" team to know we don't stand a chance. RPI isn't everything folks, and even if it was, 60's is not good enough. If we were sitting in the 40s I might buy into the "chance".

We have 20+ pt loses to Evansville, Murray and Mississippi State. We have a loss to FIU (under .500 team).

We do have some good wins too, SIU and Louisville. Georgia obviously is not that great of a win anymore.

(02-13-2009 07:51 AM)galojah Wrote:  

(02-13-2009 07:01 AM)TOPPERTOM Wrote:  We have had to many bad losses for an at large bid. The only way WKU will get in is to win the conference tournament.:muttering:

Exactly.

I've done several years of a selection committee "simulation" and several years of being a "bubble" team to know we don't stand a chance. RPI isn't everything folks, and even if it was, 60's is not good enough. If we were sitting in the 40s I might buy into the "chance".

We have 20+ pt loses to Evansville, Murray and Mississippi State. We have a loss to FIU (under .500 team).

We do have some good wins too, SIU and Louisville. Georgia obviously is not that great of a win anymore.

Georgia is still a top 100 team aren't they? Don't you think that your run in the tourney last year would help?

(02-13-2009 08:21 PM)Paul of Troy Wrote:  

(02-13-2009 07:51 AM)galojah Wrote:  

(02-13-2009 07:01 AM)TOPPERTOM Wrote:  We have had to many bad losses for an at large bid. The only way WKU will get in is to win the conference tournament.:muttering:

Exactly.

I've done several years of a selection committee "simulation" and several years of being a "bubble" team to know we don't stand a chance. RPI isn't everything folks, and even if it was, 60's is not good enough. If we were sitting in the 40s I might buy into the "chance".

We have 20+ pt loses to Evansville, Murray and Mississippi State. We have a loss to FIU (under .500 team).

We do have some good wins too, SIU and Louisville. Georgia obviously is not that great of a win anymore.

Georgia is still a top 100 team aren't they? Don't you think that your run in the tourney last year would help?

No. I really don't think they look at that.

Look, here is the breakdown. There are 65 NCAA berths. There are 32 automatic conference champions. That leaves 33 at larges. The Big Six champions would likely have gotten an at large even if they didn't win thier tourny's (although I'll allow for one upset where a BCS team outside of the RPI top 40 gets an auto-bid.) That means you realistically have to have top 38 rpi or so to have any chance (USA had slightly higher last year, but they had 3 wins against the rpi top 50).

WKU does not have any more chances to get wins against top 50 teams. If I'm not mistaken Louisville is our only top 50 win.

If I'm not mistaken 32 is the magic number in rpi (no team has been left out with rpi of 32 or better). Short of that it would be hard to get in with only 1 win against the top 50. Jumping about 30 spots in the rpi just isn't going to happen. There just isn't any way. I wish there was.

Sunbelt teams (WKU included) just need to win more non conference games. Then everything will take care of itself.

Georgia is win-less in the SEC. They fired their coach mid-season. That is not a good win.

Selection committee does not look at previous years. It is what you've done THIS year.

No. The out-of-conference records, and the pathetic RPIs of every team in the conference, ensure there will be just one Sun Belt team in this year's tournament.