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RECAPPING WEEK SEVEN: BCS Analysis, Top 25, and More...
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3rd Wise Man Offline
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RECAPPING WEEK SEVEN: BCS Analysis, Top 25, and More...
DOWN GOES #1!!! AGAIN!!!

-Kentucky overcame a 13 point second half deficit against LSU to force overtime. After looking very accident prone in their previous week’s game against South Carolina, I didn’t think Kentucky had much of a chance at all. In triple overtime, Kentucky scored a touchdown to take a 43-37 lead, but failed on the two point conversion attempt. That gave Florida a chance to win, but they couldn’t get into the end zone and Kentucky racked up one of the biggest wins in school history. It’s big for very many reasons. For starters, beating a #1 team is always huge. Beating a #1 team in conference is even bigger. Beating a #1 team and going to the top of the East Division standings is even bigger. Kentucky is up to #8 in the rankings, and has the chance to move up much higher than that. Their aren’t all that many unbeatens left, and it appears it's very possible that we will not end up with more than one by the time everything is settled. I think this win moves Kentucky pretty close to the front of the line when it comes to the teams with one loss. South Carolina might be ahead of them, but the Wildcats are very much in the BCS picture and possibly even the national title picture. The only problem is that finishing the season with just one loss will be no easy feat. Kentucky hosts Florida next week. This is the same Florida team who went into LSU and nearly upset the Tigers. The Gators are also still in the race to win the East Division and advance to the SEC Title game.


DOWN GOES #2!!!

-The Florida loss meant California was poised to go to the top of the rankings with a win over Oregon State. Perhaps they did a little too much celebrating before the game started, because they were upset by the Beavers in what was probably a more surprising result than Kentucky’s win over LSU. Kevin Riley played a great game for Cal in his first start as a quarterback, but his brain really went on vacation in the final minute of the game. Cal was down a field goal and well within field goal range, which would have tied it and sent it to overtime. After the pocket fell apart in the final seconds, Riley opted to run the ball instead of throwing it away. He was tackled and the game ended, along with Cal’s perfect season. It really is unfortunate because that one boneheaded play overshadowed what was a rather impressive performance by a first time starter.


NOW LOOK AT THE RANKINGS!!!

-Ohio State and South Florida both blew out their opponents and now sit atop the BCS Rankings. Boston College is actually ahead of South Florida in the rankings, but the computers like South Florida much better. They’ll probably also continue to like South Florida better seeing as how the teams USF has played are generally fairing better than BC’s opponents. If you look at the rankings, it’s obvious Boston College is not a unanimous #2. They are 42 points higher in the Harris poll, which isn’t much at all, and they are 63 points ahead in the Coaches poll. Because fewer coaches vote, the 63 point lead in the coaches poll is actually about twice the size as the 42 point lead in the Harris poll as far as the BCS is concerned, but neither lead is unanimous and neither is currently big enough to offset the computers.

I’m getting ahead of myself, but what is interesting is that if Boston College is ranked #2 in the polls, but doesn’t make the national championship game, they can still win a share of the national championship. If #3 South Florida were to defeat Ohio State, BC would probably end up #1 in the AP poll and South Florida would end up automatically winning the coaches poll (the coaches have to vote for the winner of the BCS Title Game). I know I’m way ahead of myself, but I did want to mention it at this point in time because I probably won’t get to next week. The way this season has gone #1 is not secure. It’s week eight, and we’ve had three different #1s. California was virtually a #1 for the few hours between the end of the LSU vs Kentucky game and the end of the Oregon State vs Cal game. That’s four #1s. We’re averaging a new #1 every two weeks. With that being said…


YOU PROBABLY DIDN’T REALIZE THIS WAS IMPORTANT

-Virginia knocked Connecticut from the ranks of the unbeaten with a 17-16 win in what was a really good game. UVA has now won six straight, and is now into the polls at #24. This is big because Connecticut’s perfect season came to an end, but it’s also important because Boston College and South Florida are neck and neck in the BCS Standings. The voters like Virginia much more than Connecticut, and that probably won’t change. Therefore, some may be more impressed later on if BC beats Virginia. The computers also like Virginia better now. South Florida still has the edge in the computers, but this could potentially close the gap somewhat. Virginia is ranked #16 or higher in all but one of the computers, and that ranking will most likely improve as the season goes on. The two aren’t scheduled to play, but could possibly meet in the ACC Title game.




HAWAII IS STILL UNBEATEN…BUT SO WHAT??

-Hawaii, the other unbeaten, needed to overcome a 21 point second half deficit against San Jose State in order to force overtime and win. San Jose State is one of the better teams Hawaii has played, but they are nowhere near a top 25 caliber team. I haven’t been putting Hawaii in my top 25 and have no plans to do so this week.

I don’t want to name names, but I am familiar with some of the AP writers who vote. When asked what exactly it is that impresses them about Hawaii, they always mention that they’re unbeaten. I don’t get it. I’m not a voter and probably won’t ever be one, but going unbeaten against weak teams is not impressive. If Hawaii is going to play weak teams, they should at least win by a commanding margin, and they’re not even doing that all of the time. Twice they’ve needed overtime to win against a team with a losing record. If they beat Boise State and roll up Washington, then I’ll give them some credit, but I honestly don’t see them beating either one of those teams.


MORE WEEK SEVEN ACTION

-Boise State won a crazy game on Sunday night that went into multiple overtimes. I really expected them to win rather easily and didn’t really see much of the game. It must have been wild. It’s a testament to the defense (or lack thereof) that exists in the WAC. It seems like every WAC game I’ve seen this year has at least one team scoring more than 40 points. In the case of Boise State vs Nevada, both teams scored over 60 points.

-I believe South Florida just scored another touchdown against UCF.

What has happened to UCF?? They looked great against Texas and I thought they’d be a force in Conference USA. They came unraveled, especially on defense, last week against East Carolina. East Carolina is a decent team, but they just made UCF’s defense look like swiss cheese in the second half. South Florida picked up right where they left off. Their third string was marching up and down the field against UCF, which is a team that looks much worse now than they did in the first three weeks.

-Cincinnati had a huge week in the computers. Oregon State defeated California, several unbeatens were beaten, and Rutgers won. Miami, OH even won a game. There was just one problem, Cincinnati ended up losing. It’s unfortunate because this is a team without a lot of tradition that’s really trying to build itself up into a national caliber program. Not even the voters were giving them all that much love, but it looked like this would be the week they’d break out if for no other reason than the computers would have given them a big push in the new BCS Standings. The Bearcats turned it over twice in the red zone against Louisville, and that was all the help the Cardinals needed to pick up the 28-24 win. It was a big win for Louisville that puts them back in control of their own destiny as far as winning the Big East is concerned. It’s also the best game the Cardinals have played all year, so it finally looks like they’re moving in the right direction. They need to move a lot further and get their a lot quicker if they want to win the Big East, but at least they’re pointed in the right direction now.

-Oklahoma State made Nebraska look really bad in a 45-14 romping. This is the third team that’s made Nebraska look really bad. With that kind of data, an analysis I conducted concludes that Nebraska, is in fact, really bad.

-Purdue was beaten handily for the second straight week. Michigan is now playing the kind of football everyone expected them to back in August. What’s funny is that they’ve continued to sneak up on people. Appalachian State may have knocked them out of the national championship picture, but they seemed to have helped them out as far as the Big Ten is concerned. It seems as though teams continue to look past the Wolverines, and the Wolverines just keep winning.

-Iowa knocked off Illinois 10-6, which gives the Illini their first conference loss. Iowa had a chance to win at the end, but had a touchdown called back after a penalty and ended up throwing an interception shortly after that.

-Wisconsin was blown out by Penn State 39-7. They’ve gone from being ranked #5 to being out of the polls in just two weeks. They did their best to match Michigan’s drop from #5 to unranked, but the Wolverines were able to ‘accomplish’ that feat in just one week after losing to Appy State.

-USC trailed going into the fourth quarter at home against Arizona, but held on to win 20-13. USC is very talented, but I continue to be less and less impressed with them as the season goes on.

-Temple defeated Akron 24-20. I don’t remember the last time Temple won back to back games. Akron was one of the favorites to win the league, and now they’ve lost to Temple at home.

-BYU defeated UNLV 24-14, which puts them all alone in first place in the Mountain West. Wyoming had been playing outstanding football, but forgot to show up this week in a 20-3 loss to New Mexico. I never really thought much of New Mexico, but they’re 4-2 on the year now and appear to be on pace to make a bowl.


MY TOP 25, WHICH HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE BCS

1. Ohio State
2. South Florida
3. LSU
4. Boston College
5. Oklahoma
6. South Carolina
7. Kentucky
8. West Virginia
9. California
10. Oregon
11. USC
12. Florida
13. Kansas
14. Missouri
15. Auburn
16. Kansas State
17. Virginia Tech
18. Cincinnati
19. Virginia
20. Texas
21. Texas Tech
22. Michigan
23. Georgia
24. Tennessee
25. Boise State

-...and I think South Florida has just scored again...
10-15-2007 07:54 PM
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Post: #2
RE: RECAPPING WEEK SEVEN: BCS Analysis, Top 25, and More...
Why do you think the Sooners are better than the Gamecocks? JOOC
10-15-2007 09:19 PM
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3rd Wise Man Offline
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Post: #3
RE: RECAPPING WEEK SEVEN: BCS Analysis, Top 25, and More...
oklahoma's resume isn't as impressive as south carolina's, but oklahoma has just looked better at the times i've seen them play. something about south carolina's offense just doesn't strike me as being top notch. their team and coaching is collectively top notch, but their offense is a liability. i've just seen them struggle more than i've seen oklahoma struggle. granted, when oklahoma struggled they lost to an unranked, barely bowl caliber team, but all and all i just think oklahoma would beat south carolina if the two were to play.
10-16-2007 12:03 AM
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