RECAPPING WEEK 5: BCS Analysis, Top 25, and More
I’ve heard a lot of people say that this season, and specifically this past week is “the season of upsets in college football.” My only question is whether this is the season of upsets, or if it’s the season of the very inaccurate preseason Top 25.
South Florida was one of the 15 best teams when the season began even though they weren’t ranked. We had no way of knowing it until we saw them take the field a few times, but their preseason ranking (or lack thereof) did not indicate how good of a team they really were. When they beat Auburn most were calling it an upset. In reality, it was at best an evenly matched game and more probable that the Bulls are a better team at Auburn and would win the majority of the time. That’s not an upset.
Kentucky’s win over Louisville wasn’t an upset either. After seeing what those two teams have done since that game it’s amazing that Louisville kept it as close as they did and actually had a chance to win.
In saying that, there were some pretty big shockers this past week:
RECAP
-Oklahoma had blown out everyone they’d faced this season, including an up and coming Miami, FL team and a pretty good Tulsa team who they beat on the road. They opened conference play on the road against a Colorado team that barely got past Colorado State in their opener. Although they had obviously improved since that game, there was no reason to expect them to beat the Sooners…but they did. They overcame a 24-7 deficit to kick a game winning field goal as time expired.
The commentators after the game were comparing it to the Fiesta Bowl loss to Boise State. It’s not even close. Boise State was a top ten team, whereas Colorado looks like they might make the Independence Bowl. The Buffalos did play a good game and could end up turning it around, but they still don’t look anywhere nearly as good as last year’s Boise State team. This game was much more shocking even if it wasn’t played on as big a stage.
-Oklahoma’s Red River rival Texas also went down over the weekend. I think this is more of a case of Texas being overrated than it is a case of an upset. Kansas State lost their season opener at Auburn, but played very well and had a chance to win. They’ve also looked very good since then. Texas, while unbeaten, struggled to get past Arkansas State and UCF. Nothing against those teams, but they aren’t the types of teams you would expect the #7 team in the nation to struggle against. Kansas State didn’t just beat Texas, they beat them handily 41-21. So much so that I’m convinced they are a better football team than Texas. Rankings be damned.
-Maryland took down Rutgers 34-24 and although Rutgers had the ball late with a chance to win, it was a game that Maryland controlled. This was surprising because I thought Rutgers was much better than Maryland, but apparently they aren’t, and there is really no good reason to think that they are. Rutgers’s wins have come against Buffalo, Navy and Norfolk State. Maryland would easily be 3-0 against that same schedule, whereas Rutgers may have lost two games had they traded schedules with the Terps.
-Auburn got a huge win against Florida in what is probably their biggest win since defeating the Gators a year ago. Florida has LSU next week, and if they were to win that game they’d most likely be first in the line out of all the one-loss teams to make the BCS Title Game.
-Clemson had really looked like gangbusters so far this season, but their offense was completely immobile against Georgia Tech. Clemson fell from the ranks of the unbeaten, and Georgia Tech took a big step toward making either the Gator Bowl or Chick Fil-A Bowl. If Boston College goes on to win the ACC, then I believe that Clemson and Georgia Tech will be the two teams that those two bowls are most interested in.
-Boston College struggled to put away FCS Massachusetts, but held on 24-14. UMass lost to Appalachian State in the FCS Championship game last year, so they aren’t exactly pushovers, but one would expect a top ten team to beat them more handily than that.
-Wisconsin knocked off Michigan State in a 37-34 thriller. Wisconsin may be ranked a little too high, whereas Michigan State is probably a little too low. It would have been a huge statement win for the Spartans, who began the season unranked and without high expectations. This would have gotten them a top ten win on the road against a conference frontrunner. In saying that, Wisconsin may not be a conference frontrunner for long. Then again, no one in the Big Ten really looks to be completely solid. Ohio State, another unbeaten, struggled with Minnesota more than expected
OTHER ACTION
-The game of the day lived up to its billing. California went in to Oregon and managed to pick up a huge victory. Oregon had a chance to tie the game in the final minute, but fumbled the ball through the end zone, which was ruled a touchback and gave Cal the ball on their own 20. They were able to run out the clock and sustain a 31-24 victory. Those of you who live in the east and have DirecTV missed most of the first quarter. I called them up in a panic and was told it must be some sort of error on their part. Shortly after that, the feed of the game began coming through.
-This may be hard to believe, but Illinois is a good team. They’ve won four games in a row and have improved each week. This past week, they took down Penn State, which improves them to 2-0 in Big Ten play. They are also a fun football team to watch if you haven’t had the chance to check them out yet. They are just one fluke play away from being undefeated as well.
-Virginia won big over Pittsburgh, which is their fourth straight win. The Cavs are under the radar, but expect them to be a force in the ACC.
-Connecticut blew out Akron to stay among the unbeaten. This is clearly their most impressive win. Akron is likely a bowl caliber team (albeit not a major bowl caliber team), and Connecticut just pummeled them. They appear to be much better than the team that struggled against Temple earlier this season. They aren’t ranked yet, and I can’t say that they really deserve to be, but they will get their chance if they can knock off some conference foes.
-Hawaii continues to win big against poor teams. Hawaii has only played one team that’s won a game against an FBS team, and that’s UNLV. Nearly all of the 64 teams that will play in bowls this year would have Hawaii’s same record if they played that schedule up until this point. They beat Idaho handily 48-20, but that’s hardly impressive. I think they’re ranking is an inflation more than anything else. The teams ahead of them lose because they’re playing tougher competition, and Hawaii moves up by default. It’s very likely that they will default their way right into a BCS bowl.
-Syracuse followed up their big road win against Louisville with a loss to Miami, OH. I’m not even going to try and analyze that. Louisville got a win at NC State. After a team loses to Syracuse, any win becomes a big win. Their loss to Syracuse looked bad last week, but Syracuse actually made it look even worse this week. Congrats to Syracuse…I guess…for making an improbable win look even more improbable.
-Duke actually gave Miami, FL a game. Maybe Duke isn’t as bad as they thought they were. Granted, they aren’t good, but perhaps they wouldn’t struggle against the majority of div2 teams like I originally thought.
-Kent State got a much needed win on the road against Ohio, which keeps their divisional championship and bowl hopes alive. They’ve already lost a big game to Akron, which means they don’t have the tiebreaker. Although it was the conference opener for Ohio, it is their second straight loss and it really hurts their bowl chances.
-East Carolina got their biggest win of the season in a 37-35 thriller on the road against Houston. Many were picking Houston to win the West as well as the whole conference. They could still do that, and it’s a good thing for them that ECU is in the East, so this doesn’t impact their tiebreaker. The game seesawed back and fourth and after an offensive display in the first three quarters, neither team managed a point in the fourth quarter. After a rough start for Houston QB Case Keenum, Blake Joseph came off the bench and played out of his mind. He was 24-for-29 passing for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns. It wasn’t enough to get the Cougars the win, though.
-BYU defeated New Mexico 31-24 in an adequate, but not overly impressive showing. The Cougars are 2-0 in league play, but Wyoming, who appears to be immerging as the other contender, has yet to play a conference game.
-Navy got their biggest win of the season against Air Force 31-20. It was an impressive showing for the Midshipmen, considering they really hadn’t had one up until this point. This all but assures them the Commander-and-Chief Trophy and puts them well on pace to earn that bid in the Poinsettia Bowl. Air Force, who started off 3-0 and appeared to really be going places after their big win against TCU, has not won since.
-Cincinnati also remains unbeaten after pounding San Diego State 52-23. I don’t think there were 100 people in the stadium in the final minutes of the game.
YOU MAY NOT HAVE REALIZED…
-Cincinnati now has the third longest active winning streak at eight games. They are behind Wisconsin (14) and LSU (12).
-South Florida, Rutgers, Kentucky and Cincinnati are all in the Top 25. Kentucky and South Florida are actually in the top ten. As recently as two years ago if anyone had said that all four of those teams would be ranked at the same time you would have probably been sent to a home somewhere. Rutgers had a breakout season last year, but prior to that I none of those teams had been in the polls at all since Kentucky was last ranked in 1984.
MY TOP 25, WHICH HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE BCS
1. USC
2. LSU
3. Ohio State
4. California
5. South Florida
6. Boston College
7. Oklahoma
8. Florida
9. West Virginia
10. Kentucky
11. Oregon
12. Wisconsin
13. Georgia
14. Kansas State
15. Missouri
16. South Carolina
17. Texas
18. Cincinnati
19. Arizona State
20. Illinois
21. Kansas
22. Purdue
23. Clemson
24. Rutgers
25. Auburn
-If I could vote for 26 teams, Connecticut would be my 26th.
-Hawaii is not on the list. The reason for that is because instead of calling this the top 25, I could just as easily call it “25 teams that would be favored to beat Hawaii.”
(This post was last modified: 10-01-2007 10:22 AM by 3rd Wise Man.)
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