WEEK THREE RECAP: BCS Notes, Analysis and Top 25
NON-BCS CONTENDERS
-The pool of candidates from non-BCS conferences is dwindling. Hawaii is still alive and kicking after a convincing road win against UNLV. Coming into this week the WAC had no OOC wins against FBS teams, which would have acted as a big deadweight in the computer portion of the polls down the stretch. New Mexico State, Boise State and Nevada all managed to beat FBS teams this weekend, though.
-Air Force, a team that no one was really all that high on to start the season, is really playing well. Most of the people still aren’t high on them because they are barely receiving votes in either poll, but the Falcons are 3-0 with big conference wins over Utah and TCU. TCU had been ranked earlier this year, and still appears to be one of the 25 best, although it may be awhile before they play their way back into the rankings. Utah ended up blowing out UCLA this week, and Air Force beat Utah at Utah just a week ago. The Falcons have another big test next week when they travel to BYU, who lost in a shootout at Tulsa last week.
-Tulsa has passed their first two tests and will host Oklahoma next week. It should be a great atmosphere in Tulsa. In many ways playing Oklahoma while unbeaten might generate the same enthusiasm as playing in a BCS Bowl. It’s still a very tall order and they have a competitive Conference USA to contend with after that. Oklahoma’s offense has been amazing, and Tulsa’s defense has struggled.
-Honorable mention must go out to Central Florida, who gave Texas all they wanted. Texas scored ten points at the end of the half on what may be considered to have been fluke plays, but UCF hung in there and actually got the lead in the fourth quarter 24-23. Texas answered with two touchdowns and ended up holding off UCF 35-32 after recovering an onsides kick. UCF hosts Memphis next week in their conference opener. Hopefully the fans will pack the house. They didn’t beat Texas, but they made a statement, at least to me.
BCS CONFERENCE CONTENDERS
-Someone in the Big East other than Syracuse finally lost games this weekend. Pittsburgh fell on the road against Michigan State in what was a close game. Pitt is a little banged up, so I was expecting them to lose by more than what they did. They even had a chance to win that game at the end, but couldn’t overcome going 0-12 on third down and turning the ball over three times. Michigan State improves to 3-0 with the win.
-Louisville gave up 40 or more points for the second week in a row in their 40-34 loss to Kentucky. The game was one of the most exciting and high stakes games of the day. Kentucky jumped out to an early lead and took advantage of some Louisville turnovers. The Cardinals fought back and got the lead at the half 21-20, and the two seesawed back and fourth after that. Louisville scored a go-ahead touchdown in the final minutes on to gain a 34-33 lead, but missed the two point conversion. Kentucky got the ball, and scored on a 57 yard touchdown play where it looked as if the Louisville defense simply forgot to cover Kentucky receiver Steve Johnson. It was Woodson’s fourth touchdown pass of the day in a game that saw lots of offense on both sides of the ball. Kentucky remains unbeaten on the year and is into the rankings for the first time since I don’t know when.
-Another thriller, for the second year in a row, was Alabama vs Arkansas. Alabama scored a touchdown in the final seconds to give them the win and keep them among the unbeaten. The Tide are much improved from last season. I don’t see them contending for the SEC Title because I don’t think they have what it takes to hang with LSU, but they are a very good team.
-The featured game of the week wasn’t nearly as exciting. USC rolled up Nebraska and remains in the drivers seat to where the home unis at the BCS title game. Two late touchdowns by the Huskers made the score look more competitive than what it actually was.
-Boston College opened the year with three straight conference games, and has won them all, including an impressive looking win against Georgia Tech this past weekend. The ACC might be down, but BC is certainly up. Their next four games are against Army, Massachusetts (a highly ranked FCS team), Bowling Green and Notre Dame. They shouldn’t have any trouble winning those four games, which would put them at 7-0 heading into Virginia Tech.
SURPRISES
-After dogging Duke for losing 22 straight, they managed to defeat Northwestern. It’s their first win against a 1AA/FBS team since 2004. Northwestern was 2-0 coming into this game and although they didn’t look particularly good in either win, one would think they would have beaten Duke. Hell, one would think that anyone with a team would have a chance to beat Duke. In 1985, the Miami Dolphins defeated the Chicago Bears late in the year, which prevented the Bears from joining the 1972 Dolphins as going undefeated and winning the Super Bowl. I do believe this game was the inverse of that. Duke defeated Northwestern, which prevents them from tying Northwestern’s all time losing streak of 34 games.
-Iowa State somehow defeated Iowa. They kicked five field-goals to win 15-13. This is a series where it seems the poorer team wins the majority of the time. Iowa was looking like one of the better teams in the Big Ten, whereas Iowa State had not won a game and had looked so bad that I was beginning to wonder if they’d manage to beat anyone at all this year. They could still end up 1-11 and Iowa could still end up at or near the top of the Big Ten.
-Utah, who is 0-2 and without their starting running back and quarterback for the season, blew out UCLA 44-6. It was never even a game. I thought Utah was going to be a top 25 team this year, but after the injuries I thought they’d be lucky to make a bowl. They’ve already lost a conference game to Air Force, but they could still end up having a big year if they play like they did this past week.
-Mississippi State got a big win at Auburn. This makes South Florida’s win look a little less impressive, but it also makes LSU’s blowout win to open the year a little more impressive.
-Troy blew out Oklahoma State. Suddenly Georgia’s convincing win over Oklahoma State the first week of the year isn’t looking as impressive as it once did. Troy won 41-23, and Okie State was lucky that it was even that close.
-Florida Atlantic defeated Minnesota 42-39 to improve to 2-1 on the season. They face Troy on December 1st, which is a game that is looking like will impact the Sun Belt Title and decide who gets the bid to the New Orleans Bowl.
THE CIRCUITRY OF THE BCS
-There are 30 remaining unbeaten teams, but the maximum number of unbeatens we can possibly have at the end of the season is 9.
-Boston College and Clemson are unbeaten, but will face each other on November 17th. Clemson also ends the year against currently unbeaten South Carolina.
-Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech are all unbeaten, but will all either face each other during the year or during the Big Twelve title game.
-Cincinnati, Connecticut, Rutgers, South Florida and West Virginia are all unbeaten, but will all face each other this season.
-Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Penn State and Wisconsin are all unbeaten. Not all the teams play each other, so it’s possible that two will emerge as unbeaten.
-Air Force is unbeaten and has no unbeaten teams remaining on their schedule.
-Arizona State, California, Oregon and USC are all unbeaten, but will all face each other.
-Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky, Alabama and LSU are all unbeaten, but will all face each other during the regular season or in the SEC title game. South Carolina will also face unbeaten Clemson in their final game of the year.
-Hawaii is unbeaten and has no remaining unbeaten teams on their schedule.
-In looking at the top of the standings, LSU faces Florida on October 6th and Texas faces Oklahoma that same day. Those are the only match-up in the BCS top seven right now (LSU, Florida, USC, Texas, West Virginia, Ohio State, Oklahoma).
Right now LSU and Florida are the top two teams, but that will change as the computers gather more data and become more realistic. Besides, those two teams play each other, which will likely knock one of them out of the BCS Title picture. USC is #3, and they would move right into the top two, and probably be at #1 by the end of the year as long as they keep winning. The computers aren’t likely to offset the voting differential even if someone else other than USC is #1 in the computer polls. Idaho is what is hurting the Trojans in the computers, but that will also be offset as they get into conference play.
West Virginia and Texas will get a big boost once they get into conference play IF they continue to win. That will close the gap in the computers, but I don’t see the voters voting either of those teams ahead of LSU/Florida or USC unless one of those teams loses. The same goes for Ohio State.
-Long story short, we have 30 unbeatens, we could have as many as nine at the end of the year, but the only three teams that truly control their own destiny right now are USC, Florida and LSU. Everyone else needs some help.
YOU MAY NOT HAVE REALIZED….
-Kentucky is 8-1 in their last nine games. Their only loss was to Tennessee last season 17-12 where Kentucky drove it down to the three yard line in the final minute, but couldn’t get it across the goal line.
-Cincinnati is 10-2 in their last twelve games. Their two losses were a close loss at Louisville and a convincing loss at West Virginia last season. They have wins against Rutgers and Oregon State in that stretch. Despite this success Bearcats are not ranked. I’m not so sure the Bearcats have EVER been ranked.
-South Florida is 8-2 in their last ten games, which includes a win at Auburn and at West Virginia.
-Notre Dame has -14 rushing yards for the season. That's an average of -4.667 yards per game. They could rush for zero yards and it would improve their season's average. They have yet to score an offensive touchdown this season. This is the worst Notre Dame team I have ever seen, and I'm not exaggerating.
MY TOP 25, WHICH HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE BCS
1. USC
2. LSU
3. Oklahoma
4. Florida
5. West Virginia
6. Ohio State
7. Texas
8. California
9. Rutgers
10. Penn State
11. Boston College
12. Oregon
13. Clemson
14. South Carolina
15. Alabama
16. Wisconsin
17. Arizona State
18. Kentucky
19. South Florida
20. Louisville
21. Cincinnati
22. Air Force
23. Hawaii
24. Kansas
25. Nebraska
(This post was last modified: 09-17-2007 10:43 AM by 3rd Wise Man.)
|
