Article posted on the Mean Green board by Steve.
Bowl projections come into focus
By TONY BARNHART
Cox News Service
Monday, October 18, 2004
ATLANTA — The first BCS standings of the 2004 college football season will be released today, and the debate on who will or should play in the Orange Bowl for the BCS national championship will begin.
In reality, the only BCS standings that matter are the final ones that will be released Dec. 5. But that small reality won't keep us from projecting the bowl lineup as we have just cleared the halfway point to the season.
Here is just one man's take on the bowl picture. Now discuss among yourselves.
BCS Bowls
— Orange (Jan. 4, BCS national championship): USC vs. Oklahoma. It was the game everybody wanted to see last season but was denied. The Trojans (6-0) should run the table. Oklahoma (6-0) still has tough games with Oklahoma State (Oct. 30) and Texas A&M (Nov. 6).
— Sugar (Jan. 3): Auburn vs. Miami. Auburn (7-0) appears to be the class of the SEC but still must finish with Georgia, Alabama and the SEC title game. Miami (5-0) dodged a big bullet against Louisville and still has road games at N.C. State (Saturday) and Virginia (Nov. 13).
— Fiesta (Jan. 1): West Virginia vs. Utah. West Virginia (5-1) will win the Big East, while Utah (6-0), currently ranked No. 9 out of the Mountain West, will be the first Coalition conference member to play in a BCS game. The Fiesta is not compelled to take Utah unless it is ranked in the top six of the final BCS Standings. Don't be surprised if the Fiesta takes a 10-1 Texas instead.
— Rose (Jan. 1): California vs. Wisconsin. If the Rose loses Pac-10 champ USC to the Orange, it gets to pick first in the rotation and will take California (4-1) if it finishes 10-1. Wisconsin (7-0) does not play Michigan. If the Badgers tie Michigan for the Big Ten title, they go to Pasadena because the Wolverines went last season.
New Year's Day
— Capital One: Tennessee vs. Michigan. Tennessee (5-1) loses in the SEC championship game to Auburn but gets rewarded with a trip to Orlando. Michigan (6-1) ties Wisconsin for the Big Ten title and gets the Capital One as a consolation prize.
— Outback: Georgia vs. Purdue, in a rematch of last year's Capital One Bowl, which the Bulldogs won in overtime. Georgia (5-1) could play its way back into the Capital One if it can win the rest of its games, which would include victories over Florida and Auburn.
— Gator: Florida State vs. Notre Dame. FSU (5-1) runs the table to finish 10-1 but can't overcome its loss to Miami on Sept. 6. Notre Dame (5-2), which could be 7-4 if it loses to Tennessee and USC, will still get the Big East's No. 2 bid because of the star-power matchup with Bobby Bowden.
— Cotton: Texas vs. LSU, two disappointed teams. Texas likely will finish 10-1 after losing to Oklahoma. LSU (4-2), the defending BCS champion, is still good, but not just good enough to win the SEC this season.
Others
— Chick-fil-A Peach (Dec. 31): Florida vs. Virginia. The Gators (4-2) finish 7-4 after losses to Georgia and Florida State and finally land in the Peach, where they should have been last season. Virginia (5-1) is good but not as good as Florida State and Miami, which will be their two losses during a 9-2 regular season.
— Liberty (Dec. 31): Louisville vs. Air Force. After taking Miami to the limit before losing, Louisville (4-1) will go on to win the Conference USA title. Air Force (3-3) still has some work to do to finish second (behind Utah) in the Mountain West. If the Fiesta spurns Utah, the Liberty could have its best matchup ever.
— Sun (Dec. 31): UCLA vs. Ohio State. The Bruins (4-2) go bowling in Karl Dorrell's second season. Ohio State (3-3), which has played in the Fiesta two straight years, is facing its first real test of manpower — or lack thereof.
— Music City (Dec. 31): South Carolina vs. Michigan State. After two straight years without a bowl trip, Lou Holtz gets the Gamecocks (5-2) back on track. Michigan State (4-3) is starting to turn it around after a shaky start.
— Silicon Valley (Dec. 30): Washington State vs. UTEP. UTEP coach Mike Price, who had a cup of coffee at Alabama, coaches against his old school. Price took the Cougars to the Rose Bowl twice.
— Holiday (Dec. 30): Arizona State vs. Texas A&M. Two programs on their way up. The Sun Devils have a great quarterback in Andrew Walter. Ditto for the Aggies, whose Reggie McNeal is making life a lot easier in College Station for coach Dennis Franchione.
— Emerald (Dec. 30): Oregon vs. BYU. Both of these teams need to hustle in order to keep this date. Oregon (3-3) has won three of its past four games. BYU (3-4) needs to win three of its last four games.
— Houston (Dec. 30): Arkansas vs. Texas Tech. The Razorbacks will barely squeak in at 6-5 and face a Texas Tech team (4-2) that has scored 70 points twice this season.
— Continental Tire (Dec. 30): Georgia Tech vs. Boston College. The Oct. 28 game with Virginia Tech at home is huge if the Jackets want to go bowling for an eighth consecutive year. Winner goes to Charlotte. Loser might go to Boise.
— Alamo (Dec. 29): Iowa vs. Missouri. Missouri (4-2) will win the Big 12 North but lose to Oklahoma in the conference championship game. The Tigers will fall to San Antonio for a matchup with an improving Iowa team that thumped Ohio State on Saturday.
— Insight (Dec. 28): Pittsburgh vs. Stanford. After a shaky start, Walt Harris has turned things around at Pitt (4-2), which beat Boston College on Saturday. Stanford's (4-2) claim to fame is that it led USC deep into the fourth quarter before losing.
— Independence (Dec. 28): Alabama vs. Nebraska. Alabama (5-2) must win one of its final four games with Tennessee, Mississippi State, LSU, and Auburn to go bowling for the first time since 2001. Nebraska (4-2) somehow will find a way to win two more games down the stretch to qualify.
— Motor City (Dec. 27): Toledo vs. Minnesota. Toledo (5-2) and Northern Illinois (4-2) are the best two teams in the MAC but they are in the same division. One will go to Detroit, the other to the GMAC Bowl in Mobile. Minnesota (5-2) has fallen flat after a 5-0 start but is still a talented team.
— MPC Computers (Dec. 27): Virginia Tech vs. Boise State. Boise State (6-0) could be undefeated and WAC champs when it plays this game at home on the blue rug. It will be a long trip for the Hokies (5-2), who probably could avoid it by beating Georgia Tech on Oct. 28.
— Hawaii (Dec. 24): Louisiana Tech vs. Memphis. Louisiana Tech (4-3) will finish second to Boise State in the WAC and earn a trip to Hawaii. Memphis (5-1), whose only loss is against UAB, gets a good trip as a reward for a good season.
— Las Vegas (Dec. 23): Wyoming vs. Navy. Because the Pac-10 gets two teams in the the BCS (Rose, Orange), the Pac-10 cannot fill all of its bowl commitments. Out of patriotic duty, the Las Vegas Bowl takes a Navy team (5-1), which has a good chance to go 9-2 or 10-1.
— Fort Worth (Dec. 23): Colorado vs. TCU. Conference USA is not particularly thrilled that TCU is jumping ship for the Mountain West. So they keep the Horned Frogs at home come bowl time. After everything that has happened at Colorado over the past year, coach Gary Barnett is happy to be going to any bowl.
— GMAC (Dec. 22): Northern Illinois vs. UAB. Potential MAC champ Northern Illinois (5-2) vs. a very good team from Conference USA. The only loss by UAB (5-1) has been to Florida State.
— Tangerine (Dec. 21): N.C. State vs. Oklahoma State. A great N.C. State defense vs. one of the best running attacks in the country from Oklahoma State.
— New Orleans (Dec. 14): North Texas vs. Southern Mississippi. It's been a tough year at North Texas (2-4) but the Mean Green bounces back to win the Sun Belt. Southern Mississippi (4-1) already has beaten Nebraska and has designs on another C-USA championship.
Tony Barnhart writes for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
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