SEC West Standings (as of 11-3-02)
LSU . . . . . (3-1) . . [ @ Kentucky, Alabama, Ole Miss, @ Arkansas ]
Auburn . . .(4-2) . . [ Georgia, @ Alabama ]
Arkansas . (2-3) . . [ @ South Carolina, @ MSU, LSU ]
Ole Miss . . (2-3) . . [ @ Georgia, @ LSU, MSU ]
MSU . . . . . (0-4)*
Alabama . . (4-1)**

Ole Miss still has a shot, though extremely unlikely, to take the division title. This would require Arkansas to lose one more, Auburn to lose both of their remaining SEC games, and LSU to lose at least 2 of their last 4 (one of which would have to be at the hands of the Rebels for the tie-breaker in that case). And of course, Ole Miss would have to go the rest of the way with Ws across the board.

Arkansas once again finds itself with a foot in the door (see last year's midseason resurgence after a pitiful start). This season's possibility once again hinges on a muchneeded winning streak. A good deal of help is also necessary. Auburn must lose another game (which is likely with the two SEC powerhouses of '02 still on the schedule) and LSU must lose at least 2 of their last 4 (one of which would have to be against UofA for tie-breaker purposes). Fortunately for the Hogs, their conference losses have come against 2 East Division teams and an ineligble Alabama squad. Not that these losses don't count, but they don't hurt as much as losses against eligble West Division teams.

The good news for Auburn is: a) they only have 2 more conference games to worry about; b) LSU still has to play 4 teams who are more than capable of pulling off the upset. The bad news is the 2 remaining games are between the hedges of Georgia and then on the plains against the highly pissed Crimson Tide.

LSU has the clearest path to Atlanta merely due to the fact they are in total control of their own destiny at this point. Their remaining games are equally spread amongst hostile and fertile territories but this season has shown the unpredictability of home matchups. The biggest drawback in LSU's chances is the amount of games left to be played. Complete focus and dedication is the key. An assload of luck wouldn't hurt either. Being the defending SEC Champion only enlarges the bullseye on LSU's collective chest's.

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*With four losses, MSU is the first team eliminated from the West Race. Even if they won out, Auburn would get the tie-breaker with victories over both MSU and LSU.

**Keeping in mind Alabama's ineligibility to play in Atlanta this December despite their outstanding performance so far this season. It's evident that Coach Fran's goal of the best West team sitting at home in December will likely be the case.
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::pats self on the back for being fairly impartial in the composition of this post::
Not bad for a 500th post, huh? Good luck to all the teams. Let's hope for safe competition in the most exciting division of the best conference in the NCAA. GO SEC!



<!--EDIT|cant_think_of_a_witty_name|Nov 3 2002, 05:26 PM-->

I think the West will be decided November 29th in Little Rock. LSU should beat Kentucky and Ole Miss, but I'd have to give Bama the edge in that game right now. That puts LSU at 5-2. Arkansas should have no problem with South Carolina and MSU. That puts Arkansas at 4-3. I think Auburn will lose to UGA and Bama, finishing at 4-4. Ole Miss loses to UGA and LSU, ending up at 3-5.

Winner of LSU/Ark game goes to Atlanta. (These were my preseason top 2 teams in the West. :D )

This is college football though, so I'm sure an upset will occur and kill my scenario.

Not a bad analysis, witty, but here's where I differ:

Quote:The good news for Auburn is: a) they only have 2 more conference games to worry about; b) LSU still has to play 4 teams who are more than capable of pulling off the upset. The bad news is the 2 remaining games are between the hedges of Georgia and then on the plains against the highly pissed Crimson Tide.

Correct, except Auburn plays the 'Dawgs in Auburn, not Athens. Historically, the visiting team in this series wins more often, but I still give the Tigers a good shot in this game. Georgia is pretty banged up, and Jordan-Hare is a pretty tough place to play, just ask LSU. (Well, it wasn't that tough for Arkansas, but you know what I mean.)[/QUOTE]

Quote:LSU has the clearest path to Atlanta merely due to the fact they are in total control of their own destiny at this point. Their remaining games are equally spread amongst hostile and fertile territories but this season has shown the unpredictability of home matchups. The biggest drawback in LSU's chances is the amount of games left to be played. Complete focus and dedication is the key. An assload of luck wouldn't hurt either. Being the defending SEC Champion only enlarges the bullseye on LSU's collective chest's.

LSU controls their own destiny, but they also must deal with the pressure of defending their title. This may not be easy with a rookie quartereback.

Quote:**Keeping in mind Alabama's ineligibility to play in Atlanta this December despite their outstanding performance so far this season. It's evident that Coach Fran's goal of the best West team sitting at home in December will likely be the case.

Yep, I hope ol' Franny boy can take some comfort in that. Alabama has done great this year, but you must pay the price for your crimes. Auburn had to deal with this in '93.

Quote:::pats self on the back for being fairly impartial in the composition of this post::
Not bad for a 500th post, huh? Good luck to all the teams. Let's hope for safe competition in the most exciting division of the best conference in the NCAA. GO SEC!

Yeah, good job man. Go Auburn and go SEC!

Quote:I think Auburn will lose to UGA and Bama, finishing at 4-4.

My prediction is that Auburn will win one of these two games and finish at 5-3, hoping for Bammer or the Hogs to beat LSU.

*?*?*?*not understanding why my quote boxes went all wrong*?*?*?*

amh4au...one point though

Say Auburn, LSU, and Arkansas all end up with 3 losses.

In that scenario, Arkansas goes to Atlanta, because the HOGS beat Auburn, and if they had only 3 SEC losses, also would have beaten LSU.

For Auburn to win the West, they have to win out their conference slate, have LSU lose two (Bama and UA), and have Arkansas lose to SC or Miss. State. Arkansas has the tie-break over Auburn, so you need to be only tied with LSU to advance.

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So overall, in short...

LSU controls their own destiny.

Arkansas has to win out (SC, MSU, LSU), hope LSU loses to Alabama as well, and hope either Bama or UGA beats Auburn. The Hogs have the tie-breaks over Auburn and Ole Miss.

Auburn needs what was above...win out their conference slate, have LSU lose two (OM, Bama, and UA), and have Arkansas lose to SC or Miss. State.

Ole Miss, at 2-3, needs to win out (LSU, UGA, MSU), have Auburn lose two (UGA and Bama), have LSU lose 2 (Ole Miss, either Bama or UA), and have Arkansas lose one (SC, MSU, LSU).

Very interesting weeks ahead
WPS



WPS



<!--EDIT|calling_the_hogs|Nov 4 2002, 05:34 PM-->

SEC West Standings (as of 11-17-02)
LSU . . . . . (4-2) . . [ Ole Miss, @ Arkansas ]
Arkansas . (3-3) . . [ @ MSU, LSU ]
Auburn . . .(4-3) . . [ @ Alabama ]
Ole Miss . . (2-4) [eliminated from contention]
MSU . . . . . (0-5) [eliminated from contention]
Alabama . . (6-1) [ineligible, yet clearly the best in the west]

Well, the pack has narrowed a bit and we truly have a race now.

LSU is still the team to beat. However, the state of Alabama has shown this to be very possible on the road or at home. If LSU wins out, they go to Atlanta. If they lose, things get more complicated.

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Here are the keys to the SEC-West:

LSU can afford to lose to Ole Miss if they can recover against Arkansas and Auburn loses to Alabama. Such a scenario would leave them with one less conference loss than Arkansas and Auburn.

Arkansas can win the West if they can beat MSU and LSU. They would then end the season with 3 conference losses but have the tie-breaker against LSU. At this point, the Iron Bowl would be insignificant due to Arkansas' tie-breaker against Auburn.

Auburn can still win the West if they can beat Alabama, if LSU loses at least one more, and Arkansas loses at least one more. At this point, they would own the tie-breaker against LSU and Arkansas would have 4 conference losses (rendering the Hog's victory at Auburn powerless).

whos_your_dawgy Wrote:I think the West will be decided November 29th in Little Rock. LSU should beat Kentucky and Ole Miss, but I'd have to give Bama the edge in that game right now. That puts LSU at 5-2. Arkansas should have no problem with South Carolina and MSU. That puts Arkansas at 4-3. I think Auburn will lose to UGA and Bama, finishing at 4-4. Ole Miss loses to UGA and LSU, ending up at 3-5.

Winner of LSU/Ark game goes to Atlanta. (These were my preseason top 2 teams in the West. :D )

This is college football though, so I'm sure an upset will occur and kill my scenario.

I'm sticking with this one.

That seems to be the most logical turn of events. Kind of what I had in mind during the original post. I think Ole Miss is gonna have their say in this matter. I hope MSU goes quietly into that good night (or early afternoon). Alls I know is I'm gonna book ass back to Sunflower next Friday morning so I can get some food and a nap before the Battle for Das Boot.