(01-13-2020 03:12 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-13-2020 02:46 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(01-11-2020 04:13 AM)ColumbusCard Wrote:  still dont see how a deal that nets teams $3-$4 million a year less than their perceived closest competitor erases all talk of potential MWC defection to the AAC. Especially considering requisite renegotiating of the AAC's contract such a defection would cause.

There is no talk of MWC defection to the AAC. That is board fantasy talk. For a school like San Diego State, they just got an increase in TV revenue from $1.1 million per year to $3.9 million. Boise State just got an increase from $2.9 million to $5.7 million. This helps a lot and they still have their Tier 3 rights to decide on, which could bring more revenue. Plus, their deal is only for six years. They could end up with two six year deals that are equal to or better than the AAC 12 year deal.

I don't see the MWC in competition with the AAC. The MWC is in a different time zone, a different region of the country. The AAC contract is good for the AAC, that model was not going to work for the MWC. The revenue per school of $7 million per school per year is good. The length of the agreement and being all-in on ESPN would not work for the MWC.

The MWC deal does not need to be dollar-for-dollar with the AAC deal. They just needed a significant increase in revenue and they achieved that. The real question, is it better to be all-in with ESPN or all-out with ESPN? I personally think it is better to be with ESPN, as the AAC is, but I could be wrong. Or it may not matter at all. I am going to be interested to see how that plays out for the MWC.

My sense is the MW got increase big enough to largely squash any real financial motivation to move to the AAC. That said, the front range guys---who are looking at 3.9 million a team (as well as earning two thirds of what conference mate Boise gets), might still consider the move as it they would almost double their income while really only having an incremental increase in travel costs. If a front range school has other motivations beyond financial (for instance, a desire to be more eastern leaning), then they might still make the move to the AAC despite the money difference having been reduced.

That said, I think the chances of a MW school moving to the AAC is very low at this point (as in darn near zero).

It does also put a dagger in the P6 narrative for the AAC along with the bowl agreements not taking a step up for the next cycle.

I suppose the next expansion by the AAC could be a grand bargain type deal w/UAB, St. Louis and Dayton to replace UConn's basketball value by committee while pushing down the A10 further.