(11-26-2019 01:38 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 12:07 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  

(11-26-2019 11:47 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  I don't think we'll see another Independent for awhile. But I think the ones we have may be there for awhile, as ending DIvision football would signal the P5 are not expanding for awhile -- the B12 may be safe after all.

I think if we see another Indy in the next 2/3 years it'll be another FCS school making a move up. NC A&T is my #1 DavidSt. pick.

The only other option for more Indies is if the AAC gets picked apart and teams like ECU, USF and Memphis are left holding the bag. They'd move to Indy and have 4/5/6 P5 teams on their schedule.

I don't see any Indy moving up from FCS. Nobody else has the Liberty legal team and bank account. When you start talking about small public schools with minimal endowments ... well that is DavidSt stuff. The NCAA is not going to give another waiver.There is nobody else as connected as Falwell nor anybody with as big a war chest or as ready to spend money on lawyers to get his way.

Rice or ODU are the only schools I could see going Indy. ODU would have to get in the A10 to make it feasible. Rice would need a Basketball conference. C-USA simply doesn't pay squat, and many schools are unhappy. But you need the resources and a landing spot for your Basketball. Divisionless football is looking pretty certain. The SEC and ACC are leaning toward schedules like 3-5, and I think the B1G is likely to do the same. That probably means no expansion, and no changes for the B12 or American. The most likely expansion I see is the MWC going back to Gonzaga and also BYU to add them in MBB after 2025. But beyond that nothing.

We all know C-USA pays nothing, that USM, Rice, UTEP and ODU are unhappy and have been looking for alternatives. But I don't see any for them. USM is so financially strapped it's obvious nobody wants them (Northern Illinois is similar in the MAC). UTEP is barely better than NMSU and in the same depressed market (El Paso really is a backwater), with no value. Rice does have a shot at being a replacement should say Colorado State leave the MWC, but that is about it for opportunity and something has to give first. I see similar for ODU should the A10 need a member (say Saint Louis jump somewhere, but where?) -- but ODU is also competing with a couple MVC privates like LUC. UAB would get interest from the MVC or others, but they are also resource strapped, and the undergrad school is pretty small, (it's Idaho size ... which is why they struggle financially in athletics).

I just don't see the opportunity and fit. So I think everyone stands pat.
Basketball would be the likely driver. Or in Rice's case a desire to be big time.

I think you are right. Although if an HBCU showed the financial plans to move to FBS, I can't see the NCAA denying them, especially if there are 6-7 Indys still out there.

UConn and UMass are indy because of Basketball
Army and Notre Dame are Indy because of tradition
BYU is Indy because of Pride
NMSU and Liberty are Indy because no one wants them.