So our stated goal as I understand it is to go to the NCAA Tourney and win a Game (advance to 32 - not just win a play-in game) within 5 years. I like the goal. It is Huge and bold. And ATTAINABLE.

So, I am starting this thread to address HOW to REALISTICALLY attain that goal.
Its a HUGE goal, that I think will require a HUGE number of changes to be realistically accomplished and not just HUGE talk.

How hard is this goal??? CAA Northeastern went to NCAA for 2nd time in Coach Bill Coen's 12 years there - has never won an NCAA T game. NO CAA team has won to advance to the 32 in a long time, most of those teams are no longer in the CAA. On a scale of 1-10 (with 10 being win the whole thing) I suppose its a 7.

First, let's look at teams that attained that goal in 2019: went to NCAA and won a game in the round of 64 to advance to round of 32. And a look at some metrics on those programs that might indicate how to get there, other than by dumb luck. I will include W&M in the metrics for comparison along with Northeastern which went to the Tourney but did not advance to 32. I think most of you know all this, or have a sense of it, but it is very telling. And gives us a roadmap of what is necessary to realistically progress towards the goal. GSR & FSR are grad rates from the 2011 cycle most recent available, and are for Mens Basketball. Only 3 D1 teams score 100/100 on GSR/FSR: Lehigh, Bucknell, & W&M. So Dane has good credentials to keep up the good GSR/FSR scores. But that is not the stated goal we are dealing with, and actually may reflect the challenge.

I provide the 2019 32 teams and their GSR/FSR rates and Coach salary (indication of budget, etc.) below, and I will provide solution/plan as well below that. I was tempted to note the Coaches/Programs in the 32 who have been sanctioned or are under review but opted not to, here goes:

2019 NCAA 2nd Rnd of 32 & W&M, Northeastern (neither made 32)
Team GSR/FGR Coach Salary of $1M

W&M 100/100
NorthEastern 83/69 N-461 ?
NCAA Overall 81/

Duke 100/57 Y
UCF 73/40 Y
Liberty 100/50 N-300 as asst before - undisclosed
VaTech 70/38 Y
Maryland 64/25 Y
LSU 89/31 Y
Minn 77/57 Y
MichSt 100/50 Y

Gonzaga 100/40 Y
Baylor 71/33 Y
Murray St 50/9 N-500
Fla St 83/64 Y
Buff 67/64 N - 342
Tex Tech 69/31 Y
Florida 75/40 Y
Mich 100/60 Y

Kentucky 83/17 Y
Wofford 86/46 N- 161
Ohio St 70/43 Y
Houston 75/17 Y
Auburn 64/36 Y
Kansas 100/21 Y
UNC 64/39 Y
Wash 100/60 Y

Tenn 89/42 Y
Iowa 82/62 Y
Villanova 100/45 Y
Purdue 89/67 Y
Oregon 33/21 Y
UC Irvine 64/47 N - 350+
UVA 78/43 Y
Okla 63/25 Y

What is apparent?
1. 27/32 teams paid their Coach at least $1M a year.
So: W&M needs to invest HUGE $ in coaching salaries and all that comes with it.
Many teams who have made that investment did not make it to the 32, but it is the clearest path to success.

2. Graduation Progress/Academics
Even assuming W&M and all other schools are equally challenging academically (some may want to differ) W&M still has a GSR/FSR rate that are outside the norm.
NO team made the 32 with those kind of rates.

SOLUTION/PLAN: Well this is gonna need a lot of work and all of you are welcome to chime in. However, I'll start:

1. Increase Funding to levels consistent with the benchmark for the stated goal. Math don't lie.

2. A. Adapt some admission standards for W&M.
B. Advocate for the NCAA to raise the bar for the NCAA Tourney academically and require a score of 80 for one of either the GSR or FSR, AND require that neither the GSR or FSR could be less than 50. WHAT WOULD THAT DO? Wreck havoc with the NCAA Tourney and its $ machine. And: of the 2019 32 teams only Duke, Mich St., Liberty, Fla. St., Mich, Wash, Iowa, and Purdue qualified. Spots then go to the next best eligible teams (just like the Bowl qualification for football) who would also have to have a winning record of better than .500 on the court.

3. Postseason NCAA Tourney bans need to be expanded for program violations as well to level the playing field.

In my opinion, W&M needs to 1. improve our program by investing in $ to get on the same court as others 2. change the court rules by getting the academics to matter.
Normally, I'd say good luck. But in theory it is college athletics.

I suggest that the closest in this is Wofford or Liberty. I'd suggest that Liberty benefits from being the highest $ invested in its conference, and Wofford benefits from a particular coach and conference slot as well. I'd also suggest that if you want to meet your goal you don't model yourself on the 2/32 teams or 5/32 ($<1M) but should model on the 27/32 as the target. Our goal is not to achieve through luck/dramatic admission changes/conference change. So the path to the goal is hard but clear.

The Goal is HUGE. The steps to get there are likewise imposing. Let's not just talk the talk, let's walk the walk and go climb the mountain. This analysis is free to W&M so they can put any $ saved into the program and start the Bold campaign to level the playing field. Can W&M compete with student athletes? Yes. Dane comes from Bucknell which also had the 100/100 rates. The problem is not with us, its with the NCAA, and the solution lies there as well. But the problem won't solve itself or stay static to get past.

Enjoy your weekend.