(08-31-2018 10:00 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-31-2018 09:26 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(08-31-2018 12:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Well if the objective is to please ESPN and find an amenable way to eliminate the LHN by having it absorbed into a larger functioning network under their umbrella then I only see two options. Texas either goes to the SEC where the LHN can become a channel for the SEC West while the current main channel is dedicated to the SEC East and the overflow channel remains and is utilized more often for both. Or, Texas does join the ACC as a partial member and the LHN remains but might be shared with Notre Dame so that the appeal and reach is tremendously broadened. The latter option would be fraught with potential issues and Texas's main rivals would be in the SEC.

That leads to the question of would the SEC expand beyond 16 to at least 18? If so then the operative question becomes who is #18? Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, or West Virginia?

I think West Virginia will be part of the ACC's final moves. I also think that Texas Tech has a greater upward potential than O.S.U., and Iowa State would be a bold move obliquely into the Chicago market with Kansas and Missouri to assist in the interest.

It poses some interesting dynamics. And perhaps at 20 it is more workable. By assuring Texas Tech and OSU we overcome most obstacles and add two more games a week that might draw the interest of the 32 million living within their region.

The only way the Big 10 would stay out of this would be if they truly had a line on the 9 PAC schools that connected their dots from Nebraska to Utah to Arizona an up the Coast and expanded their AAU influence.

The PAC and Big 12 then would be tied into the fan interest of the Big 10 and SEC and the ACC could be stabilized simply by monopolizing the East Coast. By use of divisions they could reinvigorate what was the Old Big East core.

I don't know that Texas would be terribly interested in the ACC, but it's really the only way to up the content value for that league and protect it from future raiding. I could also see Notre Dame agreeing to go all in if UT is in the fold which increases the value a little more.

This would certainly serve ESPN's purposes. I think they want a strong SEC and ACC to play off each other. The conference network investments would be solidified and they wouldn't have to allow any league to dominate TX. The diversity of markets across both leagues would help create cross-conference games and aid their marketing even more.

Let's say Texas committed to the ACC as long as Notre Dame agreed to go all in. That way, no one is getting a special deal of any type. There's your 16 and you don't create a situation where you need special approval from the other conferences to alter the postseason framework.

Oklahoma and Kansas fit well into the SEC and give us most of what we want. At that point, the ESPN conferences are pretty solid and both very rich. The B1G has nowhere to go and the PAC could take some leftovers if they want or they could stand pat.

I could easily see ESPN playing hardball with those leagues. The message could simply be that "we're not going to help you out if you're not fully committed to us." If ESPN is able to bend the situation completely in their favor then the B1G and PAC have no recourse other than to hope economic trends change. Maybe those leagues pick up some leftovers or maybe they don't. ESPN might not even care because they'll have the best platform for secondary and lesser leagues. At that, they'll be able to pay those leagues a smaller rights fee for the same content assuming individual schools don't get snapped up by the B1G and PAC.

There's a lot you could do with the LHN. ESPN could just buy out UT's side of the contract and "hook" them into the ACC Network already up and running. ESPN could use the infrastructure of the channel and alter the format...maybe turn it into a Spanish language feed for college sports.

This isn't really the ideal scenario for anyone other than ESPN, but it serves a lot of interests for all parties and that may be good enough to make everyone happy.

1. Texas gets top billing in the ACC which will yield them greater influence. They get a situation where all the other TX schools are relegated so their disconnection from their rivals doesn't sting as bad. Being that their key rivals are all in the SEC(ESPN managed), it means non-conference games with these foes will be easy to schedule, however, avoiding them on an annual basis reduces the pressure of direct comparison. If you get beat regularly by instate rival A&M or old rival Arkansas then that hurts your reputation more than competing against them on a semi-regular basis. That and the minor schools from TX will be eager to travel to Austin for exposure any time UT wants a softer opponent. They also don't have to follow the lead of Texas A&M and their ego could be salved by that.

2. Oklahoma gets the money, stability, and quality schedule they want. They keep a century old rival in Kansas on the schedule while almost certainly keeping the RRR as a non-conference game. Oklahoma State along with all the secondary TX schools are relegated and that helps the bottom line as well.

3. The SEC gets a blue blood football program and a bigger slice of TX in the process. The blue blood basketball program helps in other areas. They add 2 small markets, but both new schools have national fan bases so the quality of content increases even if the footprint doesn't grow by much. A&M gets to wear the badge of only SEC school in TX and there's no potential for a rift in the league should UT get uppity. The Border War is restored and that helps penetration in that region. The Big Ten's influence is also curtailed and that gives the SEC an edge.

4. For the ACC, they get greater security and prosperity. With 2 new football blue bloods competing for the conference title, their games gain greater value and the ACC Network has greater profitability most likely.

There is one major obstacle to this plan. Oklahoma has insisted from the beginning that Texas and Oklahoma State cannot be in different conferences from each other and the Sooners. Bedlam has to be played.

So the solution is either Texas or Oklahoma State have to be in a conference with the Sooners.

Now to do that and to still take Kansas that means we have to grow larger than 16.

I haven't found any wonderfully satisfactory ways to do that without 3 of the 4 members being Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.

It's the biggest reason I keep going back to 20 members and the addition of a 4th P conference once the PAC and Big 12 are absorbed.

Now a more natural way to work this would be simply move to 16, and let the remnants of the Big 12 join the AAC and then promote them. We wouldn't have just 4 P conferences by doing that, but it would be simpler.

I think the easier thing to think is that if the SEC has made a promise to Kansas, then the best 2nd addition with them would be Texas.

And Texas isn't going to want their minor sports to play by having to fly across the SEC to participate in the ACC.

At 16 I could see the Big 10 take Oklahoma and Iowa State, and the SEC take Texas and Kansas. West Virginia adds value to the ACC and reconnects their footprint.

What happens to the rest at that point is either the PAC expands and takes some, but probably not, or the best of them are absorbed into the AAC, or they reform and take the best of the AAC to build a new conference.

ESPN gets the two schools they have invested more in out of the Big 12 (UT & KU) The SEC capitalizes on Texas market and gets a huge hoops draw. Texas and Oklahoma keep the RRR, but Oklahoma has to use one of their early season Big 10 games to play OSU. But that becomes a Big 10 problem, not an SEC one. Why would the Big 10 take Iowa State? It's a rivalry game for Iowa and they are the only AAU school left to take as a partner to an Oklahoma school that will immediately become the 16th best academic school in the 16 member Big 10, uhm, last. Which means of course that the Big 10 presidents wouldn't dare take a second non AAU program with the Sooners.

Two obstacles. ND is unlikely to join the ACC in football absent a champs only, 4 team playoff.