(09-10-2014 08:33 PM)john01992 Wrote:  1. This theory died with the launch of the SEC network. it was however very realistic up until last month.

2. the SEC is one of just 2 P5 conferences that is plagued with the "Colorado dilemma." The fact of the matter is that no matter how you spin it, the SEC has a school that if given the opportunity, would leave for another conference in a heartbeat. I believe the Colorado Dilemma plagued the Big 12 from day 1 and no conference can really build themselves into a strong stable conference with that elephant in the room. That school is missouri and the only other schools who are in a similar situation are OU & WVU.

I think the 2 are actually the ACC and B12. For the reasons below.

FSU would leave for the SEC in a heartbeat. Maybe Clemson as well. There was a lot of smoke there a couple years ago. Some of those northern ACC schools might be tempted by the B1G, if an offer materialized. Even the B1G was getting feelers from FSU and OSU insiders say OSU was backing them. The ACC is likely to have financial pressure be the driver if it loses more schools.

I think MU will not even consider leaving the SEC for at least a couple decades, and then only if they really fall off drastically in FB and BB. MU really wanted the B1G once, but felt scorned and the SEC is their new darling. Plus, too many big donors were behind the SEC move and would close their wallets if they left it. Nobody else is leaving the SEC. The money gap is not there and the SEC is stable, and you don't leave your rivalries and history behind unless you are getting one or both.

For the B12, if state politics did not hold it together (KS, OK, TX), I think most B12 schools would leave for the B1G, SEC, or PAC if offered just for stability's sake. Most have no sure home, if UT decides to leave (even the TX schools have to have some concern if UT uses the A&M leaving alone card and has a UT grad for governor). Stability is the main driver for future B12 movement and was the biggest driver of the MU, NU, and CU defections (though money projections also played into it at the time as well) IMO.

The PAC is protected by geography or else they would have worries themselves. They are really on par with the B12 and ACC in interest and payout, but their timezone and isolation protect them.

The B1G is fine for now. They pay the most and have the longest history.