Your analysis of the Conf USA tv contract is as good as I have seen posted on one of these boards. I also, like the business side of college conferences. I have especially enjoyed learning about the issues that face the G5 conferences.

In relation to your thoughts about the next Conf USA contract, I think you raise some interesting and potentially troubling issues for Conf USA going forward in terms of its new contract. In particular the fact that CBS purchased AAC content this year instead of showing several Conf USA basketball matchups that it had the rights to should raise the eye brows of the Conf USA leadership. Also interesting, are the contracts that Conf USA signed with Fox and CBS in 2011 and 2010.

The current contract with Fox, for example, was signed in 2011, while UCF, ECU, Tulsa, Houston and Tulane were members of Conf USA. UCF, ECU, Tulsa and Houston, although not power teams, all have histories of being good solid mid major programs. In 2011, the market , Fox in this case, said that Conf USA was worth 7 million a year for football. How much of that worth was tied to Houston, UCF, ECU and Tulsa? Granted Southern Miss was an anchor school in Conf USA at the time and was and is a tremendous asset to the conference.

Also, the previous contract, before the one with Fox was signed in 2011, had belonged to ESPN. In 2005 ESPN paid roughly 21 million for Conf USA. ESPN sued Conf USA, because they claimed that had the right to match any deal by any new network that would bid for the tv rights of Conf USA in 2011. Fox doubled what ESPN had paid in the previous contract. What caused the bump in money from Fox? Is Fox willing to pay that amount again? Did their doubling of the ESPN contract pay off for Fox? Had Fox not placed a bid, is it reasonable to think that ESPN would have most likely paid a similar amount that they had in the previous contract. If precedence means anything, then the deal Conf USA signed with CBS in 2010, would indicate that ESPN would have paid roughly the same for the COnf USA tv contract it had in 2005.

Speaking of CBS , the deal that Conf USA signed with them 2010 was for about 7 million a year as well. This contract covers football, basketball and some other sports including baseball. In a SportsDaily news article dating back to 2010,( I will post the article below) the author quotes one source as saying that the 7 million figure showed essentially no increase in dollars from the previous 6 year deal Conf USA had signed with CBS before the new extensions. Remember this was at a time when conference payout structures from the networks were on the increase. Does the lack of raise from CBS over a 14 year period signal difficulty for CONf USA moving forward.

As stated earlier, of the real issues it seems to me for Conf USA going forward however, is that the conference replaced four perineal winning schools, and one school Tulane who has a potential great market in NO, with schools that earned very little while in the Sun Belt and teams and with teams that have had modest success in college sports. The real question going forward in terms of football is how much is ODU, Charlotte, North Texas, WKU, Middle Tenn , Fiu and FAU worth in terms of revenue to the tv networks. Couple this with the perception that Conf USA took a hit in competition in football, and you have a new contract that is going to be hard to predict its value. Food for thought.